Intrinsic value of Darling Ingredients - DAR

Previous Close

$17.55

  Intrinsic Value

$6.48

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-63%

Previous close

$17.55

 
Intrinsic value

$6.48

 
Up/down potential

-63%

 
Rating

str. sell

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of DAR stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  0.03
  2.20
  2.48
  2.73
  2.96
  3.16
  3.35
  3.51
  3.66
  3.79
  3.92
  4.02
  4.12
  4.21
  4.29
  4.36
  4.42
  4.48
  4.53
  4.58
  4.62
  4.66
  4.69
  4.72
  4.75
  4.78
  4.80
  4.82
  4.84
  4.85
  4.87
Revenue, $m
  3,398
  3,473
  3,559
  3,656
  3,764
  3,883
  4,013
  4,154
  4,306
  4,470
  4,645
  4,832
  5,031
  5,243
  5,467
  5,706
  5,958
  6,225
  6,507
  6,805
  7,120
  7,452
  7,801
  8,170
  8,558
  8,967
  9,397
  9,850
  10,326
  10,828
  11,355
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  3,324
  3,404
  3,493
  3,593
  3,703
  3,823
  3,952
  4,093
  4,243
  4,405
  4,454
  4,638
  4,833
  5,040
  5,260
  5,493
  5,739
  5,999
  6,274
  6,564
  6,870
  7,192
  7,532
  7,890
  8,267
  8,663
  9,081
  9,520
  9,982
  10,468
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  3,246
  3,324
  3,404
  3,493
  3,593
  3,703
  3,823
  3,952
  4,093
  4,243
  4,405
  4,454
  4,638
  4,833
  5,040
  5,260
  5,493
  5,739
  5,999
  6,274
  6,564
  6,870
  7,192
  7,532
  7,890
  8,267
  8,663
  9,081
  9,520
  9,982
  10,468
Operating income, $m
  152
  149
  155
  163
  171
  181
  191
  202
  214
  226
  240
  377
  393
  409
  427
  445
  465
  486
  508
  531
  556
  582
  609
  638
  668
  700
  734
  769
  806
  845
  887
EBITDA, $m
  442
  464
  475
  488
  503
  518
  536
  555
  575
  597
  620
  645
  672
  700
  730
  762
  795
  831
  869
  908
  950
  995
  1,041
  1,091
  1,142
  1,197
  1,254
  1,315
  1,379
  1,445
  1,516
Interest expense (income), $m
  82
  78
  81
  84
  87
  91
  95
  100
  105
  110
  116
  123
  129
  136
  144
  152
  161
  170
  179
  189
  200
  211
  223
  236
  249
  263
  277
  293
  309
  326
  344
Earnings before tax, $m
  123
  71
  75
  79
  84
  90
  95
  102
  109
  116
  124
  255
  264
  273
  283
  293
  305
  316
  329
  342
  356
  371
  386
  402
  419
  437
  456
  476
  497
  519
  542
Tax expense, $m
  16
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  31
  33
  69
  71
  74
  76
  79
  82
  85
  89
  92
  96
  100
  104
  109
  113
  118
  123
  129
  134
  140
  146
Net income, $m
  102
  52
  55
  58
  61
  65
  70
  74
  79
  85
  90
  186
  192
  199
  207
  214
  222
  231
  240
  250
  260
  270
  282
  294
  306
  319
  333
  348
  363
  379
  396

