Intrinsic value of Covenant Transportation Group, Inc. - CVTI

Previous Close

$20.40

  Intrinsic Value

$262.83

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+999%

Previous close

$20.40

 
Intrinsic value

$262.83

 
Up/down potential

+999%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of CVTI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  33.90
  31.01
  28.41
  26.07
  23.96
  22.07
  20.36
  18.82
  17.44
  16.20
  15.08
  14.07
  13.16
  12.35
  11.61
  10.95
  10.36
  9.82
  9.34
  8.90
  8.51
  8.16
  7.85
  7.56
  7.31
  7.07
  6.87
  6.68
  6.51
  6.36
Revenue, $m
  1,185
  1,552
  1,994
  2,513
  3,115
  3,803
  4,577
  5,439
  6,387
  7,422
  8,540
  9,742
  11,024
  12,385
  13,823
  15,337
  16,925
  18,587
  20,323
  22,133
  24,017
  25,977
  28,015
  30,134
  32,335
  34,623
  37,000
  39,472
  42,043
  44,717
Variable operating expenses, $m
  971
  1,258
  1,602
  2,008
  2,478
  3,015
  3,620
  4,293
  5,034
  5,842
  6,670
  7,609
  8,610
  9,673
  10,797
  11,979
  13,219
  14,518
  15,873
  17,286
  18,758
  20,289
  21,881
  23,536
  25,255
  27,042
  28,899
  30,829
  32,837
  34,926
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  95
  97
  99
  101
  104
  106
  108
  111
  113
  116
  118
  121
  123
  126
  129
  132
  135
  138
  141
  144
  147
  150
  153
  157
  160
  164
  167
  171
  175
  179
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,066
  1,355
  1,701
  2,109
  2,582
  3,121
  3,728
  4,404
  5,147
  5,958
  6,788
  7,730
  8,733
  9,799
  10,926
  12,111
  13,354
  14,656
  16,014
  17,430
  18,905
  20,439
  22,034
  23,693
  25,415
  27,206
  29,066
  31,000
  33,012
  35,105
Operating income, $m
  119
  198
  292
  404
  533
  682
  849
  1,035
  1,240
  1,464
  1,752
  2,012
  2,290
  2,586
  2,898
  3,227
  3,571
  3,932
  4,309
  4,702
  5,112
  5,538
  5,981
  6,441
  6,920
  7,417
  7,934
  8,472
  9,031
  9,613
EBITDA, $m
  263
  371
  502
  657
  836
  1,041
  1,273
  1,530
  1,814
  2,124
  2,459
  2,819
  3,203
  3,611
  4,042
  4,496
  4,972
  5,471
  5,991
  6,534
  7,100
  7,688
  8,300
  8,935
  9,596
  10,283
  10,997
  11,739
  12,511
  13,314
Interest expense (income), $m
  8
  13
  21
  30
  42
  56
  71
  89
  110
  132
  157
  184
  214
  245
  279
  315
  352
  392
  434
  477
  523
  570
  620
  671
  725
  780
  838
  898
  961
  1,026
  1,093
Earnings before tax, $m
  106
  177
  262
  362
  478
  610
  759
  925
  1,108
  1,307
  1,568
  1,799
  2,045
  2,307
  2,583
  2,874
  3,179
  3,499
  3,832
  4,179
  4,541
  4,918
  5,309
  5,716
  6,139
  6,579
  7,036
  7,511
  8,005
  8,520
Tax expense, $m
  29
  48
  71
  98
  129
  165
  205
  250
  299
  353
  423
  486
  552
  623
  697
  776
  858
  945
  1,035
  1,128
  1,226
  1,328
  1,434
  1,543
  1,658
  1,776
  1,900
  2,028
  2,161
  2,300
Net income, $m
  78
  129
  191
  264
  349
  445
  554
  675
  809
  954
  1,144
  1,313
  1,493
  1,684
  1,886
  2,098
  2,321
  2,554
  2,797
  3,051
  3,315
  3,590
  3,876
  4,173
  4,482
  4,803
  5,136
  5,483
  5,844
  6,219

