Intrinsic value of Cornerstone OnDemand - CSOD

Previous Close

$39.02

  Intrinsic Value

$0.54

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-99%

  Value-price divergence*

0%

Previous close

$39.02

 
Intrinsic value

$0.54

 
Up/down potential

-99%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

0%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CSOD stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  24.41
  9.30
  8.87
  8.48
  8.13
  7.82
  7.54
  7.29
  7.06
  6.85
  6.67
  6.50
  6.35
  6.21
  6.09
  5.98
  5.89
  5.80
  5.72
  5.65
  5.58
  5.52
  5.47
  5.42
  5.38
  5.34
  5.31
  5.28
  5.25
  5.23
  5.20
Revenue, $m
  423
  462
  503
  546
  590
  637
  685
  735
  786
  840
  896
  954
  1,015
  1,078
  1,144
  1,212
  1,284
  1,358
  1,436
  1,517
  1,601
  1,690
  1,782
  1,879
  1,980
  2,086
  2,197
  2,313
  2,434
  2,561
  2,694
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  396
  430
  467
  504
  544
  584
  627
  671
  717
  764
  811
  863
  916
  972
  1,030
  1,091
  1,154
  1,220
  1,289
  1,361
  1,436
  1,515
  1,597
  1,683
  1,773
  1,867
  1,965
  2,068
  2,177
  2,290
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  123
  126
  129
  132
  136
  139
  143
  146
  150
  154
  157
  161
  165
  170
  174
  178
  183
  187
  192
  197
  202
  207
  212
  217
  222
  228
  234
  240
  246
  252
Total operating expenses, $m
  479
  519
  556
  596
  636
  680
  723
  770
  817
  867
  918
  968
  1,024
  1,081
  1,142
  1,204
  1,269
  1,337
  1,407
  1,481
  1,558
  1,638
  1,722
  1,809
  1,900
  1,995
  2,095
  2,199
  2,308
  2,423
  2,542
Operating income, $m
  -56
  -56
  -53
  -50
  -46
  -43
  -39
  -35
  -31
  -26
  -22
  -14
  -9
  -4
  2
  8
  15
  21
  28
  36
  44
  52
  61
  70
  80
  91
  102
  113
  126
  139
  153
EBITDA, $m
  -24
  -42
  -38
  -34
  -30
  -25
  -20
  -15
  -9
  -3
  3
  9
  16
  23
  30
  38
  46
  54
  63
  73
  83
  93
  104
  116
  128
  141
  155
  169
  185
  201
  218
Interest expense (income), $m
  4
  8
  -1
  0
  1
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  8
  9
  10
  12
  13
  15
  16
  18
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  35
  37
  40
  43
  46
  49
Earnings before tax, $m
  -66
  -65
  -52
  -49
  -47
  -44
  -42
  -39
  -36
  -33
  -29
  -23
  -19
  -15
  -11
  -7
  -2
  3
  8
  14
  20
  26
  33
  40
  48
  56
  64
  73
  83
  93
  104
Tax expense, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  2
  4
  5
  7
  9
  11
  13
  15
  17
  20
  22
  25
  28
Net income, $m
  -67
  -65
  -52
  -49
  -47
  -44
  -42
  -39
  -36
  -33
  -29
  -23
  -19
  -15
  -11
  -7
  -2
  2
  6
  10
  15
  19
  24
  29
  35
  41
  47
  54
  61
  68
  76

