Intrinsic value of Cubic - CUB

Previous Close

$72.05

  Intrinsic Value

$108.10

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+50%

Previous close

$72.05

 
Intrinsic value

$108.10

 
Up/down potential

+50%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of CUB stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  11.30
  10.67
  10.10
  9.59
  9.13
  8.72
  8.35
  8.01
  7.71
  7.44
  7.20
  6.98
  6.78
  6.60
  6.44
  6.30
  6.17
  6.05
  5.95
  5.85
  5.77
  5.69
  5.62
  5.56
  5.50
  5.45
  5.41
  5.37
  5.33
  5.30
Revenue, $m
  1,654
  1,830
  2,015
  2,208
  2,410
  2,620
  2,839
  3,067
  3,303
  3,549
  3,804
  4,070
  4,346
  4,632
  4,931
  5,241
  5,565
  5,901
  6,252
  6,618
  6,999
  7,398
  7,813
  8,248
  8,702
  9,176
  9,672
  10,191
  10,734
  11,303
Variable operating expenses, $m
  940
  1,036
  1,136
  1,241
  1,351
  1,465
  1,584
  1,707
  1,836
  1,969
  2,067
  2,211
  2,361
  2,517
  2,679
  2,848
  3,023
  3,206
  3,397
  3,596
  3,803
  4,019
  4,245
  4,481
  4,728
  4,985
  5,255
  5,537
  5,832
  6,141
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  647
  661
  676
  691
  706
  721
  737
  753
  770
  787
  804
  822
  840
  858
  877
  897
  916
  937
  957
  978
  1,000
  1,022
  1,044
  1,067
  1,091
  1,115
  1,139
  1,164
  1,190
  1,216
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,587
  1,697
  1,812
  1,932
  2,057
  2,186
  2,321
  2,460
  2,606
  2,756
  2,871
  3,033
  3,201
  3,375
  3,556
  3,745
  3,939
  4,143
  4,354
  4,574
  4,803
  5,041
  5,289
  5,548
  5,819
  6,100
  6,394
  6,701
  7,022
  7,357
Operating income, $m
  67
  134
  203
  277
  354
  434
  518
  606
  697
  793
  933
  1,037
  1,145
  1,257
  1,374
  1,497
  1,625
  1,758
  1,898
  2,044
  2,197
  2,357
  2,524
  2,700
  2,883
  3,076
  3,278
  3,490
  3,712
  3,946
EBITDA, $m
  142
  212
  285
  363
  444
  528
  617
  709
  805
  906
  1,010
  1,119
  1,233
  1,351
  1,474
  1,603
  1,738
  1,878
  2,025
  2,178
  2,339
  2,507
  2,682
  2,867
  3,060
  3,262
  3,474
  3,697
  3,930
  4,175
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  14
  18
  22
  26
  31
  35
  40
  46
  51
  56
  62
  68
  74
  81
  88
  95
  102
  110
  118
  126
  134
  143
  153
  162
  173
  183
  195
  206
  218
  231
Earnings before tax, $m
  53
  116
  182
  251
  323
  399
  478
  560
  646
  736
  871
  968
  1,070
  1,176
  1,287
  1,402
  1,523
  1,649
  1,781
  1,918
  2,062
  2,213
  2,371
  2,537
  2,711
  2,893
  3,084
  3,284
  3,494
  3,715
Tax expense, $m
  14
  31
  49
  68
  87
  108
  129
  151
  175
  199
  235
  261
  289
  318
  347
  379
  411
  445
  481
  518
  557
  598
  640
  685
  732
  781
  833
  887
  943
  1,003
Net income, $m
  39
  85
  133
  183
  236
  291
  349
  409
  472
  537
  636
  707
  781
  859
  939
  1,024
  1,112
  1,204
  1,300
  1,400
  1,506
  1,616
  1,731
  1,852
  1,979
  2,112
  2,251
  2,397
  2,551
  2,712

