Intrinsic value of Ctrip.com International ADR - CTRP

Previous Close

$47.45

  Intrinsic Value

$120.17

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+153%

Previous close

$47.45

 
Intrinsic value

$120.17

 
Up/down potential

+153%

 
Rating

str. buy

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CTRP stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  76.41
  41.80
  38.12
  34.81
  31.83
  29.14
  26.73
  24.56
  22.60
  20.84
  19.26
  17.83
  16.55
  15.39
  14.35
  13.42
  12.58
  11.82
  11.14
  10.52
  9.97
  9.47
  9.03
  8.62
  8.26
  7.94
  7.64
  7.38
  7.14
  6.93
  6.73
Revenue, $m
  2,782
  3,945
  5,449
  7,345
  9,683
  12,505
  15,848
  19,739
  24,201
  29,245
  34,876
  41,095
  47,896
  55,268
  63,202
  71,682
  80,698
  90,235
  100,285
  110,839
  121,891
  133,438
  145,483
  158,030
  171,086
  184,662
  198,774
  213,438
  228,678
  244,516
  260,980
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  3,464
  4,476
  5,752
  7,324
  9,223
  11,471
  14,089
  17,090
  20,483
  24,272
  27,645
  32,219
  37,179
  42,516
  48,221
  54,285
  60,701
  67,462
  74,561
  81,996
  89,764
  97,867
  106,306
  115,089
  124,222
  133,715
  143,580
  153,831
  164,485
  175,561
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  3,016
  3,464
  4,476
  5,752
  7,324
  9,223
  11,471
  14,089
  17,090
  20,483
  24,272
  27,645
  32,219
  37,179
  42,516
  48,221
  54,285
  60,701
  67,462
  74,561
  81,996
  89,764
  97,867
  106,306
  115,089
  124,222
  133,715
  143,580
  153,831
  164,485
  175,561
Operating income, $m
  -234
  481
  973
  1,594
  2,359
  3,283
  4,377
  5,650
  7,111
  8,761
  10,605
  13,450
  15,676
  18,089
  20,686
  23,462
  26,412
  29,534
  32,823
  36,278
  39,895
  43,675
  47,617
  51,723
  55,997
  60,440
  65,059
  69,859
  74,847
  80,030
  85,419
EBITDA, $m
  -130
  1,415
  1,955
  2,635
  3,474
  4,486
  5,685
  7,081
  8,682
  10,491
  12,511
  14,742
  17,182
  19,827
  22,673
  25,715
  28,949
  32,371
  35,976
  39,762
  43,726
  47,869
  52,190
  56,691
  61,374
  66,245
  71,307
  76,568
  82,035
  87,716
  93,622
Interest expense (income), $m
  86
  175
  315
  495
  723
  1,004
  1,343
  1,744
  2,211
  2,747
  3,352
  4,028
  4,775
  5,592
  6,477
  7,429
  8,447
  9,530
  10,675
  11,881
  13,148
  14,475
  15,862
  17,308
  18,814
  20,381
  22,011
  23,706
  25,466
  27,296
  29,197
Earnings before tax, $m
  -255
  305
  658
  1,098
  1,636
  2,279
  3,034
  3,906
  4,899
  6,015
  7,252
  9,422
  10,901
  12,498
  14,209
  16,033
  17,965
  20,004
  22,149
  24,396
  26,747
  29,199
  31,755
  34,416
  37,182
  40,059
  43,047
  46,153
  49,380
  52,734
  56,222
Tax expense, $m
  69
  82
  178
  297
  442
  615
  819
  1,055
  1,323
  1,624
  1,958
  2,544
  2,943
  3,374
  3,837
  4,329
  4,851
  5,401
  5,980
  6,587
  7,222
  7,884
  8,574
  9,292
  10,039
  10,816
  11,623
  12,461
  13,333
  14,238
  15,180
Net income, $m
  -207
  223
  480
  802
  1,194
  1,663
  2,215
  2,852
  3,577
  4,391
  5,294
  6,878
  7,958
  9,123
  10,373
  11,704
  13,115
  14,603
  16,169
  17,809
  19,525
  21,316
  23,181
  25,123
  27,143
  29,243
  31,425
  33,692
  36,048
  38,496
  41,042

