Intrinsic value of CareTrust REIT - CTRE

Previous Close

$15.19

  Intrinsic Value

$1.48

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-90%

Previous close

$15.19

 
Intrinsic value

$1.48

 
Up/down potential

-90%

 
Rating

str. sell

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as CTRE.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CTRE stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  40.00
  22.20
  20.48
  18.93
  17.54
  16.28
  15.16
  14.14
  13.23
  12.40
  11.66
  11.00
  10.40
  9.86
  9.37
  8.93
  8.54
  8.19
  7.87
  7.58
  7.32
  7.09
  6.88
  6.69
  6.52
  6.37
  6.23
  6.11
  6.00
  5.90
  5.81
Revenue, $m
  105
  128
  155
  184
  216
  251
  289
  330
  374
  420
  469
  521
  575
  632
  691
  753
  817
  884
  954
  1,026
  1,101
  1,179
  1,260
  1,345
  1,432
  1,524
  1,619
  1,718
  1,821
  1,928
  2,040
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  51
  62
  74
  86
  101
  116
  132
  150
  168
  188
  208
  230
  253
  276
  301
  327
  354
  381
  410
  440
  472
  504
  538
  573
  609
  647
  687
  728
  771
  816
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  10
  11
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
Total operating expenses, $m
  52
  61
  73
  85
  97
  112
  128
  144
  162
  180
  201
  221
  243
  267
  290
  315
  342
  369
  397
  426
  456
  489
  521
  556
  591
  628
  666
  706
  748
  791
  837
Operating income, $m
  53
  67
  82
  100
  119
  139
  162
  186
  212
  240
  269
  299
  332
  365
  401
  437
  475
  515
  557
  600
  644
  691
  739
  789
  841
  896
  952
  1,011
  1,072
  1,136
  1,203
EBITDA, $m
  85
  106
  129
  156
  185
  216
  250
  287
  326
  368
  412
  459
  507
  558
  612
  667
  725
  785
  848
  913
  981
  1,051
  1,124
  1,200
  1,279
  1,361
  1,447
  1,536
  1,628
  1,725
  1,826
Interest expense (income), $m
  21
  25
  31
  38
  45
  53
  62
  71
  82
  93
  104
  117
  130
  143
  157
  172
  188
  204
  221
  238
  257
  275
  295
  315
  337
  359
  382
  405
  430
  456
  483
Earnings before tax, $m
  29
  42
  51
  62
  74
  86
  100
  115
  131
  147
  165
  183
  202
  222
  243
  265
  288
  311
  336
  361
  388
  415
  444
  474
  505
  537
  571
  606
  642
  680
  720
Tax expense, $m
  0
  11
  14
  17
  20
  23
  27
  31
  35
  40
  44
  49
  55
  60
  66
  72
  78
  84
  91
  98
  105
  112
  120
  128
  136
  145
  154
  164
  173
  184
  194
Net income, $m
  29
  30
  37
  45
  54
  63
  73
  84
  95
  107
  120
  133
  147
  162
  177
  193
  210
  227
  245
  264
  283
  303
  324
  346
  368
  392
  417
  442
  469
  497
  526

