Intrinsic value of Camping World Holdings Cl A - CWH

Previous Close

$21.26

  Intrinsic Value

$59.59

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+180%

Previous close

$21.26

 
Intrinsic value

$59.59

 
Up/down potential

+180%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of CWH stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  13.00
  12.20
  11.48
  10.83
  10.25
  9.72
  9.25
  8.83
  8.44
  8.10
  7.79
  7.51
  7.26
  7.03
  6.83
  6.65
  6.48
  6.33
  6.20
  6.08
  5.97
  5.88
  5.79
  5.71
  5.64
  5.57
  5.52
  5.47
  5.42
  5.38
Revenue, $m
  4,842
  5,433
  6,057
  6,713
  7,401
  8,121
  8,872
  9,655
  10,470
  11,318
  12,200
  13,116
  14,068
  15,058
  16,086
  17,155
  18,267
  19,425
  20,629
  21,883
  23,190
  24,553
  25,974
  27,457
  29,005
  30,622
  32,311
  34,077
  35,923
  37,855
Variable operating expenses, $m
  4,324
  4,847
  5,399
  5,979
  6,588
  7,225
  7,890
  8,583
  9,304
  10,055
  10,796
  11,607
  12,450
  13,326
  14,236
  15,182
  16,166
  17,190
  18,256
  19,366
  20,523
  21,729
  22,986
  24,298
  25,668
  27,099
  28,594
  30,157
  31,791
  33,500
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  97
  99
  101
  104
  106
  108
  111
  113
  116
  118
  121
  123
  126
  129
  132
  135
  138
  141
  144
  147
  150
  153
  157
  160
  164
  167
  171
  175
  179
  182
Total operating expenses, $m
  4,421
  4,946
  5,500
  6,083
  6,694
  7,333
  8,001
  8,696
  9,420
  10,173
  10,917
  11,730
  12,576
  13,455
  14,368
  15,317
  16,304
  17,331
  18,400
  19,513
  20,673
  21,882
  23,143
  24,458
  25,832
  27,266
  28,765
  30,332
  31,970
  33,682
Operating income, $m
  421
  487
  557
  630
  707
  787
  871
  959
  1,050
  1,145
  1,283
  1,385
  1,492
  1,603
  1,719
  1,839
  1,964
  2,094
  2,229
  2,371
  2,518
  2,671
  2,831
  2,998
  3,173
  3,355
  3,546
  3,745
  3,954
  4,172
EBITDA, $m
  485
  553
  626
  703
  783
  867
  955
  1,047
  1,142
  1,241
  1,345
  1,452
  1,564
  1,680
  1,800
  1,926
  2,056
  2,192
  2,334
  2,482
  2,635
  2,796
  2,963
  3,138
  3,320
  3,511
  3,710
  3,918
  4,136
  4,364
Interest expense (income), $m
  62
  102
  108
  125
  143
  162
  182
  203
  225
  247
  271
  296
  321
  348
  376
  404
  434
  465
  498
  531
  566
  603
  641
  680
  721
  765
  809
  856
  906
  957
  1,010
Earnings before tax, $m
  319
  379
  432
  487
  545
  605
  668
  734
  803
  874
  987
  1,064
  1,144
  1,228
  1,314
  1,405
  1,499
  1,596
  1,698
  1,804
  1,915
  2,031
  2,151
  2,277
  2,408
  2,546
  2,689
  2,840
  2,997
  3,162
Tax expense, $m
  86
  102
  117
  131
  147
  163
  180
  198
  217
  236
  266
  287
  309
  331
  355
  379
  405
  431
  459
  487
  517
  548
  581
  615
  650
  687
  726
  767
  809
  854
Net income, $m
  233
  277
  315
  356
  398
  442
  488
  536
  586
  638
  721
  777
  835
  896
  960
  1,025
  1,094
  1,165
  1,240
  1,317
  1,398
  1,482
  1,570
  1,662
  1,758
  1,858
  1,963
  2,073
  2,188
  2,308

