Intrinsic value of Covenant Transportation Group Cl A - CVTI

Previous Close

$30.25

  Intrinsic Value

$4.10

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-86%

Previous close

$30.25

 
Intrinsic value

$4.10

 
Up/down potential

-86%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of CVTI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
  5.07
  5.07
  5.06
  5.05
  5.05
  5.04
  5.04
  5.03
  5.03
  5.03
  5.03
  5.02
  5.02
  5.02
  5.02
  5.02
  5.01
  5.01
  5.01
  5.01
  5.01
  5.01
  5.01
  5.01
  5.01
  5.01
  5.00
Revenue, $m
  741
  779
  818
  860
  903
  949
  997
  1,047
  1,100
  1,156
  1,214
  1,275
  1,339
  1,406
  1,477
  1,551
  1,629
  1,710
  1,796
  1,886
  1,981
  2,080
  2,184
  2,294
  2,409
  2,529
  2,656
  2,789
  2,928
  3,075
Variable operating expenses, $m
  705
  741
  779
  818
  860
  903
  949
  997
  1,047
  1,100
  1,155
  1,214
  1,275
  1,339
  1,406
  1,476
  1,551
  1,628
  1,710
  1,796
  1,886
  1,980
  2,079
  2,184
  2,293
  2,408
  2,528
  2,655
  2,788
  2,927
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  705
  741
  779
  818
  860
  903
  949
  997
  1,047
  1,100
  1,155
  1,214
  1,275
  1,339
  1,406
  1,476
  1,551
  1,628
  1,710
  1,796
  1,886
  1,980
  2,079
  2,184
  2,293
  2,408
  2,528
  2,655
  2,788
  2,927
Operating income, $m
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  46
  48
  50
  53
  55
  58
  61
  64
  67
  71
  74
  78
  82
  86
  91
  95
  100
  105
  110
  116
  121
  127
  134
  141
  148
EBITDA, $m
  84
  89
  93
  98
  103
  108
  114
  119
  125
  132
  138
  145
  152
  160
  168
  177
  186
  195
  205
  215
  226
  237
  249
  261
  274
  288
  302
  318
  334
  350
Interest expense (income), $m
  8
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  44
  46
  49
  52
  55
  58
  61
  65
  68
  72
Earnings before tax, $m
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56
  58
  61
  64
  66
  69
  72
  76
Tax expense, $m
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  20
Net income, $m
  18
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  44
  46
  48
  51
  53
  55

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  683
  718
  754
  792
  833
  875
  919
  965
  1,014
  1,065
  1,119
  1,175
  1,234
  1,296
  1,361
  1,429
  1,501
  1,576
  1,656
  1,739
  1,826
  1,917
  2,013
  2,114
  2,220
  2,331
  2,448
  2,570
  2,699
  2,834
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  683
  718
  754
  792
  833
  875
  919
  965
  1,014
  1,065
  1,119
  1,175
  1,234
  1,296
  1,361
  1,429
  1,501
  1,576
  1,656
  1,739
  1,826
  1,917
  2,013
  2,114
  2,220
  2,331
  2,448
  2,570
  2,699
  2,834
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.085
  1.085
  1.085
  1.086
  1.084
  1.085
  1.085
  1.085
  1.085
  1.085
  1.085
  1.085
  1.085
  1.085
  1.085
  1.085
  1.085
  1.085
  1.085
  1.085
  1.085
  1.085
  1.085
  1.085
  1.085
  1.085
  1.085
  1.085
  1.085
  1.085
Average production assets, $m
  488
  513
  539
  567
  595
  625
  657
  690
  725
  761
  800
  840
  882
  927
  973
  1,022
  1,073
  1,127
  1,184
  1,243
  1,305
  1,371
  1,439
  1,512
  1,587
  1,667
  1,750
  1,838
  1,930
  2,026
Working capital, $m
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
Total debt, $m
  232
  251
  271
  292
  314
  337
  361
  386
  413
  441
  470
  501
  533
  567
  602
  640
  679
  720
  763
  808
  856
  906
  958
  1,013
  1,071
  1,132
  1,196
  1,262
  1,333
  1,406
Total liabilities, $m
  373
  392
  412
  433
  455
  478
  502
  527
  554
  581
  611
  641
  674
  708
  743
  780
  820
  861
  904
  949
  997
  1,047
  1,099
  1,154
  1,212
  1,273
  1,336
  1,403
  1,474
  1,547
Total equity, $m
  310
  326
  342
  360
  378
  397
  417
  438
  460
  484
  508
  533
  560
  588
  618
  649
  682
  716
  752
  789
  829
  870
  914
  960
  1,008
  1,058
  1,111
  1,167
  1,225
  1,287
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  683
  718
  754
  793
  833
  875
  919
  965
  1,014
  1,065
  1,119
  1,174
  1,234
  1,296
  1,361
  1,429
  1,502
  1,577
  1,656
  1,738
  1,826
  1,917
  2,013
  2,114
  2,220
  2,331
  2,447
  2,570
  2,699
  2,834
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.750
  0.770
  0.790
  0.810
  0.830
  0.850
  0.860
  0.880
  0.900
  0.910
  0.930
  0.940
  0.950
  0.960
  0.970
  0.990
  1.000
  1.010
  1.020
  1.020
  1.030
  1.040
  1.050
  1.060
  1.060
  1.070
  1.080
  1.080
  1.090
  1.090
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454
  0.454