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,487
  1,646
  1,812
  1,986
  2,167
  2,356
  2,553
  2,758
  2,970
  3,191
  3,421
  3,660
  3,908
  4,166
  4,434
  4,713
  5,004
  5,307
  5,622
  5,951
  6,294
  6,653
  7,026
  7,417
  7,825
  8,252
  8,698
  9,165
  9,653
  10,165
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,487
  1,646
  1,812
  1,986
  2,167
  2,356
  2,553
  2,758
  2,970
  3,191
  3,421
  3,660
  3,908
  4,166
  4,434
  4,713
  5,004
  5,307
  5,622
  5,951
  6,294
  6,653
  7,026
  7,417
  7,825
  8,252
  8,698
  9,165
  9,653
  10,165
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.112
  1.112
  1.112
  1.112
  1.112
  1.112
  1.112
  1.112
  1.112
  1.112
  1.112
  1.112
  1.112
  1.112
  1.112
  1.112
  1.112
  1.112
  1.112
  1.112
  1.112
  1.112
  1.112
  1.112
  1.112
  1.112
  1.112
  1.112
  1.112
  1.112
Average production assets, $m
  379
  419
  461
  506
  552
  600
  650
  702
  756
  813
  871
  932
  995
  1,061
  1,129
  1,200
  1,274
  1,351
  1,432
  1,515
  1,603
  1,694
  1,789
  1,889
  1,993
  2,101
  2,215
  2,334
  2,458
  2,588
Working capital, $m
  258
  286
  314
  345
  376
  409
  443
  478
  515
  554
  593
  635
  678
  723
  769
  818
  868
  921
  975
  1,032
  1,092
  1,154
  1,219
  1,287
  1,357
  1,431
  1,509
  1,590
  1,675
  1,763
Total debt, $m
  328
  405
  485
  569
  657
  749
  844
  943
  1,046
  1,153
  1,264
  1,379
  1,500
  1,624
  1,754
  1,889
  2,030
  2,177
  2,329
  2,489
  2,655
  2,828
  3,009
  3,198
  3,395
  3,602
  3,818
  4,044
  4,280
  4,528
Total liabilities, $m
  720
  797
  877
  961
  1,049
  1,140
  1,236
  1,335
  1,438
  1,545
  1,656
  1,771
  1,891
  2,016
  2,146
  2,281
  2,422
  2,569
  2,721
  2,880
  3,047
  3,220
  3,401
  3,590
  3,787
  3,994
  4,210
  4,436
  4,672
  4,920
Total equity, $m
  767
  849
  935
  1,025
  1,118
  1,216
  1,317
  1,423
  1,533
  1,647
  1,765
  1,888
  2,016
  2,150
  2,288
  2,432
  2,582
  2,738
  2,901
  3,071
  3,248
  3,433
  3,626
  3,827
  4,038
  4,258
  4,488
  4,729
  4,981
  5,245
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,487
  1,646
  1,812
  1,986
  2,167
  2,356
  2,553
  2,758
  2,971
  3,192
  3,421
  3,659
  3,907
  4,166
  4,434
  4,713
  5,004
  5,307
  5,622
  5,951
  6,295
  6,653
  7,027
  7,417
  7,825
  8,252
  8,698
  9,165
  9,653
  10,165
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.430
  0.480
  0.520
  0.560
  0.590
  0.620
  0.640
  0.660
  0.680
  0.700
  0.720
  0.730
  0.740
  0.760
  0.770
  0.780
  0.790
  0.790
  0.800
  0.810
  0.820
  0.820
  0.830
  0.840
  0.840
  0.850
  0.850
  0.860
  0.860
  0.860
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.516
  0.516
  0.516
  0.516
  0.516
  0.516
  0.516
  0.516
  0.516
  0.516
  0.516
  0.516
  0.516
  0.516
  0.516
  0.516
  0.516
  0.516
  0.516
  0.516
  0.516
  0.516
  0.516
  0.516
  0.516
  0.516
  0.516
  0.516
  0.516
  0.516

