Intrinsic value of Canadian Solar - CSIQ

Previous Close

$16.81

  Intrinsic Value

$158.78

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+845%

Previous close

$16.81

 
Intrinsic value

$158.78

 
Up/down potential

+845%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of CSIQ stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  18.80
  17.42
  16.18
  15.06
  14.05
  13.15
  12.33
  11.60
  10.94
  10.35
  9.81
  9.33
  8.90
  8.51
  8.16
  7.84
  7.56
  7.30
  7.07
  6.86
  6.68
  6.51
  6.36
  6.22
  6.10
  5.99
  5.89
  5.80
  5.72
  5.65
Revenue, $m
  4,028
  4,729
  5,495
  6,322
  7,211
  8,159
  9,165
  10,228
  11,347
  12,521
  13,750
  15,033
  16,370
  17,763
  19,212
  20,718
  22,284
  23,911
  25,602
  27,359
  29,186
  31,086
  33,063
  35,120
  37,263
  39,495
  41,822
  44,249
  46,781
  49,424
Variable operating expenses, $m
  2,710
  3,182
  3,697
  4,253
  4,851
  5,488
  6,165
  6,880
  7,633
  8,422
  9,247
  10,109
  11,009
  11,945
  12,920
  13,933
  14,986
  16,080
  17,217
  18,399
  19,627
  20,905
  22,235
  23,618
  25,059
  26,560
  28,125
  29,757
  31,460
  33,237
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  879
  898
  918
  938
  959
  980
  1,002
  1,024
  1,046
  1,069
  1,093
  1,117
  1,141
  1,166
  1,192
  1,218
  1,245
  1,272
  1,300
  1,329
  1,358
  1,388
  1,419
  1,450
  1,482
  1,514
  1,548
  1,582
  1,616
  1,652
Total operating expenses, $m
  3,589
  4,080
  4,615
  5,191
  5,810
  6,468
  7,167
  7,904
  8,679
  9,491
  10,340
  11,226
  12,150
  13,111
  14,112
  15,151
  16,231
  17,352
  18,517
  19,728
  20,985
  22,293
  23,654
  25,068
  26,541
  28,074
  29,673
  31,339
  33,076
  34,889
Operating income, $m
  438
  649
  880
  1,131
  1,401
  1,690
  1,998
  2,325
  2,668
  3,030
  3,411
  3,807
  4,220
  4,651
  5,100
  5,567
  6,053
  6,559
  7,084
  7,631
  8,200
  8,793
  9,410
  10,052
  10,722
  11,421
  12,150
  12,910
  13,705
  14,535
EBITDA, $m
  558
  789
  1,042
  1,317
  1,613
  1,930
  2,267
  2,624
  3,001
  3,397
  3,811
  4,245
  4,697
  5,169
  5,660
  6,171
  6,703
  7,256
  7,831
  8,429
  9,051
  9,699
  10,374
  11,076
  11,809
  12,572
  13,369
  14,200
  15,069
  15,976
Interest expense (income), $m
  71
  188
  237
  291
  350
  414
  482
  555
  633
  714
  801
  891
  986
  1,084
  1,187
  1,295
  1,406
  1,522
  1,643
  1,768
  1,898
  2,033
  2,174
  2,320
  2,472
  2,631
  2,796
  2,968
  3,147
  3,333
  3,528
Earnings before tax, $m
  251
  412
  589
  781
  987
  1,208
  1,443
  1,692
  1,954
  2,229
  2,520
  2,821
  3,136
  3,464
  3,806
  4,161
  4,531
  4,916
  5,317
  5,733
  6,167
  6,619
  7,090
  7,580
  8,091
  8,625
  9,182
  9,764
  10,371
  11,006
Tax expense, $m
  68
  111
  159
  211
  267
  326
  390
  457
  528
  602
  680
  762
  847
  935
  1,027
  1,124
  1,223
  1,327
  1,435
  1,548
  1,665
  1,787
  1,914
  2,047
  2,185
  2,329
  2,479
  2,636
  2,800
  2,972
Net income, $m
  183
  301
  430
  570
  721
  882
  1,054
  1,235
  1,426
  1,627
  1,839
  2,059
  2,289
  2,529
  2,778
  3,038
  3,308
  3,589
  3,881
  4,185
  4,502
  4,832
  5,175
  5,533
  5,907
  6,296
  6,703
  7,127
  7,571
  8,035

