Intrinsic value of Canadian Solar - CSIQ

Previous Close

$12.78

  Intrinsic Value

$4.64

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-64%

Previous close

$12.78

 
Intrinsic value

$4.64

 
Up/down potential

-64%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of CSIQ stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  2,910
  2,977
  3,054
  3,139
  3,235
  3,339
  3,453
  3,576
  3,708
  3,851
  4,003
  4,165
  4,338
  4,522
  4,717
  4,924
  5,143
  5,374
  5,619
  5,877
  6,149
  6,437
  6,740
  7,059
  7,395
  7,748
  8,121
  8,513
  8,925
  9,359
Variable operating expenses, $m
  2,180
  2,230
  2,287
  2,351
  2,422
  2,501
  2,586
  2,678
  2,777
  2,884
  2,996
  3,118
  3,247
  3,385
  3,531
  3,685
  3,849
  4,022
  4,205
  4,399
  4,602
  4,817
  5,044
  5,283
  5,534
  5,799
  6,078
  6,371
  6,680
  7,004
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  650
  664
  679
  694
  709
  725
  741
  757
  774
  791
  808
  826
  844
  863
  881
  901
  921
  941
  962
  983
  1,004
  1,027
  1,049
  1,072
  1,096
  1,120
  1,145
  1,170
  1,195
  1,222
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,830
  2,894
  2,966
  3,045
  3,131
  3,226
  3,327
  3,435
  3,551
  3,675
  3,804
  3,944
  4,091
  4,248
  4,412
  4,586
  4,770
  4,963
  5,167
  5,382
  5,606
  5,844
  6,093
  6,355
  6,630
  6,919
  7,223
  7,541
  7,875
  8,226
Operating income, $m
  80
  83
  88
  94
  103
  114
  126
  141
  158
  176
  199
  222
  247
  275
  305
  338
  373
  411
  452
  496
  543
  593
  646
  703
  764
  829
  898
  972
  1,050
  1,133
EBITDA, $m
  195
  200
  207
  217
  230
  244
  262
  281
  303
  327
  354
  383
  415
  450
  488
  528
  572
  619
  669
  723
  780
  842
  907
  977
  1,051
  1,129
  1,213
  1,301
  1,395
  1,495
Interest expense (income), $m
  71
  143
  148
  153
  160
  167
  175
  184
  194
  205
  216
  228
  241
  255
  270
  285
  302
  320
  338
  358
  379
  401
  425
  449
  475
  502
  531
  561
  593
  627
  662
Earnings before tax, $m
  -62
  -65
  -66
  -66
  -64
  -62
  -58
  -53
  -47
  -39
  -29
  -19
  -7
  5
  20
  36
  53
  73
  94
  116
  141
  168
  197
  228
  262
  298
  337
  379
  423
  471
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  5
  10
  14
  20
  25
  31
  38
  45
  53
  62
  71
  81
  91
  102
  114
  127
Net income, $m
  -62
  -65
  -66
  -66
  -64
  -62
  -58
  -53
  -47
  -39
  -29
  -19
  -7
  4
  14
  26
  39
  53
  68
  85
  103
  123
  144
  167
  191
  218
  246
  276
  309
  344

