Intrinsic value of California Water Service Group - CWT

Previous Close

$43.70

  Intrinsic Value

$44.48

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

+2%

Previous close

$43.70

 
Intrinsic value

$44.48

 
Up/down potential

+2%

 
Rating

hold

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CWT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  3.57
  12.50
  11.75
  11.08
  10.47
  9.92
  9.43
  8.99
  8.59
  8.23
  7.91
  7.62
  7.35
  7.12
  6.91
  6.72
  6.54
  6.39
  6.25
  6.13
  6.01
  5.91
  5.82
  5.74
  5.66
  5.60
  5.54
  5.48
  5.44
  5.39
  5.35
Revenue, $m
  609
  685
  766
  850
  939
  1,033
  1,130
  1,232
  1,337
  1,447
  1,562
  1,681
  1,804
  1,933
  2,066
  2,205
  2,349
  2,499
  2,656
  2,818
  2,988
  3,164
  3,349
  3,541
  3,741
  3,951
  4,170
  4,398
  4,637
  4,887
  5,149
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  489
  547
  607
  671
  737
  807
  879
  954
  1,033
  1,115
  1,199
  1,287
  1,379
  1,474
  1,573
  1,676
  1,783
  1,895
  2,011
  2,132
  2,258
  2,389
  2,526
  2,669
  2,819
  2,975
  3,138
  3,309
  3,487
  3,674
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  77
  79
  81
  83
  85
  87
  89
  91
  94
  96
  98
  101
  103
  106
  109
  111
  114
  117
  120
  123
  126
  129
  132
  136
  139
  143
  146
  150
  153
  157
Total operating expenses, $m
  508
  566
  626
  688
  754
  822
  894
  968
  1,045
  1,127
  1,211
  1,297
  1,388
  1,482
  1,580
  1,682
  1,787
  1,897
  2,012
  2,131
  2,255
  2,384
  2,518
  2,658
  2,805
  2,958
  3,118
  3,284
  3,459
  3,640
  3,831
Operating income, $m
  101
  119
  140
  163
  186
  211
  236
  263
  291
  321
  351
  383
  416
  450
  486
  523
  562
  602
  644
  688
  733
  781
  830
  882
  936
  993
  1,052
  1,114
  1,179
  1,247
  1,318
EBITDA, $m
  166
  140
  164
  189
  215
  242
  271
  301
  332
  365
  399
  434
  471
  509
  549
  590
  633
  678
  725
  773
  824
  877
  932
  990
  1,050
  1,113
  1,179
  1,248
  1,320
  1,395
  1,474
Interest expense (income), $m
  28
  30
  40
  51
  62
  74
  86
  99
  113
  127
  142
  157
  173
  189
  206
  224
  243
  262
  282
  303
  324
  347
  371
  395
  421
  448
  476
  505
  535
  567
  601
Earnings before tax, $m
  75
  89
  100
  112
  124
  137
  150
  164
  179
  194
  210
  226
  243
  261
  280
  299
  319
  340
  362
  385
  409
  434
  460
  487
  515
  545
  576
  609
  644
  680
  717
Tax expense, $m
  26
  24
  27
  30
  34
  37
  41
  44
  48
  52
  57
  61
  66
  71
  76
  81
  86
  92
  98
  104
  110
  117
  124
  131
  139
  147
  156
  164
  174
  183
  194
Net income, $m
  49
  65
  73
  82
  91
  100
  110
  120
  130
  142
  153
  165
  178
  191
  204
  218
  233
  248
  264
  281
  298
  316
  335
  355
  376
  398
  421
  445
  470
  496
  524

