Intrinsic value of Covenant Transportation Group Cl A - CVTI

Previous Close

$25.01

  Intrinsic Value

$4.62

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-82%

Previous close

$25.01

 
Intrinsic value

$4.62

 
Up/down potential

-82%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of CVTI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  19.50
  18.05
  16.75
  15.57
  14.51
  13.56
  12.71
  11.94
  11.24
  10.62
  10.06
  9.55
  9.10
  8.69
  8.32
  7.99
  7.69
  7.42
  7.18
  6.96
  6.76
  6.59
  6.43
  6.29
  6.16
  6.04
  5.94
  5.84
  5.76
  5.68
Revenue, $m
  842
  995
  1,161
  1,342
  1,537
  1,745
  1,967
  2,201
  2,449
  2,709
  2,981
  3,266
  3,563
  3,873
  4,195
  4,530
  4,878
  5,240
  5,616
  6,007
  6,413
  6,835
  7,275
  7,732
  8,208
  8,704
  9,220
  9,759
  10,321
  10,908
Variable operating expenses, $m
  802
  947
  1,105
  1,277
  1,463
  1,661
  1,872
  2,096
  2,331
  2,579
  2,838
  3,109
  3,392
  3,687
  3,993
  4,312
  4,644
  4,988
  5,346
  5,718
  6,105
  6,507
  6,925
  7,361
  7,814
  8,286
  8,778
  9,291
  9,826
  10,384
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  802
  947
  1,105
  1,277
  1,463
  1,661
  1,872
  2,096
  2,331
  2,579
  2,838
  3,109
  3,392
  3,687
  3,993
  4,312
  4,644
  4,988
  5,346
  5,718
  6,105
  6,507
  6,925
  7,361
  7,814
  8,286
  8,778
  9,291
  9,826
  10,384
Operating income, $m
  40
  48
  56
  64
  74
  84
  94
  106
  118
  130
  143
  157
  171
  186
  201
  217
  234
  252
  270
  288
  308
  328
  349
  371
  394
  418
  443
  468
  495
  524
EBITDA, $m
  127
  150
  175
  203
  232
  263
  297
  332
  370
  409
  450
  493
  538
  585
  633
  684
  736
  791
  848
  907
  968
  1,032
  1,098
  1,167
  1,239
  1,314
  1,392
  1,473
  1,558
  1,647
Interest expense (income), $m
  8
  12
  15
  19
  24
  29
  34
  40
  46
  52
  59
  66
  73
  81
  89
  98
  106
  115
  125
  135
  145
  156
  167
  178
  190
  203
  215
  229
  243
  258
  273
Earnings before tax, $m
  29
  32
  36
  40
  45
  50
  55
  60
  65
  71
  77
  83
  90
  97
  104
  111
  119
  127
  135
  143
  152
  161
  171
  181
  191
  202
  214
  225
  238
  251
Tax expense, $m
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  15
  16
  18
  19
  21
  23
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  39
  41
  44
  46
  49
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
  68
Net income, $m
  21
  24
  27
  30
  33
  36
  40
  44
  48
  52
  56
  61
  66
  71
  76
  81
  87
  92
  98
  105
  111
  118
  125
  132
  140
  148
  156
  165
  174
  183

