Intrinsic value of Curtiss-Wright - CW

Previous Close

$105.63

  Intrinsic Value

$133.30

stock screener

  Rating & Target

buy

+26%

Previous close

$105.63

 
Intrinsic value

$133.30

 
Up/down potential

+26%

 
Rating

buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of CW stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 4.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  9.30
  8.87
  8.48
  8.13
  7.82
  7.54
  7.29
  7.06
  6.85
  6.67
  6.50
  6.35
  6.21
  6.09
  5.98
  5.89
  5.80
  5.72
  5.65
  5.58
  5.52
  5.47
  5.42
  5.38
  5.34
  5.31
  5.28
  5.25
  5.23
  5.20
Revenue, $m
  2,482
  2,702
  2,932
  3,170
  3,418
  3,676
  3,944
  4,222
  4,511
  4,812
  5,125
  5,450
  5,789
  6,141
  6,509
  6,892
  7,291
  7,708
  8,143
  8,598
  9,073
  9,569
  10,088
  10,631
  11,199
  11,793
  12,416
  13,068
  13,750
  14,466
Variable operating expenses, $m
  1,985
  2,148
  2,318
  2,496
  2,680
  2,871
  3,070
  3,276
  3,491
  3,714
  3,803
  4,045
  4,296
  4,558
  4,831
  5,115
  5,412
  5,721
  6,044
  6,381
  6,734
  7,102
  7,487
  7,890
  8,312
  8,753
  9,215
  9,699
  10,206
  10,737
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  108
  111
  113
  116
  118
  121
  123
  126
  129
  132
  135
  138
  141
  144
  147
  150
  153
  157
  160
  164
  167
  171
  175
  179
  183
  187
  191
  195
  199
  204
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,093
  2,259
  2,431
  2,612
  2,798
  2,992
  3,193
  3,402
  3,620
  3,846
  3,938
  4,183
  4,437
  4,702
  4,978
  5,265
  5,565
  5,878
  6,204
  6,545
  6,901
  7,273
  7,662
  8,069
  8,495
  8,940
  9,406
  9,894
  10,405
  10,941
Operating income, $m
  389
  443
  500
  559
  620
  684
  751
  820
  891
  966
  1,186
  1,267
  1,352
  1,439
  1,531
  1,626
  1,726
  1,830
  1,939
  2,053
  2,171
  2,296
  2,426
  2,562
  2,704
  2,854
  3,010
  3,174
  3,345
  3,525
EBITDA, $m
  599
  659
  722
  787
  856
  926
  1,000
  1,077
  1,156
  1,239
  1,325
  1,415
  1,508
  1,606
  1,707
  1,813
  1,924
  2,039
  2,159
  2,285
  2,417
  2,555
  2,699
  2,850
  3,008
  3,173
  3,346
  3,528
  3,718
  3,917
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  44
  53
  61
  71
  80
  91
  101
  112
  123
  135
  147
  160
  173
  187
  201
  216
  232
  248
  265
  282
  301
  320
  340
  361
  383
  407
  431
  456
  482
  510
Earnings before tax, $m
  345
  391
  439
  488
  540
  594
  650
  708
  768
  831
  1,039
  1,107
  1,179
  1,253
  1,330
  1,410
  1,495
  1,582
  1,674
  1,770
  1,871
  1,976
  2,085
  2,200
  2,321
  2,447
  2,579
  2,718
  2,863
  3,015
Tax expense, $m
  93
  106
  118
  132
  146
  160
  175
  191
  207
  224
  281
  299
  318
  338
  359
  381
  404
  427
  452
  478
  505
  533
  563
  594
  627
  661
  696
  734
  773
  814
Net income, $m
  252
  285
  320
  356
  394
  433
  474
  517
  561
  607
  759
  808
  860
  914
  971
  1,030
  1,091
  1,155
  1,222
  1,292
  1,365
  1,442
  1,522
  1,606
  1,694
  1,786
  1,883
  1,984
  2,090
  2,201