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  4,709
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  20,893
  22,935
  31,678
  42,705
  56,297
  72,704
  92,138
  114,764
  140,702
  170,026
  202,768
  238,925
  278,463
  321,327
  367,451
  416,758
  469,173
  524,625
  583,053
  644,411
  708,666
  775,805
  845,834
  918,778
  994,684
  1,073,616
  1,155,660
  1,240,921
  1,329,522
  1,421,603
  1,517,325
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  16,184
  22,935
  31,678
  42,705
  56,297
  72,704
  92,138
  114,764
  140,702
  170,026
  202,768
  238,925
  278,463
  321,327
  367,451
  416,758
  469,173
  524,625
  583,053
  644,411
  708,666
  775,805
  845,834
  918,778
  994,684
  1,073,616
  1,155,660
  1,240,921
  1,329,522
  1,421,603
  1,517,325
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.172
  0.172
  0.172
  0.172
  0.172
  0.172
  0.172
  0.172
  0.172
  0.172
  0.172
  0.172
  0.172
  0.172
  0.172
  0.172
  0.172
  0.172
  0.172
  0.172
  0.172
  0.172
  0.172
  0.172
  0.172
  0.172
  0.172
  0.172
  0.172
  0.172
  0.172
Average production assets, $m
  2,625
  3,720
  5,138
  6,927
  9,131
  11,792
  14,944
  18,614
  22,821
  27,578
  32,888
  38,753
  45,166
  52,118
  59,599
  67,596
  76,098
  85,092
  94,569
  104,521
  114,943
  125,832
  137,191
  149,022
  161,334
  174,136
  187,443
  201,272
  215,643
  230,578
  246,104
Working capital, $m
  2,259
  -2,059
  -2,844
  -3,834
  -5,055
  -6,528
  -8,272
  -10,304
  -12,633
  -15,266
  -18,205
  -21,452
  -25,001
  -28,850
  -32,991
  -37,418
  -42,124
  -47,103
  -52,349
  -57,858
  -63,627
  -69,655
  -75,942
  -82,492
  -89,307
  -96,394
  -103,760
  -111,415
  -119,370
  -127,637
  -136,231
Total debt, $m
  6,009
  8,997
  14,155
  20,661
  28,680
  38,360
  49,826
  63,176
  78,479
  95,780
  115,098
  136,431
  159,758
  185,048
  212,261
  241,352
  272,277
  304,994
  339,466
  375,667
  413,578
  453,190
  494,507
  537,544
  582,328
  628,898
  677,305
  727,608
  779,883
  834,211
  890,686
Total liabilities, $m
  10,543
  13,532
  18,690
  25,196
  33,215
  42,895
  54,361
  67,711
  83,014
  100,315
  119,633
  140,966
  164,293
  189,583
  216,796
  245,887
  276,812
  309,529
  344,001
  380,202
  418,113
  457,725
  499,042
  542,079
  586,863
  633,433
  681,840
  732,143
  784,418
  838,746
  895,221
Total equity, $m
  10,349
  9,403
  12,988
  17,509
  23,082
  29,809
  37,776
  47,053
  57,688
  69,711
  83,135
  97,959
  114,170
  131,744
  150,655
  170,871
  192,361
  215,096
  239,052
  264,208
  290,553
  318,080
  346,792
  376,699
  407,820
  440,183
  473,821
  508,778
  545,104
  582,857
  622,103
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  20,892
  22,935
  31,678
  42,705
  56,297
  72,704
  92,137
  114,764
  140,702
  170,026
  202,768
  238,925
  278,463
  321,327
  367,451
  416,758
  469,173
  524,625
  583,053
  644,410
  708,666
  775,805
  845,834
  918,778
  994,683
  1,073,616
  1,155,661
  1,240,921
  1,329,522
  1,421,603
  1,517,324
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.581
  0.960
  1.090
  1.180
  1.240
  1.290
  1.320
  1.340
  1.360
  1.370
  1.380
  1.390
  1.400
  1.400
  1.410
  1.410
  1.420
  1.420
  1.420
  1.420
  1.420
  1.420
  1.430
  1.430
  1.430
  1.430
  1.430
  1.430
  1.430
  1.430
  1.430
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.409
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -207
  223
  480
  802
  1,194
  1,663
  2,215
  2,852
  3,577
  4,391
  5,294
  6,878
  7,958
  9,123
  10,373
  11,704
  13,115
  14,603
  16,169
  17,809
  19,525
  21,316
  23,181
  25,123
  27,143
  29,243
  31,425
  33,692
  36,048
  38,496
  41,042
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  104
  934
  982
  1,041
  1,115
  1,203
  1,309
  1,431
  1,571
  1,730
  1,907
  1,292
  1,506
  1,737
  1,987
  2,253
  2,537
  2,836
  3,152
  3,484
  3,831
  4,194
  4,573
  4,967
  5,378
  5,805
  6,248
  6,709
  7,188
  7,686
  8,203
Funds from operations, $m
  1,256
  1,157
  1,462
