Intrinsic value of CommVault Systems - CVLT

Previous Close

$58.85

  Intrinsic Value

$7.97

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-86%

Previous close

$58.85

 
Intrinsic value

$7.97

 
Up/down potential

-86%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of CVLT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  6.10
  5.99
  5.89
  5.80
  5.72
  5.65
  5.58
  5.53
  5.47
  5.43
  5.38
  5.35
  5.31
  5.28
  5.25
  5.23
  5.20
  5.18
  5.17
  5.15
  5.13
  5.12
  5.11
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
  5.07
  5.06
  5.06
  5.05
Revenue, $m
  742
  787
  833
  881
  932
  984
  1,039
  1,097
  1,157
  1,219
  1,285
  1,354
  1,426
  1,501
  1,580
  1,662
  1,749
  1,839
  1,934
  2,034
  2,138
  2,248
  2,363
  2,483
  2,610
  2,742
  2,881
  3,027
  3,180
  3,341
Variable operating expenses, $m
  743
  787
  834
  882
  933
  985
  1,040
  1,098
  1,158
  1,221
  1,286
  1,355
  1,427
  1,502
  1,581
  1,664
  1,750
  1,841
  1,936
  2,036
  2,141
  2,250
  2,365
  2,486
  2,612
  2,745
  2,884
  3,030
  3,183
  3,344
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  743
  787
  834
  882
  933
  985
  1,040
  1,098
  1,158
  1,221
  1,286
  1,355
  1,427
  1,502
  1,581
  1,664
  1,750
  1,841
  1,936
  2,036
  2,141
  2,250
  2,365
  2,486
  2,612
  2,745
  2,884
  3,030
  3,183
  3,344
Operating income, $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
EBITDA, $m
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  46
  48
  50
  53
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  0
  1
  3
  4
  6
  7
  9
  11
  13
  15
  17
  19
  21
  23
  26
  28
  31
  34
  37
  40
  43
  46
  50
  53
  57
  61
  65
  70
  75
  79
Earnings before tax, $m
  -1
  -2
  -4
  -5
  -7
  -8
  -10
  -12
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -25
  -27
  -30
  -33
  -35
  -38
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -52
  -56
  -60
  -64
  -68
  -73
  -78
  -83
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -1
  -2
  -4
  -5
  -7
  -8
  -10
  -12
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -25
  -27
  -30
  -33
  -35
  -38
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -52
  -56
  -60
  -64
  -68
  -73
  -78
  -83