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  6,968
  8,182
  9,506
  10,938
  12,475
  14,115
  15,856
  17,696
  19,632
  21,663
  23,788
  26,008
  28,322
  30,732
  33,238
  35,845
  38,554
  41,369
  44,294
  47,334
  50,495
  53,782
  57,202
  60,762
  64,469
  68,331
  72,357
  76,555
  80,936
  85,509
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  6,968
  8,182
  9,506
  10,938
  12,475
  14,115
  15,856
  17,696
  19,632
  21,663
  23,788
  26,008
  28,322
  30,732
  33,238
  35,845
  38,554
  41,369
  44,294
  47,334
  50,495
  53,782
  57,202
  60,762
  64,469
  68,331
  72,357
  76,555
  80,936
  85,509
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
Average production assets, $m
  834
  979
  1,137
  1,309
  1,493
  1,689
  1,897
  2,117
  2,349
  2,592
  2,846
  3,112
  3,389
  3,677
  3,977
  4,289
  4,613
  4,950
  5,300
  5,663
  6,042
  6,435
  6,844
  7,270
  7,713
  8,176
  8,657
  9,160
  9,684
  10,231
Working capital, $m
  2,014
  2,365
  2,747
  3,161
  3,605
  4,079
  4,582
  5,114
  5,674
  6,261
  6,875
  7,516
  8,185
  8,881
  9,606
  10,359
  11,142
  11,955
  12,801
  13,680
  14,593
  15,543
  16,531
  17,560
  18,632
  19,748
  20,911
  22,125
  23,391
  24,712
Total debt, $m
  4,391
  5,392
  6,482
  7,662
  8,929
  10,280
  11,715
  13,231
  14,826
  16,500
  18,251
  20,080
  21,987
  23,972
  26,038
  28,185
  30,418
  32,737
  35,148
  37,653
  40,257
  42,966
  45,784
  48,717
  51,772
  54,954
  58,272
  61,731
  65,341
  69,109
Total liabilities, $m
  5,742
  6,742
  7,833
  9,013
  10,279
  11,631
  13,066
  14,581
  16,177
  17,850
  19,602
  21,431
  23,337
  25,323
  27,388
  29,536
  31,768
  34,088
  36,498
  39,003
  41,608
  44,317
  47,135
  50,068
  53,122
  56,305
  59,622
  63,082
  66,691
  70,459
Total equity, $m
  1,226
  1,440
  1,673
  1,925
  2,196
  2,484
  2,791
  3,114
  3,455
  3,813
  4,187
  4,577
  4,985
  5,409
  5,850
  6,309
  6,785
  7,281
  7,796
  8,331
  8,887
  9,466
  10,068
  10,694
  11,347
  12,026
  12,735
  13,474
  14,245
  15,050
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  6,968
  8,182
  9,506
  10,938
  12,475
  14,115
  15,857
  17,695
  19,632
  21,663
  23,789
  26,008
  28,322
  30,732
  33,238
  35,845
  38,553
  41,369
  44,294
  47,334
  50,495
  53,783
  57,203
  60,762
  64,469
  68,331
  72,357
  76,556
  80,936
  85,509
Debt-to-equity ratio
  3.580
  3.740
  3.870
  3.980
  4.070
  4.140
  4.200
  4.250
  4.290
  4.330
  4.360
  4.390
  4.410
  4.430
  4.450
  4.470
  4.480
  4.500
  4.510
  4.520
  4.530
  4.540
  4.550
  4.560
  4.560
  4.570
  4.580
  4.580
  4.590
  4.590
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.176
  0.176
  0.176
  0.176
  0.176
  0.176
  0.176
  0.176
  0.176
  0.176
  0.176
  0.176
  0.176
  0.176
  0.176
  0.176
  0.176
  0.176
  0.176
  0.176
  0.176
  0.176
  0.176
  0.176
  0.176
  0.176
  0.176
  0.176
  0.176
  0.176

