Intrinsic value of Calavo Growers - CVGW

Previous Close

$71.05

  Intrinsic Value

$133.16

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+87%

Previous close

$71.05

 
Intrinsic value

$133.16

 
Up/down potential

+87%

 
Rating

str. buy

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CVGW stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  9.22
  14.80
  13.82
  12.94
  12.14
  11.43
  10.79
  10.21
  9.69
  9.22
  8.80
  8.42
  8.08
  7.77
  7.49
  7.24
  7.02
  6.82
  6.63
  6.47
  6.32
  6.19
  6.07
  5.97
  5.87
  5.78
  5.70
  5.63
  5.57
  5.51
  5.46
Revenue, $m
  936
  1,075
  1,223
  1,381
  1,549
  1,726
  1,912
  2,107
  2,312
  2,525
  2,747
  2,978
  3,218
  3,468
  3,728
  3,998
  4,279
  4,571
  4,874
  5,189
  5,517
  5,859
  6,215
  6,585
  6,972
  7,375
  7,796
  8,235
  8,693
  9,173
  9,674
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  843
  960
  1,083
  1,215
  1,353
  1,499
  1,652
  1,812
  1,979
  2,153
  2,332
  2,520
  2,716
  2,920
  3,131
  3,351
  3,579
  3,817
  4,063
  4,320
  4,588
  4,867
  5,157
  5,459
  5,775
  6,105
  6,448
  6,808
  7,183
  7,575
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  148
  151
  155
  159
  163
  167
  171
  175
  180
  184
  189
  194
  199
  203
  209
  214
  219
  225
  230
  236
  242
  248
  254
  260
  267
  274
  280
  287
  295
  302
Total operating expenses, $m
  875
  991
  1,111
  1,238
  1,374
  1,516
  1,666
  1,823
  1,987
  2,159
  2,337
  2,521
  2,714
  2,915
  3,123
  3,340
  3,565
  3,798
  4,042
  4,293
  4,556
  4,830
  5,115
  5,411
  5,719
  6,042
  6,379
  6,728
  7,095
  7,478
  7,877
Operating income, $m
  61
  84
  112
  143
  175
  210
  246
  284
  324
  366
  410
  457
  504
  554
  605
  659
  714
  772
  833
  895
  961
  1,029
  1,100
  1,174
  1,252
  1,333
  1,417
  1,506
  1,598
  1,695
  1,796
EBITDA, $m
  70
  94
  124
  156
  189
  225
  263
  303
  344
  388
  433
  481
  530
  581
  635
  691
  748
  809
  871
  937
  1,005
  1,076
  1,150
  1,227
  1,307
  1,391
  1,479
  1,571
  1,667
  1,768
  1,873
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  0
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  31
Earnings before tax, $m
  60
  83
  111
  141
  173
  207
  243
  280
  320
  361
  404
  450
  497
  545
  596
  648
  703
  760
  819
  881
  945
  1,012
  1,082
  1,155
  1,231
  1,310
  1,393
  1,480
  1,571
  1,666
  1,765
Tax expense, $m
  22
  23
  30
  38
  47
  56
  66
  76
  86
  97
  109
  122
  134
  147
  161
  175
  190
  205
  221
  238
  255
  273
  292
  312
  332
  354
  376
  400
  424
  450
  477
Net income, $m
  38
  61
  81
  103
  127
  151
  177
  205
  233
  263
  295
  329
  363
  398
  435
  473
  513
  555
  598
  643
  690
  739
  790
  843
  898
  956
  1,017
  1,080
  1,147
  1,216
  1,289

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  14
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  328
  360
  410
  463
  520
  579
  641
  707
  775
  847
  921
  999
  1,080
  1,164
  1,251
  1,341
  1,435
  1,533
  1,635
  1,741
  1,851
  1,965
  2,085
  2,209
  2,339
  2,474
  2,615
  2,762
  2,916
  3,077
  3,245
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  314
  360
  410
  463
  520
  579
  641
  707
  775
  847
  921
  999
  1,080
  1,164
  1,251
  1,341
  1,435
  1,533
  1,635
  1,741
  1,851
  1,965
  2,085
  2,209
  2,339
  2,474
  2,615
  2,762
  2,916
  3,077
  3,245
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.981
  2.986
  2.983
  2.983
  2.979
  2.981
  2.983
  2.980
  2.983
  2.981
  2.983
  2.981
  2.980
  2.979
  2.980
  2.981
  2.982
  2.982
  2.981
  2.980
  2.981
  2.982
  2.981
  2.981
  2.981
  2.981
  2.981
  2.982
  2.981
  2.981
  2.981
Average production assets, $m
  83
  96
  109
  123
  138
  154
  170
  188
  206
  225
  244
  265
  286
  309
  332
  356
  381
  407
  434
  462
  491
  521
  553
  586
  620
  656
  694
  733
  774
  816
  861
Working capital, $m
  26
  35
  40
  46
  51
  57
  63
  70
  76
  83
  91
  98
  106
  114
  123
  132
  141
  151
  161
  171
  182
  193
  205
  217
  230
  243
  257
  272
  287
  303
  319
Total debt, $m
  20
  21
  36
  53
  71
  90
  110
  131
  153
  175
  199
  224
  249
  276
  304
  333
  362
  394
  426
  460
  495
  531
  569
  608
  650
  693
  738
  784
  833
  884
  938
Total liabilities, $m
  114
  115
  130
  147
  165
  184
  204
  225
  247
  269
  293
  318
  343
  370
  398
  427
  456
  488
  520
  554
  589
  625
  663
  702
  744
  787
  832
  878
  927
  978
  1,032
Total equity, $m
  214
  246
  280
  316
  354
  395
  437
  482
  529
  578
  628
  681
  736
  794
  853
  915
  979
  1,046
  1,115
  1,187
  1,262
  1,340
  1,422
  1,507
  1,595
  1,687
  1,783
  1,884
  1,989
  2,099
  2,213
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  328
  361
  410
  463
  519
  579
  641
  707
  776
  847
  921
  999
  1,079
  1,164
  1,251
  1,342
  1,435
  1,534
  1,635
  1,741
  1,851
  1,965
  2,085
  2,209
  2,339
  2,474
  2,615
  2,762
  2,916
  3,077
  3,245
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.093
  0.080
  0.130
  0.170
  0.200
  0.230
  0.250
  0.270
  0.290
  0.300
  0.320
  0.330
  0.340
  0.350
  0.360
  0.360
  0.370
  0.380
  0.380
  0.390
  0.390
  0.400
  0.400
  0.400
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.682
  0.682
  0.682
  0.682
  0.682
  0.682
  0.682
  0.682
  0.682
  0.682
  0.682
  0.682
  0.682
  0.682
  0.682
  0.682
  0.682
  0.682
  0.682
  0.682
  0.682
  0.682
  0.682
  0.682
  0.682
  0.682
  0.682
  0.682
  0.682
  0.682
  0.682

