Intrinsic value of Cytokinetics - CYTK

Previous Close

$8.45

  Intrinsic Value

$1.82

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-78%

Previous close

$8.45

 
Intrinsic value

$1.82

 
Up/down potential

-78%

 
Rating

str. sell

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CYTK stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  265.52
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  106
  108
  111
  113
  117
  120
  124
  128
  133
  138
  143
  149
  155
  161
  168
  175
  183
  191
  200
  209
  218
  228
  239
  250
  262
  275
  288
  302
  316
  332
  348
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  49
  50
  51
  53
  54
  56
  58
  60
  62
  65
  67
  70
  73
  76
  79
  83
  87
  90
  95
  99
  103
  108
  113
  119
  124
  130
  137
  143
  150
  158
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  55
  57
  58
  60
  61
  63
  64
  66
  67
  69
  71
  73
  74
  76
  78
  80
  82
  84
  86
  88
  91
  93
  95
  98
  100
  103
  105
  108
  111
  113
Total operating expenses, $m
  88
  104
  107
  109
  113
  115
  119
  122
  126
  129
  134
  138
  143
  147
  152
  157
  163
  169
  174
  181
  187
  194
  201
  208
  217
  224
  233
  242
  251
  261
  271
Operating income, $m
  19
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  11
  12
  14
  16
  18
  20
  22
  25
  28
  31
  34
  38
  42
  46
  50
  55
  60
  65
  71
  77
EBITDA, $m
  20
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  12
  13
  15
  17
  19
  22
  24
  27
  30
  33
  36
  40
  44
  48
  53
  58
  63
  68
  74
  80
Interest expense (income), $m
  2
  2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
Earnings before tax, $m
  16
  1
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  15
  16
  18
  20
  22
  25
  27
  30
  33
  36
  40
  43
  47
  51
  56
  61
  66
  72
  78
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  18
  19
  21
Net income, $m
  16
  1
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  15
  16
  18
  20
  22
  24
  26
  29
  32
  34
  38
  41
  44
  48
  52
  57

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  156
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  170
  14
  15
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  14
  14
  15
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  7.571
  7.714
  7.400
  7.533
  7.800
  7.500
  7.750
  7.529
  7.389
  7.667
  7.526
  7.450
  7.750
  7.667
  7.636
  7.609
  7.625
  7.640
  7.692
  7.464
  7.517
  7.600
  7.469
  7.576
  7.486
  7.639
  7.579
  7.550
  7.524
  7.545
  7.565
Average production assets, $m
  16
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  51
Working capital, $m
  126
  -28
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -89
Total debt, $m
  30
  -33
  -33
  -33
  -32
  -32
  -31
  -31
  -30
  -30
  -29
  -28
  -28
  -27
  -26
  -25
  -24
  -23
  -22
  -21
  -20
  -19
  -18
  -16
  -15
  -13
  -12
  -10
  -8
  -7
  -5
Total liabilities, $m
  76
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  39
  41
Total equity, $m
  94
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  170
  14
  14
  14
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  37
  38
  40
  42
  43
  46
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.319
  -23.210
  -22.490
  -21.700
  -20.860
  -19.980
  -19.070
  -18.150
  -17.210
  -16.280
  -15.340
  -14.420
  -13.500
  -12.610
  -11.730
  -10.870
  -10.040
  -9.230
  -8.440
  -7.680
  -6.950
  -6.240
  -5.560
  -4.910
  -4.280
  -3.680
  -3.100
  -2.540
  -2.010
  -1.500
  -1.020
Adjusted equity ratio
  -4.429
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  16
  1
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  15
  16
  18
  20
  22
  24
  26
  29
  32
  34
  38
  41
  44
  48
  52
  57
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
Funds from operations, $m
  49
  2
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  15
  16
  18
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  31
  34
  37
  40
  44
  47
  51
  55
  60
Change in working capital, $m
  12
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
Cash from operations, $m
  37
  3
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  12
  14
  15
  16
  18
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  31
  34
  37
  40
  43
  47
  51
  55
  59
  64
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
New CAPEX, $m
  -2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -52
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
Free cash flow, $m
  -15
  1
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  11
  13
  14
  15
  17
  19
  21
  23
  25
  28
  30
  33
  36
  39
  42
  46
  50
  54
  58
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  15
  -60
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  59
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  17
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  2
  1
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  15
  16
  18
  20
  22
  24
  26
  29
  31
  34
  37
  41
  44
  48
  52
  56
  60
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -25
  -60
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  153
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  93
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  15
  16
  18
  20
  22
  24
  26
  29
  31
  34
  37
  40
  44
  48
  52
  56
  60
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  89
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  4
  4
  4
  3
  3
  3
  2
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
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Cytokinetics, Incorporated is a late-stage biopharmaceutical company. The Company is focused on discovering, developing and commercializing first-in-class muscle activators as potential treatments for debilitating diseases in which muscle performance is compromised and/or declining. It is focused on the discovery and development of small molecule therapeutics that modulate muscle function for the treatment of serious diseases and medical conditions. Its drug candidates, which are in clinical development include tirasemtiv, CK-2127107 and omecamtiv mecarbil. Its tirasemtiv and CK-2127107 are skeletal muscle troponin activators. It is developing tirasemtiv drug candidate for the treatment of Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS). The Company is developing CK-2127107 for the potential treatment of spinal muscular atrophy, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and ALS. The Omecamtiv mecarbil is a cardiac muscle myosin activator, which is being evaluated for the treatment of heart failure.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Cytokinetics (CYTK)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 21.5
Price to Sales 3.2
Price to Book 3.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 9.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 9.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 265.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 100%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 14.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 52
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 28.7%
Total Debt to Equity 31.9%
Interest Coverage 9
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 12.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -10.6%
Return On Total Capital 15.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -16.1%
Return On Equity 19.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -16%
Asset Turnover 0.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 17.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -47.2%
Operating Margin 17%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -47.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 15.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -49.3%
Net Profit Margin 15.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -49.3%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

