Intrinsic value of CyberOptics Corporation - CYBE

Previous Close

$19.67

  Intrinsic Value

$22.67

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

+15%

Previous close

$19.67

 
Intrinsic value

$22.67

 
Up/down potential

+15%

 
Rating

hold

We calculate the intrinsic value of CYBE stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  37.10
  33.89
  31.00
  28.40
  26.06
  23.95
  22.06
  20.35
  18.82
  17.44
  16.19
  15.07
  14.07
  13.16
  12.34
  11.61
  10.95
  10.35
  9.82
  9.34
  8.90
  8.51
  8.16
  7.85
  7.56
  7.30
  7.07
  6.87
  6.68
  6.51
Revenue, $m
  89
  119
  156
  201
  253
  314
  383
  461
  547
  643
  747
  860
  980
  1,109
  1,246
  1,391
  1,543
  1,703
  1,870
  2,045
  2,227
  2,417
  2,614
  2,819
  3,032
  3,253
  3,484
  3,723
  3,972
  4,230
Variable operating expenses, $m
  68
  92
  120
  154
  194
  240
  293
  352
  419
  492
  571
  657
  749
  848
  953
  1,063
  1,180
  1,302
  1,430
  1,563
  1,702
  1,847
  1,998
  2,155
  2,318
  2,487
  2,663
  2,846
  3,036
  3,233
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  14
  15
  15
  15
  16
  16
  16
  17
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
  21
Total operating expenses, $m
  79
  103
  132
  166
  206
  253
  306
  365
  432
  506
  585
  671
  764
  863
  968
  1,079
  1,196
  1,318
  1,447
  1,580
  1,719
  1,865
  2,016
  2,174
  2,337
  2,506
  2,683
  2,866
  3,057
  3,254
Operating income, $m
  9
  16
  25
  35
  47
  61
  77
  95
  115
  137
  162
  188
  216
  246
  278
  312
  348
  385
  424
  465
  507
  552
  598
  646
  695
  747
  801
  857
  915
  976
EBITDA, $m
  11
  18
  27
  37
  50
  65
  81
  100
  121
  145
  170
  197
  227
  258
  292
  327
  364
  403
  444
  487
  531
  577
  625
  676
  728
  782
  838
  896
  957
  1,020
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  4
  4
  5
  6
  8
  9
  10
  12
  13
  15
  17
  18
  20
  22
  24
  26
  29
  31
  33
  36
  38
  41
  44
Earnings before tax, $m
  9
  16
  24
  34
  46
  59
  74
  92
  111
  132
  156
  181
  208
  236
  267
  299
  333
  368
  406
  445
  485
  527
  571
  617
  665
  714
  765
  819
  874
  932
Tax expense, $m
  3
  4
  7
  9
  12
  16
  20
  25
  30
  36
  42
  49
  56
  64
  72
  81
  90
  99
  110
  120
  131
  142
  154
  167
  179
  193
  207
  221
  236
  252
Net income, $m
  7
  12
  18
  25
  33
  43
  54
  67
  81
  96
  114
  132
  151
  172
  195
  218
  243
  269
  296
  325
  354
  385
  417
  450
  485
  521
  559
  598
  638
  680

