Intrinsic value of Commercial Vehicle Group - CVGI

Previous Close

$6.68

  Intrinsic Value

$12.86

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+93%

Previous close

$6.68

 
Intrinsic value

$12.86

 
Up/down potential

+93%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of CVGI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  19.60
  18.14
  16.83
  15.64
  14.58
  13.62
  12.76
  11.98
  11.28
  10.66
  10.09
  9.58
  9.12
  8.71
  8.34
  8.01
  7.71
  7.43
  7.19
  6.97
  6.78
  6.60
  6.44
  6.29
  6.16
  6.05
  5.94
  5.85
  5.76
  5.69
Revenue, $m
  903
  1,067
  1,247
  1,442
  1,652
  1,877
  2,116
  2,370
  2,637
  2,918
  3,213
  3,521
  3,842
  4,177
  4,525
  4,887
  5,264
  5,655
  6,062
  6,485
  6,924
  7,381
  7,856
  8,350
  8,865
  9,401
  9,960
  10,543
  11,150
  11,784
Variable operating expenses, $m
  847
  1,000
  1,168
  1,350
  1,547
  1,757
  1,981
  2,218
  2,468
  2,731
  3,004
  3,292
  3,592
  3,905
  4,231
  4,570
  4,922
  5,288
  5,668
  6,063
  6,474
  6,901
  7,345
  7,808
  8,289
  8,790
  9,313
  9,857
  10,426
  11,018
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  16
  17
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
  21
  22
  22
  23
  23
  24
  24
  25
  25
  26
  26
  27
  28
  28
  29
  29
  30
  31
Total operating expenses, $m
  863
  1,017
  1,185
  1,367
  1,565
  1,775
  2,000
  2,237
  2,487
  2,751
  3,024
  3,313
  3,613
  3,927
  4,253
  4,593
  4,945
  5,312
  5,692
  6,088
  6,499
  6,927
  7,371
  7,835
  8,317
  8,818
  9,342
  9,886
  10,456
  11,049
Operating income, $m
  40
  50
  62
  74
  87
  101
  117
  133
  150
  168
  188
  208
  228
  250
  272
  295
  319
  344
  370
  397
  425
  454
  484
  516
  549
  583
  619
  656
  695
  735
EBITDA, $m
  58
  71
  86
  102
  119
  137
  156
  177
  198
  221
  245
  270
  296
  323
  351
  381
  412
  443
  476
  511
  546
  584
  622
  663
  704
  748
  794
  841
  891
  942
Interest expense (income), $m
  19
  16
  22
  28
  35
  43
  51
  60
  70
  80
  90
  101
  113
  125
  138
  151
  165
  179
  194
  209
  225
  242
  259
  277
  296
  315
  336
  357
  379
  402
  426
Earnings before tax, $m
  24
  28
  33
  39
  44
  50
  56
  63
  70
  77
  87
  95
  103
  112
  121
  130
  140
  150
  161
  172
  183
  195
  207
  220
  233
  247
  262
  277
  293
  310
Tax expense, $m
  6
  8
  9
  10
  12
  14
  15
  17
  19
  21
  24
  26
  28
  30
  33
  35
  38
  41
  43
  46
  49
  53
  56
  59
  63
  67
  71
  75
  79
  84
Net income, $m
  18
  21
  24
  28
  32
  37
  41
  46
  51
  56
  64
  69
  76
  82
  88
  95
  102
  110
  117
  125
  134
  142
  151
  161
  170
  181
  191
  202
  214
  226

