Intrinsic value of Changyou.com ADR - CYOU

Previous Close

$18.33

  Intrinsic Value

$100.09

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+446%

Previous close

$18.33

 
Intrinsic value

$100.09

 
Up/down potential

+446%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of CYOU stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  10.40
  9.86
  9.37
  8.94
  8.54
  8.19
  7.87
  7.58
  7.32
  7.09
  6.88
  6.69
  6.53
  6.37
  6.24
  6.11
  6.00
  5.90
  5.81
  5.73
  5.66
  5.59
  5.53
  5.48
  5.43
  5.39
  5.35
  5.31
  5.28
  5.25
Revenue, $m
  641
  704
  770
  839
  910
  985
  1,062
  1,143
  1,226
  1,313
  1,404
  1,498
  1,596
  1,697
  1,803
  1,913
  2,028
  2,148
  2,272
  2,403
  2,539
  2,681
  2,829
  2,984
  3,146
  3,315
  3,493
  3,678
  3,873
  4,076
Variable operating expenses, $m
  481
  528
  578
  629
  682
  738
  796
  856
  918
  983
  1,047
  1,117
  1,190
  1,266
  1,345
  1,427
  1,513
  1,602
  1,695
  1,792
  1,893
  1,999
  2,110
  2,225
  2,346
  2,473
  2,605
  2,743
  2,888
  3,040
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  481
  528
  578
  629
  682
  738
  796
  856
  918
  983
  1,047
  1,117
  1,190
  1,266
  1,345
  1,427
  1,513
  1,602
  1,695
  1,792
  1,893
  1,999
  2,110
  2,225
  2,346
  2,473
  2,605
  2,743
  2,888
  3,040
Operating income, $m
  159
  175
  192
  210
  228
  247
  266
  287
  308
  330
  357
  381
  406
  431
  458
  486
  516
  546
  578
  611
  645
  681
  719
  758
  800
  843
  888
  935
  984
  1,036
EBITDA, $m
  183
  201
  220
  239
  260
  281
  303
  326
  350
  375
  401
  428
  456
  485
  515
  546
  579
  613
  649
  686
  725
  765
  808
  852
  898
  947
  997
  1,050
  1,106
  1,164
Interest expense (income), $m
  5
  0
  3
  7
  11
  15
  19
  23
  27
  32
  37
  41
  47
  52
  57
  63
  69
  75
  82
  89
  96
  103
  111
  119
  127
  136
  145
  155
  165
  175
  186
Earnings before tax, $m
  159
  172
  185
  199
  213
  228
  244
  260
  276
  294
  315
  334
  354
  374
  395
  417
  440
  464
  489
  515
  542
  571
  600
  631
  664
  698
  733
  770
  809
  850
Tax expense, $m
  43
  46
  50
  54
  58
  62
  66
  70
  75
  79
  85
  90
  95
  101
  107
  113
  119
  125
  132
  139
  146
  154
  162
  170
  179
  188
  198
  208
  219
  230
Net income, $m
  116
  125
  135
  145
  156
  166
  178
  190
  202
  214
  230
  244
  258
  273
  288
  305
  321
  339
  357
  376
  396
  417
  438
  461
  485
  509
  535
  562
  591
  621