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  25
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,412
  2,687
  3,002
  3,335
  3,684
  4,050
  4,431
  4,830
  5,244
  5,676
  6,125
  6,591
  7,076
  7,579
  8,103
  8,647
  9,213
  9,801
  10,414
  11,052
  11,717
  12,409
  13,132
  13,885
  14,672
  15,493
  16,351
  17,248
  18,185
  19,166
  20,192
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,387
  2,687
  3,002
  3,335
  3,684
  4,050
  4,431
  4,830
  5,244
  5,676
  6,125
  6,591
  7,076
  7,579
  8,103
  8,647
  9,213
  9,801
  10,414
  11,052
  11,717
  12,409
  13,132
  13,885
  14,672
  15,493
  16,351
  17,248
  18,185
  19,166
  20,192
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
Average production assets, $m
  93
  104
  116
  129
  143
  157
  172
  187
  203
  220
  237
  255
  274
  294
  314
  335
  357
  380
  404
  428
  454
  481
  509
  538
  569
  601
  634
  669
  705
  743
  783
Working capital, $m
  -108
  -11
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -82
Total debt, $m
  655
  847
  1,076
  1,317
  1,569
  1,834
  2,110
  2,399
  2,699
  3,011
  3,336
  3,674
  4,025
  4,389
  4,768
  5,162
  5,572
  5,998
  6,442
  6,904
  7,385
  7,886
  8,409
  8,955
  9,524
  10,119
  10,740
  11,389
  12,068
  12,778
  13,521
Total liabilities, $m
  1,752
  1,945
  2,174
  2,415
  2,667
  2,932
  3,208
  3,497
  3,797
  4,109
  4,434
  4,772
  5,123
  5,487
  5,866
  6,260
  6,670
  7,096
  7,540
  8,002
  8,483
  8,984
  9,507
  10,053
  10,622
  11,217
  11,838
  12,487
  13,166
  13,876
  14,619
Total equity, $m
  659
  742
  829
  920
  1,017
  1,118
  1,223
  1,333
  1,447
  1,567
  1,690
  1,819
  1,953
  2,092
  2,236
  2,387
  2,543
  2,705
  2,874
  3,050
  3,234
  3,425
  3,624
  3,832
  4,049
  4,276
  4,513
  4,760
  5,019
  5,290
  5,573
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,411
  2,687
  3,003
  3,335
  3,684
  4,050
  4,431
  4,830
  5,244
  5,676
  6,124
  6,591
  7,076
  7,579
  8,102
  8,647
  9,213
  9,801
  10,414
  11,052
  11,717
  12,409
  13,131
  13,885
  14,671
  15,493
  16,351
  17,247
  18,185
  19,166
  20,192
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.994
  1.140
  1.300
  1.430
  1.540
  1.640
  1.730
  1.800
  1.860
  1.920
  1.970
  2.020
  2.060
  2.100
  2.130
  2.160
  2.190
  2.220
  2.240
  2.260
  2.280
  2.300
  2.320
  2.340
  2.350
  2.370
  2.380
  2.390
  2.400
  2.420
  2.430
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  49
  65
  73
  82
  91
  100
  110
  120
  130
  142
  153
  165
  178
  191
  204
  218
  233
  248
  264
  281
  298
  316
  335
  355
  376
  398
  421
  445
  470
  496
  524
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  65
  21
  24
  26
  29
  32
  35
  38
  41
  44
  48
  51
  55
  59
  63
  67
  71
  76
  81
  86
  91
  96
  102
  108
  114
  120
  127
  134
  141
  149
  157
Funds from operations, $m
  167
  86
  97
  108
  120
  132
  144
  158
  171
  186
  201
  216
  233
  249
  267
  285
  304
  324
  345
  367
  389
  413
  437
  463
  490
  518
  548
  578
  611
  645
  680
Change in working capital, $m
  7
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
Cash from operations, $m
  160
  88
  98
  109
  121
  133
  146
  159
  173
  188
  203
  218
  234
  251
  269
  287
  307
  327
  347
  369
  392
  415
  440
  466
  493
  521
  551
  582
  615
  649
  684
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -26
  -29
  -31
  -34
  -37
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -51
  -55
  -59
  -63
  -67
  -71
  -76
  -81
  -86
  -91
  -96
  -102
  -108
  -114
  -120
  -127
  -134
  -141
  -149
New CAPEX, $m
  -229
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -231
  -31
  -33
  -36
  -40
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -53
  -58
  -61
  -65
  -70
  -75
  -79
  -84
  -89
  -94
  -100
  -106
  -112
  -118
  -124
  -131
  -138
  -146
  -153
  -162
  -170
  -179
  -189
Free cash flow, $m
  -71
  58
  65
  73
  82
  90
  100
  109
  120
  130
  141
  153
  165
  177
  190
  204
  218
  232
  248
  264
  280
  298
  316
  335
  355
  376
  398
  421
  445
  470
  496
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  106
  217
  229
  241
  253
  265
  276
  288
  300
  312
  325
  338
  351
  365
  379
  394
  410
  426
  444
  462
  481
  501
  523
  546
  569
  595
  621
  649
  679
  710
  743
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  17
  14
  10
  6
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  121
  234
  243
  251
  259
  266
  276
  288
  300
  312
  325
  338
  351
  365
  379
  394
  410
  426
  444
  462
  481
  501
  523
  546
  569
  595
  621
  649
  679
  710
  743
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  50
  292
  307
  324
  340
  356
  376
  398
  420
  443
  466
  490
  516
  542
  569
  598
  627
  659
  691
  726
  762
  799
  839
  881
  924
  971
  1,019
  1,070
  1,123
  1,180
  1,239
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -17
  -83
  -87
  -92
  -96
  -101
  -105
  -110
  -114
  -119
  -124
  -129
  -134
  -139
  -144
  -150
  -156
  -162
  -169
  -176
  -183
  -191
  -199
  -208
  -217
  -227
  -237
  -248
  -259
  -271
  -283
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  209
  220
  232
  244
  255
  271
  288
  305
  324
  342
  362
  382
  403
  425
  447
  471
  496
  522
  549
  578
  608
  640
  673
  707
  744
  782
  822
  865
  909
  956
Discount rate, %
 