  1,843
  2,309
  2,867
  3,523
  4,283
  5,148
  6,120
  7,201
  8,170
  9,463
  10,861
  12,359
  13,957
  15,651
  17,440
  19,321
  21,293
  23,356
  25,510
  27,754
  30,091
  32,521
  35,047
  37,673
  40,401
  43,236
  46,182
  49,245
Change in working capital, $m
  493
  -607
  -785
  -990
  -1,220
  -1,473
  -1,745
  -2,031
  -2,329
  -2,633
  -2,940
  -3,246
  -3,550
  -3,849
  -4,141
  -4,427
  -4,706
  -4,979
  -5,246
  -5,509
  -5,769
  -6,028
  -6,287
  -6,549
  -6,815
  -7,087
  -7,366
  -7,655
  -7,955
  -8,267
  -8,594
Cash from operations, $m
  763
  1,764
  2,247
  2,833
  3,529
  4,340
  5,268
  6,314
  7,477
  8,753
  10,141
  11,416
  13,013
  14,709
  16,501
  18,384
  20,357
  22,418
  24,567
  26,802
  29,125
  31,538
  34,042
  36,640
  39,336
  42,134
  45,039
  48,056
  51,191
  54,450
  57,839
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -87
  -124
  -171
  -231
  -304
  -393
  -498
  -620
  -761
  -919
  -1,096
  -1,292
  -1,506
  -1,737
  -1,987
  -2,253
  -2,537
  -2,836
  -3,152
  -3,484
  -3,831
  -4,194
  -4,573
  -4,967
  -5,378
  -5,805
  -6,248
  -6,709
  -7,188
  -7,686
New CAPEX, $m
  -100
  -1,096
  -1,418
  -1,788
  -2,205
  -2,661
  -3,152
  -3,670
  -4,207
  -4,756
  -5,311
  -5,864
  -6,413
  -6,953
  -7,481
  -7,997
  -8,501
  -8,994
  -9,477
  -9,952
  -10,422
  -10,890
  -11,358
  -11,831
  -12,312
  -12,802
  -13,307
  -13,829
  -14,371
  -14,935
  -15,526
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -2,868
  -1,183
  -1,542
  -1,959
  -2,436
  -2,965
  -3,545
  -4,168
  -4,827
  -5,517
  -6,230
  -6,960
  -7,705
  -8,459
  -9,218
  -9,984
  -10,754
  -11,531
  -12,313
  -13,104
  -13,906
  -14,721
  -15,552
  -16,404
  -17,279
  -18,180
  -19,112
  -20,077
  -21,080
  -22,123
  -23,212
Free cash flow, $m
  -2,105
  581
  705
  873
  1,094
  1,374
  1,723
  2,146
  2,649
  3,236
  3,911
  4,455
  5,309
  6,251
  7,282
  8,400
  9,602
  10,888
  12,254
  13,698
  15,220
  16,817
  18,489
  20,236
  22,057
  23,954
  25,927
  27,979
  30,111
  32,326
  34,628
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  1,433
  3,985
  5,158
  6,506
  8,019
  9,680
  11,466
  13,350
  15,304
  17,301
  19,318
  21,332
  23,327
  25,290
  27,213
  29,091
  30,925
  32,717
  34,473
  36,201
  37,910
  39,612
  41,317
  43,037
  44,784
  46,570
  48,406
  50,304
  52,274
  54,328
  56,476
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  1,572
  2,544
  3,104
  3,719
  4,379
  5,064
  5,753
  6,425
  7,058
  7,632
  8,130
  7,946
  8,253
  8,451
  8,538
  8,512
  8,376
  8,132
  7,787
  7,347
  6,820
  6,212
  5,531
  4,784
  3,978
  3,119
  2,214
  1,265
  279
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  1,778
  6,529
  8,262
  10,225
  12,398
  14,744
  17,219
  19,775
  22,362
  24,933
  27,448
  29,278
  31,580
  33,741
  35,751
  37,603
  39,301
  40,849
  42,260
  43,548
  44,730
  45,824
  46,848
  47,821
  48,762
  49,689
  50,620
  51,569
  52,553
  54,328
  56,476
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -113
  7,110
  8,968
  11,098
  13,491
  16,118
  18,942
  21,921
  25,011
  28,170
  31,359
  33,734
  36,889
  39,993
  43,033
  46,003
  48,903
  51,736
  54,513
  57,246
  59,950
  62,640
  65,337
  68,057
  70,819
  73,643
  76,547
  79,548
  82,664
  86,654
  91,103
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -3,904
  -2,766
  -3,585
  -4,521
  -5,573
  -6,727
  -7,968
  -9,277
  -10,635
  -12,023
  -13,424
  -14,824
  -16,211
  -17,575
  -18,911
  -20,216
  -21,490
  -22,735
  -23,956
  -25,157
  -26,345
  -27,527
  -28,712
  -29,907
  -31,121
  -32,362
  -33,638
  -34,957
  -36,326
  -37,753
  -39,246
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  3,712
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  8,055
  5,383
  6,577
  7,919
  9,391
  10,974
  12,644
  14,376
  16,147
  17,934
  18,910
  20,678
  22,418
  24,122
  25,787
  27,413
  29,001
  30,558
  32,090
  33,605
  35,113
  36,625
  38,149
  39,698
  41,281
  42,909
  44,591
  46,338
  48,901
  51,858
Discount rate, %
 
