Intrinsic value of Canadian Solar Inc. - CSIQ

Previous Close

$22.07

  Intrinsic Value

$180.20

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+716%

Previous close

$22.07

 
Intrinsic value

$180.20

 
Up/down potential

+716%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of CSIQ stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  18.80
  17.42
  16.18
  15.06
  14.05
  13.15
  12.33
  11.60
  10.94
  10.35
  9.81
  9.33
  8.90
  8.51
  8.16
  7.84
  7.56
  7.30
  7.07
  6.86
  6.68
  6.51
  6.36
  6.22
  6.10
  5.99
  5.89
  5.80
  5.72
  5.65
Revenue, $m
  4,027
  4,729
  5,494
  6,321
  7,210
  8,158
  9,164
  10,227
  11,346
  12,520
  13,748
  15,031
  16,368
  17,761
  19,210
  20,716
  22,281
  23,908
  25,599
  27,356
  29,183
  31,083
  33,059
  35,116
  37,259
  39,491
  41,817
  44,244
  46,776
  49,418
Variable operating expenses, $m
  2,695
  3,151
  3,647
  4,184
  4,761
  5,376
  6,029
  6,719
  7,445
  8,207
  8,924
  9,756
  10,624
  11,528
  12,468
  13,446
  14,462
  15,518
  16,616
  17,756
  18,942
  20,175
  21,458
  22,793
  24,184
  25,633
  27,143
  28,718
  30,361
  32,076
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  879
  898
  918
  938
  959
  980
  1,002
  1,024
  1,046
  1,069
  1,093
  1,117
  1,141
  1,166
  1,192
  1,218
  1,245
  1,272
  1,300
  1,329
  1,358
  1,388
  1,419
  1,450
  1,482
  1,514
  1,548
  1,582
  1,616
  1,652
Total operating expenses, $m
  3,574
  4,049
  4,565
  5,122
  5,720
  6,356
  7,031
  7,743
  8,491
  9,276
  10,017
  10,873
  11,765
  12,694
  13,660
  14,664
  15,707
  16,790
  17,916
  19,085
  20,300
  21,563
  22,877
  24,243
  25,666
  27,147
  28,691
  30,300
  31,977
  33,728
Operating income, $m
  453
  680
  929
  1,199
  1,490
  1,802
  2,133
  2,484
  2,854
  3,243
  3,732
  4,158
  4,603
  5,066
  5,549
  6,051
  6,574
  7,118
  7,683
  8,271
  8,883
  9,520
  10,183
  10,873
  11,593
  12,344
  13,127
  13,945
  14,798
  15,690
EBITDA, $m
  652
  899
  1,170
  1,464
  1,781
  2,121
  2,481
  2,863
  3,266
  3,689
  4,133
  4,596
  5,080
  5,584
  6,109
  6,655
  7,224
  7,815
  8,429
  9,068
  9,734
  10,426
  11,146
  11,897
  12,680
  13,495
  14,346
  15,234
  16,162
  17,131
Interest expense (income), $m
  71
  188
  237
  291
  350
  414
  482
  555
  633
  714
  800
  891
  985
  1,084
  1,187
  1,294
  1,406
  1,522
  1,642
  1,768
  1,898
  2,033
  2,174
  2,320
  2,472
  2,630
  2,795
  2,967
  3,146
  3,333
  3,528
Earnings before tax, $m
  265
  443
  638
  849
  1,076
  1,320
  1,578
  1,852
  2,140
  2,443
  2,841
  3,173
  3,519
  3,879
  4,255
  4,646
  5,052
  5,475
  5,915
  6,373
  6,850
  7,346
  7,863
  8,401
  8,963
  9,549
  10,160
  10,798
  11,465
  12,162
Tax expense, $m
  72
  120
  172
  229
  291
  356
  426
  500
  578
  660
  767
  857
  950
  1,047
  1,149
  1,254
  1,364
  1,478
  1,597
  1,721
  1,849
  1,983
  2,123
  2,268
  2,420
  2,578
  2,743
  2,916
  3,096
  3,284
Net income, $m
  194
  323
  466
  620
  786
  963
  1,152
  1,352
  1,562
  1,783
  2,074
  2,316
  2,569
  2,832
  3,106
  3,391
  3,688
  3,997
  4,318
  4,652
  5,000
  5,362
  5,740
  6,133
  6,543
  6,970
  7,417
  7,883
  8,370
  8,878