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  115
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  4,698
  4,687
  4,803
  4,934
  5,080
  5,241
  5,416
  5,606
  5,812
  6,032
  6,268
  6,520
  6,789
  7,075
  7,378
  7,700
  8,041
  8,401
  8,782
  9,184
  9,608
  10,056
  10,528
  11,025
  11,549
  12,101
  12,682
  13,293
  13,936
  14,612
  15,324
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  4,583
  4,687
  4,803
  4,934
  5,080
  5,241
  5,416
  5,606
  5,812
  6,032
  6,268
  6,520
  6,789
  7,075
  7,378
  7,700
  8,041
  8,401
  8,782
  9,184
  9,608
  10,056
  10,528
  11,025
  11,549
  12,101
  12,682
  13,293
  13,936
  14,612
  15,324
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
Average production assets, $m
  2,259
  2,309
  2,367
  2,431
  2,503
  2,582
  2,669
  2,763
  2,864
  2,972
  3,089
  3,213
  3,345
  3,486
  3,636
  3,794
  3,962
  4,140
  4,327
  4,525
  4,735
  4,955
  5,188
  5,433
  5,691
  5,963
  6,249
  6,550
  6,867
  7,200
  7,551
Working capital, $m
  441
  358
  367
  377
  388
  400
  413
  428
  444
  460
  478
  498
  518
  540
  563
  588
  614
  641
  670
  701
  733
  768
  804
  841
  881
  924
  968
  1,015
  1,064
  1,115
  1,170
Total debt, $m
  1,751
  1,791
  1,860
  1,937
  2,023
  2,118
  2,221
  2,334
  2,455
  2,585
  2,724
  2,873
  3,032
  3,200
  3,379
  3,569
  3,770
  3,983
  4,207
  4,444
  4,695
  4,959
  5,238
  5,531
  5,840
  6,166
  6,508
  6,869
  7,248
  7,647
  8,067
Total liabilities, $m
  2,725
  2,765
  2,834
  2,911
  2,997
  3,092
  3,195
  3,308
  3,429
  3,559
  3,698
  3,847
  4,006
  4,174
  4,353
  4,543
  4,744
  4,957
  5,181
  5,418
  5,669
  5,933
  6,212
  6,505
  6,814
  7,140
  7,482
  7,843
  8,222
  8,621
  9,041
Total equity, $m
  1,973
  1,921
  1,969
  2,023
  2,083
  2,149
  2,221
  2,299
  2,383
  2,473
  2,570
  2,673
  2,784
  2,901
  3,025
  3,157
  3,297
  3,444
  3,600
  3,765
  3,939
  4,123
  4,316
  4,520
  4,735
  4,961
  5,200
  5,450
  5,714
  5,991
  6,283
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  4,698
  4,686
  4,803
  4,934
  5,080
  5,241
  5,416
  5,607
  5,812
  6,032
  6,268
  6,520
  6,790
  7,075
  7,378
  7,700
  8,041
  8,401
  8,781
  9,183
  9,608
  10,056
  10,528
  11,025
  11,549
  12,101
  12,682
  13,293
  13,936
  14,612
  15,324
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.887
  0.930
  0.940
  0.960
  0.970
  0.990
  1.000
  1.020
  1.030
  1.050
  1.060
  1.070
  1.090
  1.100
  1.120
  1.130
  1.140
  1.160
  1.170
  1.180
  1.190
  1.200
  1.210
  1.220
  1.230
  1.240
  1.250
  1.260
  1.270
  1.280
  1.280
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.405
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  102
  52
  55
  58
  61
  65
  70
  74
  79
  85
  90
  186
  192
  199
  207
  214
  222
  231
  240
  250
  260
  270
  282
  294
  306
  319
  333
  348
  363
  379
  396
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  290
  315
  320
  325
  331
  338
  345
  353
  361
  370
  380
  268
  279
  291
  303
  316
  330
  345
  361
  377
  395
  413
  432
  453
  474
  497
  521
  546
  572
  600
  629
Funds from operations, $m
  444
  367
  374
  383
  393
  403
  415
  427
  441
  455
  470
  454
  471
  490
  509
  530
  553
  576
  601
  627
  654
  683
  714
  746
  780
  816
  854
  893
  935
  979
  1,025
Change in working capital, $m
  53
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  47
  49
  52
  54
Cash from operations, $m
  391
  359
  365
  373
  381
  391
  401
  413
  425
  438
  452
  434
  451
  468
  486
  506
  527
  548
  572
  596
  622
  649
  678
  708
  740
  774
  810
  847
  886
  927
  971
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -188
  -192
  -197
  -203
  -209
  -215
  -222
  -230
  -239
  -248
  -257
  -268
  -279
  -291
  -303
  -316
  -330
  -345
  -361
  -377
  -395
  -413
  -432
  -453
  -474
  -497
  -521
  -546
  -572
  -600
New CAPEX, $m
  -244
  -50
  -57
  -65
  -72
  -79
  -86
  -94
  -101
  -109
  -116
  -124
  -132
  -141
  -150
  -158
  -168
  -178
  -188
  -198
  -209
  -221
  -233
  -245
  -258
  -272
  -286
  -301
  -317
  -333
  -351
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -243
  -238
  -249
  -262
  -275
  -288
  -301
  -316
  -331
  -348
  -364
  -381
  -400
  -420
  -441
  -461
  -484
  -508
  -533
  -559
  -586
  -616
  -646
  -677
  -711
  -746
  -783
  -822
  -863
  -905
  -951
Free cash flow, $m
  148
  120
  116
  111
  107
  103
  100
  96
  94
  91
  88
  53
  50
  48
  46
  44
  43
  41
  39
  37
  36
  34
  33
  31
  29
  28
  26
  25
  23
  22
  20
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -172
  63
  69
  77
  86
  95
  103
  112
  121
  130
  139
  149
  159
  169
  179
  190
  201
  213
  225
  237
  250
  264
  278
  293
  309
  325
  343
  361
  379
  399
  420
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -5
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  2
  4
  5
  6
  6
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -184
  63
  69
  77
  86
  95
  105
  116
  126
  136
  145
  149
  159
  169
  179
  190
  201
  213
  225
  237
  250
  264
  278
  293
  309
  325
  343
  361
  379
  399
  420
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -42
  183
  184
  189
  193
  198
  205
  212
  219
  227
  234
  202
  209
  217
  225
  234
  243
  253
  264
  275
  286
  298
  311
  324
  339
  353
  369
  386
  403
  421
  440
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -102
  -40
  -48
  -54
  -60
  -66
  -72
  -78
  -84
  -90
  -97
  -103
  -110
  -117
  -124
  -132
  -140
  -148
  -156
  -165
  -174
  -184
  -194
  -204
  -215
  -226
  -238
  -251
  -264
  -277
  -292
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  92
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  235
  137
  135
  133
  133
  133
  134
  135
  136
  137
  98
  99
  100
  101
  102
  104
  106
  108
  110
  112
  115
  117
  121
  124
  127
  131
  135
  139
  144
  148
Discount rate, %
 
