Intrinsic value of Capital Senior Living - CSU

Previous Close

$12.22

  Intrinsic Value

$0.96

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-92%

  Value-price divergence*

-46%

Previous close

$12.22

 
Intrinsic value

$0.96

 
Up/down potential

-92%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-46%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CSU stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  8.50
  5.40
  5.36
  5.32
  5.29
  5.26
  5.24
  5.21
  5.19
  5.17
  5.15
  5.14
  5.13
  5.11
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
  5.07
  5.07
  5.06
  5.05
  5.05
  5.04
  5.04
  5.04
  5.03
  5.03
  5.03
  5.02
  5.02
  5.02
Revenue, $m
  447
  471
  496
  523
  550
  579
  610
  642
  675
  710
  746
  785
  825
  867
  911
  958
  1,006
  1,058
  1,111
  1,167
  1,226
  1,288
  1,353
  1,421
  1,493
  1,568
  1,647
  1,730
  1,817
  1,908
  2,004
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  449
  473
  498
  525
  552
  581
  611
  643
  676
  711
  748
  786
  826
  869
  913
  959
  1,008
  1,059
  1,112
  1,169
  1,228
  1,290
  1,355
  1,423
  1,494
  1,570
  1,648
  1,731
  1,818
  1,909
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  433
  449
  473
  498
  525
  552
  581
  611
  643
  676
  711
  748
  786
  826
  869
  913
  959
  1,008
  1,059
  1,112
  1,169
  1,228
  1,290
  1,355
  1,423
  1,494
  1,570
  1,648
  1,731
  1,818
  1,909
Operating income, $m
  14
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  50
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  74
  77
  81
  85
  90
  94
EBITDA, $m
  74
  85
  90
  95
  100
  105
  110
  116
  122
  128
  135
  142
  149
  157
  165
  173
  182
  191
  201
  211
  222
  233
  245
  257
  270
  284
  298
  313
  328
  345
  362
Interest expense (income), $m
  41
  43
  45
  48
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  67
  70
  74
  78
  83
  87
  92
  97
  102
  107
  113
  119
  125
  131
  138
  145
  153
  161
  169
  178
  187
  197
Earnings before tax, $m
  -28
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -88
  -92
  -97
  -102
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -28
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -88
  -92
  -97
  -102