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  6,968
  8,181
  9,505
  10,937
  12,474
  14,114
  15,854
  17,694
  19,629
  21,660
  23,786
  26,005
  28,319
  30,728
  33,235
  35,841
  38,549
  41,364
  44,289
  47,329
  50,489
  53,776
  57,196
  60,755
  64,462
  68,323
  72,349
  76,547
  80,927
  85,499
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  6,968
  8,181
  9,505
  10,937
  12,474
  14,114
  15,854
  17,694
  19,629
  21,660
  23,786
  26,005
  28,319
  30,728
  33,235
  35,841
  38,549
  41,364
  44,289
  47,329
  50,489
  53,776
  57,196
  60,755
  64,462
  68,323
  72,349
  76,547
  80,927
  85,499
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
Average production assets, $m
  834
  979
  1,137
  1,309
  1,492
  1,689
  1,897
  2,117
  2,349
  2,592
  2,846
  3,111
  3,388
  3,676
  3,976
  4,288
  4,612
  4,949
  5,299
  5,663
  6,041
  6,434
  6,843
  7,269
  7,713
  8,175
  8,656
  9,158
  9,683
  10,230
Working capital, $m
  2,014
  2,364
  2,747
  3,161
  3,605
  4,079
  4,582
  5,113
  5,673
  6,260
  6,874
  7,515
  8,184
  8,880
  9,605
  10,358
  11,141
  11,954
  12,799
  13,678
  14,591
  15,541
  16,530
  17,558
  18,629
  19,745
  20,909
  22,122
  23,388
  24,709
Total debt, $m
  4,391
  5,391
  6,482
  7,661
  8,928
  10,279
  11,713
  13,229
  14,824
  16,498
  18,249
  20,078
  21,984
  23,969
  26,035
  28,182
  30,414
  32,733
  35,143
  37,648
  40,253
  42,961
  45,779
  48,712
  51,766
  54,948
  58,265
  61,724
  65,333
  69,101
Total liabilities, $m
  5,741
  6,742
  7,832
  9,012
  10,278
  11,630
  13,064
  14,580
  16,175
  17,848
  19,599
  21,428
  23,335
  25,320
  27,385
  29,533
  31,764
  34,084
  36,494
  38,999
  41,603
  44,311
  47,129
  50,062
  53,116
  56,298
  59,615
  63,074
  66,684
  70,451
Total equity, $m
  1,226
  1,440
  1,673
  1,925
  2,195
  2,484
  2,790
  3,114
  3,455
  3,812
  4,186
  4,577
  4,984
  5,408
  5,849
  6,308
  6,785
  7,280
  7,795
  8,330
  8,886
  9,465
  10,066
  10,693
  11,345
  12,025
  12,733
  13,472
  14,243
  15,048
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  6,967
  8,182
  9,505
  10,937
  12,473
  14,114
  15,854
  17,694
  19,630
  21,660
  23,785
  26,005
  28,319
  30,728
  33,234
  35,841
  38,549
  41,364
  44,289
  47,329
  50,489
  53,776
  57,195
  60,755
  64,461
  68,323
  72,348
  76,546
  80,927
  85,499
Debt-to-equity ratio
  3.580
  3.740
  3.870
  3.980
  4.070
  4.140
  4.200
  4.250
  4.290
  4.330
  4.360
  4.390
  4.410
  4.430
  4.450
  4.470
  4.480
  4.500
  4.510
  4.520
  4.530
  4.540
  4.550
  4.560
  4.560
  4.570
  4.580
  4.580
  4.590
  4.590
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.176
  0.176
  0.176
  0.176
  0.176
  0.176
  0.176
  0.176
  0.176
  0.176
  0.176
  0.176
  0.176
  0.176
  0.176
  0.176
  0.176
  0.176
  0.176
  0.176
  0.176
  0.176
  0.176
  0.176
  0.176
  0.176
  0.176
  0.176
  0.176
  0.176