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,036
  1,357
  1,743
  2,197
  2,723
  3,324
  4,001
  4,754
  5,583
  6,487
  7,465
  8,516
  9,637
  10,826
  12,083
  13,407
  14,795
  16,248
  17,765
  19,347
  20,994
  22,707
  24,489
  26,341
  28,265
  30,265
  32,343
  34,504
  36,751
  39,088
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,036
  1,357
  1,743
  2,197
  2,723
  3,324
  4,001
  4,754
  5,583
  6,487
  7,465
  8,516
  9,637
  10,826
  12,083
  13,407
  14,795
  16,248
  17,765
  19,347
  20,994
  22,707
  24,489
  26,341
  28,265
  30,265
  32,343
  34,504
  36,751
  39,088
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.144
  1.144
  1.144
  1.144
  1.144
  1.144
  1.144
  1.144
  1.144
  1.144
  1.144
  1.144
  1.144
  1.144
  1.144
  1.144
  1.144
  1.144
  1.144
  1.144
  1.144
  1.144
  1.144
  1.144
  1.144
  1.144
  1.144
  1.144
  1.144
  1.144
Average production assets, $m
  638
  835
  1,073
  1,352
  1,676
  2,046
  2,462
  2,926
  3,436
  3,993
  4,595
  5,241
  5,931
  6,663
  7,437
  8,251
  9,106
  10,000
  10,934
  11,907
  12,921
  13,976
  15,072
  16,212
  17,396
  18,627
  19,906
  21,236
  22,619
  24,058
Working capital, $m
  130
  171
  219
  276
  343
  418
  503
  598
  703
  816
  939
  1,072
  1,213
  1,362
  1,521
  1,687
  1,862
  2,045
  2,236
  2,435
  2,642
  2,857
  3,082
  3,315
  3,557
  3,808
  4,070
  4,342
  4,625
  4,919
Total debt, $m
  383
  562
  776
  1,029
  1,321
  1,656
  2,032
  2,451
  2,912
  3,414
  3,958
  4,542
  5,165
  5,827
  6,526
  7,261
  8,033
  8,841
  9,685
  10,564
  11,480
  12,433
  13,423
  14,453
  15,523
  16,634
  17,790
  18,991
  20,241
  21,541
Total liabilities, $m
  576
  755
  969
  1,221
  1,514
  1,848
  2,225
  2,643
  3,104
  3,607
  4,151
  4,735
  5,358
  6,019
  6,718
  7,454
  8,226
  9,034
  9,877
  10,757
  11,673
  12,625
  13,616
  14,645
  15,715
  16,827
  17,983
  19,184
  20,433
  21,733
Total equity, $m
  460
  603
  774
  975
  1,209
  1,476
  1,776
  2,111
  2,479
  2,880
  3,315
  3,781
  4,279
  4,807
  5,365
  5,953
  6,569
  7,214
  7,888
  8,590
  9,321
  10,082
  10,873
  11,695
  12,550
  13,437
  14,360
  15,320
  16,317
  17,355
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,036
  1,358
  1,743
  2,196
  2,723
  3,324
  4,001
  4,754
  5,583
  6,487
  7,466
  8,516
  9,637
  10,826
  12,083
  13,407
  14,795
  16,248
  17,765
  19,347
  20,994
  22,707
  24,489
  26,340
  28,265
  30,264
  32,343
  34,504
  36,750
  39,088
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.830
  0.930
  1.000
  1.050
  1.090
  1.120
  1.140
  1.160
  1.170
  1.190
  1.190
  1.200
  1.210
  1.210
  1.220
  1.220
  1.220
  1.230
  1.230
  1.230
  1.230
  1.230
  1.230
  1.240
  1.240
  1.240
  1.240
  1.240
  1.240
  1.240
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  78
  129
  191
  264
  349
  445
  554
  675
  809
  954
  1,144
  1,313
  1,493
  1,684
  1,886
  2,098
  2,321
  2,554
  2,797
  3,051
  3,315
  3,590
  3,876
  4,173
  4,482
  4,803
  5,136
  5,483
  5,844
  6,219
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  143
  174
  210
  253
  303
  360
  424
  495
  574
  659
  707
  806
  912
  1,025
  1,144
  1,269
  1,401
  1,538
  1,682
  1,832
  1,988
  2,150
  2,319
  2,494
  2,676
  2,866
  3,062
  3,267
  3,480
  3,701
Funds from operations, $m
  221
  303
  401
  517
  652
  805
  978
  1,171
  1,383
  1,614
  1,851
  2,119
  2,405
  2,709
  3,030
  3,368
  3,722
  4,092
  4,479
  4,883
  5,303
  5,740
  6,195
  6,667
  7,158
  7,668
  8,199
  8,750
  9,324
  9,921