  5.20
  5.46
  5.73
  6.02
  6.32
  6.64
  6.97
  7.32
  7.68
  8.07
  8.47
  8.89
  9.34
  9.81
  10.30
  10.81
  11.35
  11.92
  12.51
  13.14
  13.80
  14.49
  15.21
  15.97
  16.77
  17.61
  18.49
  19.41
  20.38
  21.40
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  7,657
  4,840
  5,564
  6,268
  6,913
  7,463
  7,890
  8,171
  8,294
  8,256
  7,732
  7,438
  7,023
  6,512
  5,930
  5,305
  4,662
  4,026
  3,415
  2,845
  2,327
  1,867
  1,469
  1,133
  856
  633
  457
  322
  225
  154
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  86.4
  76.1
  68.1
  61.8
  56.6
  52.5
  49.1
  46.2
  43.8
  41.8
  40.3
  38.9
  37.8
  36.8
  35.9
  35.2
  34.6
  34.1
  33.7
  33.4
  33.1
  32.8
  32.6
  32.5
  32.4
  32.3
  32.3
  32.3
  32.3
  32.3

Ctrip.com International, Ltd. (Ctrip) is a travel service provider for accommodation reservation, transportation ticketing, packaged tours and corporate travel management in China. The Company aggregates hotel and transportation information to enable business and leisure travelers to make bookings. It helps leisure travelers book tour packages and guided tours, and helps corporate clients manage their travel requirements. In addition, it offers a range of other travel-related services, including travelers' reviews, attraction tickets, travel-related financing and car services, and travel insurance and visa services to meet the various booking and travelling needs of both leisure and business travelers. It also offers independent leisure travelers bundled packaged-tour products, including group tours, semi-group tours and private tours or packaged tours with different transportation arrangements, such as cruise, bus or self-driving.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Ctrip.com International ADR (CTRP)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -14.7
Price to Sales 1.1
Price to Book 0.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 4
Price to Free Cash Flow 4.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 76.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 5.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 1.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 5
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 48.4%
Total Debt to Equity 58.1%
Interest Coverage -2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -0.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.3%
Return On Total Capital -1.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.7%
Return On Equity -2.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.2%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 75.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 73%
EBITDA Margin -2.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.7%
Operating Margin -8.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.5%
Pre-Tax Margin -9.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.8%
Net Profit Margin -7.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.3%
Effective Tax Rate -27.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 27.9%
Payout Ratio 0%

CTRP stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CTRP stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2782 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Ctrip.com International ADR. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Ctrip.com International ADR. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CTRP stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 41.8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.2%, whose default value for CTRP is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Ctrip.com International ADR, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Ctrip.com International ADR.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CTRP stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 96.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CTRP stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Ctrip.com International ADR.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Ctrip.com International ADR. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CTRP stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CTRP are equal to 94.3%.