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  8
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  925
  1,116
  1,344
  1,599
  1,879
  2,185
  2,516
  2,872
  3,252
  3,655
  4,082
  4,531
  5,002
  5,495
  6,010
  6,547
  7,106
  7,688
  8,293
  8,921
  9,575
  10,254
  10,959
  11,693
  12,456
  13,250
  14,076
  14,936
  15,832
  16,766
  17,740
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  917
  1,116
  1,344
  1,599
  1,879
  2,185
  2,516
  2,872
  3,252
  3,655
  4,082
  4,531
  5,002
  5,495
  6,010
  6,547
  7,106
  7,688
  8,293
  8,921
  9,575
  10,254
  10,959
  11,693
  12,456
  13,250
  14,076
  14,936
  15,832
  16,766
  17,740
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
Average production assets, $m
  770
  940
  1,133
  1,347
  1,584
  1,842
  2,121
  2,421
  2,741
  3,081
  3,440
  3,819
  4,216
  4,631
  5,065
  5,518
  5,989
  6,480
  6,989
  7,519
  8,070
  8,642
  9,237
  9,855
  10,498
  11,167
  11,863
  12,588
  13,344
  14,131
  14,952
Working capital, $m
  -8
  -20
  -23
  -28
  -33
  -38
  -44
  -50
  -57
  -64
  -71
  -79
  -87
  -96
  -105
  -114
  -124
  -134
  -145
  -156
  -167
  -179
  -192
  -204
  -218
  -232
  -246
  -261
  -277
  -293
  -310
Total debt, $m
  450
  553
  671
  802
  947
  1,105
  1,275
  1,459
  1,655
  1,863
  2,083
  2,315
  2,558
  2,812
  3,078
  3,355
  3,644
  3,944
  4,256
  4,580
  4,918
  5,268
  5,632
  6,011
  6,404
  6,814
  7,240
  7,684
  8,146
  8,628
  9,131
Total liabilities, $m
  473
  576
  694
  825
  970
  1,128
  1,298
  1,482
  1,678
  1,886
  2,106
  2,338
  2,581
  2,835
  3,101
  3,378
  3,667
  3,967
  4,279
  4,603
  4,941
  5,291
  5,655
  6,034
  6,427
  6,837
  7,263
  7,707
  8,169
  8,651
  9,154
Total equity, $m
  452
  540
  651
  774
  910
  1,058
  1,218
  1,390
  1,574
  1,769
  1,976
  2,193
  2,421
  2,660
  2,909
  3,169
  3,439
  3,721
  4,014
  4,318
  4,634
  4,963
  5,304
  5,659
  6,029
  6,413
  6,813
  7,229
  7,663
  8,115
  8,586
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  925
  1,116
  1,345
  1,599
  1,880
  2,186
  2,516
  2,872
  3,252
  3,655
  4,082
  4,531
  5,002
  5,495
  6,010
  6,547
  7,106
  7,688
  8,293
  8,921
  9,575
  10,254
  10,959
  11,693
  12,456
  13,250
  14,076
  14,936
  15,832
  16,766
  17,740
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.996
  1.020
  1.030
  1.040
  1.040
  1.040
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.060
  1.060
  1.060
  1.060
  1.060
  1.060
  1.060
  1.060
  1.060
  1.060
  1.060
  1.060
  1.060
  1.060
  1.060
  1.060
  1.060
  1.060
  1.060
  1.060
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.484
  0.484
  0.484
  0.484
  0.484
  0.484
  0.484
  0.484
  0.484
  0.484
  0.484
  0.484
  0.484
  0.484
  0.484
  0.484
  0.484
  0.484
  0.484
  0.484
  0.484
  0.484
  0.484
  0.484
  0.484
  0.484
  0.484
  0.484
  0.484
  0.484
  0.484

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  29
  30
  37
  45
  54
  63
  73
  84
  95
  107
  120
  133
  147
  162
  177
  193
  210
  227
  245
  264
  283
  303
  324
  346
  368
  392
  417
  442
  469
  497
  526
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  32
  39
  47
  56
  66
  77
  88
  101
  114
  128
  143
  159
  176
  193
  211
  230
  250
  270
  291
  313
  336
  360
  385
  411
  437
  465
  494
  525
  556
  589
  623
Funds from operations, $m
  64
  70
  85
  101
  120
  140
  161
  185
  209
  236
  263
  293
  323
  355
  388
  423
  459
  497
  536
  577
  619
  663
  709
  756
  806
  857
  911
  967
  1,025
  1,085
  1,149
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
Cash from operations, $m
  64
  73
  89
  106
  125
  145
  167
  191
  216
  243
  271
  300
  331
  364
  397
  433
  469
  507
  547
  588
  631
  675
  721
  769
  819
  871
  925
  982
  1,040
  1,102
  1,166
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -32
  -39
  -47
  -56
  -66
  -77
  -88
  -101
  -114
  -128
  -143
  -159
  -176
  -193
  -211
  -230
  -250
  -270
  -291
  -313
  -336
  -360
  -385
  -411
  -437
  -465
  -494
  -525
  -556
  -589
New CAPEX, $m
  -1
  -171
  -193
  -214
  -236
  -258
  -279
  -300
  -320
  -340
  -359
  -378
  -397
  -416
  -434
  -453
  -471
  -490
  -510
  -530
  -551
  -572
  -595
  -618
  -643
  -669
  -696
  -725
  -755
  -787
  -821
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -285
  -203
  -232
  -261
  -292
  -324
  -356
  -388
  -421
  -454
  -487
  -521
  -556
  -592
  -627
  -664
  -701
  -740
  -780
  -821
  -864
  -908
  -955
  -1,003
  -1,054
  -1,106
  -1,161
  -1,219
  -1,280
  -1,343
  -1,410
Free cash flow, $m
  -221
  -130
  -143
  -156
  -168
  -179
  -189
  -197
  -205
  -211
  -217
  -221
  -225
  -227
  -230
  -231
  -232
  -233
  -233
  -233
  -233
  -233
  -234
  -234
  -234
  -235
  -236
  -238
  -239
  -242
  -244
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  55
  103
  118
  131
  145
  158
  171
  184
  196
  208
  220
  232
  243
  254
  266
  277
  289
  300
  312
  324
  337
  350
  364
  379
  394
  410
  426
  444
  462
  482
  503
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  200
  66
  73
  78
  82
  85
  87
  88
  89
  88
  86
  84
  81
  76
  72
  67
  61
  54
  48
  41
  33
  25
  17
  9
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  253
  169
  191
  209
  227
  243
  258
  272
  285
  296
  306
  316
  324
  330
  338
  344
  350
  354
  360
  365
  370
  375
  381
  388
  395
  410
  426
  444
  462
  482
  503
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  33
  39
  48
  53
  59
  64
  69
  75
  80
  85
  89
  94
  99
  103
  108
  113
  117
  122
  127
  132
  137
  142
  148
  154
  160
  174
  190
  206
  223
  240
  258
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -190
  -96
  -111
  -123
  -136
  -148
  -160
  -172
  -184
  -195
  -206
  -217
  -228
  -239
  -249
  -260
  -271
  -282
  -293
  -304
  -316
  -329
  -342
  -355
  -369
  -384
  -400
  -416
  -434
  -452
  -471
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  8
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -49
  -63
  -70
  -77
  -84
  -91
  -98
  -104
  -111
  -117
  -123
  -129
  -135
  -141
  -147
  -153
  -160
  -166
  -172
  -179
  -186
  -194
  -201
  -209
  -210
  -210
  -210
  -211
  -212
  -213
Discount rate, %
 
