Intrinsic value of Castlight Health Cl B - CSLT

Previous Close

$2.40

  Intrinsic Value

$0.29

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-88%

Previous close

$2.40

 
Intrinsic value

$0.29

 
Up/down potential

-88%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of CSLT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  15.80
  14.72
  13.75
  12.87
  12.09
  11.38
  10.74
  10.17
  9.65
  9.18
  8.77
  8.39
  8.05
  7.75
  7.47
  7.22
  7.00
  6.80
  6.62
  6.46
  6.31
  6.18
  6.06
  5.96
  5.86
  5.78
  5.70
  5.63
  5.57
  5.51
Revenue, $m
  152
  175
  199
  224
  251
  280
  310
  341
  374
  409
  445
  482
  521
  561
  603
  646
  692
  739
  788
  839
  891
  947
  1,004
  1,064
  1,126
  1,191
  1,259
  1,330
  1,404
  1,481
Variable operating expenses, $m
  165
  188
  213
  238
  266
  295
  325
  357
  391
  426
  451
  488
  528
  569
  611
  655
  701
  749
  798
  850
  904
  960
  1,018
  1,078
  1,142
  1,208
  1,276
  1,348
  1,423
  1,502
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  51
  52
  53
  55
  56
  57
  58
  60
  61
  62
  64
  65
  66
  68
  69
  71
  72
  74
  76
  77
  79
  81
  82
  84
  86
  88
  90
  92
  94
  96
Total operating expenses, $m
  216
  240
  266
  293
  322
  352
  383
  417
  452
  488
  515
  553
  594
  637
  680
  726
  773
  823
  874
  927
  983
  1,041
  1,100
  1,162
  1,228
  1,296
  1,366
  1,440
  1,517
  1,598
Operating income, $m
  -64
  -66
  -67
  -69
  -70
  -72
  -74
  -75
  -77
  -79
  -70
  -72
  -74
  -76
  -78
  -80
  -82
  -84
  -86
  -89
  -91
  -94
  -96
  -99
  -102
  -104
  -107
  -110
  -113
  -116
EBITDA, $m
  -49
  -50
  -51
  -52
  -52
  -53
  -54
  -55
  -56
  -57
  -57
  -58
  -59
  -60
  -61
  -62
  -63
  -64
  -65
  -66
  -67
  -68
  -69
  -70
  -71
  -72
  -73
  -74
  -75
  -76
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  1
  2
  2
  3
  4
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  14
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  22
  23
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
Earnings before tax, $m
  -65
  -67
  -69
  -71
  -73
  -76
  -78
  -81
  -83
  -86
  -78
  -81
  -84
  -87
  -90
  -93
  -97
  -100
  -104
  -108
  -111
  -115
  -120
  -124
  -128
  -133
  -137
  -142
  -147
  -153
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -65
  -67
  -69
  -71
  -73
  -76
  -78
  -81
  -83
  -86
  -78
  -81
  -84
  -87
  -90
  -93
  -97
  -100
  -104
  -108
  -111
  -115
  -120
  -124
  -128
  -133
  -137
  -142
  -147
  -153