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  776
  917
  1,070
  1,237
  1,416
  1,608
  1,813
  2,029
  2,257
  2,497
  2,748
  3,010
  3,284
  3,569
  3,866
  4,175
  4,496
  4,829
  5,176
  5,536
  5,910
  6,300
  6,705
  7,126
  7,565
  8,022
  8,498
  8,995
  9,513
  10,053
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  776
  917
  1,070
  1,237
  1,416
  1,608
  1,813
  2,029
  2,257
  2,497
  2,748
  3,010
  3,284
  3,569
  3,866
  4,175
  4,496
  4,829
  5,176
  5,536
  5,910
  6,300
  6,705
  7,126
  7,565
  8,022
  8,498
  8,995
  9,513
  10,053
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.085
  1.085
  1.085
  1.085
  1.085
  1.085
  1.085
  1.085
  1.085
  1.085
  1.085
  1.085
  1.085
  1.085
  1.085
  1.085
  1.085
  1.085
  1.085
  1.085
  1.085
  1.085
  1.085
  1.085
  1.085
  1.085
  1.085
  1.085
  1.085
  1.085
Average production assets, $m
  555
  655
  765
  884
  1,013
  1,150
  1,296
  1,451
  1,614
  1,785
  1,965
  2,152
  2,348
  2,552
  2,764
  2,985
  3,215
  3,453
  3,701
  3,958
  4,226
  4,504
  4,794
  5,095
  5,409
  5,736
  6,076
  6,431
  6,802
  7,188
Working capital, $m
  111
  131
  153
  177
  203
  230
  260
  291
  323
  358
  394
  431
  470
  511
  554
  598
  644
  692
  741
  793
  846
  902
  960
  1,021
  1,083
  1,149
  1,217
  1,288
  1,362
  1,440
Total debt, $m
  283
  360
  444
  535
  633
  737
  849
  967
  1,092
  1,223
  1,360
  1,503
  1,652
  1,808
  1,970
  2,139
  2,314
  2,496
  2,685
  2,882
  3,086
  3,299
  3,520
  3,750
  3,990
  4,239
  4,499
  4,770
  5,053
  5,348
Total liabilities, $m
  424
  500
  584
  675
  773
  878
  990
  1,108
  1,232
  1,363
  1,500
  1,644
  1,793
  1,949
  2,111
  2,279
  2,455
  2,637
  2,826
  3,023
  3,227
  3,440
  3,661
  3,891
  4,130
  4,380
  4,640
  4,911
  5,194
  5,489
Total equity, $m
  353
  416
  486
  561
  643
  730
  823
  921
  1,025
  1,134
  1,248
  1,367
  1,491
  1,620
  1,755
  1,895
  2,041
  2,193
  2,350
  2,513
  2,683
  2,860
  3,044
  3,235
  3,434
  3,642
  3,858
  4,084
  4,319
  4,564
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  777
  916
  1,070
  1,236
  1,416
  1,608
  1,813
  2,029
  2,257
  2,497
  2,748
  3,011
  3,284
  3,569
  3,866
  4,174
  4,496
  4,830
  5,176
  5,536
  5,910
  6,300
  6,705
  7,126
  7,564
  8,022
  8,498
  8,995
  9,513
  10,053
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.800
  0.860
  0.910
  0.950
  0.980
  1.010
  1.030
  1.050
  1.070
  1.080
  1.090
  1.100
  1.110
  1.120
  1.120
  1.130
  1.130
  1.140
  1.140
  1.150
  1.150
  1.150
  1.160
  1.160
  1.160
  1.160
  1.170
  1.170
  1.170
  1.170
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  21
  24
  27
  30
  33
  36
  40
  44
  48
  52
  56
  61
  66
  71
  76
  81
  87
  92
  98
  105
  111
  118
  125
  132
  140
  148
  156
  165
  174
  183
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  87
  102
  120
  138
  158
  180
  203
  227
  252
  279
  307
  336
  367
  399
  432
  466
  502
  540
  578
  618
  660
  704
  749
  796
  845
  896
  949
  1,005
  1,063
  1,123
Funds from operations, $m
  108
  126
  146
  168
  191
  216
  242
  270
  300
  331
  363
  397
  433
  469
  508
  547
  589
  632
  677
  723
  771
  822
  874
  928
  985
  1,044
  1,105
  1,169
  1,236
  1,306
Change in working capital, $m
  18
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  60
  63
  65
  68
  71
  74
  77
Cash from operations, $m
  90
  106
  124
  144
  165
  188
  213
  239
  267
  297
  327
  360
  393
  428
  465
  503
  543
  584
  627
  672
  718
  766
  816
  868
  922
  978
  1,037
  1,098
  1,162
  1,229
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -73
  -87
  -102
  -120
  -138
  -158
  -180
  -203
  -227
  -252
  -279
  -307
  -336
  -367
  -399
  -432
  -466
  -502
  -540
  -578
  -618
  -660
  -704
  -749
  -796
  -845
  -896
  -949
  -1,005
  -1,063
New CAPEX, $m
  -90
  -100
  -110
  -119
  -128
  -137
  -146
  -155
  -163
  -171
  -180
  -188
  -196
  -204
  -212
  -221
  -229
  -238
  -248
  -258
  -268
  -278
  -290
  -301
  -314
  -327
  -341
  -355
  -370
  -387
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -163
  -187
  -212
  -239
  -266
  -295
  -326
  -358
  -390
  -423
  -459
  -495
  -532
  -571
  -611
  -653
  -695
  -740
  -788
  -836
  -886
  -938
  -994
  -1,050
  -1,110
  -1,172
  -1,237
  -1,304
  -1,375
  -1,450
Free cash flow, $m
  -73
  -81
  -88
  -95
  -101
  -107
  -113
  -118
  -123
  -127
  -131
  -135
  -139
  -142
  -146
  -149
  -153
  -157
  -160
  -164
  -168
  -173
  -177
  -182
  -188
  -193
  -200
  -206
  -213
  -221
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  69
  77
  84
  91
  98
  105
  112
  118
  125
  131
  137
  143
  149
  156
  162
  169
  175
  182
  189
  197
  204
  213
  221
  230
  240
  250
  260
  271
  283
  295
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  36
  40
  43
  46
  49
  51
  53
  55
  56
  57
  58
  58
  59
  59
  59
  59
  59
  59
  59
  59
  59
  59
  59
  59
  59
  60
  60
  61
  62
  62
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  105
  117
  127
  137
  147
  156
  165
  173
  181
  188
  195
  201
  208
  215
  221
  228
  234
  241
  248
  256
  263
  272
  280
  289
  299
  310
  320
  332
  345
  357
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  32
  36
  39
  42
  45
  49
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
  67
  69
  72
  75
  78
  81
  85
  88
  91
  95
  99
  103
  107
  111
  116
  121
  126
  131
  137
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -57
  -64
  -70
  -76
  -81
  -87
  -93
  -98
  -104
  -109
  -114
  -119
  -124
  -130
  -135
  -140
  -146
  -151
  -157
  -164
  -170
  -177
  -184
  -191
  -199
  -207
  -216
  -225
  -235
  -245
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -25
  -28
  -31
  -33
  -36
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -62
  -64
  -67
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -95
  -100
  -104
  -108
Discount rate, %
  5.40
  5.67
  5.95
  6.25
  6.56
  6.89
  7.24
  7.60
  7.98
  8.38
  8.80
  9.24
  9.70
  10.18
  10.69
  11.23
  11.79
  12.38
  13.00
  13.65
  14.33
  15.04
  15.80
  16.59
  17.42
  18.29
  19.20
  20.16
  21.17
  22.23
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -26
  -26
  -26
  -25
  -24
  -23
  -21
  -20
  -18
  -16
  -15
  -13
  -11
  -10
  -8
  -7
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  91.7
  84.6
  78.6
  73.5
  69.0
  65.2
  61.9
  59.0
  56.5
  54.3
  52.3
  50.6
  49.0
  47.6
  46.4
  45.2
  44.2
  43.3
  42.5
  41.7
  41.0
  40.3
  39.7
  39.2
  38.6
  38.1
  37.7
  37.2
  36.8
  36.5

