Intrinsic value of CVR Energy Inc. - CVI

Previous Close

$42.49

  Intrinsic Value

$195.36

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+360%

Previous close

$42.49

 
Intrinsic value

$195.36

 
Up/down potential

+360%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of CVI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 4.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  9.10
  8.69
  8.32
  7.99
  7.69
  7.42
  7.18
  6.96
  6.76
  6.59
  6.43
  6.29
  6.16
  6.04
  5.94
  5.84
  5.76
  5.68
  5.62
  5.55
  5.50
  5.45
  5.40
  5.36
  5.33
  5.29
  5.26
  5.24
  5.21
  5.19
Revenue, $m
  7,772
  8,448
  9,151
  9,882
  10,642
  11,431
  12,252
  13,105
  13,991
  14,913
  15,872
  16,870
  17,909
  18,991
  20,118
  21,294
  22,521
  23,801
  25,137
  26,533
  27,992
  29,517
  31,112
  32,781
  34,527
  36,355
  38,269
  40,274
  42,374
  44,575
Variable operating expenses, $m
  4,485
  4,874
  5,280
  5,702
  6,140
  6,596
  7,069
  7,561
  8,073
  8,605
  9,158
  9,734
  10,333
  10,958
  11,608
  12,287
  12,994
  13,733
  14,504
  15,310
  16,151
  17,031
  17,952
  18,915
  19,922
  20,977
  22,081
  23,238
  24,450
  25,720
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  2,530
  2,586
  2,643
  2,701
  2,761
  2,821
  2,883
  2,947
  3,012
  3,078
  3,146
  3,215
  3,286
  3,358
  3,432
  3,507
  3,584
  3,663
  3,744
  3,826
  3,910
  3,996
  4,084
  4,174
  4,266
  4,360
  4,456
  4,554
  4,654
  4,756
Total operating expenses, $m
  7,015
  7,460
  7,923
  8,403
  8,901
  9,417
  9,952
  10,508
  11,085
  11,683
  12,304
  12,949
  13,619
  14,316
  15,040
  15,794
  16,578
  17,396
  18,248
  19,136
  20,061
  21,027
  22,036
  23,089
  24,188
  25,337
  26,537
  27,792
  29,104
  30,476
Operating income, $m
  757
  987
  1,228
  1,479
  1,741
  2,014
  2,299
  2,596
  2,907
  3,230
  3,568
  3,921
  4,290
  4,675
  5,078
  5,500
  5,942
  6,404
  6,889
  7,397
  7,930
  8,489
  9,076
  9,692
  10,339
  11,018
  11,732
  12,482
  13,270
  14,099
EBITDA, $m
  990
  1,240
  1,501
  1,774
  2,059
  2,356
  2,666
  2,989
  3,325
  3,676
  4,043
  4,426
  4,825
  5,243
  5,680
  6,137
  6,616
  7,116
  7,641
  8,191
  8,768
  9,372
  10,007
  10,673
  11,372
  12,106
  12,877
  13,687
  14,538
  15,432
Interest expense (income), $m
  77
  102
  123
  145
  167
  191
  216
  241
  268
  296
  325
  354
  386
  418
  452
  487
  523
  562
  601
  643
  686
  732
  779
  828
  880
  934
  991
  1,050
  1,112
  1,177
  1,246
Earnings before tax, $m
  655
  864
  1,083
  1,311
  1,550
  1,798
  2,058
  2,328
  2,611
  2,906
  3,214
  3,535
  3,872
  4,224
  4,592
  4,977
  5,380
  5,803
  6,246
  6,711
  7,199
  7,711
  8,248
  8,812
  9,405
  10,027
  10,682
  11,370
  12,093
  12,853
Tax expense, $m
  177
  233
  292
  354
  418
  486
  556
  629
  705
  785
  868
  955
  1,045
  1,140
  1,240
  1,344
  1,453
  1,567
  1,687
  1,812
  1,944
  2,082
  2,227
  2,379
  2,539
  2,707
  2,884
  3,070
  3,265
  3,470
Net income, $m
  478
  631
  791
  957
  1,131
  1,313
  1,502
  1,700
  1,906
  2,121
  2,346
  2,581
  2,826
  3,083
  3,352
  3,633
  3,928
  4,236
  4,560
  4,899
  5,255
  5,629
  6,021
  6,433
  6,865
  7,320
  7,798
  8,300
  8,828
  9,383