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  283
  325
  369
  417
  467
  520
  576
  635
  696
  760
  826
  896
  968
  1,043
  1,121
  1,202
  1,286
  1,373
  1,464
  1,559
  1,657
  1,759
  1,866
  1,977
  2,093
  2,214
  2,340
  2,472
  2,609
  2,753
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  283
  325
  369
  417
  467
  520
  576
  635
  696
  760
  826
  896
  968
  1,043
  1,121
  1,202
  1,286
  1,373
  1,464
  1,559
  1,657
  1,759
  1,866
  1,977
  2,093
  2,214
  2,340
  2,472
  2,609
  2,753
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.537
  0.538
  0.539
  0.537
  0.537
  0.538
  0.538
  0.537
  0.537
  0.538
  0.539
  0.538
  0.538
  0.538
  0.538
  0.537
  0.538
  0.538
  0.538
  0.538
  0.538
  0.538
  0.538
  0.538
  0.538
  0.538
  0.538
  0.538
  0.538
  0.538
Average production assets, $m
  39
  44
  50
  57
  64
  71
  79
  87
  95
  104
  113
  122
  132
  142
  153
  164
  176
  188
  200
  213
  226
  240
  255
  270
  286
  303
  320
  338
  357
  376
Working capital, $m
  -36
  -41
  -47
  -53
  -60
  -66
  -73
  -81
  -89
  -97
  -105
  -114
  -123
  -133
  -143
  -153
  -164
  -175
  -187
  -199
  -211
  -224
  -238
  -252
  -267
  -282
  -298
  -315
  -333
  -351
Total debt, $m
  16
  28
  40
  54
  68
  83
  98
  115
  132
  150
  169
  188
  209
  230
  252
  274
  298
  322
  348
  375
  402
  431
  461
  492
  525
  559
  594
  631
  670
  710
Total liabilities, $m
  79
  91
  104
  117
  131
  146
  162
  178
  196
  213
  232
  252
  272
  293
  315
  338
  361
  386
  411
  438
  466
  494
  524
  556
  588
  622
  658
  695
  733
  774
Total equity, $m
  203
  233
  265
  300
  336
  374
  414
  456
  500
  546
  594
  644
  696
  750
  806
  864
  924
  987
  1,053
  1,121
  1,191
  1,265
  1,342
  1,422
  1,505
  1,592
  1,683
  1,777
  1,876
  1,980
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  282
  324
  369
  417
  467
  520
  576
  634
  696
  759
  826
  896
  968
  1,043
  1,121
  1,202
  1,285
  1,373
  1,464
  1,559
  1,657
  1,759
  1,866
  1,978
  2,093
  2,214
  2,341
  2,472
  2,609
  2,754
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.080
  0.120
  0.150
  0.180
  0.200
  0.220
  0.240
  0.250
  0.260
  0.270
  0.280
  0.290
  0.300
  0.310
  0.310
  0.320
  0.320
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.360
  0.360
  0.360
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.719
  0.719
  0.719
  0.719
  0.719
  0.719
  0.719
  0.719
  0.719
  0.719
  0.719
  0.719
  0.719
  0.719
  0.719
  0.719
  0.719
  0.719
  0.719
  0.719
  0.719
  0.719
  0.719
  0.719
  0.719
  0.719
  0.719
  0.719
  0.719
  0.719

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -65
  -67
  -69
  -71
  -73
  -76
  -78
  -81
  -83
  -86
  -78
  -81
  -84
  -87
  -90
  -93
  -97
  -100
  -104
  -108
  -111
  -115
  -120
  -124
  -128
  -133
  -137
  -142
  -147
  -153
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  40
Funds from operations, $m
  -49
  -51
  -52
  -54
  -55
  -57
  -58
  -60
  -62
  -64
  -66
  -68
  -69
  -71
  -74
  -76
  -78
  -80
  -82
  -85
  -87
  -90
  -92
  -95
  -97
  -100
  -103
  -106
  -109
  -112
Change in working capital, $m
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
Cash from operations, $m
  -44
  -45
  -46
  -48
  -49
  -50
  -51
  -53
  -54
  -56
  -57
  -59
  -60
  -62
  -64
  -65
  -67
  -69
  -71
  -73
  -75
  -77
  -79
  -81
  -83
  -85
  -87
  -89
  -91
  -94
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
New CAPEX, $m
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -58
Free cash flow, $m
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -62
  -64
  -67
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -77
  -80
  -83
  -86
  -90
  -93
  -96
  -100
  -103
  -107
  -111
  -115
  -119
  -123
  -128
  -132
  -137
  -142
  -147
  -152
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  35
  37
  39
  40
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  93
  97
  101
  105
  110
  114
  118
  123
  127
  132
  126
  131
  136
  141
  146
  151
  157
  163
  169
  176
  182
  189
  196
  204
  212
  220
  228
  237
  246
  256
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  104
  109
  114
  118
  124
  129
  134
  139
  144
  150
  145
  150
  156
  162
  168
  174
  181
  188
  195
  203
  210
  218
  226
  235
  245
  254
  263
  274
  285
  296
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  51
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
  67
  70
  73
  75
  67
  70
  73
  75
  78
  81
  85
  88
  91
  95
  99
  103
  107
  112
  117
  122
  127
  132
  138
  145
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -93
  -97
  -101
  -105
  -110
  -114
  -118
  -123
  -127
  -132
  -126
  -131
  -136
  -141
  -146
  -151
  -157
  -163
  -169
  -176
  -182
  -189
  -196
  -204
  -212
  -220
  -228
  -237
  -246
  -256
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  36
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -6
  -44
  -45
  -46
  -48
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -59
  -61
  -63
  -65
  -68
  -70
  -73
  -75
  -78
  -80
  -83
  -86
  -89
  -92
  -95
  -98
  -101
  -105
  -108
  -111
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -6
  -40
  -39
  -38
  -37
  -36
  -34
  -33
  -31
  -30
  -28
  -26
  -24
  -22
  -20
  -18
  -16
  -14
  -12
  -10
  -9
  -7
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  64.8
  43.5
  30.1
  21.4
  15.6
  11.6
  8.7
  6.7
  5.2
  4.1
  3.3
  2.7
  2.2
  1.8
  1.5
  1.3
  1.1
  0.9
  0.8
  0.7
  0.6
  0.5
  0.4
  0.4
  0.3
  0.3
  0.2
  0.2
  0.2
  0.2

