Intrinsic value of Tableau Software - DATA

Previous Close

$71.59

  Intrinsic Value

$3.47

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-95%

Previous close

$71.59

 
Intrinsic value

$3.47

 
Up/down potential

-95%

 
Rating

str. sell

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of DATA stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 5.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  26.45
  7.00
  6.80
  6.62
  6.46
  6.31
  6.18
  6.06
  5.96
  5.86
  5.77
  5.70
  5.63
  5.56
  5.51
  5.46
  5.41
  5.37
  5.33
  5.30
  5.27
  5.24
  5.22
  5.20
  5.18
  5.16
  5.14
  5.13
  5.12
  5.10
  5.09
Revenue, $m
  827
  885
  945
  1,008
  1,073
  1,140
  1,211
  1,284
  1,361
  1,441
  1,524
  1,611
  1,701
  1,796
  1,895
  1,998
  2,106
  2,219
  2,338
  2,462
  2,592
  2,727
  2,870
  3,019
  3,175
  3,339
  3,511
  3,691
  3,880
  4,078
  4,285
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  956
  1,020
  1,088
  1,158
  1,231
  1,307
  1,386
  1,469
  1,555
  1,644
  1,736
  1,834
  1,936
  2,043
  2,154
  2,271
  2,393
  2,520
  2,654
  2,794
  2,940
  3,094
  3,255
  3,423
  3,600
  3,785
  3,979
  4,182
  4,396
  4,620
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  967
  956
  1,020
  1,088
  1,158
  1,231
  1,307
  1,386
  1,469
  1,555
  1,644
  1,736
  1,834
  1,936
  2,043
  2,154
  2,271
  2,393
  2,520
  2,654
  2,794
  2,940
  3,094
  3,255
  3,423
  3,600
  3,785
  3,979
  4,182
  4,396
  4,620
Operating income, $m
  -140
  -71
  -75
  -80
  -85
  -91
  -96
  -102
  -108
  -114
  -121
  -126
  -133
  -140
  -148
  -156
  -164
  -173
  -183
  -192
  -202
  -213
  -224
  -236
  -248
  -261
  -274
  -288
  -303
  -318
  -335
EBITDA, $m
  -97
  -50
  -53
  -57
  -61
  -64
  -68
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -86
  -91
  -96
  -101
  -107
  -113
  -119
  -125
  -132
  -139
  -146
  -154
  -162
  -170
  -179
  -189
  -198
  -208
  -219
  -230
  -242
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -1
  0
  1
  2
  3
  5
  6
  7
  9
  10
  11
  13
  15
  16
  18
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  31
  33
  36
  39
  41
Earnings before tax, $m
  -137
  -71
  -71
  -77
  -83
  -89
  -95
  -102
  -109
  -116
  -124
  -130
  -139
  -147
  -156
  -166
  -176
  -186
  -197
  -209
  -220
  -233
  -246
  -260
  -274
  -289
  -305
  -321
  -339
  -357
  -376
Tax expense, $m
  7
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -144
  -71
  -71
  -77
  -83
  -89
  -95
  -102
  -109
  -116
  -124
  -130
  -139
  -147
  -156
  -166
  -176
  -186
  -197
  -209
  -220
  -233
  -246
  -260
  -274
  -289
  -305
  -321
  -339
  -357
  -376