Change in working capital, $m
  33
  40
  49
  57
  66
  76
  85
  95
  104
  114
  123
  132
  141
  150
  158
  167
  175
  183
  191
  199
  207
  216
  224
  233
  242
  252
  262
  272
  283
  294
Cash from operations, $m
  188
  262
  353
  460
  586
  730
  893
  1,076
  1,278
  1,500
  1,728
  1,987
  2,264
  2,559
  2,872
  3,201
  3,547
  3,910
  4,289
  4,684
  5,096
  5,525
  5,971
  6,434
  6,916
  7,417
  7,937
  8,478
  9,041
  9,626
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -73
  -98
  -128
  -165
  -208
  -258
  -315
  -379
  -450
  -529
  -614
  -707
  -806
  -912
  -1,025
  -1,144
  -1,269
  -1,401
  -1,538
  -1,682
  -1,832
  -1,988
  -2,150
  -2,319
  -2,494
  -2,676
  -2,866
  -3,062
  -3,267
  -3,480
New CAPEX, $m
  -162
  -198
  -237
  -280
  -324
  -370
  -417
  -464
  -510
  -557
  -602
  -646
  -690
  -732
  -774
  -814
  -854
  -894
  -934
  -974
  -1,014
  -1,055
  -1,097
  -1,140
  -1,184
  -1,231
  -1,279
  -1,330
  -1,383
  -1,439
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -235
  -296
  -365
  -445
  -532
  -628
  -732
  -843
  -960
  -1,086
  -1,216
  -1,353
  -1,496
  -1,644
  -1,799
  -1,958
  -2,123
  -2,295
  -2,472
  -2,656
  -2,846
  -3,043
  -3,247
  -3,459
  -3,678
  -3,907
  -4,145
  -4,392
  -4,650
  -4,919
Free cash flow, $m
  -47
  -33
  -13
  15
  54
  102
  162
  234
  318
  415
  512
  634
  768
  915
  1,073
  1,243
  1,423
  1,614
  1,816
  2,028
  2,250
  2,482
  2,724
  2,976
  3,238
  3,510
  3,792
  4,086
  4,391
  4,708
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  146
  179
  214
  253
  293
  334
  376
  419
  461
  503
  544
  584
  623
  661
  699
  736
  772
  808
  844
  879
  916
  953
  991
  1,030
  1,070
  1,112
  1,156
  1,201
  1,249
  1,300
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  39
  13
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  185
  192
  214
  253
  293
  334
  376
  419
  461
  503
  544
  584
  623
  661
  699
  736
  772
  808
  844
  879
  916
  953
  991
  1,030
  1,070
  1,112
  1,156
  1,201
  1,249
  1,300
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  138
  159
  201
  268
  346
  436
  538
  652
  779
  917
  1,056
  1,218
  1,391
  1,576
  1,772
  1,978
  2,195
  2,422
  2,660
  2,908
  3,166
  3,435
  3,714
  4,005
  4,307
  4,621
  4,948
  5,287
  5,640
  6,007
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -117
  -143
  -171
  -202
  -234
  -267
  -300
  -334
  -368
  -401
  -434
  -466
  -498
  -528
  -558
  -587
  -616
  -645
  -674
  -702
  -731
  -761
  -791
  -822
  -854
  -888
  -923
  -959
  -998
  -1,038
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  21
  16
  30
  66
  112
  169
  238
  318
  411
  516
  621
  751
  894
  1,048
  1,214
  1,391
  1,579
  1,777
  1,986
  2,205
  2,435
  2,674
  2,923
  3,183
  3,453
  3,734
  4,025
  4,328
  4,643
  4,970
Discount rate, %
  4.50
  4.73
  4.96
  5.21
  5.47
  5.74
  6.03
  6.33
  6.65
  6.98
  7.33
  7.70
  8.08
  8.49
  8.91
  9.36
  9.82
  10.31
  10.83
  11.37
  11.94
  12.54
  13.16
  13.82
  14.51
  15.24
  16.00
  16.80
  17.64
  18.52
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  20
  15
  26
  54
  86
  121
  158
  195
  230
  263
  285
  309
  325
  335
  337
  333
  321
  304
  282
  256
  228
  199
  170
  142
  117
  93
  73
  56
  42
  30
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  90.6
  88.2
  88.2
  88.2
  88.2
  88.2
  88.2
  88.2
  88.2
  88.2
  88.2
  88.2
  88.2
  88.2
  88.2
  88.2
  88.2
  88.2
  88.2
  88.2
  88.2
  88.2
  88.2
  88.2
  88.2
  88.2
  88.2
  88.2
  88.2
  88.2

