Intrinsic value of Carrizo Oil & Gas, Inc. - CRZO

Previous Close

$12.37

  Intrinsic Value

$91.24

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+638%

Previous close

$12.37

 
Intrinsic value

$91.24

 
Up/down potential

+638%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of CRZO stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  10.80
  10.22
  9.70
  9.23
  8.81
  8.42
  8.08
  7.77
  7.50
  7.25
  7.02
  6.82
  6.64
  6.47
  6.33
  6.19
  6.07
  5.97
  5.87
  5.78
  5.71
  5.63
  5.57
  5.51
  5.46
  5.42
  5.37
  5.34
  5.30
  5.27
Revenue, $m
  1,181
  1,302
  1,428
  1,560
  1,697
  1,840
  1,989
  2,144
  2,304
  2,471
  2,645
  2,825
  3,013
  3,208
  3,411
  3,622
  3,842
  4,071
  4,310
  4,560
  4,820
  5,091
  5,375
  5,671
  5,981
  6,305
  6,644
  6,999
  7,370
  7,758
Variable operating expenses, $m
  148
  132
  116
  99
  81
  62
  43
  23
  2
  -20
  -344
  -368
  -392
  -418
  -444
  -472
  -500
  -530
  -561
  -594
  -628
  -663
  -700
  -738
  -779
  -821
  -865
  -911
  -960
  -1,010
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  476
  487
  497
  508
  520
  531
  543
  555
  567
  579
  592
  605
  618
  632
  646
  660
  675
  689
  705
  720
  736
  752
  769
  786
  803
  821
  839
  857
  876
  895
Total operating expenses, $m
  624
  619
  613
  607
  601
  593
  586
  578
  569
  559
  248
  237
  226
  214
  202
  188
  175
  159
  144
  126
  108
  89
  69
  48
  24
  0
  -26
  -54
  -84
  -115
Operating income, $m
  557
  683
  815
  953
  1,097
  1,247
  1,403
  1,566
  1,736
  1,912
  2,397
  2,588
  2,787
  2,993
  3,209
  3,434
  3,668
  3,912
  4,167
  4,433
  4,711
  5,002
  5,306
  5,624
  5,957
  6,305
  6,670
  7,053
  7,453
  7,873
EBITDA, $m
  1,192
  1,352
  1,520
  1,695
  1,877
  2,068
  2,266
  2,473
  2,688
  2,911
  3,143
  3,385
  3,637
  3,898
  4,171
  4,455
  4,752
  5,061
  5,383
  5,720
  6,071
  6,438
  6,823
  7,224
  7,644
  8,084
  8,545
  9,027
  9,533
  10,062
Interest expense (income), $m
  75
  88
  101
  114
  128
  143
  159
  174
  191
  208
  226
  245
  264
  284
  305
  327
  350
  373
  398
  423
  450
  478
  507
  537
  569
  602
  636
  672
  710
  750
  791
Earnings before tax, $m
  469
  582
  700
  824
  954
  1,088
  1,229
  1,375
  1,527
  1,686
  2,152
  2,324
  2,502
  2,688
  2,882
  3,084
  3,294
  3,514
  3,744
  3,983
  4,234
  4,495
  4,769
  5,055
  5,355
  5,669
  5,998
  6,342
  6,704
  7,082
Tax expense, $m
  127
  157
  189
  223
  257
  294
  332
  371
  412
  455
  581
  627
  676
  726
  778
  833
  890
  949
  1,011
  1,075
  1,143
  1,214
  1,288
  1,365
  1,446
  1,531
  1,619
  1,712
  1,810
  1,912
Net income, $m
  342
  425
  511
  602
  696
  795
  897
  1,004
  1,115
  1,231
  1,571
  1,696
  1,827
  1,962
  2,104
  2,251
  2,405
  2,565
  2,733
  2,908
  3,090
  3,282
  3,481
  3,690
  3,909
  4,138
  4,378
  4,630
  4,894
  5,170