  8.40
  8.82
  9.26
  9.72
  10.21
  10.72
  11.26
  11.82
  12.41
  13.03
  13.68
  14.37
  15.09
  15.84
  16.63
  17.46
  18.34
  19.25
  20.22
  21.23
  22.29
  23.40
  24.57
  25.80
  27.09
  28.45
  29.87
  31.36
  32.93
  34.58
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -46
  -53
  -54
  -53
  -52
  -49
  -46
  -43
  -39
  -34
  -30
  -26
  -22
  -18
  -15
  -12
  -9
  -7
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  94.5
  89.8
  85.8
  82.4
  79.5
  77.0
  74.9
  73.1
  71.5
  70.2
  69.1
  68.1
  67.3
  66.6
  66.0
  65.5
  65.1
  64.8
  64.5
  64.3
  64.2
  64.1
  64.1
  64.0
  64.0
  64.0
  64.0
  64.0
  64.0
  64.0

CareTrust REIT, Inc. is a self-administered, self-managed real estate investment trust. The Company is engaged in the ownership, acquisition and leasing of healthcare-related properties. It makes investments in healthcare-related real estate assets. As of December 31, 2016, its real estate portfolio included 154 skilled nursing facilities (SNFs), SNF Campuses, assisted living facilities and independent living facilities. As of December 31, 2016, the 93 facilities leased to The Ensign Group, Inc. had a total of 9,916 beds and units and are located in Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Iowa, Nebraska, Nevada, Texas, Utah and Washington; the 16 facilities leased to affiliates of Pristine Senior Living, LLC had a total of 1,488 beds and units; and the 42 remaining leased properties had a total of 3,515 beds and units and are located in California, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, North Carolina, Texas, Virginia, Washington and Wisconsin.


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FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  CareTrust REIT (CTRE)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 34
Price to Sales 9.4
Price to Book 2.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 15.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 15.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 40%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -45.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 99.6%
Total Debt to Equity 99.6%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 6.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.6%
Return On Total Capital 4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.2%
Return On Equity 8.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.6%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 78.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 69%
Operating Margin 50.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 40.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 27.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.1%
Net Profit Margin 27.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.1%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 127.6%

CTRE stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CTRE stock intrinsic value calculation we used $105 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by CareTrust REIT. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of CareTrust REIT. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CTRE stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 22.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.4%, whose default value for CTRE is calculated based on our internal credit rating of CareTrust REIT, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of CareTrust REIT.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CTRE stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 40%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $10 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CTRE stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.6% for CareTrust REIT.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for CareTrust REIT. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CTRE stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CTRE are equal to 732.9%.

Life of production assets of 24 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in CareTrust REIT operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CTRE is equal to -15.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $452 million for CareTrust REIT - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 76.372 million for CareTrust REIT is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of CareTrust REIT at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ CareTrust REIT Expands into Montana   [06:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
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▶ 3 Top Assisted-Living Stocks on the Market Right Now   [Nov-26-17 09:08AM  Motley Fool]
▶ CareTrust REIT Inc to Host Earnings Call   [Nov-09-17 10:05AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ CareTrust REIT reports 3Q results   [Nov-08-17 06:39PM  Associated Press]
▶ CareTrust REIT Expands in California   [Oct-31-17 05:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ CareTrust REIT Expands Virginia Seniors Housing Portfolio   [Oct-03-17 08:05AM  GlobeNewswire]
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▶ CareTrust REIT Expands Skilled Nursing Portfolio in Texas   [Sep-05-17 08:05AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ CareTrust REIT Provides an Update on its Texas Properties   [Aug-31-17 11:59PM  GlobeNewswire]
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▶ CareTrust REIT reports 2Q results   [Aug-04-17 02:49AM  Associated Press]
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▶ Stocks With Rising Composite Ratings: CareTrust REIT   [May-18-17 10:51AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ CareTrust REIT reports 1Q results   [May-02-17 07:15PM  Associated Press]
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▶ CareTrust REIT Acquires Illinois Skilled Nursing Portfolio   [Mar-02-17 08:05AM  GlobeNewswire]
Financial statements of CTRE
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