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  183
  301
  430
  570
  721
  882
  1,054
  1,235
  1,426
  1,627
  1,839
  2,059
  2,289
  2,529
  2,778
  3,038
  3,308
  3,589
  3,881
  4,185
  4,502
  4,832
  5,175
  5,533
  5,907
  6,296
  6,703
  7,127
  7,571
  8,035
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  119
  140
  162
  186
  212
  240
  269
  300
  333
  367
  401
  438
  477
  518
  560
  604
  650
  697
  746
  798
  851
  906
  964
  1,024
  1,086
  1,151
  1,219
  1,290
  1,364
  1,441
Funds from operations, $m
  302
  440
  592
  756
  933
  1,122
  1,322
  1,535
  1,759
  1,994
  2,240
  2,498
  2,766
  3,047
  3,338
  3,642
  3,957
  4,286
  4,628
  4,983
  5,353
  5,738
  6,139
  6,557
  6,993
  7,448
  7,922
  8,417
  8,935
  9,476
Change in working capital, $m
  319
  351
  383
  414
  444
  474
  503
  532
  560
  587
  614
  641
  669
  696
  724
  753
  783
  814
  845
  879
  913
  950
  988
  1,029
  1,071
  1,116
  1,163
  1,213
  1,266
  1,322
Cash from operations, $m
  -17
  89
  209
  342
  488
  648
  819
  1,003
  1,199
  1,407
  1,626
  1,856
  2,098
  2,350
  2,614
  2,888
  3,175
  3,472
  3,782
  4,104
  4,440
  4,788
  5,151
  5,529
  5,922
  6,332
  6,759
  7,204
  7,669
  8,154
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -99
  -117
  -138
  -160
  -184
  -210
  -238
  -267
  -298
  -331
  -365
  -401
  -438
  -477
  -518
  -560
  -604
  -650
  -697
  -746
  -798
  -851
  -906
  -964
  -1,024
  -1,086
  -1,151
  -1,219
  -1,290
  -1,364
New CAPEX, $m
  -133
  -145
  -158
  -171
  -184
  -196
  -208
  -220
  -232
  -243
  -254
  -266
  -277
  -288
  -300
  -312
  -324
  -337
  -350
  -364
  -378
  -393
  -409
  -426
  -444
  -462
  -482
  -502
  -524
  -547
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -232
  -262
  -296
  -331
  -368
  -406
  -446
  -487
  -530
  -574
  -619
  -667
  -715
  -765
  -818
  -872
  -928
  -987
  -1,047
  -1,110
  -1,176
  -1,244
  -1,315
  -1,390
  -1,468
  -1,548
  -1,633
  -1,721
  -1,814
  -1,911
Free cash flow, $m
  -248
  -173
  -87
  11
  120
  241
  373
  516
  670
  833
  1,007
  1,190
  1,383
  1,585
  1,796
  2,017
  2,246
  2,486
  2,735
  2,994
  3,264
  3,544
  3,835
  4,139
  4,454
  4,783
  5,126
  5,482
  5,855
  6,243
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  910
  1,000
  1,091
  1,180
  1,267
  1,352
  1,435
  1,516
  1,595
  1,674
  1,751
  1,829
  1,907
  1,985
  2,066
  2,148
  2,232
  2,320
  2,410
  2,505
  2,605
  2,709
  2,818
  2,933
  3,055
  3,182
  3,317
  3,460
  3,610
  3,768
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  11
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  921
  1,000
  1,091
  1,180
  1,267
  1,352
  1,435
  1,516
  1,595
  1,674
  1,751
  1,829
  1,907
  1,985
  2,066
  2,148
  2,232
  2,320
  2,410
  2,505
  2,605
  2,709
  2,818
  2,933
  3,055
  3,182
  3,317
  3,460
  3,610
  3,768
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  674
  827
  1,004
  1,190
  1,387
  1,593
  1,808
  2,032
  2,265
  2,507
  2,758
  3,019
  3,289
  3,570
  3,861
  4,164
  4,479
  4,805
  5,145
  5,499
  5,868
  6,253
  6,654
  7,072
  7,509
  7,966
  8,443
  8,942
  9,464
  10,011
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -194
  -214
  -233
  -252
  -271
  -289
  -306
  -324
  -341
  -357
  -374
  -391
  -407
  -424
  -441
  -459
  -477
  -495
  -515
  -535
  -556
  -579
  -602
  -627
  -652
  -680
  -709
  -739
  -771
  -805
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  479
  613
  771
  938
  1,116
  1,304
  1,501
  1,708
  1,924
  2,150
  2,384
  2,628
  2,882
  3,146
  3,420
  3,705
  4,002
  4,310
  4,631
  4,964
  5,312
  5,674
  6,052
  6,445
  6,857
  7,286
  7,734
  8,203
  8,693
  9,206
Discount rate, %
  8.70
  9.14
  9.59
  10.07
  10.57
  11.10
  11.66
  12.24
  12.85
  13.50
  14.17
  14.88
  15.62
  16.41
  17.23
  18.09
  18.99
  19.94
  20.94
  21.98
  23.08
  24.24
  25.45
  26.72
  28.06
  29.46
  30.93
  32.48
  34.11
  35.81
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  441
  515
  585
  639
  675
  693
  694
  678
  648
  606
  555
  497
  437
  375
  315
  259
  208
  163
  125
  93
  68
  48
  33
  22
  14
  9
  5
  3
  2
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9

