Intrinsic value of Ducommun - DCO

Previous Close

$34.57

  Intrinsic Value

$20.39

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-41%

Previous close

$34.57

 
Intrinsic value

$20.39

 
Up/down potential

-41%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of DCO stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  569
  582
  597
  614
  633
  653
  675
  699
  725
  753
  783
  815
  849
  884
  923
  963
  1,006
  1,051
  1,099
  1,149
  1,203
  1,259
  1,318
  1,381
  1,446
  1,515
  1,588
  1,665
  1,746
  1,830
Variable operating expenses, $m
  539
  551
  565
  580
  597
  615
  635
  657
  681
  706
  710
  738
  769
  802
  836
  873
  912
  953
  996
  1,042
  1,090
  1,141
  1,195
  1,251
  1,311
  1,374
  1,440
  1,509
  1,582
  1,659
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  539
  551
  565
  580
  597
  615
  635
  657
  681
  706
  710
  738
  769
  802
  836
  873
  912
  953
  996
  1,042
  1,090
  1,141
  1,195
  1,251
  1,311
  1,374
  1,440
  1,509
  1,582
  1,659
Operating income, $m
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  45
  47
  73
  76
  79
  83
  86
  90
  94
  98
  103
  108
  113
  118
  123
  129
  135
  142
  149
  156
  163
  171
EBITDA, $m
  85
  87
  90
  92
  95
  98
  101
  105
  109
  113
  117
  122
  127
  133
  138
  144
  151
  158
  165
  172
  180
  189
  198
  207
  217
  227
  238
  250
  262
  274
Interest expense (income), $m
  7
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  45
  47
  50
Earnings before tax, $m
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  55
  57
  60
  62
  64
  67
  69
  72
  75
  79
  82
  85
  89
  93
  97
  102
  106
  111
  116
  122
Tax expense, $m
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  33
Net income, $m
  13
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  22
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  60
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  78
  81
  85
  89

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  578
  591
  606
  623
  642
  663
  686
  710
  736
  765
  795
  827
  861
  898
  937
  978
  1,021
  1,067
  1,116
  1,167
  1,221
  1,278
  1,338
  1,402
  1,468
  1,539
  1,612
  1,690
  1,772
  1,858
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  578
  591
  606
  623
  642
  663
  686
  710
  736
  765
  795
  827
  861
  898
  937
  978
  1,021
  1,067
  1,116
  1,167
  1,221
  1,278
  1,338
  1,402
  1,468
  1,539
  1,612
  1,690
  1,772
  1,858
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.984
  0.985
  0.985
  0.986
  0.986
  0.985
  0.984
  0.985
  0.985
  0.984
  0.985
  0.985
  0.986
  0.984
  0.985
  0.985
  0.985
  0.985
  0.985
  0.985
  0.985
  0.985
  0.985
  0.985
  0.985
  0.984
  0.985
  0.985
  0.985
  0.985
Average production assets, $m
  320
  328
  336
  346
  356
  368
  380
  394
  408
  424
  441
  459
  478
  498
  519
  542
  566
  592
  619
  647
  677
  709
  742
  777
  814
  853
  894
  937
  983
  1,031
Working capital, $m
  72
  73
  75
  77
  80
  82
  85
  88
  91
  95
  99
  103
  107
  111
  116
  121
  127
  132
  138
  145
  152
  159
  166
  174
  182
  191
  200
  210
  220
  231
Total debt, $m
  223
  231
  239
  249
  260
  272
  286
  300
  315
  332
  349
  368
  388
  410
  432
  456
  482
  509
  537
  567
  598
  632
  667
  704
  743
  784
  827
  872
  920
  971
Total liabilities, $m
  337
  345
  354
  364
  375
  387
  400
  415
  430
  447
  464
  483
  503
  524
  547
  571
  596
  623
  652
  682
  713
  746
  782
  819
  857
  899
  942
  987
  1,035
  1,085
Total equity, $m
  240
  246
  252
  259
  267
  276
  285
  295
  306
  318
  331
  344
  358
  374
  390
  407
  425
  444
  464
  485
  508
  532
  557
  583
  611
  640
  671
  703
  737
  773
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  577
  591
  606
  623
  642
  663
  685
  710
  736
  765
  795
  827
  861
  898
  937
  978
  1,021
  1,067
  1,116
  1,167
  1,221
  1,278
  1,339
  1,402
  1,468
  1,539
  1,613
  1,690
  1,772
  1,858
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.930
  0.940
  0.950
  0.960
  0.970
  0.990
  1.000
  1.020
  1.030
  1.040
  1.060
  1.070
  1.080
  1.100
  1.110
  1.120
  1.130
  1.150
  1.160
  1.170
  1.180
  1.190
  1.200
  1.210
  1.220
  1.220
  1.230
  1.240
  1.250
  1.260
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  13
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  22
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  60
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  78
  81
  85
  89
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  55
  56
  57
  58
  59
  60
  61
  63
  64
  66
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  78
  81
  85
  89
  94
  98
  103
Funds from operations, $m
  69
  70
  72
  73
  75
  77
  80
  82
  85
  88
  84
  88
  91
  95
  99
  103
  107
  112
  117
  122
  128
  133
  139
  146
  152
  160
  167
  175
  183
  192
Change in working capital, $m
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
Cash from operations, $m
  67
  68
  70
  71
  73
  75
  77
  79
  82
  84
  81
  84
  87
  90
  94
  98
  102
  106
  111
  116
  121
  126
  132
  138
  144
  151
  158
  165
  173
  181
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -94
  -98
New CAPEX, $m
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -48
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -95
  -100
  -104
  -109
  -115
  -120
  -126
  -132
  -139
  -146
Free cash flow, $m
  29
  29
  29
  28
  28
  28
  28
  28
  28
  28
  22
  22
  22
  22
  23
  23
  24
  24
  25
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  29
  30
  32
  33
  34
  35
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  48
  50
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  48
  50
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  36
  37
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  39
  41
  42
  44
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  58
  60
  63
  66
  68
  71
  75
  78
  82
  85
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -4
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
Cash available for distribution, $m
  32
  31
  31
  31
  31
  31
  31
  32
  32
  32
  27
  27
  28
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
Discount rate, %
  8.00
  8.40
  8.82
  9.26
  9.72
  10.21
  10.72
  11.26
  11.82
  12.41
  13.03
  13.68
  14.37
  15.09
  15.84
  16.63
  17.46
  18.34
  19.25
  20.22
  21.23
  22.29
  23.40
  24.57
  25.80
  27.09
  28.45
  29.87
  31.36
  32.93
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  29
  27
  24
  22
  20
  17
  15
  13
  12
  10
  7
  6
  5
  4
  3
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Ducommun Incorporated is a global provider of engineering and manufacturing services for various products and failure applications used primarily in the aerospace, defense, industrial, natural resources, medical and other industries. The Company is a solution-based provider, offering a range of value-added products and services in its primary businesses of electronics, structures and integrated solutions. The Company operates through two segments: Electronic Systems (ES) and Structural Systems (SS). The ES has over three product offerings in electronics manufacturing for various applications, including complex cable assemblies and interconnect systems, printed circuit board assemblies, and electronic, electromechanical and mechanical assemblies. The SS segment offers over three product offerings to support a customer base, including commercial aircraft, military fixed-wing aircraft, and military and commercial rotary-wing aircraft.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Ducommun (DCO)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 15.5
Price to Sales 0.7
Price to Book 1.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 9
Price to Free Cash Flow 14.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -17.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 6.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 7.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.3
LT Debt to Equity 78.8%
Total Debt to Equity 78.8%
Interest Coverage 6
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.7%
Return On Total Capital 6.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.9%
Return On Equity 12.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -4.4%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 19.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.8%
EBITDA Margin 12.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.1%
Operating Margin 8.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 6.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.9%
Net Profit Margin 4.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.3%
Effective Tax Rate 34.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