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  460
  543
  635
  734
  841
  956
  1,078
  1,207
  1,343
  1,486
  1,636
  1,793
  1,956
  2,127
  2,304
  2,488
  2,680
  2,879
  3,087
  3,302
  3,525
  3,758
  4,000
  4,252
  4,514
  4,787
  5,071
  5,368
  5,677
  6,000
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  460
  543
  635
  734
  841
  956
  1,078
  1,207
  1,343
  1,486
  1,636
  1,793
  1,956
  2,127
  2,304
  2,488
  2,680
  2,879
  3,087
  3,302
  3,525
  3,758
  4,000
  4,252
  4,514
  4,787
  5,071
  5,368
  5,677
  6,000
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.963
  1.965
  1.964
  1.965
  1.964
  1.963
  1.963
  1.964
  1.964
  1.964
  1.964
  1.964
  1.964
  1.964
  1.964
  1.964
  1.964
  1.964
  1.964
  1.964
  1.964
  1.964
  1.964
  1.964
  1.964
  1.964
  1.964
  1.964
  1.964
  1.964
Average production assets, $m
  92
  109
  127
  147
  168
  191
  216
  242
  269
  298
  328
  359
  392
  426
  462
  499
  537
  577
  618
  661
  706
  753
  801
  852
  904
  959
  1,016
  1,075
  1,137
  1,202
Working capital, $m
  122
  144
  168
  195
  223
  253
  286
  320
  356
  394
  434
  475
  519
  564
  611
  660
  711
  763
  818
  875
  935
  996
  1,061
  1,127
  1,197
  1,269
  1,345
  1,423
  1,505
  1,591
Total debt, $m
  228
  295
  369
  449
  535
  628
  726
  830
  940
  1,055
  1,176
  1,302
  1,434
  1,571
  1,714
  1,863
  2,018
  2,178
  2,345
  2,518
  2,699
  2,886
  3,081
  3,284
  3,495
  3,715
  3,945
  4,184
  4,433
  4,693
Total liabilities, $m
  371
  438
  512
  592
  678
  770
  869
  973
  1,082
  1,198
  1,319
  1,445
  1,577
  1,714
  1,857
  2,006
  2,160
  2,321
  2,488
  2,661
  2,841
  3,029
  3,224
  3,427
  3,638
  3,858
  4,087
  4,327
  4,576
  4,836
Total equity, $m
  89
  105
  123
  142
  163
  185
  209
  234
  261
  288
  317
  348
  380
  413
  447
  483
  520
  559
  599
  641
  684
  729
  776
  825
  876
  929
  984
  1,041
  1,101
  1,164
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  460
  543
  635
  734
  841
  955
  1,078
  1,207
  1,343
  1,486
  1,636
  1,793
  1,957
  2,127
  2,304
  2,489
  2,680
  2,880
  3,087
  3,302
  3,525
  3,758
  4,000
  4,252
  4,514
  4,787
  5,071
  5,368
  5,677
  6,000
Debt-to-equity ratio
  2.560
  2.800
  3.000
  3.150
  3.280
  3.380
  3.470
  3.550
  3.610
  3.660
  3.710
  3.740
  3.780
  3.810
  3.840
  3.860
  3.880
  3.900
  3.920
  3.930
  3.950
  3.960
  3.970
  3.980
  3.990
  4.000
  4.010
  4.020
  4.030
  4.030
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.194
  0.194
  0.194
  0.194
  0.194
  0.194
  0.194
  0.194
  0.194
  0.194
  0.194
  0.194
  0.194
  0.194
  0.194
  0.194
  0.194
  0.194
  0.194
  0.194
  0.194
  0.194
  0.194
  0.194
  0.194
  0.194
  0.194
  0.194
  0.194
  0.194

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  18
  21
  24
  28
  32
  37
  41
  46
  51
  56
  64
  69
  76
  82
  88
  95
  102
  110
  117
  125
  134
  142
  151
  161
  170
  181
  191
  202
  214
  226
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  18
  21
  24
  28
  31
  35
  39
  44
  49
  54
  57
  62
  68
  73
  80
  86
  93
  99
  107
  114
  122
  130
  138
  147
  156
  165
  175
  185
  196
  207
Funds from operations, $m
  36
  42
  49
  56
  64
  72
  81
  90
  100
  110
  120
  131
  143
  155
  168
  181
  195
  209
  224
  239
  255
  272
  289
  307
  326
  346
  366
  388
  410
  433
Change in working capital, $m
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  59
  62
  64
  67
  69
  72
  75
  79
  82
  86
Cash from operations, $m
  16
  20
  24
  29
  35
  41
  48
  56
  64
  72
  80
  90
  100
  110
  121
  132
  144
  156
  169
  182
  196
  210
  225
  241
  257
  273
  291
  309
  328
  348
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -13
  -16
  -19
  -22
  -25
  -29
  -33
  -37
  -42
  -46
  -51
  -57
  -62
  -68
  -73
  -80
  -86
  -93
  -99
  -107
  -114
  -122
  -130
  -138
  -147
  -156
  -165
  -175
  -185
  -196
New CAPEX, $m
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -65
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -28
  -33
  -37
  -42
  -46
  -52
  -57
  -63
  -69
  -75
  -81
  -88
  -95
  -102
  -109
  -117
  -124
  -133
  -140
  -150
  -159
  -169
  -178
  -188
  -200
  -211
  -222
  -234
  -247
  -261
Free cash flow, $m
  -13
  -13
  -13
  -12
  -12
  -11
  -9
  -7
  -5
  -3
  -1
  2
  5
  8
  12
  16
  20
  24
  28
  33
  37
  42
  47
  52
  57
  63
  69
  74
  81
  87
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  61
  67
  74
  80
  86
  92
  98
  104
  110
  115
  121
  126
  132
  137
  143
  149
  155
  161
  167
  173
  180
  187
  195
  203
  211
  220
  229
  239
  249
  260
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  61
  67
  74
  80
  86
  92
  98
  104
  110
  115
  121
  126
  132
  137
  143
  149
  155
  161
  167
  173
  180
  187
  195
  203
  211
  220
  229
  239
  249
  260
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  48
  54
  61
  68
  75
  82
  89
  97
  104
  112
  120
  128
  137
  146
  155
  164
  174
  184
  195
  206
  217
  229
  242
  255
  269
  283
  298
  314
  330
  347
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -60
  -63
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  34
  38
  43
  48
  54
  60
  66
  72
  78
  85
  91
  98
  105
  113
  120
  129
  137
  146
  155
  164
  174
  184
  195
  206
  218
  230
  243
  256
  270
  284
Discount rate, %
  9.10
  9.56
  10.03
  10.53
  11.06
  11.61
  12.19
  12.80
  13.44
  14.12
  14.82
  15.56
  16.34
  17.16
  18.02
  18.92
  19.86
  20.86
  21.90
  23.00
  24.15
  25.35
  26.62
  27.95
  29.35
  30.82
  32.36
  33.97
  35.67
  37.46
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  31
  32
  32
  32
  32
  31
  29
  27
  25
  23
  20
  17
  15
  12
  10
  8
  6
  5
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Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
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Commercial Vehicle Group, Inc. is a supplier of a range of cab-related products and systems. The Company operates through two segments: the Global Truck and Bus Segment (GTB Segment) and the Global Construction and Agriculture Segment (GCA Segment). The GTB Segment manufactures and sells products, which include Seats, Trim, sleeper boxes, cab structures, structural components and body panels, and mirrors and wiper systems. The GCA Segment manufactures and sells the products, which include Electronic wire harness assemblies and Seats, Wiper systems, Office seating, and Aftermarket seats and components. It supplies products for the commercial vehicle market, including the medium-and heavy-duty truck market, the medium-and heavy-construction vehicle market, and the military, bus, agriculture, mining, industrial equipment and off-road recreational markets. It has manufacturing operations in the United States, Mexico, the United Kingdom, Czech Republic, Ukraine, China, India and Australia.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Commercial Vehicle Group (CVGI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 28.5
Price to Sales 0.3
Price to Book 2.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 4.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 5.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -19.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -26.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -3.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 342.6%
Total Debt to Equity 342.6%
Interest Coverage 1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.7%
Return On Total Capital 2.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.4%
Return On Equity 10.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.7%
Asset Turnover 1.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 13.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.2%
EBITDA Margin 6.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.4%
Operating Margin 3.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.1%
Pre-Tax Margin 1.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.6%
Net Profit Margin 1.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 32.4%
Payout Ratio 0%