Covenant Transportation Group, Inc. is a provider of expedited long haul freight transportation, primarily using two-person driver teams in transcontinental lanes. The Company's services also include refrigerated, dedicated, cross-border, regional and brokerage. The Company's segments include Truckload and Other. The Truckload segment includes the operations of Covenant Transport, Inc. (Covenant Transport), its flagship operation, which provides expedited long haul, dedicated, temperature-controlled and regional solo-driver service; Southern Refrigerated Transport, Inc. (SRT), which provides primarily long haul, regional, dedicated and intermodal temperature-controlled service, and Star Transportation, Inc. (Star), which provides regional solo-driver and dedicated services, primarily in the southeastern United States. The Company provides truckload transportation services throughout the continental United States, into and out of Mexico, and into and out of portions of Canada.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Covenant Transportation Group, Inc. (CVTI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 21.9
Price to Sales 0.6
Price to Book 1.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 3.7
Price to Free Cash Flow -33.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -7.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -37.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -3.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 80.1%
Total Debt to Equity 91.5%
Interest Coverage 4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.4%
Return On Total Capital 3.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.3%
Return On Equity 7.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.6%
Asset Turnover 1.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 56.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 56.4%
EBITDA Margin 15.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.8%
Operating Margin 4.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.8%
Net Profit Margin 2.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.6%
Effective Tax Rate 37%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 39%
Payout Ratio 0%

CVTI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CVTI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $885 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Covenant Transportation Group, Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Covenant Transportation Group, Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CVTI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 33.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.5%, whose default value for CVTI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Covenant Transportation Group, Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Covenant Transportation Group, Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CVTI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 83.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $93 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CVTI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Covenant Transportation Group, Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Covenant Transportation Group, Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CVTI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CVTI are equal to 53.8%.

Life of production assets of 6.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Covenant Transportation Group, Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CVTI is equal to 11%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $343.142 million for Covenant Transportation Group, Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 18.346 million for Covenant Transportation Group, Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Covenant Transportation Group, Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.4 billion.

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