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  723
  766
  811
  858
  907
  958
  1,012
  1,068
  1,126
  1,187
  1,251
  1,318
  1,388
  1,461
  1,538
  1,619
  1,703
  1,791
  1,884
  1,981
  2,082
  2,189
  2,301
  2,418
  2,541
  2,670
  2,805
  2,947
  3,096
  3,253
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  723
  766
  811
  858
  907
  958
  1,012
  1,068
  1,126
  1,187
  1,251
  1,318
  1,388
  1,461
  1,538
  1,619
  1,703
  1,791
  1,884
  1,981
  2,082
  2,189
  2,301
  2,418
  2,541
  2,670
  2,805
  2,947
  3,096
  3,253
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.026
  1.027
  1.027
  1.027
  1.028
  1.027
  1.027
  1.027
  1.028
  1.027
  1.027
  1.027
  1.027
  1.027
  1.027
  1.027
  1.027
  1.027
  1.027
  1.027
  1.027
  1.027
  1.027
  1.027
  1.027
  1.027
  1.027
  1.027
  1.027
  1.027
Average production assets, $m
  139
  147
  156
  165
  174
  184
  194
  205
  216
  228
  240
  253
  267
  281
  295
  311
  327
  344
  362
  380
  400
  420
  442
  464
  488
  513
  539
  566
  595
  625
Working capital, $m
  -148
  -157
  -167
  -176
  -186
  -197
  -208
  -219
  -231
  -244
  -257
  -271
  -285
  -300
  -316
  -332
  -350
  -368
  -387
  -407
  -428
  -450
  -473
  -497
  -522
  -548
  -576
  -605
  -636
  -668
Total debt, $m
  25
  52
  79
  108
  138
  169
  202
  236
  271
  308
  347
  388
  431
  475
  522
  571
  622
  676
  733
  792
  853
  918
  987
  1,058
  1,133
  1,211
  1,294
  1,380
  1,471
  1,566
Total liabilities, $m
  440
  466
  494
  523
  552
  584
  616
  650
  686
  723
  762
  803
  845
  890
  937
  986
  1,037
  1,091
  1,147
  1,206
  1,268
  1,333
  1,401
  1,473
  1,547
  1,626
  1,708
  1,795
  1,886
  1,981
Total equity, $m
  283
  299
  317
  335
  355
  375
  396
  417
  440
  464
  489
  515
  543
  571
  601
  633
  666
  700
  736
  774
  814
  856
  900
  945
  993
  1,044
  1,097
  1,152
  1,211
  1,272
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  723
  765
  811
  858
  907
  959
  1,012
  1,067
  1,126
  1,187
  1,251
  1,318
  1,388
  1,461
  1,538
  1,619
  1,703
  1,791
  1,883
  1,980
  2,082
  2,189
  2,301
  2,418
  2,540
  2,670
  2,805
  2,947
  3,097
  3,253
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.090
  0.170
  0.250
  0.320
  0.390
  0.450
  0.510
  0.560
  0.620
  0.660
  0.710
  0.750
  0.790
  0.830
  0.870
  0.900
  0.930
  0.970
  0.990
  1.020
  1.050
  1.070
  1.100
  1.120
  1.140
  1.160
  1.180
  1.200
  1.220
  1.230
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.391
  0.391
  0.391
  0.391
  0.391
  0.391
  0.391
  0.391
  0.391
  0.391
  0.391
  0.391
  0.391
  0.391
  0.391
  0.391
  0.391
  0.391
  0.391
  0.391
  0.391
  0.391
  0.391
  0.391
  0.391
  0.391
  0.391
  0.391
  0.391
  0.391

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -1
  -2
  -4
  -5
  -7
  -8
  -10
  -12
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -25
  -27
  -30
  -33
  -35
  -38
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -52
  -56
  -60
  -64
  -68
  -73
  -78
  -83
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
  56
Funds from operations, $m
  12
  11
  10
  10
  9
  8
  7
  6
  6
  5
  4
  3
  2
  1
  -1
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -6
  -7
  -9
  -10
  -12
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -27
Change in working capital, $m
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
Cash from operations, $m
  20
  20
  20
  19
  19
  19
  18
  18
  18
  17
  17
  16
  16
  16
  15
  15
  14
  14
  13
  13
  12
  11
  11
  10
  9
  9
  8
  7
  6
  6
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -54
New CAPEX, $m
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -84
Free cash flow, $m
  0
  -1
  -2
  -4
  -5
  -7
  -9
  -10
  -12
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -30
  -33
  -36
  -39
  -42
  -45
  -49
  -52
  -56
  -60
  -64
  -69
  -73
  -78
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  75
  79
  82
  87
  91
  95
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  17
  19
  21
  24
  26
  28
  31
  34
  37
  40
  43
  46
  50
  53
  57
  61
  66
  70
  75
  80
  85
  90
  96
  102
  108
  114
  121
  128
  136
  144
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  42
  45
  48
  53
  56
  59
  64
  68
  73
  77
  82
  87
  93
  98
  104
  110
  117
  124
  131
  139
  147
  155
  164
  173
  183
  193
  203
  215
  227
  239
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  43
  45
  46
  48
  51
  53
  55
  58
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  76
  79
  83
  87
  91
  95
  100
  105
  110
  115
  121
  127
  133
  140
  146
  154
  161
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -31
  -34
  -37
  -40
  -43
  -46
  -50
  -53
  -57
  -61
  -66
  -70
  -75
  -80
  -85
  -90
  -96
  -102
  -108
  -114
  -121
  -128
  -136
  -144
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  138
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  164
  26
  25
  25
  25
  24
  24
  24
  24
  23
  23
  23
  22
  22
  22
  22
  21
  21
  21
  20
  20
  20
  20
  19
  19
  19
  18
  18
  18
  17
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  157
  23
  22
  21
  19
  18
  16
  15
  13
  12
  11
  10
  9
  7
  6
  5
  5
  4
  3
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  99.0
  98.0
  97.0
  95.9
  94.8
  93.7
  92.5
  91.4
  90.2
  89.0
  87.8
  86.5
  85.3
  84.0
  82.8
  81.6
  80.3
  79.1
  77.8
  76.6
  75.3
  74.1
  72.9
  71.7
  70.5
  69.3
  68.1
  66.9
  65.7
  64.6