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  3,536
  3,850
  4,176
  4,516
  4,869
  5,236
  5,618
  6,014
  6,426
  6,854
  7,300
  7,763
  8,246
  8,748
  9,272
  9,817
  10,386
  10,980
  11,600
  12,248
  12,924
  13,631
  14,370
  15,144
  15,953
  16,800
  17,686
  18,615
  19,587
  20,606
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  3,536
  3,850
  4,176
  4,516
  4,869
  5,236
  5,618
  6,014
  6,426
  6,854
  7,300
  7,763
  8,246
  8,748
  9,272
  9,817
  10,386
  10,980
  11,600
  12,248
  12,924
  13,631
  14,370
  15,144
  15,953
  16,800
  17,686
  18,615
  19,587
  20,606
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.702
  0.702
  0.702
  0.702
  0.702
  0.702
  0.702
  0.702
  0.702
  0.702
  0.702
  0.702
  0.702
  0.702
  0.702
  0.702
  0.702
  0.702
  0.702
  0.702
  0.702
  0.702
  0.702
  0.702
  0.702
  0.702
  0.702
  0.702
  0.702
  0.702
Average production assets, $m
  1,149
  1,251
  1,357
  1,468
  1,583
  1,702
  1,826
  1,955
  2,089
  2,228
  2,373
  2,523
  2,680
  2,843
  3,014
  3,191
  3,376
  3,569
  3,770
  3,981
  4,201
  4,430
  4,671
  4,922
  5,185
  5,460
  5,748
  6,050
  6,366
  6,698
Working capital, $m
  367
  400
  434
  469
  506
  544
  584
  625
  668
  712
  758
  807
  857
  909
  963
  1,020
  1,079
  1,141
  1,205
  1,272
  1,343
  1,416
  1,493
  1,573
  1,657
  1,745
  1,838
  1,934
  2,035
  2,141
Total debt, $m
  973
  1,138
  1,311
  1,490
  1,676
  1,870
  2,072
  2,281
  2,499
  2,725
  2,960
  3,205
  3,459
  3,725
  4,001
  4,289
  4,590
  4,903
  5,231
  5,572
  5,929
  6,303
  6,693
  7,101
  7,529
  7,976
  8,444
  8,934
  9,448
  9,986
Total liabilities, $m
  1,867
  2,033
  2,205
  2,384
  2,571
  2,765
  2,966
  3,175
  3,393
  3,619
  3,854
  4,099
  4,354
  4,619
  4,895
  5,184
  5,484
  5,798
  6,125
  6,467
  6,824
  7,197
  7,587
  7,996
  8,423
  8,870
  9,338
  9,829
  10,342
  10,880
Total equity, $m
  1,669
  1,817
  1,971
  2,131
  2,298
  2,471
  2,652
  2,839
  3,033
  3,235
  3,446
  3,664
  3,892
  4,129
  4,376
  4,634
  4,902
  5,183
  5,475
  5,781
  6,100
  6,434
  6,783
  7,148
  7,530
  7,929
  8,348
  8,786
  9,245
  9,726
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  3,536
  3,850
  4,176
  4,515
  4,869
  5,236
  5,618
  6,014
  6,426
  6,854
  7,300
  7,763
  8,246
  8,748
  9,271
  9,818
  10,386
  10,981
  11,600
  12,248
  12,924
  13,631
  14,370
  15,144
  15,953
  16,799
  17,686
  18,615
  19,587
  20,606
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.580
  0.630
  0.660
  0.700
  0.730
  0.760
  0.780
  0.800
  0.820
  0.840
  0.860
  0.870
  0.890
  0.900
  0.910
  0.930
  0.940
  0.950
  0.960
  0.960
  0.970
  0.980
  0.990
  0.990
  1.000
  1.010
  1.010
  1.020
  1.020
  1.030
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.472
  0.472
  0.472
  0.472
  0.472
  0.472
  0.472
  0.472
  0.472
  0.472
  0.472
  0.472
  0.472
  0.472
  0.472
  0.472
  0.472
  0.472
  0.472
  0.472
  0.472
  0.472
  0.472
  0.472
  0.472
  0.472
  0.472
  0.472
  0.472
  0.472

