Intrinsic value of CryoPort, Inc. - CYRX

Previous Close

$18.15

  Intrinsic Value

$0.43

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-98%

Previous close

$18.15

 
Intrinsic value

$0.43

 
Up/down potential

-98%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of CYRX stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  60.00
  54.50
  49.55
  45.10
  41.09
  37.48
  34.23
  31.31
  28.68
  26.31
  24.18
  22.26
  20.53
  18.98
  17.58
  16.32
  15.19
  14.17
  13.26
  12.43
  11.69
  11.02
  10.42
  9.87
  9.39
  8.95
  8.55
  8.20
  7.88
  7.59
Revenue, $m
  32
  49
  74
  107
  151
  208
  279
  367
  472
  596
  740
  905
  1,091
  1,298
  1,526
  1,775
  2,045
  2,334
  2,644
  2,973
  3,320
  3,686
  4,070
  4,472
  4,891
  5,329
  5,785
  6,259
  6,752
  7,265
Variable operating expenses, $m
  33
  51
  77
  111
  156
  215
  288
  378
  486
  614
  762
  932
  1,123
  1,337
  1,572
  1,828
  2,106
  2,405
  2,723
  3,062
  3,420
  3,796
  4,192
  4,606
  5,038
  5,489
  5,958
  6,447
  6,955
  7,483
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  13
  13
Total operating expenses, $m
  40
  58
  84
  119
  164
  223
  296
  386
  495
  623
  771
  941
  1,132
  1,346
  1,582
  1,838
  2,116
  2,415
  2,734
  3,073
  3,431
  3,807
  4,204
  4,618
  5,050
  5,501
  5,971
  6,460
  6,968
  7,496
Operating income, $m
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -13
  -15
  -17
  -20
  -23
  -27
  -31
  -36
  -42
  -48
  -55
  -63
  -71
  -80
  -90
  -100
  -111
  -122
  -134
  -146
  -159
  -172
  -186
  -201
  -216
  -231
EBITDA, $m
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -5
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -1
  0
  1
  3
  4
  6
  7
  9
  11
  12
  14
  16
  18
  21
  23
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  1
  1
  1
  2
  3
  4
  6
  8
  11
  14
  17
  21
  26
  32
  38
  44
  52
  60
  68
  77
  87
  97
  108
  119
  131
  143
  156
  169
  183
  198
Earnings before tax, $m
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -13
  -16
  -19
  -23
  -28
  -34
  -41
  -48
  -58
  -68
  -80
  -93
  -108
  -123
  -140
  -158
  -177
  -198
  -219
  -241
  -265
  -290
  -315
  -342
  -370
  -399
  -429
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -13
  -16
  -19
  -23
  -28
  -34
  -41
  -48
  -58
  -68
  -80
  -93
  -108
  -123
  -140
  -158
  -177
  -198
  -219
  -241
  -265
  -290
  -315
  -342
  -370
  -399
  -429