  7.50
  7.88
  8.27
  8.68
  9.12
  9.57
  10.05
  10.55
  11.08
  11.63
  12.22
  12.83
  13.47
  14.14
  14.85
  15.59
  16.37
  17.19
  18.05
  18.95
  19.90
  20.89
  21.94
  23.04
  24.19
  25.40
  26.67
  28.00
  29.40
  30.87
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  219
  117
  106
  95
  86
  77
  69
  61
  53
  46
  28
  23
  19
  16
  13
  10
  8
  6
  5
  3
  3
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  99.9
  99.8
  99.7
  99.5
  99.3
  99.3
  99.3
  99.3
  99.3
  99.3
  99.3
  99.3
  99.3
  99.3
  99.3
  99.3
  99.3
  99.3
  99.3
  99.3
  99.3
  99.3
  99.3
  99.3
  99.3

Darling Ingredients Inc. (Darling) is a developer and producer of sustainable natural ingredients from edible and inedible bio-nutrients, creating a range of ingredients and customized specialty solutions for customers in the pharmaceutical, food, pet food, feed, industrial, fuel, bioenergy and fertilizer industries. The Company operates through three segments: Feed Ingredients, Food Ingredients and Fuel Ingredients. The Company collects and transforms all aspects of animal by-product streams into useable and specialty ingredients, such as gelatin, edible fats, feed-grade fats, animal proteins and meals, plasma, pet food ingredients, organic fertilizers, yellow grease, fuel feedstocks, green energy, natural casings and hides. In addition, the Company provides grease trap services to food service establishments, environmental services to food processors and sells restaurant cooking oil delivery and collection equipment.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Darling Ingredients (DAR)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 28.3
Price to Sales 0.9
Price to Book 1.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 7.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 19.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 0%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 4.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 15.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 5
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 87.6%
Total Debt to Equity 88.7%
Interest Coverage 3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.4%
Return On Total Capital 2.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.2%
Return On Equity 5.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.2%
Asset Turnover 0.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 22.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.7%
EBITDA Margin 14.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.1%
Operating Margin 4.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 3.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.9%
Net Profit Margin 3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.3%
Effective Tax Rate 13%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.4%
Payout Ratio 0%

DAR stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the DAR stock intrinsic value calculation we used $3398 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Darling Ingredients. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Darling Ingredients. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our DAR stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.5%, whose default value for DAR is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Darling Ingredients, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Darling Ingredients.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of DAR stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 95.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for DAR stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.5% for Darling Ingredients.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Darling Ingredients. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the DAR stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for DAR are equal to 66.5%.

Life of production assets of 12 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Darling Ingredients operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for DAR is equal to 10.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1973 million for Darling Ingredients - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 164.564 million for Darling Ingredients is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Darling Ingredients at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.9 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Darling misses 3Q profit forecasts   [Nov-07-17 06:11PM  Associated Press]
▶ A Solid Growth Stock to Consider   [Aug-29-17 04:18PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ Darling Ingredients Mixes Up a Decent Quarter   [Aug-10-17 10:30PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Darling tops 2Q revenue forecasts   [Aug-09-17 10:21PM  Associated Press]
▶ 10 Low-Key Companies That Are Changing Aquaculture   [Jul-11-17 11:37AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Darling misses 1Q profit forecasts   [May-11-17 05:50PM  Associated Press]
▶ 3 Top Stocks You've Been Overlooking   [Mar-08-17 08:05AM  Motley Fool]
▶ 3 Top Stocks You've Been Overlooking   [08:05AM  at Motley Fool]
Financial statements of DAR
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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