Intrinsic value of Diebold Nixdorf - DBD

Previous Close

$18.25

  Intrinsic Value

$21.32

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

+17%

Previous close

$18.25

 
Intrinsic value

$21.32

 
Up/down potential

+17%

 
Rating

hold

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of DBD stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  37.08
  14.20
  13.28
  12.45
  11.71
  11.04
  10.43
  9.89
  9.40
  8.96
  8.56
  8.21
  7.89
  7.60
  7.34
  7.10
  6.89
  6.70
  6.53
  6.38
  6.24
  6.12
  6.01
  5.91
  5.82
  5.73
  5.66
  5.59
  5.53
  5.48
  5.43
Revenue, $m
  3,316
  3,787
  4,290
  4,824
  5,389
  5,983
  6,608
  7,261
  7,944
  8,655
  9,397
  10,168
  10,970
  11,803
  12,670
  13,570
  14,505
  15,478
  16,489
  17,541
  18,636
  19,777
  20,964
  22,203
  23,494
  24,841
  26,247
  27,715
  29,249
  30,853
  32,529
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  3,682
  4,158
  4,663
  5,197
  5,759
  6,350
  6,968
  7,614
  8,287
  8,988
  9,618
  10,376
  11,165
  11,984
  12,836
  13,720
  14,640
  15,597
  16,592
  17,628
  18,707
  19,830
  21,002
  22,223
  23,497
  24,827
  26,216
  27,667
  29,184
  30,769
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  3,476
  3,682
  4,158
  4,663
  5,197
  5,759
  6,350
  6,968
  7,614
  8,287
  8,988
  9,618
  10,376
  11,165
  11,984
  12,836
  13,720
  14,640
  15,597
  16,592
  17,628
  18,707
  19,830
  21,002
  22,223
  23,497
  24,827
  26,216
  27,667
  29,184
  30,769
Operating income, $m
  -160
  105
  132
  161
  192
  224
  258
  293
  330
  368
  409
  550
  593
  639
  685
  734
  785
  837
  892
  949
  1,008
  1,070
  1,134
  1,201
  1,271
  1,344
  1,420
  1,499
  1,582
  1,669
  1,760
EBITDA, $m
  -25
  289
  328
  369
  412
  457
  505
  555
  607
  661
  718
  777
  838
  902
  968
  1,037
  1,108
  1,183
  1,260
  1,340
  1,424
  1,511
  1,602
  1,697
  1,795
  1,898
  2,006
  2,118
  2,235
  2,358
  2,486
Interest expense (income), $m
  85
  118
  126
  170
  216
  265
  316
  370
  427
  486
  547
  611
  678
  748
  820
  895
  973
  1,054
  1,138
  1,225
  1,316
  1,411
  1,510
  1,613
  1,720
  1,831
  1,948
  2,070
  2,197
  2,330
  2,468
Earnings before tax, $m
  -238
  -13
  6
  -8
  -24
  -41
  -58
  -77
  -97
  -117
  -139
  -61
  -85
  -109
  -134
  -161
  -188
  -216
  -246
  -276
  -308
  -341
  -376
  -411
  -449
  -488
  -528
  -570
  -614
  -661
  -709
Tax expense, $m
  -67
  0
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -33
  -13
  5
  -8
  -24
  -41
  -58
  -77
  -97
  -117
  -139
  -61
  -85
  -109
  -134
  -161
  -188
  -216
  -246
  -276
  -308
  -341
  -376
  -411
  -449
  -488
  -528
  -570
  -614
  -661
  -709

