Intrinsic value of Covanta Holding - CVA

Previous Close

$15.25

  Intrinsic Value

$0.51

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-97%

  Value-price divergence*

-84%

Previous close

$15.25

 
Intrinsic value

$0.51

 
Up/down potential

-97%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-84%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CVA stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  3.28
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  1,699
  1,733
  1,773
  1,818
  1,870
  1,926
  1,988
  2,056
  2,129
  2,208
  2,293
  2,384
  2,481
  2,584
  2,693
  2,809
  2,932
  3,063
  3,200
  3,346
  3,500
  3,662
  3,833
  4,013
  4,203
  4,404
  4,614
  4,836
  5,069
  5,315
  5,573
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,620
  1,656
  1,698
  1,745
  1,797
  1,854
  1,916
  1,983
  2,056
  2,134
  2,187
  2,275
  2,370
  2,470
  2,577
  2,690
  2,809
  2,936
  3,069
  3,210
  3,359
  3,516
  3,681
  3,856
  4,039
  4,232
  4,436
  4,650
  4,875
  5,112
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,590
  1,620
  1,656
  1,698
  1,745
  1,797
  1,854
  1,916
  1,983
  2,056
  2,134
  2,187
  2,275
  2,370
  2,470
  2,577
  2,690
  2,809
  2,936
  3,069
  3,210
  3,359
  3,516
  3,681
  3,856
  4,039
  4,232
  4,436
  4,650
  4,875
  5,112
Operating income, $m
  109
  113
  117
  120
  125
  129
  134
  140
  146
  153
  160
  197
  205
  214
  223
  233
  243
  254
  265
  277
  290
  303
  317
  332
  348
  365
  382
  400
  420
  440
  461
EBITDA, $m
  316
  336
  343
  352
  362
  373
  385
  398
  413
  428
  444
  462
  481
  501
  522
  544
  568
  593
  620
  648
  678
  709
  743
  778
  814
  853
  894
  937
  982
  1,030
  1,080
Interest expense (income), $m
  150
  154
  158
  163
  169
  175
  183
  191
  200
  210
  220
  231
  243
  256
  269
  283
  299
  315
  332
  350
  369
  389
  411
  433
  457
  482
  508
  535
  564
  595
  627
Earnings before tax, $m
  14
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -34
  -38
  -42
  -46
  -51
  -56
  -61
  -67
  -73
  -79
  -86
  -93
  -101
  -109
  -117
  -126
  -135
  -145
  -155
  -166
Tax expense, $m
  22
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -4
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -34
  -38
  -42
  -46
  -51
  -56
  -61
  -67
  -73
  -79
  -86
  -93
  -101
  -109
  -117
  -126
  -135
  -145
  -155
  -166