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  909
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,287
  404
  432
  461
  490
  521
  553
  587
  622
  658
  696
  736
  778
  821
  866
  913
  963
  1,014
  1,068
  1,125
  1,184
  1,247
  1,312
  1,380
  1,451
  1,526
  1,605
  1,687
  1,773
  1,864
  1,959
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  378
  404
  432
  461
  490
  521
  553
  587
  622
  658
  696
  736
  778
  821
  866
  913
  963
  1,014
  1,068
  1,125
  1,184
  1,247
  1,312
  1,380
  1,451
  1,526
  1,605
  1,687
  1,773
  1,864
  1,959
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.188
  2.191
  2.188
  2.187
  2.190
  2.188
  2.190
  2.187
  2.188
  2.190
  2.190
  2.189
  2.186
  2.188
  2.188
  2.188
  2.187
  2.188
  2.189
  2.188
  2.189
  2.187
  2.188
  2.188
  2.188
  2.188
  2.188
  2.188
  2.188
  2.188
  2.187
Average production assets, $m
  90
  96
  102
  109
  116
  123
  131
  139
  147
  156
  165
  174
  184
  194
  205
  216
  227
  240
  252
  266
  280
  295
  310
  326
  343
  361
  379
  399
  419
  440
  463
Working capital, $m
  723
  -199
  -213
  -227
  -241
  -257
  -272
  -289
  -306
  -324
  -343
  -362
  -383
  -404
  -426
  -450
  -474
  -499
  -526
  -554
  -583
  -614
  -646
  -679
  -714
  -751
  -790
  -830
  -873
  -917
  -964
Total debt, $m
  0
  -131
  -106
  -81
  -54
  -26
  3
  33
  65
  98
  132
  167
  205
  244
  284
  327
  371
  418
  467
  518
  571
  627
  685
  747
  811
  878
  949
  1,023
  1,101
  1,182
  1,268
Total liabilities, $m
  495
  364
  389
  414
  441
  469
  498
  528
  560
  593
  627
  662
  700
  739
  779
  822
  866
  913
  962
  1,013
  1,066
  1,122
  1,180
  1,242
  1,306
  1,373
  1,444
  1,518
  1,596
  1,677
  1,763
Total equity, $m
  792
  40
  43
  46
  49
  52
  55
  59
  62
  66
  70
  74
  78
  82
  87
  91
  96
  101
  107
  113
  118
  125
  131
  138
  145
  153
  160
  169
  177
  186
  196
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,287
  404
  432
  460
  490
  521
  553
  587
  622
  659
  697
  736
  778
  821
  866
  913
  962
  1,014
  1,069
  1,126
  1,184
  1,247
  1,311
  1,380
  1,451
  1,526
  1,604
  1,687
  1,773
  1,863
  1,959
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  -3.240
  -2.460
  -1.750
  -1.100
  -0.500
  0.060
  0.570
  1.040
  1.480
  1.890
  2.280
  2.630
  2.970
  3.280
  3.580
  3.860
  4.120
  4.370
  4.600
  4.820
  5.030
  5.230
  5.410
  5.590
  5.760
  5.910
  6.070
  6.210
  6.340
  6.470
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.310
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -144
  -71
  -71
  -77
  -83
  -89
  -95
  -102
  -109
  -116
  -124
  -130
  -139
  -147
  -156
  -166
  -176
  -186
  -197
  -209
  -220
  -233
  -246
  -260
  -274
  -289
  -305
  -321
  -339
  -357
  -376
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  43
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  35
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  48
  50
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
  69
  72
  76
  80
  84
  88
  93
Funds from operations, $m
  267
  -50
  -49
  -53
  -58
  -63
  -67
  -73
  -78
  -84
  -89
  -96
  -102
  -109
  -116
  -123
  -130
  -138
  -147
  -155
  -164
  -174
  -184
  -194
  -205
  -217
  -229
  -242
  -255
  -269
  -283
Change in working capital, $m
  92
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -45
  -47
Cash from operations, $m
  175
  -37
  -35
  -39
  -43
  -47
  -52
  -56
  -61
  -66
  -71
  -76
  -82
  -87
  -93
  -100
  -106
  -113
  -120
  -127
  -135
  -143
  -152
  -161
  -170
  -180
  -190
  -201
  -212
  -224
  -237
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -88
New CAPEX, $m
  -61
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -77
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -61
  -63
  -67
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -100
  -105
  -110
Free cash flow, $m
  98
  -61
  -61
  -66
  -72
  -78
  -84
  -90
  -97
  -104
  -111
  -118
  -126
  -134
  -143
  -152
  -161
  -171
  -181
  -191
  -202
  -214
  -226
  -239
  -252
  -266
  -281
  -296
  -313
  -329
  -347
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  -131
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  44
  47
  49
  51
  53
  56
  59
  61
  64
  67
  71
  74
  78
  81
  85
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  14
  228
  74
  79
  85
  92
  98
  105
  112
  120
  128
  134
  143
  152
  161
  171
  181
  191
  203
  214
  226
  239
  252
  266
  281
  297
  313
  330
  347
  366
  385
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  17
  97
  99
  105
  112
  120
  127
  135
  143
  153
  162
  170
  180
  191
  202
  214
  225
  238
  252
  265
  279
  295
  311
  327
  345
  364
  384
  404
  425
  447
  470
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  113
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  45
  47
  49
  51
  52
  54
  56
  59
  62
  64
  67
  71
  74
  77
  81
  85
  89
  93
  98
  102
  107
  112
  118
  124
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -58
  -228
  -74
  -79
  -85
  -92
  -98
  -105
  -112
  -120
  -128
  -134
  -143
  -152
  -161
  -171
  -181
  -191
  -203
  -214
  -226
  -239
  -252
  -266
  -281
  -297
  -313
  -330
  -347
  -366
  -385
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  909
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  717
  -36
  -41
  -45
  -50
  -55
  -60
  -65
  -71
  -77
  -83
  -89
  -95
  -102
  -109
  -116
  -124
  -132
  -140
  -149
  -158
  -168
  -178
  -188
  -199
  -210
  -222
  -235
  -248
  -262
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  688
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -41
  -41
  -41
  -40
  -39
  -38
  -36
  -34
  -32
  -30
  -27
  -24
  -22
  -19
  -16
  -14
  -12
  -10
  -8
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  39.9
  31.7
  25.2
  19.9
  15.8
  12.5
  9.8
  7.7
  6.1
  4.8
  3.8
  3.0
  2.3
  1.8
  1.4
  1.1
  0.9
  0.7
  0.5
  0.4
  0.3
  0.3
  0.2
  0.2
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.0