Castlight Health, Inc. offers a health benefits platform that engages employees to make healthcare decisions, and enables employers to communicate and measure their benefit programs. The Company operates through cloud-based products segment. Its technology offering aggregates data and applies analytics to make healthcare data transparent. Its products deliver employee engagement and enable employers to integrate benefit programs into a single platform available to employees and their families. Its health benefits platform engages external data and its substantial user base to provide a single, end-to-end solution that engages employees through personalized and relevant communications. Its offering provides employers the opportunity to communicate, measure, and get value out of their benefits and programs on a real-time basis. It offers cross-sell products, such as Castlight Action, Castlight Pharmacy, Castlight Dental, Castlight Elevate, Castlight Protect and Castlight Rewards.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Castlight Health Cl B (CSLT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -4.2
Price to Sales 2.5
Price to Book 2.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -6.8
Price to Free Cash Flow -6.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 36%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -60%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -7.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -35.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -44.1%
Return On Total Capital -53.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -60.7%
Return On Equity -53.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -60.7%
Asset Turnover 0.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 65.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 53.6%
EBITDA Margin -54.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -114.6%
Operating Margin -57.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -117.6%
Pre-Tax Margin -57.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -117.2%
Net Profit Margin -57.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -117.2%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

CSLT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CSLT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $131.429 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Castlight Health Cl B. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Castlight Health Cl B. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CSLT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 15.8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for CSLT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Castlight Health Cl B, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Castlight Health Cl B.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CSLT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 109.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $50 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CSLT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Castlight Health Cl B.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Castlight Health Cl B. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CSLT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CSLT are equal to 25.4%.

Life of production assets of 9.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Castlight Health Cl B operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CSLT is equal to -23.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $211.557 million for Castlight Health Cl B - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 85.837 million for Castlight Health Cl B is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Castlight Health Cl B at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Castlight: 3Q Earnings Snapshot   [06:56PM  Associated Press]
▶ Castlight Health to Announce Third Quarter 2018 Results   [Oct-11-18 04:20PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Here's Why Castlight Health Plummeted Today   [Jul-31-18 10:30PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Castlight Health Announces Second Quarter 2018 Results   [Jul-30-18 04:20PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Castlight Health to Announce Second Quarter 2018 Results   [Jul-12-18 08:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Castlight Announces Return on Investment Guarantee   [Jul-11-18 06:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Castlight: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-10-18 06:17PM  Associated Press]
▶ Castlight Health to Announce First Quarter 2018 Results   [Apr-11-18 08:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Castlight reports 4Q loss   [Feb-21-18 07:59PM  Associated Press]
▶ Castlight Health to Announce Fourth Quarter 2017 Results   [Jan-25-18 08:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Castlight reports 3Q loss   [Oct-25-17 07:45PM  Associated Press]
▶ Castlight Health to Announce Third Quarter 2017 Results   [Oct-05-17 08:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ [$$] GE Cuts Wind-Energy Stock Stake by $30M   [Aug-16-17 05:52AM  Barrons.com]
▶ Castlight reports 2Q loss   [Aug-04-17 03:11AM  Associated Press]
▶ Castlight Health Announces Second Quarter 2017 Results   [Aug-02-17 04:20PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Castlight Health to Announce Second Quarter 2017 Results   [Jul-13-17 08:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ 3 Digital Health Companies Poised for Sizzling Growth   [May-16-17 03:02PM  Motley Fool]
▶ What's Behind Castlight Health Rallying 13.2% Today   [May-10-17 04:57PM  Motley Fool]

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