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  38
  61
  81
  103
  127
  151
  177
  205
  233
  263
  295
  329
  363
  398
  435
  473
  513
  555
  598
  643
  690
  739
  790
  843
  898
  956
  1,017
  1,080
  1,147
  1,216
  1,289
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  9
  10
  12
  13
  14
  16
  17
  19
  20
  22
  24
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  39
  41
  44
  47
  49
  52
  55
  59
  62
  65
  69
  73
  77
Funds from operations, $m
  73
  71
  93
  116
  141
  167
  194
  223
  253
  285
  318
  352
  388
  426
  464
  505
  547
  591
  637
  684
  734
  785
  839
  895
  954
  1,015
  1,079
  1,146
  1,216
  1,289
  1,366
Change in working capital, $m
  11
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
Cash from operations, $m
  62
  67
  88
  111
  135
  161
  188
  217
  247
  278
  311
  345
  380
  417
  456
  496
  538
  581
  626
  674
  723
  774
  827
  883
  941
  1,002
  1,065
  1,131
  1,201
  1,273
  1,349
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -7
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -69
  -73
New CAPEX, $m
  -22
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -22
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -31
  -32
  -35
  -37
  -40
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -79
  -82
  -86
  -91
  -96
  -101
  -106
  -112
  -118
Free cash flow, $m
  40
  47
  66
  87
  109
  133
  158
  184
  212
  241
  271
  302
  335
  369
  405
  442
  481
  521
  563
  607
  652
  700
  749
  801
  854
  910
  969
  1,030
  1,094
  1,161
  1,232
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -20
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  36
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -20
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  36
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  21
  61
  82
  104
  127
  152
  178
  205
  234
  264
  295
  327
  361
  396
  433
  471
  511
  552
  596
  640
  687
  736
  787
  840
  895
  953
  1,014
  1,077
  1,143
  1,213
  1,285
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -29
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -64
  -67
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -115
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  29
  48
  68
  89
  111
  135
  160
  187
  215
  244
  274
  306
  339
  373
  409
  447
  486
  526
  568
  612
  658
  706
  755
  807
  861
  918
  977
  1,038
  1,103
  1,170
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  28
  44
  59
  73
  86
  98
  108
  117
  123
  128
  130
  130
  129
  125
  120
  114
  106
  97
  88
  78
  68
  59
  49
  41
  34
  27
  21
  16
  12
  9
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Calavo Growers, Inc. operates in the avocado industry. The Company provides value-added fresh food. The Company distributes its products both domestically and internationally and internationally. It operates in three business segments: Fresh products, Calavo Foods and Renaissance Food Group, LLC (RFG). The Company is engaged in marketing and distributing avocados, prepared avocados and other perishable foods, which allows it to deliver an array of fresh and prepared food products to food distributors, produce wholesalers, supermarkets, convenience stores and restaurants on a worldwide basis. The Company procures avocados principally from California and Mexico. Through its various operating facilities, the Company sorts, packs, and/or ripens avocados, tomatoes and/or Hawaiian grown papayas; processes and packages fresh cut fruit and vegetables, salads, wraps, sandwiches, fresh snacking products and a range of behind-the-glass deli items, and produces and packages guacamole and salsa.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Calavo Growers (CVGW)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 32.6
Price to Sales 1.3
Price to Book 5.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 20
Price to Free Cash Flow 31
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 9.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 22.2%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 25.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0.5%
Total Debt to Equity 9.3%
Interest Coverage 61
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 12.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.4%
Return On Total Capital 16.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.5%
Return On Equity 19%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.3%
Asset Turnover 3.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 11.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.2%
EBITDA Margin 7.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.7%
Operating Margin 6.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 6.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.6%
Net Profit Margin 4.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.4%
Effective Tax Rate 36.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 58%
Payout Ratio 36.8%

CVGW stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CVGW stock intrinsic value calculation we used $936 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Calavo Growers. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Calavo Growers. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CVGW stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 14.8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for CVGW is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Calavo Growers, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Calavo Growers.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CVGW stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 78.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $144 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CVGW stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Calavo Growers.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Calavo Growers. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CVGW stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CVGW are equal to 8.9%.

Life of production assets of 11.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Calavo Growers operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CVGW is equal to 3.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $214 million for Calavo Growers - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 17.539 million for Calavo Growers is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Calavo Growers at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.2 billion.

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Financial statements of CVGW
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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