Canadian Solar Inc. is a solar power company. The Company is a provider of solar power products, services and system solutions with operations in North America, South America, Europe, Africa, the Middle East, Australia and Asia. Its segments include module segment, energy development segment and electricity generation segment. It designs, develops and manufactures solar wafers, solar cells and solar power products. The module segment primarily involves the design, development, manufacturing and sale of a range of solar power products, including standard solar modules and specialty solar products, and solar system kits. Its energy development segment consists of solar power project development, engineering, procurement and construction services, and operation and maintenance services. Its electricity generation segment consists of holding solar power projects for the purpose of generating income from the sale of electricity to the local or national grid or other power purchasers.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 15
Price to Sales 0.3
Price to Book 1.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -3.5
Price to Free Cash Flow -0.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -17.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 72.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 117.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0.6
LT Debt to Equity 69.9%
Total Debt to Equity 351%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 6%
Return On Total Capital 1.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 7%
Return On Equity 7.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.4%
Asset Turnover 0.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 14.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17%
EBITDA Margin 8.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.6%
Operating Margin 3.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 3.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.8%
Net Profit Margin 2.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.1%
Effective Tax Rate 20.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.2%
Payout Ratio 0%

CSIQ stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CSIQ stock intrinsic value calculation we used $3390.393 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Canadian Solar. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Canadian Solar. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CSIQ stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 18.8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.7%, whose default value for CSIQ is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Canadian Solar, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Canadian Solar.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CSIQ stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 67.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $860 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CSIQ stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Canadian Solar.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Canadian Solar. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CSIQ stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CSIQ are equal to 20.7%.

Life of production assets of 7.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Canadian Solar operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CSIQ is equal to 50%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1032.226 million for Canadian Solar - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 58.582 million for Canadian Solar is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Canadian Solar at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.0 billion.

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