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  302
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  624
  352
  383
  416
  449
  485
  521
  559
  598
  639
  682
  726
  773
  821
  871
  923
  977
  1,034
  1,093
  1,154
  1,219
  1,286
  1,356
  1,430
  1,507
  1,587
  1,672
  1,760
  1,852
  1,949
  2,051
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  322
  352
  383
  416
  449
  485
  521
  559
  598
  639
  682
  726
  773
  821
  871
  923
  977
  1,034
  1,093
  1,154
  1,219
  1,286
  1,356
  1,430
  1,507
  1,587
  1,672
  1,760
  1,852
  1,949
  2,051
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.314
  1.313
  1.313
  1.313
  1.314
  1.313
  1.315
  1.315
  1.314
  1.315
  1.314
  1.314
  1.313
  1.313
  1.313
  1.313
  1.314
  1.313
  1.314
  1.315
  1.313
  1.314
  1.314
  1.314
  1.314
  1.314
  1.314
  1.314
  1.314
  1.314
  1.314
Average production assets, $m
  51
  56
  61
  66
  71
  77
  83
  89
  95
  102
  108
  115
  123
  130
  138
  147
  155
  164
  174
  184
  194
  204
  216
  227
  240
  252
  266
  280
  295
  310
  326
Working capital, $m
  148
  -168
  -183
  -199
  -215
  -232
  -249
  -267
  -286
  -306
  -326
  -347
  -369
  -392
  -416
  -441
  -467
  -494
  -523
  -552
  -583
  -615
  -649
  -684
  -721
  -759
  -800
  -842
  -886
  -932
  -981
Total debt, $m
  238
  -42
  -14
  15
  45
  77
  110
  144
  180
  217
  255
  295
  336
  379
  424
  471
  520
  571
  624
  680
  738
  798
  862
  928
  997
  1,070
  1,146
  1,225
  1,308
  1,395
  1,486
Total liabilities, $m
  597
  317
  345
  374
  404
  436
  469
  503
  539
  576
  614
  654
  695
  738
  783
  830
  879
  930
  983
  1,039
  1,097
  1,157
  1,221
  1,287
  1,356
  1,429
  1,505
  1,584
  1,667
  1,754
  1,845
Total equity, $m
  27
  35
  38
  42
  45
  48
  52
  56
  60
  64
  68
  73
  77
  82
  87
  92
  98
  103
  109
  115
  122
  129
  136
  143
  151
  159
  167
  176
  185
  195
  205
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  624
  352
  383
  416
  449
  484
  521
  559
  599
  640
  682
  727
  772
  820
  870
  922
  977
  1,033
  1,092
  1,154
  1,219
  1,286
  1,357
  1,430
  1,507
  1,588
  1,672
  1,760
  1,852
  1,949
  2,050
Debt-to-equity ratio
  8.815
  -1.200
  -0.370
  0.360
  1.010
  1.590
  2.110
  2.580
  3.000
  3.390
  3.740
  4.060
  4.350
  4.620
  4.880
  5.110
  5.330
  5.530
  5.710
  5.890
  6.050
  6.210
  6.350
  6.490
  6.620
  6.740
  6.850
  6.960
  7.060
  7.160
  7.250
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.854
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -67
  -65
  -52
  -49
  -47
  -44
  -42
  -39
  -36
  -33
  -29
  -23
  -19
  -15
  -11
  -7
  -2
  2
  6
  10
  15
  19
  24
  29
  35
  41
  47
  54
  61
  68
  76
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  32
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  24
  23
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  48
  50
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
Funds from operations, $m
  41
  -51
  -37
  -34
  -30
  -26
  -22
  -18
  -14
  -10
  -5
  0
  5
  11
  17
  23
  29
  35
  41
  47
  53
  60
  67
  75
  83
  91
  100
  110
  119
  130
  141
Change in working capital, $m
  6
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -49
Cash from operations, $m
  35
  -36
  -22
  -18
  -14
  -10
  -5
  0
  5
  10
  15
  21
  27
  34
  41
  48
  55
  62
  69
  76
  84
  92
  101
  110
  120
  130
  140
  152
  164
  176
  190
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
New CAPEX, $m
  -23
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -82
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -61
  -63
  -67
  -71
  -74
  -78
Free cash flow, $m
  -47
  -52
  -38
  -35
  -32
  -29
  -26
  -23
  -19
  -16
  -12
  -7
  -3
  2
  6
  12
  17
  22
  27
  32
  37
  43
  49
  55
  62
  69
  77
  85
  93
  102
  112
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  -280
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  38
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  63
  66
  69
  72
  76
  79
  83
  87
  91
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  24
  375
  55
  53
  50
  48
  45
  43
  40
  37
  33
  27
  24
  20
  16
  12
  7
  3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  24
  95
  83
  82
  80
  80
  78
  77
  76
  74
  71
  67
  66
  63
  61
  59
  56
  54
  53
  56
  58
  61
  63
  66
  69
  72
  76
  79
  83
  87
  91
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -24
  43
  45
  47
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  60
  60
  62
  65
  68
  70
  73
  77
  80
  87
  95
  103
  112
  121
  131
  141
  152
  164
  176
  189
  203
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -19
  -375
  -55
  -53
  -50
  -48
  -45
  -43
  -40
  -37
  -33
  -27
  -24
  -20
  -16
  -12
  -7
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  302
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -30
  -10
  -6
  -2
  2
  7
  11
  16
  21
  27
  32
  38
  45
  51
  59
  66
  71
  74
  81
  89
  97
  105
  114
  123
  133
  144
  155
  167
  179
  193
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -29
  -9
  -5
  -2
  2
  5
  8
  10
  12
  14
  15
  16
  17
  17
  17
  17
  15
  14
  13
  11
  10
  9
  7
  6
  5
  4
  3
  3
  2
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  43.3
  38.0
  33.9
  30.7
  28.0
  25.9
  24.2
  22.8
  21.7
  20.8
  20.2
  19.7
  19.3
  19.0
  18.9
  18.8
  18.8
  18.8
  18.8
  18.8
  18.8
  18.8
  18.8
  18.8
  18.8
  18.8
  18.8
  18.8
  18.8

