Intrinsic value of Data I/O - DAIO

Previous Close

$6.62

  Intrinsic Value

$149.40

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+999%

Previous close

$6.62

 
Intrinsic value

$149.40

 
Up/down potential

+999%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of DAIO stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  45.40
  41.36
  37.72
  34.45
  31.51
  28.86
  26.47
  24.32
  22.39
  20.65
  19.09
  17.68
  16.41
  15.27
  14.24
  13.32
  12.49
  11.74
  11.06
  10.46
  9.91
  9.42
  8.98
  8.58
  8.22
  7.90
  7.61
  7.35
  7.11
  6.90
Revenue, $m
  49
  70
  96
  129
  170
  219
  277
  345
  422
  509
  606
  713
  831
  957
  1,094
  1,239
  1,394
  1,558
  1,730
  1,911
  2,100
  2,298
  2,505
  2,720
  2,943
  3,176
  3,417
  3,669
  3,930
  4,201
Variable operating expenses, $m
  32
  45
  62
  84
  110
  142
  179
  223
  273
  329
  392
  461
  537
  618
  707
  801
  901
  1,006
  1,118
  1,235
  1,357
  1,485
  1,618
  1,757
  1,901
  2,052
  2,208
  2,370
  2,539
  2,714
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  13
  13
Total operating expenses, $m
  39
  52
  69
  92
  118
  150
  187
  231
  282
  338
  401
  470
  546
  627
  717
  811
  911
  1,016
  1,129
  1,246
  1,368
  1,496
  1,630
  1,769
  1,913
  2,064
  2,221
  2,383
  2,552
  2,727
Operating income, $m
  10
  17
  27
  38
  52
  70
  90
  114
  141
  172
  206
  243
  285
  329
  377
  429
  483
  541
  602
  666
  733
  802
  875
  951
  1,030
  1,112
  1,197
  1,286
  1,378
  1,474
EBITDA, $m
  11
  18
  27
  39
  54
  71
  92
  116
  144
  175
  210
  248
  290
  336
  384
  437
  492
  551
  613
  678
  746
  817
  891
  968
  1,049
  1,132
  1,219
  1,309
  1,403
  1,501
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  9
  10
  12
  14
  16
  18
  20
  22
  24
  27
  30
  32
  35
  38
  41
  44
  47
  51
Earnings before tax, $m
  10
  17
  26
  37
  51
  68
  88
  111
  137
  166
  200
  236
  276
  319
  365
  415
  468
  523
  582
  644
  708
  775
  846
  919
  995
  1,074
  1,156
  1,242
  1,331
  1,423
Tax expense, $m
  3
  5
  7
  10
  14
  18
  24
  30
  37
  45
  54
  64
  74
  86
  99
  112
  126
  141
  157
  174
  191
  209
  228
  248
  269
  290
  312
  335
  359
  384
Net income, $m
  8
  13
  19
  27
  37
  50
  64
  81
  100
  122
  146
  172
  201
  233
  267
  303
  341
  382
  425
  470
  517
  566
  617
  671
  726
  784
  844
  906
  971
  1,039