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  84
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  4,284
  4,279
  4,377
  4,490
  4,616
  4,756
  4,910
  5,077
  5,258
  5,453
  5,662
  5,886
  6,125
  6,379
  6,650
  6,936
  7,240
  7,562
  7,902
  8,262
  8,642
  9,042
  9,465
  9,910
  10,379
  10,873
  11,393
  11,941
  12,517
  13,123
  13,761
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  4,200
  4,279
  4,377
  4,490
  4,616
  4,756
  4,910
  5,077
  5,258
  5,453
  5,662
  5,886
  6,125
  6,379
  6,650
  6,936
  7,240
  7,562
  7,902
  8,262
  8,642
  9,042
  9,465
  9,910
  10,379
  10,873
  11,393
  11,941
  12,517
  13,123
  13,761
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.405
  0.405
  0.405
  0.405
  0.405
  0.405
  0.405
  0.405
  0.405
  0.405
  0.405
  0.405
  0.405
  0.405
  0.405
  0.405
  0.405
  0.405
  0.405
  0.405
  0.405
  0.405
  0.405
  0.405
  0.405
  0.405
  0.405
  0.405
  0.405
  0.405
  0.405
Average production assets, $m
  3,167
  3,230
  3,305
  3,389
  3,485
  3,590
  3,706
  3,833
  3,969
  4,116
  4,274
  4,443
  4,624
  4,816
  5,020
  5,236
  5,466
  5,709
  5,966
  6,237
  6,524
  6,826
  7,145
  7,481
  7,835
  8,208
  8,601
  9,014
  9,449
  9,907
  10,388
Working capital, $m
  126
  75
  76
  78
  80
  83
  86
  88
  92
  95
  99
  103
  107
  111
  116
  121
  126
  132
  138
  144
  150
  157
  165
  173
  181
  189
  198
  208
  218
  229
  240
Total debt, $m
  2,635
  2,671
  2,760
  2,861
  2,975
  3,101
  3,239
  3,389
  3,552
  3,728
  3,916
  4,117
  4,332
  4,561
  4,805
  5,063
  5,336
  5,626
  5,932
  6,256
  6,597
  6,958
  7,338
  7,739
  8,161
  8,606
  9,074
  9,567
  10,085
  10,631
  11,205
Total liabilities, $m
  3,815
  3,851
  3,940
  4,041
  4,155
  4,281
  4,419
  4,569
  4,732
  4,908
  5,096
  5,297
  5,512
  5,741
  5,985
  6,243
  6,516
  6,806
  7,112
  7,436
  7,777
  8,138
  8,518
  8,919
  9,341
  9,786
  10,254
  10,747
  11,265
  11,811
  12,385
Total equity, $m
  469
  428
  438
  449
  462
  476
  491
  508
  526
  545
  566
  589
  612
  638
  665
  694
  724
  756
  790
  826
  864
  904
  946
  991
  1,038
  1,087
  1,139
  1,194
  1,252
  1,312
  1,376
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  4,284
  4,279
  4,378
  4,490
  4,617
  4,757
  4,910
  5,077
  5,258
  5,453
  5,662
  5,886
  6,124
  6,379
  6,650
  6,937
  7,240
  7,562
  7,902
  8,262
  8,641
  9,042
  9,464
  9,910
  10,379
  10,873
  11,393
  11,941
  12,517
  13,123
  13,761
Debt-to-equity ratio
  5.618
  6.240
  6.300
  6.370
  6.440
  6.520
  6.600
  6.680
  6.760
  6.840
  6.920
  7.000
  7.070
  7.150
  7.230
  7.300
  7.370
  7.440
  7.510
  7.570
  7.630
  7.700
  7.750
  7.810
  7.860
  7.910
  7.960
  8.010
  8.060
  8.100
  8.140
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.092
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -4
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -34
  -38
  -42
  -46
  -51
  -56
  -61
  -67
  -73
  -79
  -86
  -93
  -101
  -109
  -117
  -126
  -135
  -145
  -155
  -166
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  207
  222
  227
  232
  238
  244
  251
  258
  266
  275
  285
  264
  275
  287
  299
  312
  325
  340
  355
  371
  388
  406
  425
  445
  466
  489
  512
  537
  562
  590
  618
Funds from operations, $m
  327
  182
  186
  189
  193
  198
  202
  207
  213
  218
  224
  231
  238
  245
  253
  261
  269
  278
  288
  298
  309
  320
  332
  345
  358
  372
  386
  402
  418
  435
  452
Change in working capital, $m
  45
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
Cash from operations, $m
  282
  181
  184
  187
  191
  195
  200
  204
  209
  215
  221
  227
  233
  240
  248
  256
  264
  273
  282
  292
  302
  313
  325
  337
  350
  363
  377
  392
  408
  424
  441
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -188
  -192
  -197
  -202
  -207
  -214
  -221
  -228
  -236
  -245
  -254
  -264
  -275
  -287
  -299
  -312
  -325
  -340
  -355
  -371
  -388
  -406
  -425
  -445
  -466
  -489
  -512
  -537
  -562
  -590
New CAPEX, $m
  -359
  -64
  -74
  -85
  -95
  -106
  -116
  -126
  -137
  -147
  -158
  -169
  -180
  -192
  -204
  -217
  -229
  -243
  -257
  -271
  -287
  -302
  -319
  -336
  -354
  -373
  -393
  -413
  -435
  -458
  -481
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -254
  -252
  -266
  -282
  -297
  -313
  -330
  -347
  -365
  -383
  -403
  -423
  -444
  -467
  -491
  -516
  -541
  -568
  -597
  -626
  -658
  -690
  -725
  -761
  -799
  -839
  -882
  -925
  -972
  -1,020
  -1,071
Free cash flow, $m
  28
  -72
  -82
  -94
  -106
  -118
  -130
  -143
  -155
  -169
  -182
  -197
  -211
  -227
  -243
  -260
  -277
  -295
  -315
  -335
  -356
  -377
  -401
  -425
  -450
  -476
  -504
  -533
  -564
  -596
  -630
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -60
  67
  89
  101
  114
  126
  138
  150
  163
  175
  188
  201
  215
  229
  243
  258
  274
  290
  306
  324
  342
  361
  380
  401
  422
  445
  468
  493
  519
  546
  574
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  139
  52
  51
  54
  57
  60
  64
  68
  72
  76
  81
  56
  61
  67
  73
  80
  86
  94
  101
  109
  117
  126
  135
  145
  156
  166
  178
  190
  202
  216
  230
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  91
  119
  140
  155
  171
  186
  202
  218
  235
  251
  269
  257
  276
  296
  316
  338
  360
  384
  407
  433
  459
  487
  515
  546
  578
  611
  646
  683
  721
  762
  804
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  119
  48
  57
  61
  65
  68
  72
  76
  80
  83
  87
  61
  65
  69
  74
  78
  83
  88
  93
  98
  103
  109
  115
  121
  128
  135
  142
  149
  157
  165
  174
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  169
  -52
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -64
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -81
  -56
  -61
  -67
  -73
  -80
  -86
  -94
  -101
  -109
  -117
  -126
  -135
  -145
  -156
  -166
  -178
  -190
  -202
  -216
  -230
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  53
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  48
  6
  7
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  7
  6
  5
  4
  2
  0
  -1
  -4
  -6
  -8
  -11
  -14
  -17
  -20
  -24
  -28
  -32
  -36
  -41
  -45
  -50
  -56
Discount rate, %
 