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,894
  3,248
  3,620
  4,012
  4,424
  4,854
  5,303
  5,771
  6,258
  6,765
  7,292
  7,840
  8,409
  9,000
  9,615
  10,254
  10,919
  11,611
  12,331
  13,080
  13,862
  14,676
  15,525
  16,412
  17,337
  18,303
  19,313
  20,369
  21,472
  22,627
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,894
  3,248
  3,620
  4,012
  4,424
  4,854
  5,303
  5,771
  6,258
  6,765
  7,292
  7,840
  8,409
  9,000
  9,615
  10,254
  10,919
  11,611
  12,331
  13,080
  13,862
  14,676
  15,525
  16,412
  17,337
  18,303
  19,313
  20,369
  21,472
  22,627
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.673
  1.673
  1.673
  1.673
  1.673
  1.673
  1.673
  1.673
  1.673
  1.673
  1.673
  1.673
  1.673
  1.673
  1.673
  1.673
  1.673
  1.673
  1.673
  1.673
  1.673
  1.673
  1.673
  1.673
  1.673
  1.673
  1.673
  1.673
  1.673
  1.673
Average production assets, $m
  339
  380
  424
  470
  518
  568
  621
  676
  733
  792
  854
  918
  985
  1,054
  1,126
  1,201
  1,279
  1,360
  1,444
  1,532
  1,623
  1,719
  1,818
  1,922
  2,030
  2,144
  2,262
  2,385
  2,515
  2,650
Working capital, $m
  1,399
  1,570
  1,750
  1,940
  2,139
  2,347
  2,564
  2,790
  3,026
  3,271
  3,526
  3,791
  4,066
  4,352
  4,649
  4,958
  5,279
  5,614
  5,962
  6,324
  6,702
  7,096
  7,506
  7,935
  8,382
  8,850
  9,338
  9,848
  10,382
  10,940
Total debt, $m
  1,992
  2,310
  2,645
  2,998
  3,368
  3,755
  4,159
  4,581
  5,019
  5,475
  5,950
  6,443
  6,955
  7,487
  8,040
  8,616
  9,214
  9,836
  10,484
  11,159
  11,862
  12,595
  13,360
  14,157
  14,990
  15,860
  16,769
  17,719
  18,712
  19,751
Total liabilities, $m
  2,605
  2,923
  3,258
  3,611
  3,981
  4,368
  4,773
  5,194
  5,632
  6,089
  6,563
  7,056
  7,568
  8,100
  8,654
  9,229
  9,827
  10,450
  11,097
  11,772
  12,475
  13,208
  13,973
  14,771
  15,603
  16,473
  17,382
  18,332
  19,325
  20,364
Total equity, $m
  289
  325
  362
  401
  442
  485
  530
  577
  626
  677
  729
  784
  841
  900
  962
  1,025
  1,092
  1,161
  1,233
  1,308
  1,386
  1,468
  1,553
  1,641
  1,734
  1,830
  1,931
  2,037
  2,147
  2,263
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,894
  3,248
  3,620
  4,012
  4,423
  4,853
  5,303
  5,771
  6,258
  6,766
  7,292
  7,840
  8,409
  9,000
  9,616
  10,254
  10,919
  11,611
  12,330
  13,080
  13,861
  14,676
  15,526
  16,412
  17,337
  18,303
  19,313
  20,369
  21,472
  22,627
Debt-to-equity ratio
  6.880
  7.110
  7.310
  7.470
  7.610
  7.740
  7.840
  7.940
  8.020
  8.090
  8.160
  8.220
  8.270
  8.320
  8.360
  8.400
  8.440
  8.470
  8.500
  8.530
  8.560
  8.580
  8.610
  8.630
  8.650
  8.670
  8.680
  8.700
  8.710
  8.730
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  233
  277
  315
  356
  398
  442
  488
  536
  586
  638
  721
  777
  835
  896
  960
  1,025
  1,094
  1,165
  1,240
  1,317
  1,398
  1,482
  1,570
  1,662
  1,758
  1,858
  1,963
  2,073
  2,188
  2,308
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  63
  66
  69
  73
  76
  80
  84
  88
  92
  96
  62
  67
  71
  76
  82
  87
  93
  99
  105
  111
  118
  125
  132
  139
  147
  155
  164
  173
  182
  192
Funds from operations, $m
  296
  343
  385
  428
  474
  522
  572
  624
  678
  734
  782
  843
  907
  973
  1,041
  1,112
  1,187
  1,264
  1,344
  1,428
  1,516
  1,607
  1,702
  1,801
  1,905
  2,014
  2,127
  2,246
  2,370
  2,500
Change in working capital, $m
  161
  171
  180
  190
  199
  208
  217
  226
  236
  245
  255
  265
  275
  286
  297
  309
  321
  334
  348
  363
  378
  394
  411
  429
  447
  467
  488
  510
  534
  558
Cash from operations, $m
  135
  173
  204
  239
  275
  314
  355
  397
  442
  489
  528
  579
  632
  687
  744
  803
  865
  929
  996
  1,066
  1,138
  1,213
  1,291
  1,373
  1,458
  1,546
  1,639
  1,736
  1,836
  1,942
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -22
  -25
  -28
  -31
  -34
  -38
  -41
  -45
  -49
  -53
  -57
  -62
  -67
  -71
  -76
  -82
  -87
  -93
  -99
  -105
  -111
  -118
  -125
  -132
  -139
  -147
  -155
  -164
  -173
  -182
New CAPEX, $m
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -64
  -67
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -84
  -88
  -91
  -95
  -99
  -104
  -108
  -113
  -118
  -124
  -129
  -135
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -61
  -66
  -72
  -77
  -82
  -88
  -94
  -100
  -106
  -112
  -119
  -126
  -134
  -140
  -148
  -157
  -165
  -174
  -183
  -193
  -202
  -213
  -224
  -236
  -247
  -260
  -273
  -288
  -302
  -317
Free cash flow, $m
  75
  107
  133
  162
  193
  226
  261
  298
  336
  377
  408
  453
  498
  546
  596
  647
  700
  756
  813
  873
  935
  1,000
  1,067
  1,137
  1,210
  1,286
  1,365
  1,448
  1,534
  1,624
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  100
  318
  336
  353
  370
  387
  404
  421
  439
  456
  474
  493
  512
  532
  553
  575
  598
  622
  648
  675
  703
  733
  764
  798
  833
  870
  909
  950
  993
  1,039
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  100
  318
  336
  353
  370
  387
  404
  421
  439
  456
  474
  493
  512
  532
  553
  575
  598
  622
  648
  675
  703
  733
  764
  798
  833
  870
  909
  950
  993
  1,039
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  175
  424
  469
  515
  563
  613
  665
  719
  775
  833
  883
  945
  1,011
  1,078
  1,149
  1,222
  1,299
  1,378
  1,461
  1,548
  1,639
  1,733
  1,832
  1,935
  2,043
  2,156
  2,274
  2,398
  2,528
  2,663
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -233
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -101
  -106
  -110
  -115
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -58
  389
  431
  476
  522
  570
  620
  672
  726
  782
  830
  891
  954
  1,019
  1,087
  1,158
  1,232
  1,309
  1,389
  1,473
  1,560
  1,652
  1,747
  1,846
  1,950
  2,059
  2,173
  2,292
  2,417
  2,548
Discount rate, %
  13.70
  14.39
  15.10
  15.86
  16.65
  17.49
  18.36
  19.28
  20.24
  21.25
  22.32
  23.43
  24.60
  25.83
  27.13
  28.48
  29.91
  31.40
  32.97
  34.62
  36.35
  38.17
  40.08
  42.08
  44.18
  46.39
  48.71
  51.15
  53.71
  56.39
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -51
  297
  283
  264
  242
  217
  191
  164
  138
  114
  91
  71
  55
  41
  30
  21
  14
  10
  6
  4
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Camping World Holdings, Inc. is a provider of a portfolio of services, protection plans, products and resources for recreational vehicle (RV) enthusiasts. The Company operates through two segments: Consumer Services and Plans, and Retail. Within the Consumer Services and Plans segment, the Company derives revenue from the sale of the offerings, including emergency roadside assistance; property and casualty insurance programs; travel assist programs; extended vehicle service contracts; co branded credit cards; vehicle financing and refinancing; club memberships, and publications and directories. Within the Retail segment, it derives revenue from the sale of the products, including new vehicles; used vehicles; parts and service, including RV accessories and supplies, and finance and insurance. The Company provides its offerings through its two brands: Good Sam and Camping World. Its Camping World brand operates a network of RV centric retail locations in the United States.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Camping World Holdings Cl A (CWH)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 9
Price to Sales 0.5
Price to Book 22.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 7.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 9.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 7.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -2.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 4.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 828%
Total Debt to Equity 1672%
Interest Coverage 4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 17.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.3%
Return On Total Capital 16.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.1%
Return On Equity -174.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -115.5%
Asset Turnover 2.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 28.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 28%
EBITDA Margin 8.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.1%
Operating Margin 7.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 5.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.4%
Net Profit Margin 5.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.2%
Effective Tax Rate 2.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.7%
Payout Ratio 1%