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  92
  124
  162
  208
  262
  325
  397
  478
  568
  667
  775
  892
  1,017
  1,151
  1,293
  1,443
  1,601
  1,767
  1,940
  2,121
  2,310
  2,507
  2,711
  2,924
  3,145
  3,375
  3,614
  3,862
  4,120
  4,388
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  92
  124
  162
  208
  262
  325
  397
  478
  568
  667
  775
  892
  1,017
  1,151
  1,293
  1,443
  1,601
  1,767
  1,940
  2,121
  2,310
  2,507
  2,711
  2,924
  3,145
  3,375
  3,614
  3,862
  4,120
  4,388
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.967
  0.960
  0.963
  0.966
  0.966
  0.966
  0.965
  0.964
  0.963
  0.964
  0.964
  0.964
  0.964
  0.964
  0.964
  0.964
  0.964
  0.964
  0.964
  0.964
  0.964
  0.964
  0.964
  0.964
  0.964
  0.964
  0.964
  0.964
  0.964
  0.964
Average production assets, $m
  5
  6
  8
  11
  13
  17
  20
  24
  29
  34
  40
  46
  52
  59
  66
  74
  82
  90
  99
  108
  118
  128
  139
  149
  161
  172
  185
  197
  210
  224
Working capital, $m
  29
  39
  51
  66
  83
  103
  126
  152
  180
  211
  246
  283
  323
  365
  410
  458
  508
  560
  615
  673
  733
  795
  860
  927
  998
  1,070
  1,146
  1,225
  1,307
  1,392
Total debt, $m
  5
  11
  19
  28
  39
  52
  66
  82
  100
  120
  141
  165
  190
  217
  245
  275
  307
  340
  375
  411
  449
  488
  529
  571
  616
  662
  709
  759
  810
  864
Total liabilities, $m
  18
  25
  32
  42
  52
  65
  79
  96
  114
  133
  155
  178
  203
  230
  259
  289
  320
  353
  388
  424
  462
  501
  542
  585
  629
  675
  723
  772
  824
  878
Total equity, $m
  74
  99
  130
  167
  210
  260
  318
  382
  454
  533
  620
  713
  814
  921
  1,034
  1,154
  1,281
  1,413
  1,552
  1,697
  1,848
  2,005
  2,169
  2,339
  2,516
  2,700
  2,891
  3,089
  3,296
  3,510
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  92
  124
  162
  209
  262
  325
  397
  478
  568
  666
  775
  891
  1,017
  1,151
  1,293
  1,443
  1,601
  1,766
  1,940
  2,121
  2,310
  2,506
  2,711
  2,924
  3,145
  3,375
  3,614
  3,861
  4,120
  4,388
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.070
  0.110
  0.150
  0.170
  0.190
  0.200
  0.210
  0.210
  0.220
  0.220
  0.230
  0.230
  0.230
  0.240
  0.240
  0.240
  0.240
  0.240
  0.240
  0.240
  0.240
  0.240
  0.240
  0.240
  0.240
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.800
  0.800
  0.800
  0.800
  0.800
  0.800
  0.800
  0.800
  0.800
  0.800
  0.800
  0.800
  0.800
  0.800
  0.800
  0.800
  0.800
  0.800
  0.800
  0.800
  0.800
  0.800
  0.800
  0.800
  0.800
  0.800
  0.800
  0.800
  0.800
  0.800