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  4,071
  4,425
  4,793
  5,176
  5,574
  5,988
  6,418
  6,865
  7,329
  7,812
  8,314
  8,837
  9,381
  9,948
  10,539
  11,155
  11,797
  12,468
  13,168
  13,899
  14,663
  15,462
  16,298
  17,172
  18,087
  19,044
  20,047
  21,097
  22,197
  23,350
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  4,071
  4,425
  4,793
  5,176
  5,574
  5,988
  6,418
  6,865
  7,329
  7,812
  8,314
  8,837
  9,381
  9,948
  10,539
  11,155
  11,797
  12,468
  13,168
  13,899
  14,663
  15,462
  16,298
  17,172
  18,087
  19,044
  20,047
  21,097
  22,197
  23,350
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.909
  1.909
  1.909
  1.909
  1.909
  1.909
  1.909
  1.909
  1.909
  1.909
  1.909
  1.909
  1.909
  1.909
  1.909
  1.909
  1.909
  1.909
  1.909
  1.909
  1.909
  1.909
  1.909
  1.909
  1.909
  1.909
  1.909
  1.909
  1.909
  1.909
Average production assets, $m
  2,744
  2,982
  3,230
  3,488
  3,756
  4,035
  4,325
  4,626
  4,939
  5,264
  5,603
  5,955
  6,322
  6,704
  7,102
  7,517
  7,950
  8,402
  8,873
  9,366
  9,881
  10,420
  10,983
  11,572
  12,188
  12,833
  13,509
  14,217
  14,958
  15,735
Working capital, $m
  148
  161
  174
  188
  202
  217
  233
  249
  266
  283
  302
  321
  340
  361
  382
  405
  428
  452
  478
  504
  532
  561
  591
  623
  656
  691
  727
  765
  805
  847
Total debt, $m
  1,411
  1,663
  1,925
  2,198
  2,481
  2,776
  3,082
  3,400
  3,730
  4,074
  4,432
  4,804
  5,191
  5,595
  6,016
  6,454
  6,911
  7,389
  7,887
  8,408
  8,952
  9,521
  10,116
  10,738
  11,390
  12,071
  12,785
  13,533
  14,316
  15,137
Total liabilities, $m
  2,899
  3,151
  3,413
  3,686
  3,969
  4,264
  4,570
  4,888
  5,218
  5,562
  5,920
  6,292
  6,679
  7,083
  7,504
  7,942
  8,399
  8,877
  9,375
  9,896
  10,440
  11,009
  11,604
  12,226
  12,878
  13,559
  14,273
  15,021
  15,804
  16,625
Total equity, $m
  1,173
  1,274
  1,381
  1,491
  1,605
  1,725
  1,848
  1,977
  2,111
  2,250
  2,395
  2,545
  2,702
  2,865
  3,035
  3,213
  3,398
  3,591
  3,792
  4,003
  4,223
  4,453
  4,694
  4,945
  5,209
  5,485
  5,773
  6,076
  6,393
  6,725
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  4,072
  4,425
  4,794
  5,177
  5,574
  5,989
  6,418
  6,865
  7,329
  7,812
  8,315
  8,837
  9,381
  9,948
  10,539
  11,155
  11,797
  12,468
  13,167
  13,899
  14,663
  15,462
  16,298
  17,171
  18,087
  19,044
  20,046
  21,097
  22,197
  23,350
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.200
  1.300
  1.390
  1.470
  1.550
  1.610
  1.670
  1.720
  1.770
  1.810
  1.850
  1.890
  1.920
  1.950
  1.980
  2.010
  2.030
  2.060
  2.080
  2.100
  2.120
  2.140
  2.160
  2.170
  2.190
  2.200
  2.210
  2.230
  2.240
  2.250
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  478
  631
  791
  957
  1,131
  1,313
  1,502
  1,700
  1,906
  2,121
  2,346
  2,581
  2,826
  3,083
  3,352
  3,633
  3,928
  4,236
  4,560
  4,899
  5,255
  5,629
  6,021
  6,433
  6,865
  7,320
  7,798
  8,300
  8,828
  9,383
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  233
  253
  274
  296
  318
  342
  367
  392
  419
  446
  475
  505
  536
  568
  602
  637
  674
  712
  752
  794
  837
  883
  931
  981
  1,033
  1,088
  1,145
  1,205
  1,268
  1,333
Funds from operations, $m
  711
  884
  1,064
  1,253
  1,450
  1,655
  1,869
  2,092
  2,324
  2,567
  2,821
  3,086
  3,362
  3,651
  3,954
  4,270
  4,601
  4,948
  5,312
  5,693
  6,092
  6,512
  6,952
  7,413
  7,898
  8,408
  8,943
  9,505
  10,095
  10,716
Change in working capital, $m
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
Cash from operations, $m
  699
  871
  1,051
  1,239
  1,435
  1,640
  1,853
  2,076
  2,308
  2,550
  2,803
  3,067
  3,342
  3,631
  3,932
  4,248
  4,578
  4,924
  5,286
  5,666
  6,065
  6,483
  6,921
  7,382
  7,865
  8,373
  8,906
  9,467
  10,056
  10,674
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -213
  -233
  -253
  -274
  -296
  -318
  -342
  -367
  -392
  -419
  -446
  -475
  -505
  -536
  -568
  -602
  -637
  -674
  -712
  -752
  -794
  -837
  -883
  -931
  -981
  -1,033
  -1,088
  -1,145
  -1,205
  -1,268
New CAPEX, $m
  -227
  -238
  -248
  -258
  -268
  -279
  -290
  -301
  -313
  -325
  -338
  -352
  -367
  -382
  -398
  -415
  -433
  -452
  -472
  -493
  -515
  -538
  -563
  -589
  -616
  -645
  -676
  -708
  -741
  -777
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -440
  -471
  -501
  -532
  -564
  -597
  -632
  -668
  -705
  -744
  -784
  -827
  -872
  -918
  -966
  -1,017
  -1,070
  -1,126
  -1,184
  -1,245
  -1,309
  -1,375
  -1,446
  -1,520
  -1,597
  -1,678
  -1,764
  -1,853
  -1,946
  -2,045
Free cash flow, $m
  258
  400
  550
  707
  871
  1,043
  1,221
  1,408
  1,603
  1,806
  2,018
  2,240
  2,471
  2,713
  2,966
  3,231
  3,508
  3,798
  4,103
  4,422
  4,756
  5,107
  5,475
  5,862
  6,268
  6,695
  7,143
  7,614
  8,109
  8,630
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  241
  252
  262
  273
  283
  295
  306
  318
  331
  344
  358
  372
  387
  404
  421
  439
  457
  477
  498
  521
  544
  569
  595
  622
  651
  682
  714
  748
  783
  821
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  241
  252
  262
  273
  283
  295
  306
  318
  331
  344
  358
  372
  387
  404
  421
  439
  457
  477
  498
  521
  544
  569
  595
  622
  651
  682
  714
  748
  783
  821
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  499
  652
  812
  980
  1,155
  1,337
  1,527
  1,726
  1,933
  2,150
  2,376
  2,612
  2,859
  3,117
  3,387
  3,669
  3,965
  4,276
  4,601
  4,942
  5,300
  5,676
  6,070
  6,484
  6,919
  7,377
  7,857
  8,362
  8,893
  9,451
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -99
  -102
  -106
  -110
  -115
  -119
  -124
  -129
  -134
  -139
  -145
  -151
  -157
  -163
  -170
  -177
  -185
  -193
  -202
  -211
  -220
  -230
  -241
  -252
  -263
  -276
  -289
  -302
  -317
  -332
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  172
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  573
  550
  706
  870
  1,040
  1,218
  1,404
  1,597
  1,800
  2,011
  2,231
  2,461
  2,702
  2,953
  3,217
  3,492
  3,780
  4,083
  4,399
  4,732
  5,080
  5,446
  5,830
  6,233
  6,656
  7,101
  7,568
  8,059
  8,576
  9,119
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  549
  504
  615
  716
  806
  884
  948
  998
  1,034
  1,054
  1,059
  1,050
  1,027
  991
  944
  887
  823
  752
  677
  601
  525
  452
  382
  317
  259
  207
  162
  125
  94
  69
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