CYTK stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CYTK stock intrinsic value calculation we used $106 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Cytokinetics. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Cytokinetics. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CYTK stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for CYTK is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Cytokinetics, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Cytokinetics.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CYTK stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 45.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $54 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CYTK stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 8.9% for Cytokinetics.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Cytokinetics. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CYTK stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CYTK are equal to 14.6%.

Life of production assets of 15.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Cytokinetics operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CYTK is equal to -25.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $94 million for Cytokinetics - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 53.667 million for Cytokinetics is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Cytokinetics at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.5 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Cytokinetics Crumbles on Late-Stage Results   [11:04AM  24/7 Wall St.]
▶ Why Is Cytokinetics Plunging Today?   [09:47AM  Benzinga]
▶ Is It Too Late To Buy Cytokinetics Incorporated (CYTK)?   [Nov-14-17 09:09AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Cytokinetics reports 3Q loss   [Oct-26-17 05:47PM  Associated Press]
▶ Cytokinetics to Present at September Investor Conferences   [Sep-05-17 04:00PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Cytokinetics reports 2Q loss   [Aug-02-17 10:34PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Cytokinetics, Inc. : July 11, 2017   [Jul-11-17 02:24PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Cytokinetics, Inc. : June 12, 2017   [Jun-12-17 01:58PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Biotech Movers: Anika Up on Strong Analyst Ratings   [May-12-17 09:50AM  TheStreet.com]
▶ Cytokinetics to Hold Annual Meeting of Stockholders   [May-11-17 04:00PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Merger Buzz Drives Akorn to Top of Health Chart in April   [Apr-30-17 04:20PM  TheStreet.com]
▶ Cytokinetics reports 1Q loss   [Apr-28-17 05:00AM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Cytokinetics, Inc. : April 24, 2017   [Apr-24-17 02:25PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Cytokinetics Added to S&P SmallCap 600   [Apr-21-17 04:00PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Why Cytokinetics, Inc. Jumped Higher Today   [Apr-18-17 12:50PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Cytokinetics SMA Drug Did Well in Early Study   [Mar-22-17 03:10PM  Investopedia]
▶ Key Indexes Rise, Steel Stocks Up Before Fed News; A Curious Trend In IBD 50   [Mar-15-17 01:36PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ 7 Stocks Trending Up With Monster Volume   [Mar-09-17 07:00AM  TheStreet.com]
Financial statements of CYTK
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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