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  18
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  44
  46
  48
  51
  53
  55
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  49
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  76
  80
  84
  88
  93
  97
  102
  107
  113
  118
  124
  131
  137
  144
  151
  159
  167
  175
  184
  193
  203
Funds from operations, $m
  66
  69
  73
  76
  80
  83
  87
  91
  96
  100
  105
  110
  115
  121
  127
  133
  139
  146
  153
  160
  168
  176
  185
  194
  203
  213
  223
  234
  246
  258
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
Cash from operations, $m
  67
  70
  73
  77
  80
  84
  88
  92
  96
  101
  106
  111
  116
  122
  128
  134
  140
  147
  154
  161
  169
  177
  186
  195
  204
  214
  225
  236
  247
  259
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -93
  -97
  -102
  -107
  -113
  -118
  -124
  -131
  -137
  -144
  -151
  -159
  -167
  -175
  -184
  -193
New CAPEX, $m
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -79
  -83
  -88
  -92
  -97
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -70
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -86
  -90
  -95
  -99
  -104
  -109
  -114
  -120
  -126
  -132
  -140
  -146
  -153
  -161
  -170
  -177
  -186
  -196
  -206
  -216
  -227
  -238
  -250
  -263
  -276
  -290
Free cash flow, $m
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  48
  50
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  74
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  37
  40
  42
  44
  47
  50
  52
  55
  58
  62
  65
  69
  72
  76
  80
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  50
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -61
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
Cash available for distribution, $m
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
Discount rate, %
  5.50
  5.78
  6.06
  6.37
  6.69
  7.02
  7.37
  7.74
  8.13
  8.53
  8.96
  9.41
  9.88
  10.37
  10.89
  11.43
  12.01
  12.61
  13.24
  13.90
  14.59
  15.32
  16.09
  16.89
  17.74
  18.62
  19.56
  20.53
  21.56
  22.64
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  99.9
  99.9
  99.8
  99.7
  99.6
  99.5
  99.3
  99.1
  98.9
  98.7
  98.5
  98.3
  98.1
  97.8
  97.5

Covenant Transportation Group, Inc. is a provider of expedited long haul freight transportation, primarily using two-person driver teams in transcontinental lanes. The Company's services also include refrigerated, dedicated, cross-border, regional and brokerage. The Company's segments include Truckload and Other. The Truckload segment includes the operations of Covenant Transport, Inc. (Covenant Transport), its flagship operation, which provides expedited long haul, dedicated, temperature-controlled and regional solo-driver service; Southern Refrigerated Transport, Inc. (SRT), which provides primarily long haul, regional, dedicated and intermodal temperature-controlled service, and Star Transportation, Inc. (Star), which provides regional solo-driver and dedicated services, primarily in the southeastern United States. The Company provides truckload transportation services throughout the continental United States, into and out of Mexico, and into and out of portions of Canada.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Covenant Transportation Group Cl A (CVTI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 32.5
Price to Sales 0.8
Price to Book 2.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 5.4
Price to Free Cash Flow -50.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -7.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -37.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -3.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 80.1%
Total Debt to Equity 91.5%
Interest Coverage 4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.4%
Return On Total Capital 3.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.3%
Return On Equity 7.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.6%
Asset Turnover 1.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 56.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 56.4%
EBITDA Margin 15.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.8%
Operating Margin 4.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.8%
Net Profit Margin 2.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.6%
Effective Tax Rate 37%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 39%
Payout Ratio 0%

CVTI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CVTI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $705 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Covenant Transportation Group Cl A. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Covenant Transportation Group Cl A. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CVTI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 5.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.5%, whose default value for CVTI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Covenant Transportation Group Cl A, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Covenant Transportation Group Cl A.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CVTI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 95.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CVTI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Covenant Transportation Group Cl A.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Covenant Transportation Group Cl A. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CVTI stock is equal to 0.2%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CVTI are equal to 65.9%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Covenant Transportation Group Cl A operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CVTI is equal to -1.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $295 million for Covenant Transportation Group Cl A - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 18 million for Covenant Transportation Group Cl A is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Covenant Transportation Group Cl A at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.5 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ New Strong Buy Stocks for August 16th   [Aug-16-18 10:07AM  Zacks]
▶ Covenant Transportation: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [Jul-25-18 05:18PM  Associated Press]
▶ 3 Momentum ETFs and Stocks to Buy as Trade Fears Fade Out   [Jul-19-18 09:58AM  InvestorPlace]
▶ New Strong Buy Stocks for June 25th   [Jun-25-18 10:35AM  Zacks]
▶ New Strong Buy Stocks for June 13th   [Jun-13-18 10:28AM  Zacks]
▶ 5 Value Stocks With Enticing EV/EBITDA Ratios to Own Now   [Jun-12-18 09:10AM  InvestorPlace]
▶ Benzinga's Top Analyst Calls From April 26, 2018   [Apr-26-18 03:06PM  Benzinga]
▶ Covenant Transportation: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [Apr-24-18 04:23PM  Associated Press]
▶ Top Ranked Momentum Stocks to Buy for April 6th   [Apr-06-18 11:56AM  Zacks]
▶ New Strong Buy Stocks for March 19th   [Mar-19-18 10:11AM  Zacks]
▶ Top Ranked Value Stocks to Buy for March 15th   [Mar-15-18 08:13AM  Zacks]
▶ Top Ranked Value Stocks to Buy for March 12th   [Mar-12-18 07:06AM  Zacks]
▶ Top Ranked Value Stocks to Buy for March 8th   [Mar-08-18 06:49AM  Zacks]
▶ Covenant Transportation posts 4Q profit   [Jan-29-18 04:21PM  Associated Press]
▶ Covenant Transportation posts 3Q profit   [Oct-19-17 04:09PM  Associated Press]
▶ Transportation Stocks Keep Trucking Higher   [Oct-13-17 01:19PM  Zacks]
▶ Covenant Transportation posts 2Q profit   [Jul-25-17 04:48PM  Associated Press]
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