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  194
  323
  466
  620
  786
  963
  1,152
  1,352
  1,562
  1,783
  2,074
  2,316
  2,569
  2,832
  3,106
  3,391
  3,688
  3,997
  4,318
  4,652
  5,000
  5,362
  5,740
  6,133
  6,543
  6,970
  7,417
  7,883
  8,370
  8,878
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  199
  219
  241
  265
  291
  319
  348
  379
  412
  446
  401
  438
  477
  518
  560
  604
  650
  697
  746
  798
  851
  906
  964
  1,024
  1,086
  1,151
  1,219
  1,290
  1,364
  1,441
Funds from operations, $m
  392
  542
  707
  885
  1,077
  1,282
  1,500
  1,731
  1,974
  2,229
  2,475
  2,754
  3,046
  3,350
  3,666
  3,995
  4,338
  4,694
  5,064
  5,450
  5,851
  6,269
  6,704
  7,157
  7,629
  8,122
  8,636
  9,173
  9,733
  10,319
Change in working capital, $m
  319
  351
  383
  414
  444
  474
  503
  532
  559
  587
  614
  641
  669
  696
  724
  753
  783
  813
  845
  879
  913
  950
  988
  1,029
  1,071
  1,116
  1,163
  1,213
  1,266
  1,321
Cash from operations, $m
  74
  192
  324
  471
  633
  808
  997
  1,199
  1,415
  1,642
  1,861
  2,113
  2,377
  2,653
  2,942
  3,242
  3,555
  3,881
  4,219
  4,571
  4,938
  5,319
  5,715
  6,128
  6,558
  7,006
  7,473
  7,959
  8,467
  8,998
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -99
  -117
  -138
  -160
  -184
  -210
  -238
  -267
  -298
  -331
  -365
  -401
  -438
  -477
  -518
  -560
  -604
  -650
  -697
  -746
  -798
  -851
  -906
  -964
  -1,024
  -1,086
  -1,151
  -1,219
  -1,290
  -1,364
New CAPEX, $m
  -133
  -145
  -158
  -171
  -184
  -196
  -208
  -220
  -232
  -243
  -254
  -266
  -277
  -288
  -300
  -312
  -324
  -337
  -350
  -364
  -378
  -393
  -409
  -426
  -443
  -462
  -482
  -502
  -524
  -547
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -232
  -262
  -296
  -331
  -368
  -406
  -446
  -487
  -530
  -574
  -619
  -667
  -715
  -765
  -818
  -872
  -928
  -987
  -1,047
  -1,110
  -1,176
  -1,244
  -1,315
  -1,390
  -1,467
  -1,548
  -1,633
  -1,721
  -1,814
  -1,911
Free cash flow, $m
  -158
  -71
  28
  140
  265
  402
  551
  712
  885
  1,069
  1,241
  1,446
  1,662
  1,888
  2,124
  2,370
  2,627
  2,894
  3,172
  3,461
  3,762
  4,075
  4,400
  4,738
  5,091
  5,457
  5,840
  6,238
  6,653
  7,087
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  910
  1,000
  1,091
  1,180
  1,267
  1,351
  1,434
  1,515
  1,595
  1,673
  1,751
  1,829
  1,907
  1,985
  2,065
  2,147
  2,232
  2,319
  2,410
  2,505
  2,604
  2,708
  2,818
  2,933
  3,054
  3,182
  3,317
  3,459
  3,609
  3,768
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  910
  1,000
  1,091
  1,180
  1,267
  1,351
  1,434
  1,515
  1,595
  1,673
  1,751
  1,829
  1,907
  1,985
  2,065
  2,147
  2,232
  2,319
  2,410
  2,505
  2,604
  2,708
  2,818
  2,933
  3,054
  3,182
  3,317
  3,459
  3,609
  3,768
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  752
  929
  1,119
  1,320
  1,531
  1,753
  1,986
  2,228
  2,480
  2,742
  2,993
  3,275
  3,569
  3,873
  4,189
  4,518
  4,859
  5,213
  5,582
  5,966
  6,366
  6,783
  7,218
  7,671
  8,145
  8,640
  9,157
  9,697
  10,263
  10,854
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -194
  -214
  -233
  -252
  -271
  -289
  -306
  -324
  -341
  -357
  -374
  -391
  -407
  -424
  -441
  -459
  -477
  -495
  -515
  -535
  -556
  -578
  -602
  -626
  -652
  -680
  -708
  -739
  -771
  -805
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  558
  715
  886
  1,068
  1,261
  1,465
  1,679
  1,904
  2,139
  2,385
  2,618
  2,885
  3,161
  3,449
  3,748
  4,059
  4,382
  4,718
  5,068
  5,431
  5,810
  6,205
  6,616
  7,045
  7,492
  7,960
  8,448
  8,958
  9,492
  10,050
Discount rate, %
  8.70
  9.14
  9.59
  10.07
  10.57
  11.10
  11.66
  12.24
  12.85
  13.50
  14.17
  14.88
  15.62
  16.41
  17.23
  18.09
  18.99
  19.94
  20.94
  21.98
  23.08
  24.24
  25.45
  26.72
  28.06
  29.46
  30.93
  32.48
  34.11
  35.81
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  514
  601
  673
  727
  763
  779
  776
  756
  720
  672
  609
  546