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  28
  40
  55
  74
  97
  125
  158
  197
  241
  291
  346
  407
  474
  547
  625
  708
  796
  890
  988
  1,091
  1,200
  1,313
  1,430
  1,553
  1,681
  1,814
  1,952
  2,095
  2,244
  2,399
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  28
  40
  55
  74
  97
  125
  158
  197
  241
  291
  346
  407
  474
  547
  625
  708
  796
  890
  988
  1,091
  1,200
  1,313
  1,430
  1,553
  1,681
  1,814
  1,952
  2,095
  2,244
  2,399
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.750
  1.750
  1.745
  1.743
  1.753
  1.752
  1.753
  1.751
  1.751
  1.749
  1.751
  1.752
  1.753
  1.750
  1.750
  1.750
  1.751
  1.751
  1.751
  1.752
  1.750
  1.750
  1.752
  1.751
  1.751
  1.751
  1.751
  1.751
  1.751
  1.751
Average production assets, $m
  3
  4
  6
  8
  11
  14
  18
  22
  27
  33
  39
  46
  53
  61
  70
  79
  89
  100
  111
  122
  134
  147
  160
  174
  188
  203
  219
  235
  251
  269
Working capital, $m
  3
  5
  7
  9
  12
  15
  19
  24
  29
  35
  42
  49
  57
  66
  75
  86
  96
  107
  119
  132
  145
  159
  173
  188
  203
  219
  236
  253
  271
  290
Total debt, $m
  4
  9
  15
  23
  33
  45
  59
  75
  94
  115
  138
  164
  192
  223
  256
  291
  329
  368
  410
  453
  499
  547
  597
  649
  703
  759
  817
  878
  941
  1,007
Total liabilities, $m
  12
  17
  23
  31
  41
  53
  67
  83
  102
  123
  146
  172
  201
  231
  264
  299
  337
  376
  418
  462
  507
  555
  605
  657
  711
  767
  826
  886
  949
  1,015
Total equity, $m
  16
  23
  32
  43
  56
  72
  91
  114
  139
  168
  200
  235
  274
  315
  360
  408
  459
  513
  570
  630
  692
  757
  825
  896
  970
  1,046
  1,126
  1,209
  1,295
  1,384
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  28
  40
  55
  74
  97
  125
  158
  197
  241
  291
  346
  407
  475
  546
  624
  707
  796
  889
  988
  1,092
  1,199
  1,312
  1,430
  1,553
  1,681
  1,813
  1,952
  2,095
  2,244
  2,399
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.220
  0.370
  0.470
  0.540
  0.590
  0.620
  0.640
  0.660
  0.670
  0.680
  0.690
  0.700
  0.700
  0.710
  0.710
  0.710
  0.720
  0.720
  0.720
  0.720
  0.720
  0.720
  0.720
  0.720
  0.720
  0.730
  0.730
  0.730
  0.730
  0.730
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.577
  0.577
  0.577
  0.577
  0.577
  0.577
  0.577
  0.577
  0.577
  0.577
  0.577
  0.577
  0.577
  0.577
  0.577
  0.577
  0.577
  0.577
  0.577
  0.577
  0.577
  0.577
  0.577
  0.577
  0.577
  0.577
  0.577
  0.577
  0.577
  0.577

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  8
  13
  19
  27
  37
  50
  64
  81
  100
  122
  146
  172
  201
  233
  267
  303
  341
  382
  425
  470
  517
  566
  617
  671
  726
  784
  844
  906
  971
  1,039
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  22
  23
  25
  27
Funds from operations, $m
  8
  13
  20
  28
  38
  51
  66
  83
  103
  125
  150
  177
  207
  239
  274
  311
  350
  392
  436
  482
  530
  581
  633
  688
  745
  804
  866
  930
  996
  1,066
Change in working capital, $m
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
Cash from operations, $m
  7
  12
  18
  26
  36
  48
  62
  78
  97
  119
  143
  169
  199
  230
  264
  301
  340
  381
  424
  470
  517
  567
  619
  673
  730
  788
  849
  913
  978
  1,047
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -25
New CAPEX, $m
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -9
  -9
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -34
  -35
  -38
  -40
  -42
Free cash flow, $m
  6
  10
  16
  23
  32
  43
  57
  72
  90
  110
  133
  159
  187
  217
  250
  285
  322
  361
  403
  447
  493
  541
  591
  643
  698
  755
  813
  875
  938
  1,004
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  4
  5
  6
  8
  10
  12
  14
  16
  19
  21
  23
  26
  28
  31
  33
  35
  37
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  61
  63
  66
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  4
  5
  6
  8
  10
  12
  14
  16
  19
  21
  23
  26
  28
  31
  33
  35
  37
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  61
  63
  66
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  9
  15
  22
  31
  42
  55
  71
  88
  109
  132
  157
  185
  215
  247
  282
  320
  359
  401
  445
  491
  539
  589
  641
  695
  752
  811
  872
  935
  1,001
  1,070
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -5
  -7
  -9
  -11
  -13
  -16
  -19
  -22
  -25
  -29
  -32
  -35
  -39
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -83
  -86
  -89
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  11
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  1
  1
  1
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  9
  11
  13
  15
  17
  20
  23
  26
  29
  33
  36
  40
  44
  48
  53
  57
  62
  67
  72
  77
  83
Cash available for distribution, $m
  15
  8
  13
  20
  29
  39
  52
  66
  83
  103
  125
  149
  176
  206
  238
  272
  308
  347
  388
  431
  476
  524
  573
  625
  678
  734
  792
  853
  915
  980
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  14
  7
  12
  17
  22
  28
  35
  41
  48
  54
  59
  64
  67
  69
  70
  69
  67
  64
  60
  55
  49
  43
  38
  32
  26
  21
  17
  13
  10
  7
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
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Data I/O Corporation provides programming and associated intellectual property management solutions. The Company's solutions are used in the manufacturing of flash, microcontrollers and flash-memory-based intelligent devices. It designs, manufactures and sells programming systems used by designers and manufacturers of electronic products. Its solutions, including associated intellectual property management, secure content management and process control capabilities, enable it to address the requirements of the electronic device market. It provides services related to hardware support, system installation and repair, and device programming. Its programming solutions include a range of products, systems, modules and accessories, grouped into over two categories, such as automated programming systems and manual programming systems. Its products include PSV Handlers, RoadRunner and RoadRunner3 Series Handlers, LumenX Programmer, FlashPAK III programmer and Sprint/Unifamily programmers.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Data I/O (DAIO)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 26.5
Price to Sales 2.3
Price to Book 3.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 17.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 53.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 4.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 100%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 14.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 9.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.6%
Return On Total Capital 12.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.1%
Return On Equity 12.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.1%
Asset Turnover 1.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 56.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 55.2%
EBITDA Margin 13%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.4%
Operating Margin 4.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 8.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.9%
Net Profit Margin 8.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.9%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