Commvault Systems, Inc. (Commvault) is a provider of data and information management software applications and related services. The Company develops, markets and sells a suite of software applications and services, primarily in North America, Europe, Australia and Asia, that provides its customers with data protection solutions supporting all operating systems, applications, and databases on virtual and physical servers, Network Attached Storage (NAS) shares, cloud-based infrastructures, and mobile devices; management through a single console; multiple protection methods, including backup and archive, snapshot management, replication, and content indexing for eDiscovery; storage management using deduplication for disk, tape and cloud; integration with the storage arrays; complete virtual infrastructure management supporting multiple hypervisors; security capabilities to limit access to critical data, and policy-based data management.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  CommVault Systems (CVLT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 2637.7
Price to Sales 4.1
Price to Book 6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 26.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 28.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 9.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -25%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -38.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.2%
Return On Total Capital 0.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.1%
Return On Equity 0.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.1%
Asset Turnover 0.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 86.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 86.4%
EBITDA Margin 1.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.9%
Operating Margin 0.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.3%
Pre-Tax Margin -0.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.2%
Net Profit Margin 0.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.5%
Effective Tax Rate 200%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 111.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

CVLT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CVLT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $699.393 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by CommVault Systems. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of CommVault Systems. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CVLT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 6.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for CVLT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of CommVault Systems, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of CommVault Systems.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CVLT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 100.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CVLT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for CommVault Systems.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for CommVault Systems. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CVLT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CVLT are equal to 18.7%.

Life of production assets of 11.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in CommVault Systems operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CVLT is equal to -20%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $404.064 million for CommVault Systems - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 45.735 million for CommVault Systems is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of CommVault Systems at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.7 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ What other CEOs are telling analysts about IBM-Red Hat   [Nov-05-18 11:52AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Commvault: Fiscal 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [08:22AM  Associated Press]
▶ Commvault Reports Transformation Progress   [07:50AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Commvault Announces Earnings Release Date   [Oct-08-18 09:25AM  PR Newswire]
▶ These 5 Top Stocks With Accelerating Growth Are Near Buy Points   [Sep-17-18 08:34AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Bet on These 5 Top Liquid Stocks for Stellar Returns   [Sep-06-18 02:03PM  InvestorPlace]
▶ Commvault to Webcast Annual Meeting   [Aug-20-18 09:25AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Commvault Appoints New Independent Director   [Jul-31-18 08:30AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Commvault: Fiscal 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [07:58AM  Associated Press]
▶ Commvault Appoints Two New Independent Directors   [Jul-19-18 04:15PM  PR Newswire]
▶ [$$] Elliott Associates Is Working With CommVault   [Jul-14-18 12:01AM  Barrons.com]
▶ Commvault Announces Earnings Release Date   [Jul-09-18 09:25AM  PR Newswire]
▶ 2degrees Selects Commvault HyperScale Software   [Jul-02-18 06:00PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Commvault: Fiscal 4Q Earnings Snapshot   [09:01AM  Associated Press]
▶ Earnings Outlook For CommVault Systems   [Apr-30-18 03:40PM  Benzinga]
▶ Commvault Names Scott Strubel to Lead Worldwide Channels   [Apr-26-18 08:30AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Commvault Expands Microsoft Azure Stack Integration   [Apr-11-18 08:30AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Commvault Announces Earnings Release Date   [09:25AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Activists Should Take the Lead on Board Diversity   [Apr-05-18 10:21AM  Bloomberg]
▶ [$$] Elliott Management Targets Board Overhaul at Commvault   [12:32AM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ [$$] Elliott Management Targets Board Overhaul at Commvault   [10:44AM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ YY Lee Joins Commvault Board as Independent Director   [Feb-05-18 08:30AM  PR Newswire]

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