CVGI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CVGI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $755.231 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Commercial Vehicle Group. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Commercial Vehicle Group. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CVGI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 19.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 9.1%, whose default value for CVGI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Commercial Vehicle Group, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Commercial Vehicle Group.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CVGI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 93.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $16 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CVGI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 9.6% for Commercial Vehicle Group.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Commercial Vehicle Group. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CVGI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CVGI are equal to 10.2%.

Life of production assets of 5.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Commercial Vehicle Group operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CVGI is equal to 13.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $74.742 million for Commercial Vehicle Group - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 31.054 million for Commercial Vehicle Group is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Commercial Vehicle Group at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Commercial Vehicle Group: 3Q Earnings Snapshot   [Nov-05-18 05:39PM  Associated Press]
▶ 6 Top Stocks With a Handsome Net Profit Margin   [Sep-10-18 09:11AM  Zacks]
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▶ 5 Stocks Riding High on Increasing Cash Flow to Buy Now   [Aug-27-18 04:29PM  InvestorPlace]
▶ Commercial Vehicle Group Launches New FinishTEK Website   [Aug-23-18 08:10AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Commercial Vehicle Group, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [Aug-07-18 08:00AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Commercial Vehicle Group: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [05:13PM  Associated Press]
▶ 5 Hated Growth Stocks That You Shouldnt Ignore   [Jul-20-18 02:04PM  InvestorPlace]
▶ 5 of the Best Stocks Under $10 for 2018   [Jul-06-18 10:15AM  InvestorPlace]
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▶ 5 of the Best Stocks Under $10 for 2018   [Jun-06-18 03:32PM  Zacks]
▶ New Strong Buy Stocks for May 9th   [May-09-18 11:26AM  Zacks]
▶ Commercial Vehicle Group: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-03-18 07:06PM  Associated Press]
▶ 10 Bulletproof Blue-Chip Growth Stocks to Invest In   [Apr-16-18 02:40PM  InvestorPlace]
▶ 7 A-Rated Small-Cap Stocks to Buy   [Mar-16-18 02:30PM  InvestorPlace]
▶ 4 Top-Ranked Liquid Stocks to Snap Up Now   [Mar-15-18 08:44AM  Zacks]
▶ Commercial Vehicle Group posts 4Q loss   [Mar-12-18 04:35PM  Associated Press]
▶ 5 Top Stocks With Striking Net Profit Margin   [Mar-01-18 10:29AM  Zacks]
▶ 5 Top Stocks With a Handsome Net Profit Margin   [Feb-14-18 09:07AM  Zacks]
▶ Commercial Vehicle Group, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [Nov-07-17 07:50AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Commercial Vehicle Group posts 3Q profit   [Nov-06-17 05:13PM  Associated Press]

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