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,660
  1,823
  1,994
  2,172
  2,358
  2,551
  2,752
  2,960
  3,177
  3,403
  3,637
  3,880
  4,133
  4,397
  4,671
  4,957
  5,254
  5,564
  5,887
  6,225
  6,577
  6,944
  7,329
  7,730
  8,150
  8,589
  9,048
  9,529
  10,033
  10,560
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,660
  1,823
  1,994
  2,172
  2,358
  2,551
  2,752
  2,960
  3,177
  3,403
  3,637
  3,880
  4,133
  4,397
  4,671
  4,957
  5,254
  5,564
  5,887
  6,225
  6,577
  6,944
  7,329
  7,730
  8,150
  8,589
  9,048
  9,529
  10,033
  10,560
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.386
  0.386
  0.386
  0.386
  0.386
  0.386
  0.386
  0.386
  0.386
  0.386
  0.386
  0.386
  0.386
  0.386
  0.386
  0.386
  0.386
  0.386
  0.386
  0.386
  0.386
  0.386
  0.386
  0.386
  0.386
  0.386
  0.386
  0.386
  0.386
  0.386
Average production assets, $m
  231
  253
  277
  302
  328
  354
  382
  411
  442
  473
  505
  539
  574
  611
  649
  689
  730
  773
  818
  865
  914
  965
  1,018
  1,074
  1,133
  1,194
  1,257
  1,324
  1,394
  1,467
Working capital, $m
  69
  76
  83
  91
  98
  106
  115
  123
  132
  142
  152
  162
  172
  183
  195
  207
  219
  232
  245
  259
  274
  289
  306
  322
  340
  358
  377
  397
  418
  440
Total debt, $m
  64
  130
  199
  271
  346
  424
  505
  589
  677
  768
  863
  961
  1,063
  1,170
  1,280
  1,396
  1,516
  1,641
  1,772
  1,908
  2,050
  2,199
  2,354
  2,516
  2,686
  2,863
  3,049
  3,243
  3,446
  3,659
Total liabilities, $m
  670
  737
  806
  878
  953
  1,031
  1,112
  1,196
  1,284
  1,375
  1,469
  1,568
  1,670
  1,776
  1,887
  2,002
  2,123
  2,248
  2,378
  2,515
  2,657
  2,806
  2,961
  3,123
  3,293
  3,470
  3,656
  3,850
  4,053
  4,266
Total equity, $m
  989
  1,087
  1,189
  1,295
  1,405
  1,520
  1,640
  1,764
  1,894
  2,028
  2,168
  2,313
  2,464
  2,621
  2,784
  2,954
  3,131
  3,316
  3,509
  3,710
  3,920
  4,139
  4,368
  4,607
  4,857
  5,119
  5,393
  5,679
  5,979
  6,294
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,659
  1,824
  1,995
  2,173
  2,358
  2,551
  2,752
  2,960
  3,178
  3,403
  3,637
  3,881
  4,134
  4,397
  4,671
  4,956
  5,254
  5,564
  5,887
  6,225
  6,577
  6,945
  7,329
  7,730
  8,150
  8,589
  9,049
  9,529
  10,032
  10,560
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.060
  0.120
  0.170
  0.210
  0.250
  0.280
  0.310
  0.330
  0.360
  0.380
  0.400
  0.420
  0.430
  0.450
  0.460
  0.470
  0.480
  0.490
  0.500
  0.510
  0.520
  0.530
  0.540
  0.550
  0.550
  0.560
  0.570
  0.570
  0.580
  0.580
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.596
  0.596
  0.596
  0.596
  0.596
  0.596
  0.596
  0.596
  0.596
  0.596
  0.596
  0.596
  0.596
  0.596
  0.596
  0.596
  0.596
  0.596
  0.596
  0.596
  0.596
  0.596
  0.596
  0.596
  0.596
  0.596
  0.596
  0.596
  0.596
  0.596