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  19
  30
  45
  65
  91
  125
  168
  221
  284
  359
  446
  545
  657
  782
  919
  1,069
  1,232
  1,406
  1,593
  1,791
  2,000
  2,220
  2,452
  2,694
  2,947
  3,210
  3,485
  3,771
  4,068
  4,376
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  19
  30
  45
  65
  91
  125
  168
  221
  284
  359
  446
  545
  657
  782
  919
  1,069
  1,232
  1,406
  1,593
  1,791
  2,000
  2,220
  2,452
  2,694
  2,947
  3,210
  3,485
  3,771
  4,068
  4,376
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.684
  1.633
  1.644
  1.646
  1.659
  1.664
  1.661
  1.661
  1.662
  1.660
  1.659
  1.661
  1.661
  1.660
  1.661
  1.660
  1.660
  1.660
  1.660
  1.660
  1.660
  1.660
  1.660
  1.660
  1.660
  1.660
  1.660
  1.660
  1.660
  1.660
Average production assets, $m
  6
  9
  13
  19
  26
  36
  49
  64
  83
  104
  130
  158
  191
  227
  267
  311
  358
  409
  463
  520
  581
  645
  712
  783
  856
  933
  1,012
  1,095
  1,182
  1,271
Working capital, $m
  2
  3
  4
  6
  8
  12
  16
  21
  26
  33
  41
  51
  61
  73
  85
  99
  115
  131
  148
  166
  186
  206
  228
  250
  274
  298
  324
  351
  378
  407
Total debt, $m
  14
  24
  37
  55
  79
  110
  148
  196
  253
  320
  398
  487
  588
  700
  824
  959
  1,105
  1,262
  1,430
  1,608
  1,797
  1,995
  2,203
  2,421
  2,649
  2,886
  3,133
  3,390
  3,658
  3,935
Total liabilities, $m
  17
  27
  40
  58
  82
  113
  151
  199
  256
  323
  401
  491
  591
  704
  827
  962
  1,109
  1,266
  1,433
  1,612
  1,800
  1,998
  2,206
  2,424
  2,652
  2,889
  3,136
  3,393
  3,661
  3,939
Total equity, $m
  2
  3
  4
  6
  9
  13
  17
  22
  28
  36
  45
  55
  66
  78
  92
  107
  123
  141
  159
  179
  200
  222
  245
  269
  295
  321
  348
  377
  407
  438
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  19
  30
  44
  64
  91
  126
  168
  221
  284
  359
  446
  546
  657
  782
  919
  1,069
  1,232
  1,407
  1,592
  1,791
  2,000
  2,220
  2,451
  2,693
  2,947
  3,210
  3,484
  3,770
  4,068
  4,377
Debt-to-equity ratio
  7.300
  7.900
  8.260
  8.490
  8.640
  8.740
  8.800
  8.850
  8.880
  8.910
  8.930
  8.940
  8.950
  8.960
  8.960
  8.970
  8.970
  8.980
  8.980
  8.980
  8.980
  8.990
  8.990
  8.990
  8.990
  8.990
  8.990
  8.990
  8.990
  8.990
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -13
  -16
  -19
  -23
  -28
  -34
  -41
  -48
  -58
  -68
  -80
  -93
  -108
  -123
  -140
  -158
  -177
  -198
  -219
  -241
  -265
  -290
  -315
  -342
  -370
  -399
  -429
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  2
  2
  3
  4
  6
  8
  10
  13
  17
  21
  26
  32
  38
  45
  53
  62
  72
  82
  93
  104
  116
  129
  142
  157
  171
  187
  202
  219
  236
  254
Funds from operations, $m
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -13
  -14
  -17
  -19
  -22
  -26
  -30
  -35
  -40
  -46
  -52
  -58
  -66
  -73
  -81
  -90
  -99
  -108
  -118
  -129
  -140
  -151
  -162
  -175
Change in working capital, $m
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
Cash from operations, $m
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -14
  -17
  -19
  -23
  -26
  -31
  -35
  -41
  -46
  -53
  -59
  -67
  -75
  -83
  -92
  -101
  -110
  -120
  -131
  -142
  -153
  -165
  -177
  -190
  -203
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -7
  -10
  -13
  -17
  -21
  -26
  -32
  -38
  -45
  -53
  -62
  -72
  -82
  -93
  -104
  -116
  -129
  -142
  -157
  -171
  -187
  -202
  -219
  -236
New CAPEX, $m
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -6
  -8
  -10
  -12
  -15
  -18
  -22
  -25
  -29
  -33
  -36
  -40
  -44
  -47
  -51
  -54
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -80
  -83
  -86
  -90
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -3
  -4
  -6
  -9
  -12
  -15
  -19
  -25
  -31
  -39
  -46
  -55
  -65
  -74
  -85
  -97
  -109
  -123
  -136
  -151
  -165
  -180
  -196
  -212
  -230
  -248
  -267
  -285
  -305
  -326
Free cash flow, $m
  -11
  -13
  -16
  -19
  -24
  -30
  -36
  -44
  -54
  -65
  -77
  -90
  -105
  -121
  -138
  -156
  -176
  -197
  -219
  -242
  -266
  -291
  -317
  -344
  -372
  -401
  -431
  -463
  -495
  -529
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -1
  9
  13
  18
  24
  31
  39
  47
  57
  67
  78
  89
  101
  112
  124
  135
  146
  157
  168
  178
  188
  198
  208
  218
  228
  237
  247
  257
  267
  278
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  17
  11
  13
  15
  18
  22
  27
  33
  40
  48
  57
  68
  80
  93
  107
  123
  140
  158
  177
  197
  218
  241
  264
  289
  315
  342
  369
  398
  428
  460
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  16
  20
  26
  33
  42
  53
  66
  80
  97
  115
  135
  157
  181
  205
  231
  258
  286
  315
  345
  375
  406
  439
  472
  507
  543
  579
  616
  655
  695
  738
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  5
  7
  10
  14
  18
  23
  29
  36
  43
  51
  59
  67
  76
  84
  93
  101
  110
  118
  126
  134
  141
  149
  156
  163
  171
  178
  185
  193
  200
  208
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -17
  -11
  -13
  -15
  -18
  -22
  -27
  -33
  -40
  -48
  -57
  -68
  -80
  -93
  -107
  -123
  -140
  -158
  -177
  -197
  -218
  -241
  -264
  -289
  -315
  -342
  -369
  -398
  -428
  -460
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  45
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  33
  -4
  -2
  -1
  0
  1
  2
  3
  3
  3
  2
  -1
  -4
  -9
  -14
  -21
  -30
  -40
  -51
  -63
  -77
  -92
  -108
  -126
  -144
  -164
  -184
  -206
  -228
  -251
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  31
  -3
  -2
  -1
  0
  1
  1
  2
  2
  1
  1
  0
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -7
  -6
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  50.0
  31.8
  22.2
  16.6
  12.9
  10.4
  8.5
  7.1
  6.0
  5.2
  4.5
  3.9
  3.4
  3.0
  2.6
  2.3
  2.0
  1.8
  1.6
  1.4
  1.3
  1.1
  1.0
  0.9
  0.8
  0.7
  0.7
  0.6
  0.5
  0.5