  479
  411
  346
  284
  228
  179
  137
  102
  74
  52
  36
  24
  15
  10
  6
  3
  2
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Canadian Solar Inc. is a solar power company. The Company is a provider of solar power products, services and system solutions with operations in North America, South America, Europe, Africa, the Middle East, Australia and Asia. Its segments include module segment, energy development segment and electricity generation segment. It designs, develops and manufactures solar wafers, solar cells and solar power products. The module segment primarily involves the design, development, manufacturing and sale of a range of solar power products, including standard solar modules and specialty solar products, and solar system kits. Its energy development segment consists of solar power project development, engineering, procurement and construction services, and operation and maintenance services. Its electricity generation segment consists of holding solar power projects for the purpose of generating income from the sale of electricity to the local or national grid or other power purchasers.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Canadian Solar Inc. (CSIQ)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 19.6
Price to Sales 0.4
Price to Book 1.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -4.6
Price to Free Cash Flow -0.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -17.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 72.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 117.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0.6
LT Debt to Equity 69.9%
Total Debt to Equity 351%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 6%
Return On Total Capital 1.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 7%
Return On Equity 7.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.4%
Asset Turnover 0.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 14.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17%
EBITDA Margin 8.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.6%
Operating Margin 3.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 3.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.8%
Net Profit Margin 2.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.1%
Effective Tax Rate 20.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.2%
Payout Ratio 0%

CSIQ stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CSIQ stock intrinsic value calculation we used $3390 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Canadian Solar Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Canadian Solar Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CSIQ stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 18.8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.7%, whose default value for CSIQ is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Canadian Solar Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Canadian Solar Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CSIQ stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 67.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $860 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CSIQ stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Canadian Solar Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Canadian Solar Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CSIQ stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CSIQ are equal to 20.7%.

Life of production assets of 7.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Canadian Solar Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CSIQ is equal to 50%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1032.226 million for Canadian Solar Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 58.394 million for Canadian Solar Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Canadian Solar Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.3 billion.

RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating
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