Intrinsic value of CommVault Systems - CVLT

Previous Close

$68.25

  Intrinsic Value

$7.61

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-89%

Previous close

$68.25

 
Intrinsic value

$7.61

 
Up/down potential

-89%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of CVLT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  9.30
  8.87
  8.48
  8.13
  7.82
  7.54
  7.29
  7.06
  6.85
  6.67
  6.50
  6.35
  6.21
  6.09
  5.98
  5.89
  5.80
  5.72
  5.65
  5.58
  5.52
  5.47
  5.42
  5.38
  5.34
  5.31
  5.28
  5.25
  5.23
  5.20
Revenue, $m
  712
  775
  840
  909
  980
  1,054
  1,130
  1,210
  1,293
  1,379
  1,469
  1,562
  1,659
  1,760
  1,866
  1,976
  2,090
  2,210
  2,334
  2,465
  2,601
  2,743
  2,892
  3,047
  3,210
  3,381
  3,559
  3,746
  3,942
  4,147
Variable operating expenses, $m
  709
  772
  837
  905
  976
  1,049
  1,126
  1,205
  1,288
  1,374
  1,463
  1,556
  1,653
  1,753
  1,858
  1,968
  2,082
  2,201
  2,325
  2,455
  2,590
  2,732
  2,880
  3,035
  3,197
  3,367
  3,545
  3,731
  3,926
  4,130
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  709
  772
  837
  905
  976
  1,049
  1,126
  1,205
  1,288
  1,374
  1,463
  1,556
  1,653
  1,753
  1,858
  1,968
  2,082
  2,201
  2,325
  2,455
  2,590
  2,732
  2,880
  3,035
  3,197
  3,367
  3,545
  3,731
  3,926
  4,130
Operating income, $m
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
EBITDA, $m
  18
  19
  21
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  41
  43
  46
  49
  51
  54
  57
  61
  64
  67
  71
  75
  79
  83
  88
  92
  97
  102
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  0
  2
  4
  6
  8
  10
  12
  14
  17
  19
  22
  25
  28
  30
  33
  37
  40
  43
  47
  51
  55
  59
  63
  68
  72
  77
  82
  88
  93
  99
Earnings before tax, $m
  3
  1
  0
  -2
  -4
  -6
  -8
  -10
  -12
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -21
  -23
  -26
  -29
  -32
  -35
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -48
  -52
  -55
  -59
  -64
  -68
  -73
  -78
  -83
Tax expense, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  2
  1
  0
  -2
  -4
  -6
  -8
  -10
  -12
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -21
  -23
  -26
  -29
  -32
  -35
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -48
  -52
  -55
  -59
  -64
  -68
  -73
  -78
  -83