Cryoport, Inc. (Cryoport) is a provider of cryogenic logistics solutions to the life sciences industry through its purpose-built packaging, information technology and specialized cold chain logistics expertise. The Company provides logistics solutions for biologic materials, such as immunotherapies, stem cells, chimeric antigen receptors (CAR)-T cells, and reproductive cells for clients. The Company's Cryoport Express Solution includes a cloud-based logistics operating platform, which is branded as the Cryoportal. The Company's Cryoport Express Solutions are made up of the Cryoportal software platform, Cryoport Express Shippers, Cryoport Express Smart Pak data loggers and its life sciences cold chain logistics expertise. The Cryoportal is used by the Company, its clients and its business partners to automate the entry of orders, prepare customs documentation, and to facilitate status and location monitoring of shipped orders while in transit.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  CryoPort, Inc. (CYRX)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -31.9
Price to Sales 53.2
Price to Book 53.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -79.9
Price to Free Cash Flow -63.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 0%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 5
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 16.7%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -142.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -215%
Return On Total Capital -181.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -327.3%
Return On Equity -222.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -63%
Asset Turnover 0.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 50%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.1%
EBITDA Margin -166.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -169.4%
Operating Margin -100%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -133.3%
Pre-Tax Margin -166.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -169.4%
Net Profit Margin -166.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -169.4%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

CYRX stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CYRX stock intrinsic value calculation we used $20 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by CryoPort, Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of CryoPort, Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CYRX stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 60% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for CYRX is calculated based on our internal credit rating of CryoPort, Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of CryoPort, Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CYRX stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 105%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $7 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CYRX stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for CryoPort, Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for CryoPort, Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CYRX stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CYRX are equal to 17.5%.

Life of production assets of 4.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in CryoPort, Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CYRX is equal to 5.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $38.546565 million for CryoPort, Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 30.240 million for CryoPort, Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of CryoPort, Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.5 billion.

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