CVR Energy, Inc. (CVR Energy) is a holding company. The Company is engaged in the petroleum refining and nitrogen fertilizer manufacturing through its holdings in CVR Refining LP (CVR Refining or the Refining Partnership) and CVR Partners LP (CVR Partners or the Nitrogen Fertilizer Partnership). It operates under two business segments: petroleum (the petroleum and related businesses operated by the Refining Partnership) and nitrogen fertilizer (the nitrogen fertilizer business operated by the Nitrogen Fertilizer Partnership). The Company's Refining Partnership is an independent petroleum refiner and marketer of transportation fuels. Its Nitrogen Fertilizer Partnership produces and markets nitrogen fertilizers in the form of urea and ammonium nitrate (UAN) and ammonia. The petroleum business consists of a coking medium-sour crude oil refinery in Coffeyville, Kansas and a crude oil refinery in Wynnewood, Oklahoma.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  CVR Energy Inc. (CVI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 147.6
Price to Sales 0.8
Price to Book 4.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 13.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 27.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -12%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -39.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -12.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 368
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 135.5%
Total Debt to Equity 135.8%
Interest Coverage 1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.6%
Return On Total Capital 1.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.2%
Return On Equity 2.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 12%
Asset Turnover 1.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 8.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.7%
EBITDA Margin 5.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.6%
Operating Margin 1.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.2%
Pre-Tax Margin -0.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.8%
Net Profit Margin 0.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.9%
Effective Tax Rate 181.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 76%
Payout Ratio 696%

CVI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CVI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $7124 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by CVR Energy Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of CVR Energy Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CVI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 9.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for CVI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of CVR Energy Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of CVR Energy Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CVI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 57.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $2476 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CVI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 8.7% for CVR Energy Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for CVR Energy Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CVI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CVI are equal to 35.3%.

Life of production assets of 11.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in CVR Energy Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CVI is equal to 1.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1246 million for CVR Energy Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 100.634 million for CVR Energy Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of CVR Energy Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $4.3 billion.

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