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  731
  795
  863
  933
  1,006
  1,082
  1,161
  1,243
  1,328
  1,416
  1,508
  1,604
  1,704
  1,807
  1,916
  2,028
  2,146
  2,269
  2,397
  2,530
  2,670
  2,816
  2,969
  3,129
  3,296
  3,471
  3,654
  3,846
  4,047
  4,257
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  731
  795
  863
  933
  1,006
  1,082
  1,161
  1,243
  1,328
  1,416
  1,508
  1,604
  1,704
  1,807
  1,916
  2,028
  2,146
  2,269
  2,397
  2,530
  2,670
  2,816
  2,969
  3,129
  3,296
  3,471
  3,654
  3,846
  4,047
  4,257
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.974
  0.975
  0.973
  0.974
  0.974
  0.974
  0.973
  0.973
  0.974
  0.974
  0.974
  0.974
  0.974
  0.974
  0.974
  0.974
  0.974
  0.974
  0.974
  0.974
  0.974
  0.974
  0.974
  0.974
  0.974
  0.974
  0.974
  0.974
  0.974
  0.974
Average production assets, $m
  147
  160
  173
  187
  202
  217
  233
  249
  266
  284
  303
  322
  342
  363
  384
  407
  431
  455
  481
  508
  536
  565
  596
  628
  661
  696
  733
  772
  812
  854
Working capital, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total debt, $m
  35
  70
  106
  145
  184
  226
  268
  313
  359
  408
  458
  510
  564
  620
  679
  741
  804
  871
  941
  1,014
  1,090
  1,169
  1,252
  1,339
  1,430
  1,525
  1,625
  1,729
  1,839
  1,953
Total liabilities, $m
  397
  433
  469
  508
  547
  589
  631
  676
  722
  770
  820
  873
  927
  983
  1,042
  1,103
  1,167
  1,234
  1,304
  1,377
  1,453
  1,532
  1,615
  1,702
  1,793
  1,888
  1,988
  2,092
  2,201
  2,316
Total equity, $m
  333
  363
  393
  425
  459
  493
  529
  567
  605
  646
  688
  731
  777
  824
  873
  925
  979
  1,034
  1,093
  1,154
  1,218
  1,284
  1,354
  1,427
  1,503
  1,583
  1,666
  1,754
  1,845
  1,941
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  730
  796
  862
  933
  1,006
  1,082
  1,160
  1,243
  1,327
  1,416
  1,508
  1,604
  1,704
  1,807
  1,915
  2,028
  2,146
  2,268
  2,397
  2,531
  2,671
  2,816
  2,969
  3,129
  3,296
  3,471
  3,654
  3,846
  4,046
  4,257
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.100
  0.190
  0.270
  0.340
  0.400
  0.460
  0.510
  0.550
  0.590
  0.630
  0.670
  0.700
  0.730
  0.750
  0.780
  0.800
  0.820
  0.840
  0.860
  0.880
  0.890
  0.910
  0.920
  0.940
  0.950
  0.960
  0.980
  0.990
  1.000
  1.010
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.456
  0.456
  0.456
  0.456
  0.456
  0.456
  0.456
  0.456
  0.456
  0.456
  0.456
  0.456
  0.456
  0.456
  0.456
  0.456
  0.456
  0.456
  0.456
  0.456
  0.456
  0.456
  0.456
  0.456
  0.456
  0.456
  0.456
  0.456
  0.456
  0.456

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  2
  1
  0
  -2
  -4
  -6
  -8
  -10
  -12
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -21
  -23
  -26
  -29
  -32
  -35
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -48
  -52
  -55
  -59
  -64
  -68
  -73
  -78
  -83
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  22
  23
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  41
  43
  46
  48
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  70
  73
  77
  81
  85
Funds from operations, $m
  17
  17
  17
  17
  16
  16
  16
  15
  15
  15
  14
  14
  13
  13
  12
  12
  11
  11
  10
  10
  9
  9
  8
  7
  7
  6
  5
  4
  4
  3
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from operations, $m
  17
  17
  17
  17
  16
  16
  16
  15
  15
  15
  14
  14
  13
  13
  12
  12
  11
  11
  10
  10
  9
  9
  8
  7
  7
  6
  5
  4
  4
  3
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -13
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -81
New CAPEX, $m
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -25
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -34
  -35
  -38
  -39
  -42
  -45
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -88
  -92
  -97
  -101
  -107
  -111
  -117
  -123
Free cash flow, $m
  -9
  -11
  -13
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -22
  -24
  -27
  -30
  -33
  -36
  -39
  -42
  -46
  -49
  -53
  -57
  -61
  -65
  -70
  -74
  -79
  -84
  -90
  -95
  -101
  -107
  -114
  -121
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  35
  35
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  59
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  79
  83
  87
  91
  95
  100
  104
  109
  115
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  26
  29
  31
  34
  37
  40
  44
  47
  51
  54
  58
  62
  66
  71
  75
  80
  85
  91
  96
  102
  108
  114
  121
  128
  136
  143
  152
  160
  169
  179
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  61
  64
  68
  72
  77
  81
  87
  92
  97
  102
  108
  114
  120
  127
  134
  141
  149
  158
  166
  175
  184
  193
  204
  215
  227
  238
  252
  264
  278
  294
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  52
  53
  55
  58
  60
  62
  65
  67
  70
  73
  75
  78
  82
  85
  89
  92
  96
  101
  105
  110
  115
  120
  125
  131
  137
  143
  150
  157
  165
  173
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -34
  -37
  -40
  -44
  -47
  -51
  -54
  -58
  -62
  -66
  -71
  -75
  -80
  -85
  -91
  -96
  -102
  -108
  -114
  -121
  -128
  -136
  -143
  -152
  -160
  -169
  -179
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  162
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  68
  74
  81
  87
  95
  102
  110
  118
  126
  134
  143
  153
  162
  173
  183
  194
  205
  217
  230
  243
  256
  270
  285
  301
  317
  334
  352
  370
  390
  410
Cash available for distribution, $m
  186
  24
  24
  23
  23
  22
  21
  20
  19
  18
  17
  16
  15
  14
  13
  12
  11
  10
  9
  8
  6
  5
  4
  3
  1
  0
  -2
  -3
  -5
  -6
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  178
  22
  21
  19
  18
  16
  14
  13
  11
  10
  8
  7
  6
  5
  4
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  98.7
  97.4
  96.2
  94.9
  93.7
  92.4
  91.2
  90.0
  88.8
  87.6
  86.4
  85.2
  84.1
  82.9
  81.8
  80.7
  79.6
  78.5
  77.4
  76.3
  75.2
  74.2
  73.1
  72.1
  71.0
  70.0
  69.0
  68.0
  67.0
  66.1