  7.50
  7.88
  8.27
  8.68
  9.12
  9.57
  10.05
  10.55
  11.08
  11.63
  12.22
  12.83
  13.47
  14.14
  14.85
  15.59
  16.37
  17.19
  18.05
  18.95
  19.90
  20.89
  21.94
  23.04
  24.19
  25.40
  26.67
  28.00
  29.40
  30.87
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  195
  189
  183
  175
  165
  156
  147
  137
  126
  114
  102
  90
  78
  67
  56
  46
  38
  30
  23
  18
  13
  10
  7
  5
  3
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  99.2
  98.6
  98.2
  98.0
  98.0
  98.0
  98.0
  98.0
  98.0
  98.0
  98.0
  98.0
  98.0
  98.0
  98.0
  98.0
  98.0
  98.0
  98.0
  98.0
  98.0
  98.0
  98.0
  98.0
  98.0
  98.0
  98.0
  98.0
  98.0
  98.0

California Water Service Group is a holding company. The Company operates through the supply and distribution of water and providing water-related utility services segment. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides non-regulated services and non-regulated services to private companies and municipalities. The bulk of the business consists of the production, purchase, storage, treatment, testing, distribution and sale of water for domestic, industrial, public and irrigation uses, and for fire protection. It also provides non-regulated water-related services. The non-regulated services include water system operation, billing and meter reading services. Non-regulated operations also include the lease of communication antenna sites, lab services and promotion of other non-regulated services. The Company under its non-regulated contract arrangements, operates municipally owned water systems, privately owned water and recycled water distribution systems.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  California Water Service Group (CWT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 42.8
Price to Sales 3.4
Price to Book 3.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 13.1
Price to Free Cash Flow -30.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 3.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 29.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 13.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0.3
LT Debt to Equity 80.7%
Total Debt to Equity 99.4%
Interest Coverage 4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3%
Return On Total Capital 3.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.3%
Return On Equity 7.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 8%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 27.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 27.6%
Operating Margin 16.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17%
Pre-Tax Margin 12.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.8%
Net Profit Margin 8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.4%
Effective Tax Rate 34.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.4%
Payout Ratio 67.3%

CWT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CWT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $609 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by California Water Service Group. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of California Water Service Group. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CWT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 12.5% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.5%, whose default value for CWT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of California Water Service Group, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of California Water Service Group.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CWT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 71.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $75 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CWT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.7% for California Water Service Group.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for California Water Service Group. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CWT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CWT are equal to 15.2%.

Life of production assets of 1.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in California Water Service Group operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CWT is equal to -1.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $659 million for California Water Service Group - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 48.092 million for California Water Service Group is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of California Water Service Group at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Tiny, Mighty Dividend Stocks   [Nov-01-17 06:40PM  Motley Fool]
▶ California Water Service Group posts 3Q profit   [09:24AM  Associated Press]
▶ California Water Service Group posts 2Q profit   [01:32AM  Associated Press]
▶ California Water Service Group posts 1Q profit   [Apr-27-17 08:54AM  Associated Press]
▶ HNA Group Plans to Acquire CWT for $1 Billion   [Apr-09-17 08:48PM  Bloomberg]
▶ [$$] Rains Expose a New Water Problem in California: Storage   [Mar-07-17 12:57AM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ [$$] An End to Californias Drought Isnt Cut and Dried   [Mar-03-17 11:09PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ [$$] Californias Dams Set to Face New Stress Tests   [Feb-21-17 12:37AM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Top Water Stocks to Buy in 2017 -- and the Ones to Avoid   [Jan-27-17 06:27PM  at Motley Fool]
Financial statements of CWT
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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