  12.40
  13.02
  13.67
  14.35
  15.07
  15.83
  16.62
  17.45
  18.32
  19.24
  20.20
  21.21
  22.27
  23.38
  24.55
  25.78
  27.07
  28.42
  29.84
  31.33
  32.90
  34.55
  36.27
  38.09
  39.99
  41.99
  44.09
  46.29
  48.61
  51.04
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  43
  5
  5
  5
  4
  3
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  97.1
  94.5
  91.9
  89.2
  86.6
  84.0
  81.3
  78.7
  76.1
  73.6
  71.9
  70.2
  68.5
  66.7
  64.9
  63.0
  61.2
  59.3
  57.5
  55.6
  53.8
  52.0
  50.2
  48.4
  46.6
  44.9
  43.2
  41.6
  40.0
  38.4

Covanta Holding Corporation is a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, owns and operates infrastructure for the conversion of waste to energy, as well as other waste disposal and renewable energy production businesses. The Company operates through North America segment, which consists of waste and energy services operations located primarily in the United States and Canada. Outside of North America, the Company is constructing an energy-from-waste (EfW) facility in Dublin, Ireland. The Company holds interests in an EfW facility in Italy and an infrastructure business in China, which is engaged in EfW operations. These EfW projects generate revenue from three main sources: fees charged for operating projects or processing waste received; the sale of electricity and/or steam, and the sale of ferrous and non-ferrous metals that are recovered from the waste stream as part of the EfW process.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Covanta Holding (CVA)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -495.6
Price to Sales 1.2
Price to Book 4.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 7
Price to Free Cash Flow -25.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 3.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -4.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 13.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 3
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 555.2%
Total Debt to Equity 561.8%
Interest Coverage 1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -2.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -5%
Return On Total Capital -0.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.7%
Return On Equity -0.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.9%
Asset Turnover 0.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 30.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.1%
EBITDA Margin 21.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.2%
Operating Margin 6.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 0.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.2%
Net Profit Margin -0.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.3%
Effective Tax Rate 157.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 277.4%
Payout Ratio -3275%

CVA stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CVA stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1699 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Covanta Holding. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Covanta Holding. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CVA stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 12.4%, whose default value for CVA is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Covanta Holding, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Covanta Holding.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CVA stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 93.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CVA stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.9% for Covanta Holding.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Covanta Holding. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CVA stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CVA are equal to 186.4%.

Life of production assets of 16.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Covanta Holding operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CVA is equal to 4.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $469 million for Covanta Holding - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 131.636 million for Covanta Holding is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Covanta Holding at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.0 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

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▶ Covanta Declares Regular Quarterly Cash Dividend   [Sep-14-17 04:15PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Covanta reports 2Q loss   [Jul-27-17 11:47PM  Associated Press]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for June 27th   [Jun-27-17 10:09AM  Zacks]
▶ 3 Stocks to Consider Buying Near 52-Week Lows   [Jun-02-17 09:35AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Covanta Declares Regular Quarterly Cash Dividend   [May-04-17 05:30PM  PR Newswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Covanta Holding Corp. : May 2, 2017   [May-02-17 03:55PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Covanta reports 1Q loss   [Apr-25-17 05:01PM  Associated Press]
▶ The 4 Best Dividend Stocks in Waste Management   [Mar-29-17 10:13AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Covanta Declares Regular Quarterly Cash Dividend   [Mar-02-17 04:20PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Six 6% Yields (With 60% Upside, Too)   [Jan-27-17 08:47AM  at Forbes]
▶ 3 High-Yield Dividend Stocks to Buy in January   [Dec-24-16 11:21AM  at Motley Fool]
Financial statements of CVA
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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