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  39
  85
  133
  183
  236
  291
  349
  409
  472
  537
  636
  707
  781
  859
  939
  1,024
  1,112
  1,204
  1,300
  1,400
  1,506
  1,616
  1,731
  1,852
  1,979
  2,112
  2,251
  2,397
  2,551
  2,712
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  75
  78
  82
  86
  90
  94
  99
  103
  108
  113
  77
  82
  88
  94
  100
  106
  113
  120
  127
  134
  142
  150
  158
  167
  176
  186
  196
  207
  218
  229
Funds from operations, $m
  114
  163
  215
  269
  326
  385
  447
  512
  580
  650
  713
  789
  869
  952
  1,039
  1,130
  1,224
  1,323
  1,427
  1,535
  1,647
  1,766
  1,889
  2,019
  2,155
  2,298
  2,447
  2,604
  2,768
  2,941
Change in working capital, $m
  26
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  48
  50
  53
  55
  57
  60
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  77
  81
  85
  89
Cash from operations, $m
  87
  135
  186
  239
  294
  353
  413
  477
  543
  612
  673
  748
  826
  908
  993
  1,081
  1,174
  1,271
  1,372
  1,477
  1,588
  1,704
  1,825
  1,951
  2,084
  2,224
  2,370
  2,523
  2,683
  2,852
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -30
  -34
  -37
  -41
  -45
  -49
  -53
  -58
  -62
  -67
  -72
  -77
  -82
  -88
  -94
  -100
  -106
  -113
  -120
  -127
  -134
  -142
  -150
  -158
  -167
  -176
  -186
  -196
  -207
  -218
New CAPEX, $m
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -63
  -66
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -84
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -99
  -104
  -109
  -114
  -119
  -124
  -130
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -69
  -74
  -79
  -85
  -91
  -97
  -103
  -110
  -116
  -123
  -130
  -138
  -145
  -154
  -162
  -171
  -180
  -190
  -200
  -211
  -221
  -233
  -245
  -257
  -271
  -285
  -300
  -315
  -331
  -348
Free cash flow, $m
  19
  61
  106
  154
  203
  256
  310
  367
  427
  489
  543
  610
  681
  754
  831
  910
  994
  1,081
  1,172
  1,267
  1,366
  1,471
  1,579
  1,694
  1,813
  1,939
  2,070
  2,208
  2,353
  2,504
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  73
  77
  80
  84
  88
  91
  95
  99
  103
  107
  111
  116
  120
  125
  130
  135
  141
  147
  153
  159
  166
  173
  181
  189
  198
  206
  216
  226
  236
  247
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  39
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  112
  77
  80
  84
  88
  91
  95
  99
  103
  107
  111
  116
  120
  125
  130
  135
  141
  147
  153
  159
  166
  173
  181
  189
  198
  206
  216
  226
  236
  247
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  131
  138
  187
  238
  291
  347
  405
  466
  530
  596
  654
  726
  801
  879
  960
  1,046
  1,134
  1,227
  1,325
  1,426
  1,533
  1,644
  1,760
  1,883
  2,011
  2,145
  2,286
  2,434
  2,589
  2,752
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -102
  -106
  -110
  -114
  -119
  -123
  -128
  -133
  -138
  -144
  -150
  -156
  -163
  -170
  -177
  -185
  -193
  -202
  -211
  -220
  -230
  -241
  -252
  -264
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  53
  56
  101
  148
  198
  250
  304
  361
  420
  482
  535
  602
  673
  746
  822
  901
  984
  1,071
  1,162
  1,256
  1,355
  1,459
  1,568
  1,681
  1,800
  1,925
  2,056
  2,193
  2,337
  2,488
Discount rate, %
  6.00
  6.30
  6.62
  6.95
  7.29
  7.66
  8.04
  8.44
  8.86
  9.31
  9.77
  10.26
  10.78
  11.31
  11.88
  12.47
  13.10
  13.75
  14.44
  15.16
  15.92
  16.72
  17.55
  18.43
  19.35
  20.32
  21.33
  22.40
  23.52
  24.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  50
  50
  83
  113
  139
  160
  177
  189
  196
  198
  192
  187
  178
  166
  153
  137
  121
  105
  90
  75
  61
  49
  38
  29
  22
  16
  11
  8
  5
  3
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1

Cubic Corporation (Cubic) designs, integrates and operates systems, products and services that provide situational awareness for its customers in the transportation and defense industries. The Company operates in three business segments across the global transportation and defense markets, which include Cubic Transportation Systems (CTS), Cubic Global Defense (CGD) and Cubic Global Defense Services (CGD Services). The Company's CTS segment is a systems integrator of payment and information technology and services for travel solutions. The Company's CGD Systems is focused on two primary lines of business: training systems and secure communications (SC) products. The Company's CGD Services segment is a provider of training, operations, intelligence, maintenance, technical and other support services to the United States government and its agencies and allied nations. It also provides cross-domain hardware solutions to address multi-level security challenges across common networks.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Cubic (CUB)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -177.7
Price to Sales 1.3
Price to Book 2.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 78.2
Price to Free Cash Flow -162.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 1.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 15.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 16.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 29%
Total Debt to Equity 37%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -0.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.4%
Return On Total Capital -1.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.6%
Return On Equity -1.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.6%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 24.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 24%
EBITDA Margin 3.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.7%
Operating Margin 1.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 0.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.6%
Net Profit Margin -0.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.3%
Effective Tax Rate 375%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 190.5%
Payout Ratio -63.6%

CUB stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CUB stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1485.861 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Cubic. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Cubic. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CUB stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 11.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6%, whose default value for CUB is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Cubic, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Cubic.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CUB stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 57.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $633 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CUB stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Cubic.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Cubic. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CUB stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CUB are equal to 22.9%.

Life of production assets of 11.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Cubic operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CUB is equal to 15.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $689.631 million for Cubic - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 27.252 million for Cubic is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Cubic at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.0 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Cubic: Fiscal 3Q Earnings Snapshot   [Aug-08-18 09:34AM  Associated Press]
▶ Cubic Corporation to Host Earnings Call   [09:00AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Cubic Corporation Announces Semiannual Dividend   [Aug-06-18 04:29PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Cubic Completes Asset Acquisition of Shield Aviation   [Jul-24-18 07:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for May 10th   [May-10-18 09:20AM  Zacks]
▶ Cubic: Fiscal 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [05:13AM  Associated Press]
▶ Earnings Outlook For Cubic   [07:55AM  Benzinga]
▶ Valiant picks up another government business in $135M cash deal   [02:26PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for February 7th   [Feb-07-18 08:28AM  Zacks]
▶ Cubic reports 1Q loss   [Feb-06-18 06:51PM  Associated Press]
▶ Cubic Corporation to Host Earnings Call   [12:15PM  ACCESSWIRE]

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