Cornerstone OnDemand, Inc. is a cloud computing company. The Company provides learning and human capital management software, delivered as Software-as-a-Service (SaaS). Its human capital management platform combines the talent management solutions with analytics and human resources (HR) administration solutions to enable organizations to manage the employee lifecycle. Its enterprise human capital management platform consists of four product suites: its Recruiting suite, which helps organizations to source and attract candidates, assess and select applicants, onboard new hires and manage the entire recruiting process; its Learning suite, which enables clients to manage training and development programs; its Performance suite, which provides tools to manage goal setting, performance reviews, compensation management and succession planning, and HR Administration suite, which supports employee records administration, workforce planning and compliance reporting.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Cornerstone OnDemand (CSOD)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -32.9
Price to Sales 5.2
Price to Book 81.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 63
Price to Free Cash Flow 183.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 24.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -20.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 7.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 881.5%
Total Debt to Equity 881.5%
Interest Coverage -16
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -10.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -13.1%
Return On Total Capital -26.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -28.5%
Return On Equity -382.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -306.6%
Asset Turnover 0.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 67.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 68.7%
EBITDA Margin -7.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -13.3%
Operating Margin -13.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -17.3%
Pre-Tax Margin -15.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -21.5%
Net Profit Margin -15.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -21.9%
Effective Tax Rate -1.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.8%
Payout Ratio 0%

CSOD stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CSOD stock intrinsic value calculation we used $423 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Cornerstone OnDemand. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Cornerstone OnDemand. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CSOD stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 9.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for CSOD is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Cornerstone OnDemand, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Cornerstone OnDemand.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CSOD stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 85.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $120 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CSOD stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Cornerstone OnDemand.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Cornerstone OnDemand. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CSOD stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CSOD are equal to 12.1%.

Life of production assets of 2.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Cornerstone OnDemand operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CSOD is equal to -36.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $27 million for Cornerstone OnDemand - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 57.126 million for Cornerstone OnDemand is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Cornerstone OnDemand at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Why Cornerstone OnDemand Shares Soared Today   [Sep-14-17 04:29PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Is It Too Late To Buy Cornerstone OnDemand Inc (CSOD)?   [Sep-13-17 04:37PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Cornerstone OnDemand reports 2Q loss   [Aug-04-17 03:11AM  Associated Press]
▶ Sometimes You Just Need an Activist   [Jun-26-17 02:52PM  Bloomberg]
▶ Cornerstone OnDemand reports 1Q loss   [May-02-17 05:40PM  Associated Press]
▶ Cornerstone OnDemand reports 4Q loss   [Feb-13-17 04:18PM  Associated Press]
▶ Is Cornerstone OnDemand, Inc. (CSOD) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-10-16 04:10PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Why These Stocks Will Fall Amid Trump's Bull Run (FET, ESV)   [Dec-05-16 03:00AM  at Investopedia]
▶ Cornerstone draws bullish position   [Nov-09-16 07:45AM  optionMONSTER]
▶ Why Cornerstone OnDemand Shares Plunged Today   [Nov-04-16 12:41PM  at Motley Fool]
Financial statements of CSOD
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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