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  717
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  5,270
  5,202
  5,893
  6,626
  7,402
  8,219
  9,076
  9,974
  10,911
  11,889
  12,907
  13,967
  15,068
  16,213
  17,403
  18,640
  19,925
  21,261
  22,650
  24,095
  25,599
  27,166
  28,797
  30,498
  32,272
  34,122
  36,054
  38,071
  40,178
  42,380
  44,683
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  4,553
  5,202
  5,893
  6,626
  7,402
  8,219
  9,076
  9,974
  10,911
  11,889
  12,907
  13,967
  15,068
  16,213
  17,403
  18,640
  19,925
  21,261
  22,650
  24,095
  25,599
  27,166
  28,797
  30,498
  32,272
  34,122
  36,054
  38,071
  40,178
  42,380
  44,683
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.728
  0.728
  0.728
  0.728
  0.728
  0.728
  0.728
  0.728
  0.728
  0.728
  0.728
  0.728
  0.728
  0.728
  0.728
  0.728
  0.728
  0.728
  0.728
  0.728
  0.728
  0.728
  0.728
  0.728
  0.728
  0.728
  0.728
  0.728
  0.728
  0.728
  0.728
Average production assets, $m
  702
  803
  909
  1,023
  1,142
  1,268
  1,401
  1,539
  1,684
  1,835
  1,992
  2,156
  2,326
  2,502
  2,686
  2,877
  3,075
  3,281
  3,496
  3,719
  3,951
  4,193
  4,444
  4,707
  4,981
  5,266
  5,564
  5,876
  6,201
  6,541
  6,896
Working capital, $m
  795
  212
  240
  270
  302
  335
  370
  407
  445
  485
  526
  569
  614
  661
  709
  760
  812
  867
  923
  982
  1,044
  1,107
  1,174
  1,243
  1,316
  1,391
  1,470
  1,552
  1,638
  1,728
  1,822
Total debt, $m
  1,798
  1,801
  2,422
  3,083
  3,781
  4,516
  5,288
  6,096
  6,939
  7,819
  8,736
  9,689
  10,681
  11,711
  12,782
  13,895
  15,051
  16,254
  17,504
  18,805
  20,158
  21,568
  23,037
  24,567
  26,163
  27,829
  29,567
  31,382
  33,279
  35,261
  37,333
Total liabilities, $m
  4,679
  4,682
  5,303
  5,964
  6,662
  7,397
  8,169
  8,977
  9,820
  10,700
  11,617
  12,570
  13,562
  14,592
  15,663
  16,776
  17,932
  19,135
  20,385
  21,686
  23,039
  24,449
  25,918
  27,448
  29,044
  30,710
  32,448
  34,263
  36,160
  38,142
  40,214
Total equity, $m
  591
  520
  589
  663
  740
  822
  908
  997
  1,091
  1,189
  1,291
  1,397
  1,507
  1,621
  1,740
  1,864
  1,992
  2,126
  2,265
  2,410
  2,560
  2,717
  2,880
  3,050
  3,227
  3,412
  3,605
  3,807
  4,018
  4,238
  4,468
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  5,270
  5,202
  5,892
  6,627
  7,402
  8,219
  9,077
  9,974
  10,911
  11,889
  12,908
  13,967
  15,069
  16,213
  17,403
  18,640
  19,924
  21,261
  22,650
  24,096
  25,599
  27,166
  28,798
  30,498
  32,271
  34,122
  36,053
  38,070
  40,178
  42,380
  44,682
Debt-to-equity ratio
  3.042
  3.460
  4.110
  4.650
  5.110
  5.490
  5.830
  6.110
  6.360
  6.580
  6.770
  6.940
  7.090
  7.220
  7.340
  7.450
  7.550
  7.640
  7.730
  7.800
  7.870
  7.940
  8.000
  8.060
  8.110
  8.160
  8.200
  8.240
  8.280
  8.320
  8.360
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.028
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -33
  -13
  5
  -8
  -24
  -41
  -58
  -77
  -97
  -117
  -139
  -61
  -85
  -109
  -134
  -161
  -188
  -216
  -246
  -276
  -308
  -341
  -376
  -411
  -449
  -488
  -528
  -570
  -614
  -661
  -709
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  135
  184
  196
  207
  220
  233
  247
  262
  277
  293