DCO stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the DCO stock intrinsic value calculation we used $558 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Ducommun. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Ducommun. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our DCO stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8%, whose default value for DCO is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Ducommun, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Ducommun.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of DCO stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 94.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for DCO stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Ducommun.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Ducommun. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the DCO stock is equal to 0.8%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for DCO are equal to 56.3%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Ducommun operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for DCO is equal to 12.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $236 million for Ducommun - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 11 million for Ducommun is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Ducommun at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.4 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Ducommun Announces Second Quarter Conference Call   [Jul-16-18 07:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Correction: Earns-Ducommun story   [May-21-18 11:50AM  Associated Press]
▶ New Strong Buy Stocks for May 1st   [May-01-18 10:48AM  Zacks]
▶ Ducommun Announces First Quarter Conference Call   [Apr-24-18 07:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Ducommun Acquires Certified Thermoplastics Co., LLC   [Apr-23-18 07:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Ducommun posts 4Q profit   [Feb-28-18 07:43PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Ducommun, Inc. : December 15, 2017   [Dec-15-17 01:11PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Ducommun, Inc. : November 27, 2017   [Nov-27-17 01:05PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Ducommun, Inc. : November 17, 2017   [Nov-17-17 11:42AM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Ducommun, Inc. : November 7, 2017   [Nov-07-17 10:07AM  Capital Cube]
▶ Ducommun posts 3Q profit   [05:47AM  Associated Press]
▶ Ducommun Closes on Strategic Acquisition   [Sep-11-17 04:15PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Ducommun, Inc. : September 1, 2017   [Sep-01-17 07:32PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Ducommun posts 2Q profit   [Aug-05-17 01:10AM  Associated Press]
▶ Ducommun Announces Upcoming Investor Events   [Jul-26-17 07:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Ducommun, Inc. : July 24, 2017   [Jul-24-17 03:19PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Ducommun Announces Second Quarter Conference Call   [Jul-21-17 07:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Ducommun, Inc. : July 14, 2017   [Jul-14-17 01:53PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Ducommun, Inc. : June 2, 2017   [Jun-02-17 02:01PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Ducommun, Inc. : May 22, 2017   [May-22-17 01:33PM  Capital Cube]
▶ The Market In 5 Minutes   [May-05-17 09:02AM  Benzinga]
▶ Ducommun misses 1Q profit forecasts   [05:02AM  Associated Press]
▶ The Best Aerospace Stocks to Buy in 2017   [Apr-24-17 11:03AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Ducommun, Inc. Value Analysis (NYSE:DCO) : April 13, 2017   [Apr-13-17 12:49PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Should You Get Rid of Ducommun (DCO) Now?   [Apr-05-17 08:45AM  Zacks]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for April 4th   [Apr-04-17 10:34AM  Zacks]
▶ Ducommun beats Street 4Q forecasts   [05:02PM  Associated Press]
▶ Ducommun Announces Fourth Quarter Conference Call   [Feb-16-17 07:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Ducommun Wins Additional Work from Airbus for A320neo   [Jan-25-17 07:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
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