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  3,526
  3,886
  4,263
  4,656
  5,066
  5,493
  5,937
  6,399
  6,878
  7,377
  7,895
  8,433
  8,993
  9,575
  10,181
  10,812
  11,469
  12,153
  12,867
  13,611
  14,387
  15,198
  16,045
  16,929
  17,854
  18,821
  19,833
  20,891
  21,999
  23,159
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  3,526
  3,886
  4,263
  4,656
  5,066
  5,493
  5,937
  6,399
  6,878
  7,377
  7,895
  8,433
  8,993
  9,575
  10,181
  10,812
  11,469
  12,153
  12,867
  13,611
  14,387
  15,198
  16,045
  16,929
  17,854
  18,821
  19,833
  20,891
  21,999
  23,159
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.335
  0.335
  0.335
  0.335
  0.335
  0.335
  0.335
  0.335
  0.335
  0.335
  0.335
  0.335
  0.335
  0.335
  0.335
  0.335
  0.335
  0.335
  0.335
  0.335
  0.335
  0.335
  0.335
  0.335
  0.335
  0.335
  0.335
  0.335
  0.335
  0.335
Average production assets, $m
  3,132
  3,452
  3,787
  4,137
  4,501
  4,880
  5,275
  5,685
  6,111
  6,554
  7,014
  7,492
  7,990
  8,507
  9,045
  9,606
  10,189
  10,797
  11,431
  12,092
  12,782
  13,502
  14,254
  15,040
  15,862
  16,721
  17,620
  18,560
  19,545
  20,575
Working capital, $m
  -237
  -262
  -287
  -314
  -341
  -370
  -400
  -431
  -463
  -497
  -532
  -568
  -606
  -645
  -686
  -728
  -772
  -818
  -866
  -916
  -969
  -1,023
  -1,080
  -1,140
  -1,202
  -1,267
  -1,335
  -1,407
  -1,481
  -1,559
Total debt, $m
  1,869
  2,119
  2,379
  2,652
  2,935
  3,231
  3,538
  3,857
  4,189
  4,534
  4,893
  5,265
  5,653
  6,056
  6,475
  6,911
  7,366
  7,839
  8,333
  8,848
  9,385
  9,946
  10,532
  11,144
  11,784
  12,454
  13,154
  13,886
  14,653
  15,456
Total liabilities, $m
  2,440
  2,689
  2,950
  3,222
  3,506
  3,801
  4,109
  4,428
  4,760
  5,105
  5,463
  5,836
  6,223
  6,626
  7,045
  7,482
  7,936
  8,410
  8,904
  9,419
  9,956
  10,517
  11,103
  11,715
  12,355
  13,024
  13,724
  14,457
  15,223
  16,026
Total equity, $m
  1,086
  1,197
  1,313
  1,434
  1,560
  1,692
  1,829
  1,971
  2,119
  2,272
  2,432
  2,597
  2,770
  2,949
  3,136
  3,330
  3,532
  3,743
  3,963
  4,192
  4,431
  4,681
  4,942
  5,214
  5,499
  5,797
  6,108
  6,434
  6,776
  7,133
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  3,526
  3,886
  4,263
  4,656
  5,066
  5,493
  5,938
  6,399
  6,879
  7,377
  7,895
  8,433
  8,993
  9,575
  10,181
  10,812
  11,468
  12,153
  12,867
  13,611
  14,387
  15,198
  16,045
  16,929
  17,854
  18,821
  19,832
  20,891
  21,999
  23,159
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.720
  1.770
  1.810
  1.850
  1.880
  1.910
  1.930
  1.960
  1.980
  2.000
  2.010
  2.030
  2.040
  2.050
  2.060
  2.080
  2.090
  2.090
  2.100
  2.110
  2.120
  2.120
  2.130
  2.140
  2.140
  2.150
  2.150
  2.160
  2.160
  2.170
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  342
  425
  511
  602
  696
  795
  897
  1,004
  1,115
  1,231
  1,571
  1,696
  1,827
  1,962
  2,104
  2,251
  2,405
  2,565
  2,733
  2,908
  3,090
  3,282
  3,481
  3,690
  3,909
  4,138
  4,378
  4,630
  4,894
  5,170
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  635
  669
  705
  742
  781
  821
  863
  907
  952
  999
  746
  797
  850
  905
  962
  1,022
  1,084
  1,149
  1,216
  1,286
  1,360
  1,436
  1,516
  1,600
  1,687
  1,779
  1,874
  1,974
  2,079
  2,189
Funds from operations, $m
  977
  1,094
  1,216
  1,344
  1,477
  1,616
  1,760
  1,911
  2,067
  2,230
  2,317
  2,493
  2,677
  2,867
  3,066
  3,273
  3,489
  3,714
  3,949
  4,194
  4,450
  4,718
  4,998
  5,290
  5,597
  5,917
  6,253
  6,604
  6,973
  7,359
Change in working capital, $m
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -78
Cash from operations, $m
  1,000
  1,118
  1,241
  1,370
  1,504
  1,644
  1,790
  1,942
  2,099
  2,263
  2,352
  2,530
  2,714
  2,907
  3,107
  3,316
  3,533
  3,760
  3,997
  4,244
  4,503
  4,773
  5,055
  5,350
  5,659
  5,982
  6,321
  6,676
  7,047
  7,437
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -301
  -333
  -367
  -403
  -440
  -479
  -519
  -561
  -605
  -650
  -697
  -746
  -797
  -850
  -905
  -962
  -1,022
  -1,084
  -1,149
  -1,216
  -1,286
  -1,360
  -1,436
  -1,516
  -1,600
  -1,687
  -1,779
  -1,874
  -1,974
  -2,079
New CAPEX, $m
  -305
  -320
  -335
  -349
  -364
  -379
  -394
  -410
  -426
  -443
  -460
  -478
  -497
  -517
  -538
  -560
  -584
  -608
  -634
  -661
  -690
  -720
  -752
  -786
  -822
  -859
  -899
  -940
  -984
  -1,031
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -606
  -653
  -702
  -752
  -804
  -858
  -913
  -971
  -1,031
  -1,093
  -1,157
  -1,224
  -1,294
  -1,367
  -1,443
  -1,522
  -1,606
  -1,692
  -1,783
  -1,877
  -1,976
  -2,080
  -2,188
  -2,302
  -2,422
  -2,546
  -2,678
  -2,814
  -2,958
  -3,110
Free cash flow, $m
  394
  465
  539
  618
  700
  786
  876
  970
  1,068
  1,170
  1,195
  1,305
  1,420
  1,539
  1,664
  1,793
  1,928
  2,068
  2,214
  2,367
  2,526
  2,693
  2,866
  3,048
  3,237
  3,436
  3,644
  3,861
  4,089
  4,327
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  236
  249
  261
  272
  284
  295
  307
  319
  332
  345
  358
  373
  387
  403
  419
  436
  455
  474
  494
  515
  537
  561
  586
  612
  640
  669
  700
  732
  767
  803
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  236
  249
  261
  272
  284
  295
  307
  319
  332
  345
  358
  373
  387
  403
  419
  436
  455