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  5,511
  5,638
  5,783
  5,946
  6,126
  6,324
  6,539
  6,772
  7,024
  7,293
  7,581
  7,889
  8,217
  8,565
  8,934
  9,326
  9,740
  10,179
  10,642
  11,131
  11,647
  12,191
  12,764
  13,369
  14,005
  14,675
  15,380
  16,123
  16,903
  17,725
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  5,511
  5,638
  5,783
  5,946
  6,126
  6,324
  6,539
  6,772
  7,024
  7,293
  7,581
  7,889
  8,217
  8,565
  8,934
  9,326
  9,740
  10,179
  10,642
  11,131
  11,647
  12,191
  12,764
  13,369
  14,005
  14,675
  15,380
  16,123
  16,903
  17,725
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
Average production assets, $m
  1,126
  1,152
  1,182
  1,215
  1,252
  1,292
  1,336
  1,384
  1,435
  1,490
  1,549
  1,612
  1,679
  1,750
  1,826
  1,906
  1,990
  2,080
  2,174
  2,274
  2,380
  2,491
  2,608
  2,732
  2,862
  2,999
  3,143
  3,294
  3,454
  3,622
Working capital, $m
  -489
  -500
  -513
  -527
  -543
  -561
  -580
  -601
  -623
  -647
  -673
  -700
  -729
  -760
  -793
  -827
  -864
  -903
  -944
  -987
  -1,033
  -1,081
  -1,132
  -1,186
  -1,242
  -1,302
  -1,364
  -1,430
  -1,499
  -1,572
Total debt, $m
  2,733
  2,839
  2,960
  3,096
  3,247
  3,412
  3,592
  3,787
  3,997
  4,223
  4,464
  4,721
  4,995
  5,286
  5,595
  5,922
  6,269
  6,635
  7,022
  7,431
  7,862
  8,317
  8,796
  9,302
  9,834
  10,394
  10,984
  11,604
  12,257
  12,943
Total liabilities, $m
  4,608
  4,714
  4,835
  4,971
  5,121
  5,287
  5,467
  5,662
  5,872
  6,097
  6,338
  6,595
  6,869
  7,160
  7,469
  7,796
  8,143
  8,509
  8,897
  9,305
  9,737
  10,191
  10,671
  11,176
  11,708
  12,268
  12,858
  13,478
  14,131
  14,818
Total equity, $m
  904
  925
  948
  975
  1,005
  1,037
  1,072
  1,111
  1,152
  1,196
  1,243
  1,294
  1,348
  1,405
  1,465
  1,529
  1,597
  1,669
  1,745
  1,825
  1,910
  1,999
  2,093
  2,192
  2,297
  2,407
  2,522
  2,644
  2,772
  2,907
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  5,512
  5,639
  5,783
  5,946
  6,126
  6,324
  6,539
  6,773
  7,024
  7,293
  7,581
  7,889
  8,217
  8,565
  8,934
  9,325
  9,740
  10,178
  10,642
  11,130
  11,647
  12,190
  12,764
  13,368
  14,005
  14,675
  15,380
  16,122
  16,903
  17,725
Debt-to-equity ratio
  3.020
  3.070
  3.120
  3.180
  3.230
  3.290
  3.350
  3.410
  3.470
  3.530
  3.590
  3.650
  3.710
  3.760
  3.820
  3.870
  3.920
  3.970
  4.020
  4.070
  4.120
  4.160
  4.200
  4.240
  4.280
  4.320
  4.350
  4.390
  4.420
  4.450
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.164
  0.164
  0.164
  0.164
  0.164
  0.164
  0.164
  0.164
  0.164
  0.164
  0.164
  0.164
  0.164
  0.164
  0.164
  0.164
  0.164
  0.164
  0.164
  0.164
  0.164
  0.164
  0.164
  0.164
  0.164
  0.164
  0.164
  0.164
  0.164
  0.164

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -62
  -65
  -66
  -66
  -64
  -62
  -58
  -53
  -47
  -39
  -29
  -19
  -7
  4
  14
  26
  39
  53
  68
  85
  103
  123
  144
  167
  191
  218
  246
  276
  309
  344
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  114
  117
  120
  123
  127
  131
  135
  140
  145
  151
  155
  161
  168
  175
  183
  191
  199
  208
  217
  227
  238
  249
  261
  273
  286
  300
  314
  329
  345
  362
Funds from operations, $m
  52
  52
  54
  58
  63
  69
  77
  87
  98
  111
  126
  142
  160
  179
  197
  217
  238
  261
  286
  312
  341
  372
  405
  440
  478
  518
  560
  606
  654
  706
Change in working capital, $m
  -10
  -11
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -73
Cash from operations, $m
  61
  63
  67
  72
  79
  87
  96
  108
  121
  135
  151
  170
  189
  210
  230
  251
  275
  300
  327
  356
  387
  420
  456
  494
  534
  577
  623
  672
  724
  779
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -110
  -113
  -115
  -118
  -121
  -125
  -129
  -134
  -138
  -144
  -149
  -155
  -161
  -168
  -175
  -183
  -191
  -199
  -208
  -217
  -227
  -238
  -249
  -261
  -273
  -286
  -300
  -314
  -329
  -345
New CAPEX, $m
  -22
  -26
  -30
  -33
  -37
  -40
  -44
  -48
  -51
  -55
  -59
  -63
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -80
  -85
  -90
  -95
  -100
  -105
  -111
  -117
  -123
  -130
  -137
  -144
  -152
  -160
  -168
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -132
  -139
  -145
  -151
  -158
  -165
  -173
  -182
  -189
  -199
  -208
  -218
  -228
  -239
  -250
  -263
  -276
  -289
  -303
  -317
  -332
  -349
  -366
  -384
  -403
  -423
  -444
  -466
  -489
  -513
Free cash flow, $m
  -71
  -75
  -78
  -79
  -80
  -79
  -77
  -74
  -69
  -63
  -56
  -48
  -39
  -29
  -21
  -11
  -1
  11
  24
  38
  54
  71
  89
  109
  131
  154
  179
  206
  235
  265
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  86
  106
  121
  136
  151
  165
  180
  195
  210
  225
  241
  257
  274
  291
  309
  327
  346
  366
  387
  409
  431
  455
  479
  505
  532
  560
  590
  620
  653
  687
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  81
  85
  89
  92
  94
  94
  93
  91
  88
  84
  76
  69
  61
  53
  46
  38
  29
  19
  8
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  167
  191
  210
  228
  245
  259
  273
  286
  298
  309
  317
  326
  335
  344
  355
  365
  375
  385
  395
  409
  431
  455
  479
  505
  532
  560
  590
  620
  653
  687
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  96
  116
  133
  149
  165
  181
  196
  213
  229
  245
  261
  278
  296
  315
  334
  354
  375
  397
  419
  447
  485
  526
  569
  614
  663
  714
  769
  826
  887
  952
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -92
  -94
  -94
  -93
  -91
  -88
  -84
  -76
  -69
  -61
  -57
  -61
  -64
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -85
  -89
  -94
  -99
  -104
  -110
  -116
  -122
  -128
  -135
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
Cash available for distribution, $m
  15
  31
  43
  57
  71
  86
  103
  121
  141
  162
  185
  209
  235
  258
  274
  290
  307
  325
  343
  367
  401
  437
  475
  515
  558
  604
  653
  705
  759
  817
Discount rate, %
  9.20
  9.66
  10.14
  10.65
  11.18
  11.74
  12.33
  12.95
  13.59
  14.27
  14.99
  15.74
  16.52
  17.35
  18.22
  19.13
  20.08
  21.09
  22.14
  23.25
  24.41
  25.63
  26.91
  28.26
  29.67
  31.15
  32.71
  34.35
  36.07
  37.87
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  14
  26
  32
  38
  42
  44
  46
  46
  45
  43
  40
  36
  32
  27
  22
  18
  14
  10
  8
  6
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  90.1
  81.0
  72.6
  65.0
  58.3
  52.5
  47.4
  43.0
  39.3
  36.2
  33.6
  31.5
  29.8
  28.5
  27.4
  26.6
  26.0
  25.6
  25.5
  25.5
  25.5
  25.5
  25.5
  25.5
  25.5
  25.5
  25.5
  25.5
  25.5
  25.5