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  7
  12
  18
  25
  33
  43
  54
  67
  81
  96
  114
  132
  151
  172
  195
  218
  243
  269
  296
  325
  354
  385
  417
  450
  485
  521
  559
  598
  638
  680
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  1
  2
  2
  2
  3
  4
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  12
  13
  15
  16
  18
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  37
  39
  42
  45
Funds from operations, $m
  8
  13
  20
  27
  36
  47
  59
  72
  87
  104
  121
  141
  162
  184
  208
  233
  259
  287
  316
  346
  378
  411
  445
  480
  517
  556
  596
  637
  680
  725
Change in working capital, $m
  8
  10
  12
  15
  17
  20
  23
  26
  29
  31
  34
  37
  40
  42
  45
  48
  50
  53
  55
  57
  60
  62
  65
  67
  70
  73
  76
  79
  82
  85
Cash from operations, $m
  0
  3
  7
  13
  19
  27
  36
  46
  59
  72
  87
  104
  122
  142
  163
  185
  209
  234
  261
  289
  318
  348
  380
  413
  447
  483
  520
  558
  598
  640
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -12
  -13
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -37
  -39
  -42
New CAPEX, $m
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -10
  -11
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -27
  -29
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -50
  -52
  -56
Free cash flow, $m
  -2
  1
  4
  9
  14
  21
  29
  38
  49
  61
  75
  90
  107
  125
  144
  164
  186
  210
  234
  260
  287
  315
  344
  374
  406
  439
  473
  509
  546
  584
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  5
  6
  8
  9
  11
  13
  14
  16
  18
  20
  22
  23
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  13
  13
  13
  12
  10
  7
  3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  18
  19
  21
  21
  21
  20
  17
  16
  18
  20
  22
  23
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  17
  20
  25
  30
  35
  41
  46
  54
  67
  81
  96
  113
  132
  151
  172
  195
  218
  243
  269
  296
  324
  354
  385
  417
  450
  485
  521
  558
  597
  638
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -20
  -25
  -31
  -37
  -43
  -50
  -57
  -65
  -72
  -79
  -86
  -93
  -100
  -107
  -114
  -120
  -126
  -133
  -139
  -145
  -151
  -157
  -164
  -170
  -177
  -184
  -191
  -199
  -206
  -215
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -1
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -10
  -11
  -10
  -5
  2
  10
  20
  31
  44
  59
  74
  92
  110
  130
  151
  173
  197
  221
  247
  273
  301
  330
  360
  391
  423
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -1
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -6
  -3
  1
  5
  9
  12
  15
  17
  19
  20
  20
  20
  19
  18
  16
  14
  13
  11
  9
  7
  6
  4
  3
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  91.1
  84.9
  80.6
  77.7
  75.9
  74.8
  74.5
  74.5
  74.5
  74.5
  74.5
  74.5
  74.5
  74.5
  74.5
  74.5
  74.5
  74.5
  74.5
  74.5
  74.5
  74.5
  74.5
  74.5
  74.5
  74.5
  74.5
  74.5
  74.5
  74.5

Cyberoptics Corporation is a developer and manufacturer of sensing technology solutions. The Company's products and services are used in the surface mount technology (SMT), semiconductor and three dimensional (3D) scanning solutions and services markets. Its products are sold into the electronics assembly, dynamic random access memory (DRAM) and flash memory, and semiconductor fabrication capital equipment markets. The Company develops, manufactures and sells non-contact sensors and systems for process control and inspection, and general purpose metrology. The Company's product offerings are sold to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and end user customers in the SMT circuit board assembly, semiconductor and general-purpose metrology markets. Its OEMs incorporate the Company's sensor offerings into capital equipment serving these industries. The Company also sells standalone inspection systems that are sold directly to circuit board assembly companies.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  CyberOptics Corporation (CYBE)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 11.3
Price to Sales 2.1
Price to Book 2.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 15.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 17
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 61%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 22.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.4%
Return On Total Capital 28.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.7%
Return On Equity 28.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.7%
Asset Turnover 1.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 43.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 44.5%
EBITDA Margin 12.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.8%
Operating Margin 9.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0%
Pre-Tax Margin 9.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.7%
Net Profit Margin 18.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.7%
Effective Tax Rate -100%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -33.3%
Payout Ratio 0%

CYBE stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CYBE stock intrinsic value calculation we used $65 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by CyberOptics Corporation. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of CyberOptics Corporation. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CYBE stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 37.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for CYBE is calculated based on our internal credit rating of CyberOptics Corporation, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of CyberOptics Corporation.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CYBE stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 76.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $11 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CYBE stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for CyberOptics Corporation.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for CyberOptics Corporation. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CYBE stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CYBE are equal to 5.3%.

Life of production assets of 1.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in CyberOptics Corporation operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CYBE is equal to 32.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $56.211 million for CyberOptics Corporation - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 7.102 million for CyberOptics Corporation is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of CyberOptics Corporation at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating
KLAC KLA-Tencor Cor 119.88 263.63  str.buy
AMAT Applied Materi 40.00 56.29  buy
CGNX Cognex Corpora 54.10 19.40  str.sell
BRKS Brooks Automat 30.01 12.74  str.sell
LRCX Lam Research C 180.20 243.92  buy

CONTACT US       ASSET ALLOCATION

About X-FIN       Privacy policy       Terms of use       FAQ

Copyright © X-FIN.com 2005-2019. All rigths reserved.