  474
  494
  515
  537
  561
  586
  612
  640
  669
  700
  732
  767
  803
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  630
  714
  800
  890
  984
  1,082
  1,184
  1,290
  1,400
  1,515
  1,553
  1,678
  1,807
  1,942
  2,083
  2,229
  2,382
  2,542
  2,708
  2,882
  3,064
  3,254
  3,452
  3,660
  3,877
  4,105
  4,344
  4,593
  4,855
  5,130
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -105
  -111
  -116
  -121
  -126
  -131
  -137
  -142
  -148
  -154
  -160
  -166
  -172
  -179
  -187
  -194
  -202
  -211
  -220
  -229
  -239
  -250
  -261
  -272
  -285
  -298
  -312
  -326
  -341
  -357
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  525
  603
  684
  769
  858
  950
  1,047
  1,148
  1,252
  1,362
  1,394
  1,512
  1,635
  1,763
  1,896
  2,035
  2,180
  2,331
  2,488
  2,653
  2,824
  3,004
  3,191
  3,387
  3,592
  3,807
  4,032
  4,267
  4,514
  4,773
Discount rate, %
  6.90
  7.25
  7.61
  7.99
  8.39
  8.81
  9.25
  9.71
  10.19
  10.70
  11.24
  11.80
  12.39
  13.01
  13.66
  14.34
  15.06
  15.81
  16.61
  17.44
  18.31
  19.22
  20.18
  21.19
  22.25
  23.37
  24.53
  25.76
  27.05
  28.40
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  491
  524
  549
  565
  573
  573
  564
  547
  523
  493
  432
  396
  358
  318
  278
  238
  201
  166
  134
  107
  83
  63
  47
  34
  24
  16
  11
  7
  4
  3
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Carrizo Oil & Gas, Inc. is an energy company. The Company is engaged in the exploration, development and production of oil and gas from resource plays located in the United States. Its operations are focused in proven, producing oil and gas plays in the Eagle Ford Shale in South Texas, the Delaware Basin in West Texas, the Utica Shale in Ohio, the Niobrara Formation in Colorado, and the Marcellus Shale in Pennsylvania. As of December 31, 2016, the Company's proved reserves of 200 million barrels of oil equivalent (MMBoe) were 64% crude oil, 12% natural gas liquids (NGLs) and 24% natural gas. As of December 31, 2016, it operated approximately 94% of the wells in Eagle Ford in which it held an interest. As of December 31, 2016, it held an average interest of approximately 85% in these operated wells. As of December 31, 2016, it owned leases covering approximately 309,200 gross (179,179 net) acres in the Eagle Ford, Niobrara, Utica and the Delaware Basin areas.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Carrizo Oil & Gas, Inc. (CRZO)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -1.2
Price to Sales 1.8
Price to Book 35
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 3
Price to Free Cash Flow -3.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 3.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -28.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -9.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 5760.9%
Total Debt to Equity 5760.9%
Interest Coverage -8
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -33%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -22.3%
Return On Total Capital -44.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -29.9%
Return On Equity -289.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -138.4%
Asset Turnover 0.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 72.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 76.3%
EBITDA Margin -86.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -67.9%
Operating Margin -122.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -133.8%
Pre-Tax Margin -152%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -135.2%
Net Profit Margin -152%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -129.8%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.8%
Payout Ratio 0%

CRZO stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CRZO stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1066 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Carrizo Oil & Gas, Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Carrizo Oil & Gas, Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CRZO stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 10.8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.9%, whose default value for CRZO is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Carrizo Oil & Gas, Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Carrizo Oil & Gas, Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CRZO stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 15.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $466 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CRZO stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Carrizo Oil & Gas, Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Carrizo Oil & Gas, Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CRZO stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CRZO are equal to 265.2%.

Life of production assets of 9.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Carrizo Oil & Gas, Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CRZO is equal to -20.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $980.904 million for Carrizo Oil & Gas, Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 91.222 million for Carrizo Oil & Gas, Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Carrizo Oil & Gas, Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.1 billion.

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