Canadian Solar Inc. is a solar power company. The Company is a provider of solar power products, services and system solutions with operations in North America, South America, Europe, Africa, the Middle East, Australia and Asia. Its segments include module segment, energy development segment and electricity generation segment. It designs, develops and manufactures solar wafers, solar cells and solar power products. The module segment primarily involves the design, development, manufacturing and sale of a range of solar power products, including standard solar modules and specialty solar products, and solar system kits. Its energy development segment consists of solar power project development, engineering, procurement and construction services, and operation and maintenance services. Its electricity generation segment consists of holding solar power projects for the purpose of generating income from the sale of electricity to the local or national grid or other power purchasers.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 11.4
Price to Sales 0.3
Price to Book 0.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -2.7
Price to Free Cash Flow -0.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -17.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 72.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 117.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0.6
LT Debt to Equity 69.9%
Total Debt to Equity 351%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 6%
Return On Total Capital 1.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 7%
Return On Equity 7.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.4%
Asset Turnover 0.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 14.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17%
EBITDA Margin 8.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.6%
Operating Margin 3.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 3.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.8%
Net Profit Margin 2.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.1%
Effective Tax Rate 20.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.2%
Payout Ratio 0%

CSIQ stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CSIQ stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2853 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Canadian Solar. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Canadian Solar. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CSIQ stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 9.2%, whose default value for CSIQ is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Canadian Solar, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Canadian Solar.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CSIQ stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 74.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $636 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CSIQ stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Canadian Solar.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Canadian Solar. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CSIQ stock is equal to 0.3%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CSIQ are equal to 38.7%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Canadian Solar operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CSIQ is equal to -16.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $885 million for Canadian Solar - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 58 million for Canadian Solar is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Canadian Solar at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.7 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Are Canadian Solar Incs (NASDAQ:CSIQ) Interest Costs Too High?   [Jun-23-18 10:10AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ This Could Be Solar Energy's Next Big Leap Forward   [Jun-22-18 08:20AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Canadian Solar (CSIQ) Enters Oversold Territory   [Jun-07-18 06:54AM  Zacks]
▶ At $16.89, Is It Time To Buy Canadian Solar Inc (NASDAQ:CSIQ)?   [May-31-18 02:26PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ New Strong Buy Stocks for May 21st   [May-21-18 10:57AM  Zacks]
▶ Is Canadian Solar Inc. a Buy?   [Apr-16-18 09:03PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Canadian Solar Awarded 364 MWp Solar Projects in Brazil   [Apr-10-18 07:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Four Solar Stocks to Buy Now   [Mar-24-18 11:37PM  Insider Monkey]
▶ Why Solar Stocks Have Popped This Week   [Mar-22-18 07:19AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Canadian Solar posts 4Q profit   [Mar-20-18 05:23PM  Associated Press]
▶ Is Canadian Solar Inc. a Buy?   [Jan-23-18 09:34AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Will 2018 Be Canadian Solar Inc.'s Best Year Yet?   [Jan-18-18 09:02AM  Motley Fool]
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