  309
  227
  245
  263
  283
  303
  324
  345
  368
  391
  416
  441
  468
  495
  524
  554
  586
  618
  653
  689
  726
Funds from operations, $m
  177
  171
  200
  199
  196
  193
  189
  185
  180
  176
  171
  165
  160
  154
  148
  142
  136
  129
  122
  115
  108
  100
  92
  84
  76
  67
  58
  48
  38
  28
  17
Change in working capital, $m
  150
  26
  28
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  49
  50
  52
  54
  57
  59
  61
  64
  67
  69
  72
  75
  79
  82
  86
  90
  94
Cash from operations, $m
  27
  145
  172
  169
  164
  159
  154
  148
  142
  136
  129
  122
  115
  108
  100
  92
  83
  75
  66
  56
  46
  36
  26
  15
  3
  -9
  -21
  -34
  -48
  -62
  -77
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -74
  -85
  -96
  -108
  -120
  -134
  -147
  -162
  -177
  -193
  -210
  -227
  -245
  -263
  -283
  -303
  -324
  -345
  -368
  -391
  -416
  -441
  -468
  -495
  -524
  -554
  -586
  -618
  -653
  -689
New CAPEX, $m
  -40
  -101
  -107
  -113
  -120
  -126
  -132
  -139
  -145
  -151
  -157
  -164
  -170
  -177
  -184
  -191
  -198
  -206
  -214
  -223
  -232
  -242
  -252
  -262
  -274
  -286
  -298
  -311
  -325
  -340
  -355
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -561
  -175
  -192
  -209
  -228
  -246
  -266
  -286
  -307
  -328
  -350
  -374
  -397
  -422
  -447
  -474
  -501
  -530
  -559
  -591
  -623
  -658
  -693
  -730
  -769
  -810
  -852
  -897
  -943
  -993
  -1,044
Free cash flow, $m
  -534
  -31
  -19
  -40
  -63
  -87
  -112
  -138
  -165
  -192
  -221
  -251
  -282
  -314
  -347
  -382
  -418
  -455
  -494
  -535
  -577
  -621
  -668
  -716
  -766
  -819
  -874
  -931
  -991
  -1,054
  -1,120
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  997
  110
  622
  660
  698
  735
  772
  808
  844
  880
  916
  953
  991
  1,030
  1,071
  1,113
  1,157
  1,202
  1,250
  1,301
  1,354
  1,410
  1,469
  1,531
  1,596
  1,665
  1,738
  1,815
  1,896
  1,982
  2,072
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -2
  552
  65
  82
  102
  122
  144
  167
  191
  215
  241
  167
  195
  224
  253
  284
  316
  350
  385
  421
  459
  498
  539
  582
  626
  673
  721
  772
  825
  881
  939
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  947
  662
  687
  742
  800
  857
  916
  975
  1,035
  1,095
  1,157
  1,120
  1,186
  1,254
  1,324
  1,397
  1,473
  1,552
  1,635
  1,722
  1,813
  1,908
  2,008
  2,113
  2,222
  2,338
  2,459
  2,587
  2,721
  2,863
  3,011
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  404
  632
  667
  702
  737
  771
  804
  837
  870
  903
  936
  870
  905
  940
  977
  1,015
  1,055
  1,097
  1,141
  1,187
  1,235
  1,286
  1,340
  1,397
  1,456
  1,519
  1,586
  1,656
  1,730
  1,808
  1,891
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -179
  -552
  -69
  -82
  -102
  -122
  -144
  -167
  -191
  -215
  -241
  -167
  -195
  -224
  -253
  -284
  -316
  -350
  -385
  -421
  -459
  -498
  -539
  -582
  -626
  -673
  -721
  -772
  -825
  -881
  -939
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  610
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  689
  598
  621
  635
  648
  660
  670
  679
  688
  695
  703
  710
  717
  724
  731
  739
  747
  756
  766
  777
  788
  801
  815
  830
  847
  865
  884
  905
  928
  952
Discount rate, %
 