Life of production assets of 96 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Ctrip.com International ADR operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CTRP is equal to -52.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $10349 million for Ctrip.com International ADR - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 531.293 million for Ctrip.com International ADR is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Ctrip.com International ADR at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $25.2 billion.

RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating
PCLN Priceline Grou 1,926.71 2,324.07  buy
EXPE Expedia 126.89 409.22  str.buy
TZOO Travelzoo 6.67 3.59  sell
TOUR Tuniu ADR 8.65 1.24  str.sell
MMYT MakeMyTrip 31.20 9.48  str.sell
TRIP TripAdvisor 35.62 30.19  hold
CEA China Eastern 39.94 21.42  sell

COMPANY NEWS

▶ Ctrip and OpenTable Announce Partnership   [Jan-10-18 08:30AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Ctrip and OpenTable Announce Partnership   [Jan-09-18 08:00PM  PR Newswire]
▶ 5 Chinese Growth Stocks to Buy in 2018   [Jan-08-18 09:34PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Ctrip's Liang on China's Demographic Challenges   [Dec-18-17 09:59PM  Bloomberg Video]
▶ Ctrip and Big Bus Tours Signs Strategic Agreement   [Nov-26-17 10:53PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Despegar.com Has a Lot to Prove on Thursday   [Nov-14-17 01:36PM  Motley Fool]
▶ How the MeituanDianping Investment Could Help Priceline   [Nov-03-17 10:31AM  Market Realist]
▶ [$$] South Koreas Companies Eager for End to Costly Spat With China   [Nov-02-17 12:48AM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Ctrip.Com tops Street 3Q forecasts   [Nov-01-17 07:08PM  Associated Press]
▶ 3 Stocks That Look Just Like Priceline in 1999   [Oct-18-17 02:00PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Ctrip.com Trying To Close In On Key Technical Measure   [Oct-05-17 03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ [$$] Ctrip Hits Turbulence Despite Chinas Travel Boom   [Oct-04-17 12:34AM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Expedias Valuation: Whats Priced In?   [07:36AM  Market Realist]
▶ Ctrip CEO Sun Calls BRICs Buying Power Significant   [Sep-04-17 07:26PM  Bloomberg Video]
▶ Ctrip.Com beats Street 2Q forecasts   [Aug-31-17 08:03PM  Associated Press]
▶ Could TripAdvisors Leverage Rise in 2017?   [Aug-10-17 05:05PM  Market Realist]
▶ Alibaba & Marriott Form JV To Tap Millions of Travelers   [Aug-07-17 09:16AM  Barrons.com]
▶ Why Pricelines Second-Quarter Margin Is Expected to Fall   [Aug-04-17 09:09AM  Market Realist]
▶ Chinese stocks are getting slammed   [Aug-02-17 12:17PM  Yahoo Finance]
▶ Baidu Shares Surging on a Big Second Quarter   [Jul-31-17 10:55AM  Investopedia]
▶ Alibaba Gets The Buzz, But This Other Chinese Stock May Take Off   [Jul-27-17 04:15PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ [$$] Alibaba, JD Battle Pressures Margins   [Jul-20-17 11:08AM  Barrons.com]
▶ Chinese Tourism Giant Ctrip Looks to Go Global   [Jun-14-17 12:56AM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Why These 4 Tech Stocks May Beat Apple, Facebook   [Jun-13-17 06:15PM  Investopedia]
▶ Chinese Tourism Giant Ctrip Looks to Go Global   [01:59PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ [$$] Ctrip.com: We Can Grow at Home and Overseas   [Jun-09-17 05:18AM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ [$$] 5 Tech Stocks for the Long Run   [Jun-06-17 07:26AM  Barrons.com]
▶ 3 Top Stocks for Your IRA in May   [01:04PM  Motley Fool]
▶ [$$] Chinese Travel Site Ctrip Looks to Tap Overseas Cash Stash for Deals   [May-12-17 12:53PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Ctrip: Buy the Dip?   [May-11-17 11:19PM  Barrons.com]
Financial statements of CTRP
Follow us on:   twitter   twitter   twitter   twitter

ASSET ALLOCATION

About X-FIN       Site news       Privacy policy       Terms of use       FAQ

Copyright © X-FIN.com 2005-2018. All rigths reserved.