Covenant Transportation Group, Inc. is a provider of expedited long haul freight transportation, primarily using two-person driver teams in transcontinental lanes. The Company's services also include refrigerated, dedicated, cross-border, regional and brokerage. The Company's segments include Truckload and Other. The Truckload segment includes the operations of Covenant Transport, Inc. (Covenant Transport), its flagship operation, which provides expedited long haul, dedicated, temperature-controlled and regional solo-driver service; Southern Refrigerated Transport, Inc. (SRT), which provides primarily long haul, regional, dedicated and intermodal temperature-controlled service, and Star Transportation, Inc. (Star), which provides regional solo-driver and dedicated services, primarily in the southeastern United States. The Company provides truckload transportation services throughout the continental United States, into and out of Mexico, and into and out of portions of Canada.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Covenant Transportation Group Cl A (CVTI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 26.8
Price to Sales 0.7
Price to Book 1.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 4.5
Price to Free Cash Flow -41.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -7.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -37.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -3.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 80.1%
Total Debt to Equity 91.5%
Interest Coverage 4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.4%
Return On Total Capital 3.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.3%
Return On Equity 7.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.6%
Asset Turnover 1.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 56.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 56.4%
EBITDA Margin 15.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.8%
Operating Margin 4.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.8%
Net Profit Margin 2.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.6%
Effective Tax Rate 37%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 39%
Payout Ratio 0%

CVTI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CVTI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $705.007 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Covenant Transportation Group Cl A. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Covenant Transportation Group Cl A. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CVTI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 19.5% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.4%, whose default value for CVTI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Covenant Transportation Group Cl A, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Covenant Transportation Group Cl A.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CVTI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 95.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CVTI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Covenant Transportation Group Cl A.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Covenant Transportation Group Cl A. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CVTI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CVTI are equal to 65.9%.

Life of production assets of 6.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Covenant Transportation Group Cl A operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CVTI is equal to 13.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $295.201 million for Covenant Transportation Group Cl A - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 15.993 million for Covenant Transportation Group Cl A is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Covenant Transportation Group Cl A at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.4 billion.

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