Intrinsic value of Continental Materials - CUO

Previous Close

$19.06

  Intrinsic Value

$26.40

stock screener

  Rating & Target

buy

+39%

Previous close

$19.06

 
Intrinsic value

$26.40

 
Up/down potential

+39%

 
Rating

buy

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CUO stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  10.95
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  152
  155
  159
  163
  167
  172
  178
  184
  191
  198
  205
  213
  222
  231
  241
  251
  262
  274
  286
  299
  313
  328
  343
  359
  376
  394
  413
  433
  454
  475
  499
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  124
  127
  131
  134
  138
  143
  148
  153
  158
  164
  170
  177
  185
  192
  201
  209
  219
  229
  239
  250
  262
  274
  287
  300
  315
  330
  345
  362
  380
  398
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  26
  26
  27
  28
  28
  29
  30
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  45
  46
  48
  49
  50
  51
  52
Total operating expenses, $m
  146
  150
  153
  158
  162
  166
  172
  178
  183
  189
  196
  203
  211
  219
  227
  237
  246
  257
  268
  279
  291
  304
  317
  331
  345
  361
  378
  394
  412
  431
  450
Operating income, $m
  6
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  16
  17
  19
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  31
  33
  36
  39
  42
  45
  48
EBITDA, $m
  8
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  18
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  36
  39
  42
  45
  48
  52
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
Earnings before tax, $m
  6
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  8
  8
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  18
  20
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  32
  34
  37
  40
  43
  46
Tax expense, $m
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  12
  12
Net income, $m
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  17
  18
  20
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  34

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  78
  80
  81
  83
  86
  88
  91
  94
  98
  101
  105
  109
  114
  119
  124
  129
  135
  141
  147
  154
  161
  168
  176
  184
  193
  202
  212
  222
  233
  244
  256
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  78
  80
  81
  83
  86
  88
  91
  94
  98
  101
  105
  109
  114
  119
  124
  129
  135
  141
  147
  154
  161
  168
  176
  184
  193
  202
  212
  222
  233
  244
  256
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.949
  1.938
  1.963
  1.964
  1.942
  1.955
  1.956
  1.957
  1.949
  1.960
  1.952
  1.954
  1.947
  1.941
  1.944
  1.946
  1.941
  1.943
  1.946
  1.942
  1.944
  1.952
  1.949
  1.951
  1.948
  1.950
  1.948
  1.950
  1.948
  1.947
  1.949
Average production assets, $m
  10
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
Working capital, $m
  26
  29
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  44
  46
  48
  50
  53
  55
  58
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  76
  80
  83
  87
  92
Total debt, $m
  2
  2
  3
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  9
  10
  11
  12
  14
  15
  17
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  32
  35
  37
  40
  43
  47
  50
  53
  57
  61
Total liabilities, $m
  26
  26
  27
  28
  29
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  56
  59
  61
  64
  67
  71
  74
  77
  81
  85
Total equity, $m
  52
  53
  54
  56
  57
  59
  61
  63
  65
  68
  70
  73
  76
  79
  82
  86
  90
  94
  98
  102
  107
  112
  117
  123
  129
  135
  141
  148
  155
  163
  171
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  78
  79
  81
  84
  86
  88
  91
  94
  98
  102
  105
  109
  114
  118
  123
  129
  135
  141
  147
  153
  160
  168
  176
  184
  193
  202
  212
  222
  232
  244
  256
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.038
  0.050
  0.060
  0.070
  0.080
  0.090
  0.110
  0.120
  0.130
  0.140
  0.160
  0.170
  0.180
  0.200
  0.210
  0.220
  0.230
  0.240
  0.250
  0.260
  0.280
  0.290
  0.290
  0.300
  0.310
  0.320
  0.330
  0.340
  0.340
  0.350
  0.360
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.667
  0.667
  0.667
  0.667
  0.667
  0.667
  0.667
  0.667
  0.667
  0.667
  0.667
  0.667
  0.667
  0.667
  0.667
  0.667
  0.667
  0.667
  0.667
  0.667
  0.667
  0.667
  0.667
  0.667
  0.667
  0.667
  0.667
  0.667
  0.667
  0.667
  0.667

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  17
  18
  20
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  34
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
Funds from operations, $m
  7
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  35
  37
Change in working capital, $m
  -1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
Cash from operations, $m
  8
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  17
  18
  20
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
New CAPEX, $m
  -4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -4
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
Free cash flow, $m
  4
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -4
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -4
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  0
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -4
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  16
  17
  19
  20
  22
  24
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  3
  3
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
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Continental Materials Corporation operates within two industry groups: heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC), and construction products. The Company operates through two segments in each of the two industry groups: the Heating and Cooling segment and the Evaporative Cooling segment in the HVAC industry group, and the Concrete, Aggregates and Construction Supplies (CACS) segment and the Door segment in the Construction Products industry group. The Heating and Cooling segment primarily produces and sells gas-fired wall furnaces, console heaters and fan coils. The Evaporative Cooling segment produces and sells primarily evaporative coolers. The Door segment sells hollow metal doors, door frames and related hardware, wood doors, lavatory fixtures and electronic access and security systems. The Company makes sales to general and sub-contractors, government entities and individuals. Concrete, aggregates and construction supplies are also offered from various locations.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Continental Materials (CUO)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 7.9
Price to Sales 0.2
Price to Book 0.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 4
Price to Free Cash Flow 7.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 10.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 100%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 14.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 3.8%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.1%
Return On Total Capital 7.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Return On Equity 8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Asset Turnover 2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 20.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.9%
EBITDA Margin 5.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.2%
Operating Margin 3.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Pre-Tax Margin 3.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.5%
Net Profit Margin 2.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.1%
Effective Tax Rate 33.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 42.6%
Payout Ratio 0%

CUO stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CUO stock intrinsic value calculation we used $152 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Continental Materials. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Continental Materials. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CUO stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for CUO is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Continental Materials, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Continental Materials.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CUO stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 80.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $25 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CUO stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Continental Materials.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Continental Materials. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CUO stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CUO are equal to 6.3%.

Life of production assets of 8.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Continental Materials operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CUO is equal to 18.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $52 million for Continental Materials - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 1.682 million for Continental Materials is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Continental Materials at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.0 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Miami Dade EG Roofing Nail Listing Change - Update 2   [Mar-28-16 10:46AM  at noodls]
▶ 10-Q for Continental Materials Corp.   [Aug-17  08:13PM  at Company Spotlight]
▶ 10-Q for Continental Materials Corp.   [May-21  08:09PM  at Company Spotlight]
▶ 10-K for Continental Materials Corp.   [Apr-24  08:12PM  at Company Spotlight]
▶ Continental Materials (CUO) Downgraded From Hold to Sell   [Dec-13  08:30AM  at TheStreet]
▶ 10-Q for Continental Materials Corp.   [Nov-19  07:07PM  Company Spotlight]
Financial statements of CUO
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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