DAIO stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the DAIO stock intrinsic value calculation we used $34 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Data I/O. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Data I/O. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our DAIO stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 45.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for DAIO is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Data I/O, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Data I/O.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of DAIO stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 64.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $7 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for DAIO stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Data I/O.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Data I/O. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the DAIO stock is equal to 2.1%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for DAIO are equal to 6.4%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Data I/O operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for DAIO is equal to 6.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $22 million for Data I/O - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 8 million for Data I/O is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Data I/O at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ What Is Data I/O Corporations (NASDAQ:DAIO) Share Price Doing?   [Jun-22-18 01:09PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Data I/O Corporation Announces Upcoming Investor Events   [May-08-18 09:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Data I/O Reports First Quarter 2018 Results   [Apr-26-18 04:00PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Top NYSE Companies To Buy For Cheap   [Apr-24-18 10:02AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Data I/O Corporation Announces Upcoming Investor Events   [Apr-04-18 09:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Data I/O to Present at 30th Annual ROTH Conference   [Mar-05-18 03:05PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Data I/O Reports Fourth Quarter 2017 Results   [Feb-22-18 04:05PM  Marketwired]
▶ Data I/O Earns ISO 9001:2015 Certifications   [Feb-01-18 09:00AM  Marketwired]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Data I/O Corp. : January 1, 2018   [Jan-01-18 11:32AM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Data I/O Corp. : December 8, 2017   [Dec-08-17 12:38PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Data I/O Corp. : November 27, 2017   [Nov-27-17 01:04PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Data I/O Corp. : November 8, 2017   [Nov-08-17 05:54PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Data I/O Reports Third Quarter 2017 Results   [Oct-26-17 04:05PM  Marketwired]
▶ DATA I/O CORP to Host Earnings Call   [12:35PM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Data I/O Corp. : October 23, 2017   [Oct-23-17 10:32AM  Capital Cube]
▶ Data I/O Corporation Announces Upcoming Investor Events   [Oct-12-17 01:08PM  Marketwired]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Data I/O Corp. : October 3, 2017   [Oct-03-17 11:09AM  Capital Cube]
▶ Data I/O Reports Second Quarter 2017 Results   [Jul-27-17 04:05PM  Marketwired]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Data I/O Corp. : July 5, 2017   [Jul-05-17 12:38PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Data I/O Corp. : May 31, 2017   [May-31-17 12:28PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Data I/O Corp. : May 18, 2017   [May-18-17 01:39PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Data I/O Reports First Quarter 2017 Results   [May-04-17 04:05PM  Marketwired]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Data I/O Corp. : April 5, 2017   [Apr-05-17 04:37PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Data I/O Corporation Announces Upcoming Investor Events   [Feb-07-17 09:00AM  Marketwired]
▶ Data I/O Reports Third Quarter 2016 Results   [Oct-27-16 04:05PM  Marketwired]
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