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  34
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,146
  1,172
  1,235
  1,301
  1,369
  1,441
  1,517
  1,596
  1,679
  1,766
  1,857
  1,952
  2,052
  2,157
  2,267
  2,383
  2,504
  2,631
  2,764
  2,904
  3,051
  3,205
  3,366
  3,536
  3,714
  3,901
  4,097
  4,303
  4,519
  4,746
  4,984
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,112
  1,172
  1,235
  1,301
  1,369
  1,441
  1,517
  1,596
  1,679
  1,766
  1,857
  1,952
  2,052
  2,157
  2,267
  2,383
  2,504
  2,631
  2,764
  2,904
  3,051
  3,205
  3,366
  3,536
  3,714
  3,901
  4,097
  4,303
  4,519
  4,746
  4,984
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.402
  0.402
  0.402
  0.402
  0.402
  0.402
  0.402
  0.402
  0.402
  0.402
  0.402
  0.402
  0.402
  0.402
  0.402
  0.402
  0.402
  0.402
  0.402
  0.402
  0.402
  0.402
  0.402
  0.402
  0.402
  0.402
  0.402
  0.402
  0.402
  0.402
  0.402
Average production assets, $m
  969
  1,021
  1,076
  1,133
  1,193
  1,256
  1,322
  1,391
  1,463
  1,539
  1,618
  1,701
  1,789
  1,880
  1,976
  2,076
  2,182
  2,293
  2,409
  2,531
  2,659
  2,793
  2,934
  3,082
  3,237
  3,400
  3,571
  3,750
  3,938
  4,136
  4,344
Working capital, $m
  1
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -62
Total debt, $m
  939
  965
  1,021
  1,080
  1,142
  1,207
  1,275
  1,346
  1,421
  1,499
  1,581
  1,667
  1,757
  1,851
  1,950
  2,054
  2,163
  2,278
  2,398
  2,523
  2,656
  2,794
  2,940
  3,092
  3,253
  3,421
  3,597
  3,783
  3,977
  4,181
  4,396
Total liabilities, $m
  1,029
  1,055
  1,111
  1,170
  1,232
  1,297
  1,365
  1,436
  1,511
  1,589
  1,671
  1,757
  1,847
  1,941
  2,040
  2,144
  2,253
  2,368
  2,488
  2,613
  2,746
  2,884
  3,030
  3,182
  3,343
  3,511
  3,687
  3,873
  4,067
  4,271
  4,486
Total equity, $m
  117
  117
  123
  130
  137
  144
  152
  160
  168
  177
  186
  195
  205
  216
  227
  238
  250
  263
  276
  290
  305
  320
  337
  354
  371
  390
  410
  430
  452
  475
  498
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,146
  1,172
  1,234
  1,300
  1,369
  1,441
  1,517
  1,596
  1,679
  1,766
  1,857
  1,952
  2,052
  2,157
  2,267
  2,382
  2,503
  2,631
  2,764
  2,903
  3,051
  3,204
  3,367
  3,536
  3,714
  3,901
  4,097
  4,303
  4,519
  4,746
  4,984
Debt-to-equity ratio
  8.026
  8.230
  8.270
  8.310
  8.340
  8.380
  8.410
  8.440
  8.460
  8.490
  8.520
  8.540
  8.560
  8.580
  8.600
  8.620
  8.640
  8.660
  8.670
  8.690
  8.700
  8.720
  8.730
  8.750
  8.760
  8.770
  8.780
  8.790
  8.800
  8.810
  8.820
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.075
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -28
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -88
  -92
  -97
  -102
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  60
  63
  66
  70
  74
  78
  82
  86
  90
  95
  100
  105
  110
  116
  122
  128
  135
  142
  149
  156
  164
  172
  181
  190
  200
  210
  220
  231
  243
  255
  268
Funds from operations, $m
  51
  42
  44
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  78
  82
  85
  90
  94
  98
  103
  108
  113
  119
  125
  131
  137
  144
  151
  158
  166
Change in working capital, $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
Cash from operations, $m
  52
  43
  45
  47
  50
  52
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  76
  79
  83
  87
  91
  96
  100
  105
  110
  115
  121
  127
  133
  139
  146
  153
  161
  169
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -95
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -116
  -122
  -128
  -135
  -142
  -149
  -156
  -164
  -172
  -181
  -190
  -200
  -210
  -220
  -231
  -243
  -255
New CAPEX, $m
  -62
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -96
  -101
  -106
  -111
  -116
  -122
  -128
  -134
  -141
  -148
  -155
  -163
  -171
  -179
  -188
  -198
  -208
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -201
  -112
  -118
  -123
  -130
  -137
  -144
  -151
  -158
  -166
  -174
  -183
  -192
  -201
  -212
  -223
  -234
  -246
  -258
  -271
  -284
  -298
  -313
  -329
  -345
  -363
  -381
  -399
  -419
  -441
  -463
Free cash flow, $m
  -149
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -89
  -93
  -98
  -103
  -109
  -114
  -120
  -126
  -133
  -140
  -147
  -154
  -162
  -170
  -179
  -188
  -198
  -208
  -219
  -230
  -241
  -254
  -266
  -280
  -294
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  132
  45
  57
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  75
  78
  82
  86
  90
  94
  99
  104
  109
  114
  120
  126
  132
  139
  145
  153
  160
  168
  177
  185
  195
  204
  214
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -2
  36
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  47
  50
  52
  55
  58
  61
  65
  68
  72
  76
  80
  84
  88
  93
  98
  103
  108
  114
  120
  126
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  127
  81
  85
  89
  94
  99
  104
  109
  115
  120
  126
  133
  140
  146
  154
  162
  170
  179
  188
  198
  208
  219
  229
  241
  253
  266
  280
  293
  309
  324
  340
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -22
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  19
  -36
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -93
  -98
  -103
  -108
  -114
  -120
  -126
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  15
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -10
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -80
Discount rate, %
 