Commvault Systems, Inc. (Commvault) is a provider of data and information management software applications and related services. The Company develops, markets and sells a suite of software applications and services, primarily in North America, Europe, Australia and Asia, that provides its customers with data protection solutions supporting all operating systems, applications, and databases on virtual and physical servers, Network Attached Storage (NAS) shares, cloud-based infrastructures, and mobile devices; management through a single console; multiple protection methods, including backup and archive, snapshot management, replication, and content indexing for eDiscovery; storage management using deduplication for disk, tape and cloud; integration with the storage arrays; complete virtual infrastructure management supporting multiple hypervisors; security capabilities to limit access to critical data, and policy-based data management.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  CommVault Systems (CVLT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 3059
Price to Sales 4.7
Price to Book 6.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 30.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 32.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 9.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -25%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -38.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.2%
Return On Total Capital 0.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.1%
Return On Equity 0.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.1%
Asset Turnover 0.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 86.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 86.4%
EBITDA Margin 1.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.9%
Operating Margin 0.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.3%
Pre-Tax Margin -0.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.2%
Net Profit Margin 0.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.5%
Effective Tax Rate 200%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 111.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

CVLT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CVLT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $651 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by CommVault Systems. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of CommVault Systems. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CVLT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 9.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for CVLT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of CommVault Systems, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of CommVault Systems.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CVLT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 99.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CVLT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for CommVault Systems.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for CommVault Systems. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CVLT stock is equal to 10.4%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CVLT are equal to 20.6%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in CommVault Systems operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CVLT is equal to 0%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $467 million for CommVault Systems - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 45 million for CommVault Systems is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of CommVault Systems at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Commvault Appoints Two New Independent Directors   [Jul-19-18 04:15PM  PR Newswire]
▶ [$$] Elliott Associates Is Working With CommVault   [Jul-14-18 12:01AM  Barrons.com]
▶ Commvault Announces Earnings Release Date   [Jul-09-18 09:25AM  PR Newswire]
▶ 2degrees Selects Commvault HyperScale Software   [Jul-02-18 06:00PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Commvault: Fiscal 4Q Earnings Snapshot   [09:01AM  Associated Press]
▶ Earnings Outlook For CommVault Systems   [Apr-30-18 03:40PM  Benzinga]
▶ Commvault Names Scott Strubel to Lead Worldwide Channels   [Apr-26-18 08:30AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Commvault Expands Microsoft Azure Stack Integration   [Apr-11-18 08:30AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Commvault Announces Earnings Release Date   [09:25AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Activists Should Take the Lead on Board Diversity   [Apr-05-18 10:21AM  Bloomberg]
▶ [$$] Elliott Management Targets Board Overhaul at Commvault   [12:32AM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ [$$] Elliott Management Targets Board Overhaul at Commvault   [10:44AM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ YY Lee Joins Commvault Board as Independent Director   [Feb-05-18 08:30AM  PR Newswire]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for January 29th   [Jan-29-18 04:59AM  Zacks]
▶ Is It Too Late To Buy Commvault Systems Inc (NASDAQ:CVLT)?   [Jan-24-18 11:43AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Commvault reports 3Q loss   [07:53AM  Associated Press]
▶ 4 Ways For Investors To Play CES 2018   [Jan-08-18 03:59PM  Benzinga]
▶ Commvault Announces Earnings Release Date   [09:25AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Commvault To Webcast Financial Analyst Q&A Session   [Oct-31-17 09:20AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Commvault reports 2Q loss   [07:55AM  Associated Press]
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