Tableau Software, Inc. (Tableau) offers software products. The Company's products are used by people of diverse skill levels across all kinds of organizations. The Company's products are used by people of skill levels across all kinds of organizations. Its technologies include visual query language (VizQL) and Hybrid Data Architecture. VizQL unifies the formerly disparate tasks of query and visualization and allows users to transform questions into pictures without the need for software scripts, chart wizards or dialogue boxes. The Company's products include Tableau Desktop, a self-service product for anyone with data; Tableau Server, a business intelligence platform for organizations; Tableau Online, a hosted software-as-a-service (SaaS) version of Tableau Server; Tableau Public, a cloud-based platform for analyzing and sharing public data, and Vizable, an application used to analyze data on a tablet.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Tableau Software (DATA)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -38.1
Price to Sales 6.6
Price to Book 6.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 31.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 48.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 26.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 35.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 27.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -12.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -6.8%
Return On Total Capital -18.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -9.8%
Return On Equity -18.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -9.8%
Asset Turnover 0.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 88%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 89.3%
EBITDA Margin -11.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -3.5%
Operating Margin -16.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -7.7%
Pre-Tax Margin -16.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -7.6%
Net Profit Margin -17.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -9.6%
Effective Tax Rate -5.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -18.5%
Payout Ratio 0%

DATA stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the DATA stock intrinsic value calculation we used $827 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Tableau Software. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Tableau Software. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our DATA stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 7% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for DATA is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Tableau Software, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Tableau Software.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of DATA stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 108%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for DATA stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Tableau Software.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Tableau Software. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the DATA stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for DATA are equal to 10.8%.

Life of production assets of 2.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Tableau Software operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for DATA is equal to -22.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $792 million for Tableau Software - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 79.081 million for Tableau Software is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Tableau Software at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $5.7 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Stocks To Watch: Tableau Software Sees RS Rating Rise To 83   [03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ [$$] Tech Giants' Shadows Fall Over Promising Start-Ups   [Dec-01-17 10:55PM  Barrons.com]
▶ Why Tableau's Stock Has Risen By 40% This Year   [Nov-28-17 01:50PM  Forbes]
▶ Is Tableau Software Inc (DATA) Keeping Up With Its Tech Peers?   [Nov-27-17 10:00AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Tableau Software Inc (DATA): Whats In It For The Shareholders?   [Nov-10-17 03:25PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Medtronic, Tableau, Signet, Ensco & Wynn   [Nov-09-17 01:56PM  CNBC Videos]
▶ Why Tableau Shares Plunged Today   [11:39AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Tableau misses on bottom line   [04:47PM  CNBC Videos]
▶ Tableau reports 3Q loss   [04:39PM  Associated Press]
▶ Is There Now An Opportunity In Tableau Software Inc (DATA)?   [Oct-27-17 03:51PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ 3 Cloud Stocks to Buy Right Now   [Oct-11-17 12:55PM  Zacks]
▶ Whats Installed For Tableau Software Inc (DATA)?   [Sep-28-17 10:35AM  Simply Wall St.]
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Financial statements of DATA
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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