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  116
  125
  135
  145
  156
  166
  178
  190
  202
  214
  230
  244
  258
  273
  288
  305
  321
  339
  357
  376
  396
  417
  438
  461
  485
  509
  535
  562
  591
  621
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  37
  39
  42
  45
  44
  47
  50
  53
  56
  60
  63
  67
  71
  75
  79
  84
  89
  93
  98
  104
  109
  115
  121
  128
Funds from operations, $m
  140
  151
  163
  175
  188
  201
  215
  229
  244
  259
  274
  291
  308
  326
  345
  364
  385
  406
  428
  451
  475
  501
  527
  554
  583
  613
  645
  678
  712
  748
Change in working capital, $m
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
Cash from operations, $m
  133
  144
  156
  168
  180
  193
  206
  220
  235
  250
  264
  281
  298
  315
  333
  353
  372
  393
  415
  437
  461
  485
  511
  538
  566
  595
  625
  657
  691
  726
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -31
  -33
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -84
  -89
  -93
  -98
  -104
  -109
  -115
  -121
New CAPEX, $m
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -40
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -59
  -62
  -66
  -69
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -87
  -91
  -96
  -101
  -106
  -112
  -118
  -124
  -130
  -137
  -145
  -151
  -159
  -168
  -176
  -185
  -194
Free cash flow, $m
  93
  101
  110
  119
  128
  138
  148
  158
  169
  180
  191
  203
  216
  229
  242
  256
  271
  287
  303
  319
  337
  355
  373
  393
  414
  435
  458
  481
  506
  532
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  64
  66
  69
  72
  75
  78
  81
  84
  88
  91
  95
  98
  102
  106
  111
  115
  120
  125
  131
  136
  142
  149
  155
  162
  170
  177
  186
  194
  203
  213
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  64
  66
  69
  72
  75
  78
  81
  84
  88
  91
  95
  98
  102
  106
  111
  115
  120
  125
  131
  136
  142
  149
  155
  162
  170
  177
  186
  194
  203
  213
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  157
  168
  179
  191
  203
  216
  229
  242
  256
  271
  285
  301
  318
  335
  353
  372
  391
  412
  433
  455
  479
  503
  529
  555
  583
  613
  643
  676
  709
  745
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -94
  -98
  -102
  -106
  -111
  -115
  -120
  -124
  -129
  -134
  -140
  -145
  -151
  -157
  -163
  -170
  -177
  -185
  -193
  -201
  -210
  -219
  -229
  -239
  -250
  -262
  -274
  -287
  -300
  -314
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  420
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  483
  70
  77
  84
  92
  100
  109
  118
  127
  137
  146
  156
  167
  178
  190
  202
  214
  227
  240
  254
  269
  284
  300
  316
  333
  351
  370
  389
  409
  430
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  463
  64
  67
  70
  72
  73
  74
  74
  73
  72
  69
  67
  63
  60
  56
  51
  47
  42
  37
  32
  28
  24
  20
  16
  13
  10
  8
  6
  4
  3
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Changyou.com Limited is an online game developer and operator. The Company is engaged in the development, operation and licensing of online games for personal computers (PCs) and mobile devices. The Company's segments include Online Game segment, which consists primarily of PC games and mobile games; the Platform Channel segment, which consists primarily of online advertising services offered on the 17173.com Website, Internet value-added services (IVAS) offered on the Dolphin Browser and RaidCall and online card and board games offered by MoboTap, and the Cinema Advertising segment, which consists primarily of the acquisition, from operators of movie theaters, and the sale, to advertisers, of pre-film advertising slots, which are advertisements shown before the screening of a movie in a cinema theater. Its online games include a range of genres, including massively multi-player online role-playing games (MMORPGs), third person shooter games (TPSs) and collectible card games (CCGs).

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Changyou.com ADR (CYOU)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 13.2
Price to Sales 3.7
Price to Book 1.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 9.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 10.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -31.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -63.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -33%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 35
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 8.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.3%
Return On Total Capital 11.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.2%
Return On Equity 13.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.8%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 68.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 71.1%
EBITDA Margin 38.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 27.8%
Operating Margin 24.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 32.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.6%
Net Profit Margin 27.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.4%
Effective Tax Rate 13%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.2%
Payout Ratio 0%

CYOU stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CYOU stock intrinsic value calculation we used $580.261 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Changyou.com ADR. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Changyou.com ADR. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CYOU stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 10.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for CYOU is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Changyou.com ADR, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Changyou.com ADR.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CYOU stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 75.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CYOU stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Changyou.com ADR.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Changyou.com ADR. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CYOU stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CYOU are equal to 36%.

Life of production assets of 11.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Changyou.com ADR operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CYOU is equal to 10.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1315.357 million for Changyou.com ADR - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 17.613 million for Changyou.com ADR is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Changyou.com ADR at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.3 billion.

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