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  252
  285
  320
  356
  394
  433
  474
  517
  561
  607
  759
  808
  860
  914
  971
  1,030
  1,091
  1,155
  1,222
  1,292
  1,365
  1,442
  1,522
  1,606
  1,694
  1,786
  1,883
  1,984
  2,090
  2,201
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  210
  216
  222
  228
  235
  242
  249
  257
  265
  273
  139
  148
  157
  166
  176
  187
  197
  209
  220
  233
  246
  259
  273
  288
  303
  319
  336
  354
  372
  392
Funds from operations, $m
  462
  501
  542
  585
  629
  676
  724
  774
  826
  880
  897
  956
  1,017
  1,081
  1,147
  1,216
  1,288
  1,364
  1,443
  1,525
  1,611
  1,701
  1,795
  1,894
  1,997
  2,106
  2,219
  2,338
  2,462
  2,593
Change in working capital, $m
  31
  33
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
  64
  67
  70
  73
  77
  80
  84
  88
  92
  96
  101
  106
Cash from operations, $m
  430
  468
  508
  550
  593
  637
  684
  732
  783
  835
  851
  908
  967
  1,028
  1,093
  1,160
  1,229
  1,302
  1,378
  1,458
  1,541
  1,628
  1,719
  1,814
  1,913
  2,018
  2,127
  2,241
  2,361
  2,487
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -62
  -67
  -73
  -79
  -86
  -93
  -100
  -107
  -114
  -122
  -130
  -139
  -148
  -157
  -166
  -176
  -187
  -197
  -209
  -220
  -233
  -246
  -259
  -273
  -288
  -303
  -319
  -336
  -354
  -372
New CAPEX, $m
  -98
  -102
  -106
  -110
  -115
  -119
  -124
  -129
  -134
  -139
  -145
  -151
  -157
  -163
  -170
  -177
  -185
  -193
  -201
  -210
  -220
  -230
  -240
  -251
  -263
  -275
  -288
  -302
  -316
  -331
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -160
  -169
  -179
  -189
  -201
  -212
  -224
  -236
  -248
  -261
  -275
  -290
  -305
  -320
  -336
  -353
  -372
  -390
  -410
  -430
  -453
  -476
  -499
  -524
  -551
  -578
  -607
  -638
  -670
  -703
Free cash flow, $m
  271
  299
  329
  360
  392
  426
  460
  497
  534
  574
  576
  618
  663
  708
  756
  806
  858
  912
  968
  1,027
  1,088
  1,152
  1,219
  1,289
  1,363
  1,439
  1,519
  1,603
  1,691
  1,783
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  158
  166
  172
  179
  186
  194
  201
  209
  218
  226
  235
  245
  255
  265
  276
  288
  300
  314
  327
  342
  357
  373
  390
  408
  427
  447
  468
  490
  514
  538
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  158
  166
  172
  179
  186
  194
  201
  209
  218
  226
  235
  245
  255
  265
  276
  288
  300
  314
  327
  342
  357
  373
  390
  408
  427
  447
  468
  490
  514
  538
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  430
  465
  501
  539
  578
  619
  662
  706
  752
  800
  811
  863
  917
  974
  1,033
  1,094
  1,158
  1,225
  1,295
  1,369
  1,445
  1,526
  1,610
  1,698
  1,790
  1,886
  1,988
  2,094
  2,205
  2,322
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -141
  -148
  -154
  -160
  -167
  -173
  -180
  -187
  -194
  -202
  -210
  -219
  -228
  -237
  -247
  -258
  -269
  -280
  -293
  -306
  -319
  -334
  -349
  -365
  -382
  -400
  -418
  -438
  -459
  -481
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  289
  317
  347
  379
  412
  446
  482
  519
  558
  598
  601
  644
  690
  737
  786
  836
  890
  945
  1,003
  1,063
  1,126
  1,192
  1,261
  1,333
  1,408
  1,487
  1,569
  1,655
  1,746
  1,841
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  277
  290
  302
  312
  319
  324
  325
  324
  320
  313
  285
  275
  262
  247
  231
  213
  194
  174
  154
  135
  116
  99
  83
  68
  55
  43
  34
  26
  19
  14
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Curtiss-Wright Corporation is a manufacturing and service company that designs, manufactures, and overhauls precision components and provides engineered products and services to the aerospace, defense, power generation and general industrial markets. The Company operates through three segments: Commercial/Industrial, Defense and Power. The Commercial/Industrial segment's products include electronic throttle control devices and transmission shifters, electro-mechanical actuation control components, valves, and surface technology services. The Defense segment's products include commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) embedded computing board level modules, turret aiming and stabilization products, weapons handling systems, avionics and electronics, flight test equipment, and aircraft data management solutions. The Power segment's products include a range of hardware, pumps, valves, fastening systems, specialized containment doors, airlock hatches and spent fuel management products.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Curtiss-Wright (CW)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 25
Price to Sales 2.2
Price to Book 3.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 11
Price to Free Cash Flow 12.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -4.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 30.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -8.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 4
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 63.1%
Total Debt to Equity 74.8%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 6.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.7%
Return On Total Capital 8.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.4%
Return On Equity 14.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.9%
Asset Turnover 0.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 35.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 35.2%
EBITDA Margin 17.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.9%
Operating Margin 14.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 12.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.1%
Net Profit Margin 8.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.8%
Effective Tax Rate 29.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.3%
Payout Ratio 12.3%

CW stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CW stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2271.026 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Curtiss-Wright. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Curtiss-Wright. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CW stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 9.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for CW is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Curtiss-Wright, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Curtiss-Wright.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CW stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 80.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $106 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CW stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Curtiss-Wright.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Curtiss-Wright. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CW stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CW are equal to 46.3%.

Life of production assets of 17.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Curtiss-Wright operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CW is equal to 14.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1527.8 million for Curtiss-Wright - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 43.981 million for Curtiss-Wright is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Curtiss-Wright at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $4.6 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Hedge Funds Are Crazy About Curtiss-Wright Corp. (CW)   [Dec-14-18 01:46AM  Insider Monkey]
▶ Curtiss-Wright (CW) Beats Q3 Earnings Estimates   [Oct-30-18 06:55PM  Zacks]
▶ Curtiss-Wright: 3Q Earnings Snapshot   [05:52PM  Associated Press]
▶ Taking A Look At Curtiss-Wright Corporations (NYSE:CW) ROE   [Oct-23-18 10:44AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ IBD Stock Of The Day: This Dow Jones Giant Hits Buy Zone As Growth Soars   [Sep-19-18 04:11PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Curtiss-Wright: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [Jul-25-18 06:23PM  Associated Press]
▶ Trumps Tariff Turmoil Shoots Down These 3 Aerospace Stocks   [Jul-11-18 12:10PM  InvestorPlace]
▶ [$$] TV Guidance   [Jun-30-18 12:01AM  Barrons.com]
▶ Congressman tries to block 250-employee factory move from NY to NC   [Jun-12-18 12:52PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Curtiss-Wright: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-02-18 07:43PM  Associated Press]

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