  9.40
  9.87
  10.36
  10.88
  11.43
  12.00
  12.60
  13.23
  13.89
  14.58
  15.31
  16.08
  16.88
  17.73
  18.61
  19.54
  20.52
  21.54
  22.62
  23.75
  24.94
  26.19
  27.50
  28.87
  30.32
  31.83
  33.42
  35.09
  36.85
  38.69
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  630
  495
  462
  420
  377
  334
  292
  251
  213
  178
  147
  119
  94
  74
  56
  42
  31
  23
  16
  11
  7
  5
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  47.5
  44.9
  42.1
  39.4
  36.6
  34.0
  31.5
  29.0
  26.7
  25.3
  23.9
  22.5
  21.1
  19.7
  18.4
  17.1
  15.9
  14.8
  13.7
  12.6
  11.6
  10.7
  9.9
  9.1
  8.3
  7.6
  7.0
  6.4
  5.8

Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated provides connected commerce services, software and technology. The Company's geographic segments include North America (NA), Asia Pacific (AP), Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA), and Latin America (LA). These segments sell and service financial self-service (FSS), retail solutions and security systems. The Company is engaged in providing connected commerce solutions to financial institutions. These solutions are supported by a field service organization. The Company provides security solutions, which combine a services portfolio and products to help address its customers' needs. The Company provides services for a portfolio of physical security offerings, in addition to serving as a national locksmith. The Company provides voting machines for official elections and the terminals for the governmental lottery and correspondent bank.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Diebold Nixdorf (DBD)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -41.6
Price to Sales 0.4
Price to Book 2.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 50.8
Price to Free Cash Flow -105.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 37.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -23.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 3.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 7
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 286.1%
Total Debt to Equity 304.2%
Interest Coverage -2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.9%
Return On Total Capital -1.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.2%
Return On Equity -6.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.8%
Asset Turnover 0.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 22.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.4%
EBITDA Margin -0.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.9%
Operating Margin -4.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.2%
Pre-Tax Margin -7.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.1%
Net Profit Margin -1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.1%
Effective Tax Rate 28.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.6%
Payout Ratio -197%

DBD stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the DBD stock intrinsic value calculation we used $3316 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Diebold Nixdorf. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Diebold Nixdorf. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our DBD stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 14.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 9.4%, whose default value for DBD is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Diebold Nixdorf, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Diebold Nixdorf.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of DBD stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 97.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for DBD stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 7% for Diebold Nixdorf.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Diebold Nixdorf. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the DBD stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for DBD are equal to 21.2%.

Life of production assets of 9.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Diebold Nixdorf operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for DBD is equal to 5.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $591 million for Diebold Nixdorf - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 76.453 million for Diebold Nixdorf is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Diebold Nixdorf at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.4 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Stocks That Fell to 3-Year Lows in the Week of Dec. 22   [Dec-22-17 08:07PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ ATM machine-maker Diebold's CEO steps down   [Dec-13-17 09:50AM  Reuters]
▶ Why Diebold Nixdorf Inc. Stock Popped Today   [Nov-16-17 04:49PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Diebold reports 3Q loss   [Oct-31-17 07:29AM  Associated Press]
▶ Diebold Nixdorf Names Watson As Chief Marketing Officer   [Oct-04-17 03:55PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Diebold reports 2Q loss   [Jul-19-17 09:01PM  Associated Press]
▶ Story Stocks from Briefing.com   [12:10PM  Briefing.com]
▶ [$$] Banks rush to bring old-fashioned ATMs into digital age   [Jun-27-17 12:28AM  Financial Times]
▶ [$$] NCR: Profiting From the Amazon Arms Race   [Jun-24-17 12:01AM  Barrons.com]
▶ [$$] Cash's Survival Is Diebold's Opportunity   [Jun-10-17 12:58AM  Barrons.com]
Financial statements of DBD
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