CWH stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CWH stock intrinsic value calculation we used $4285.255 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Camping World Holdings Cl A. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Camping World Holdings Cl A. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CWH stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 13% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 13.7%, whose default value for CWH is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Camping World Holdings Cl A, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Camping World Holdings Cl A.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CWH stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 89.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $95 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CWH stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Camping World Holdings Cl A.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Camping World Holdings Cl A. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CWH stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CWH are equal to 7%.

Life of production assets of 13.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Camping World Holdings Cl A operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CWH is equal to 28.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $56.505 million for Camping World Holdings Cl A - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 37.008 million for Camping World Holdings Cl A is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Camping World Holdings Cl A at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.8 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ RV Stock Camping World Could Be Stuck in Neutral   [Sep-18-18 10:57AM  TheStreet.com]
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▶ Camping World Declares Regular and Special Dividend   [Aug-30-18 07:30AM  Business Wire]
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▶ Camping World: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [06:35PM  Associated Press]
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▶ Camping World Declares Regular and Special Dividend   [May-31-18 08:30AM  Business Wire]
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▶ [$$] Follow This Prophet to the RV Promised Land   [May-16-18 10:55AM  The Wall Street Journal]
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▶ What Happened in the Stock Market Today   [May-08-18 05:03PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Camping World: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [07:09AM  Associated Press]

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