  13.30
  13.97
  14.66
  15.40
  16.17
  16.97
  17.82
  18.71
  19.65
  20.63
  21.66
  22.75
  23.88
  25.08
  26.33
  27.65
  29.03
  30.48
  32.01
  33.61
  35.29
  37.05
  38.91
  40.85
  42.89
  45.04
  47.29
  49.65
  52.14
  54.74
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -9
  -12
  -11
  -10
  -9
  -8
  -7
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -3
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  89.9
  83.6
  77.6
  72.1
  66.9
  62.0
  57.5
  53.3
  49.4
  45.8
  42.4
  39.3
  36.3
  33.6
  31.1
  28.8
  26.6
  24.6
  22.7
  21.0
  19.4
  17.9
  16.6
  15.3
  14.1
  13.0
  12.0
  11.1
  10.2
  9.5

Capital Senior Living Corporation is an operator of senior housing communities in the United States. The Company provides senior living services to the elderly, including independent living and assisted living services, and provides home care services at one of its communities. Its continuum of care integrates independent living and assisted living and is bridged by home care through independent home care agencies or its home care agency, sustains residents' autonomy and independence based on their physical and mental abilities. As of December 31, 2016, it operated 129 senior housing communities in 23 states with an aggregate capacity of approximately 16,500 residents, including 79 senior housing communities, which it owned and 50 senior housing communities it leased. As of December 31, 2016, it also operated one home care agency. It offers assisted living care and services, including personal care services, around the clock staffing, support services and supplemental services.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Capital Senior Living (CSU)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -12.9
Price to Sales 0.8
Price to Book 3.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 6.9
Price to Free Cash Flow -36.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 8.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 47.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 34.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 2
Current Ratio 0.3
LT Debt to Equity 786.3%
Total Debt to Equity 802.6%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 1.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.4%
Return On Total Capital -2.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.5%
Return On Equity -22.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -16.1%
Asset Turnover 0.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 16.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.2%
Operating Margin 3.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.8%
Pre-Tax Margin -6.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -5.1%
Net Profit Margin -6.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -5.3%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -4%
Payout Ratio 0%

CSU stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CSU stock intrinsic value calculation we used $447 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Capital Senior Living. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Capital Senior Living. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CSU stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 5.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 13.3%, whose default value for CSU is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Capital Senior Living, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Capital Senior Living.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CSU stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 95.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CSU stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.7% for Capital Senior Living.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Capital Senior Living. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CSU stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CSU are equal to 216.8%.

Life of production assets of 16.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Capital Senior Living operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CSU is equal to -3.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $117 million for Capital Senior Living - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 30.366 million for Capital Senior Living is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Capital Senior Living at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.4 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Should You Buy Capital Senior Living Corporation (CSU)?   [Sep-06-17 04:20PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Capital Senior Living reports 2Q loss   [Aug-01-17 11:13PM  Associated Press]
▶ Capital Senior Living reports 1Q loss   [May-02-17 07:21PM  Associated Press]
▶ Will the United Airlines incident cost the CEO his job?   [Apr-12-17 03:33PM  Fox Business Videos]
▶ Flows + Bloat = Headaches for Funds   [Mar-27-17 07:00AM  Morningstar]
▶ Flows + Bloat = Headaches for Funds   [07:00AM  at Morningstar]
▶ Capital Senior Living reports 4Q loss   [06:07PM  Associated Press]
▶ Hedge Funds Are Crazy About Enanta Pharmaceuticals Inc (ENTA)   [Dec-09-16 10:28AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Is Hostess Brands Inc (GRSH) Worthy of Your Portfolio?   [Dec-07-16 05:05PM  at Insider Monkey]
Financial statements of CSU
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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