Intrinsic value of Deckers Outdoor - DECK

Previous Close

$118.87

  Intrinsic Value

$37.97

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-68%

Previous close

$118.87

 
Intrinsic value

$37.97

 
Up/down potential

-68%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of DECK stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  1,826
  1,868
  1,916
  1,970
  2,029
  2,095
  2,166
  2,243
  2,327
  2,416
  2,512
  2,613
  2,722
  2,837
  2,960
  3,089
  3,227
  3,372
  3,525
  3,687
  3,858
  4,038
  4,228
  4,429
  4,639
  4,861
  5,095
  5,341
  5,600
  5,872
Variable operating expenses, $m
  1,667
  1,705
  1,749
  1,798
  1,852
  1,911
  1,976
  2,046
  2,122
  2,203
  2,282
  2,375
  2,473
  2,578
  2,689
  2,807
  2,932
  3,064
  3,203
  3,350
  3,506
  3,669
  3,842
  4,024
  4,215
  4,417
  4,629
  4,853
  5,088
  5,335
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,667
  1,705
  1,749
  1,798
  1,852
  1,911
  1,976
  2,046
  2,122
  2,203
  2,282
  2,375
  2,473
  2,578
  2,689
  2,807
  2,932
  3,064
  3,203
  3,350
  3,506
  3,669
  3,842
  4,024
  4,215
  4,417
  4,629
  4,853
  5,088
  5,335
Operating income, $m
  159
  163
  167
  172
  178
  184
  190
  197
  205
  213
  230
  239
  249
  259
  271
  282
  295
  308
  322
  337
  353
  369
  387
  405
  424
  444
  466
  488
  512
  537
EBITDA, $m
  205
  210
  215
  221
  228
  235
  244
  252
  262
  272
  282
  294
  306
  319
  333
  347
  363
  379
  396
  415
  434
  454
  475
  498
  522
  546
  573
  600
  629
  660
Interest expense (income), $m
  5
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  13
  14
  16
  17
  19
  21
  22
  24
  27
  29
  31
  34
  36
  39
  42
  45
  48
  52
  55
  59
Earnings before tax, $m
  155
  159
  163
  167
  171
  177
  182
  188
  195
  202
  217
  225
  233
  242
  252
  262
  272
  284
  296
  308
  321
  335
  350
  366
  382
  399
  417
  437
  457
  478
Tax expense, $m
  42
  43
  44
  45
  46
  48
  49
  51
  53
  54
  59
  61
  63
  65
  68
  71
  74
  77
  80
  83
  87
  91
  95
  99
  103
  108
  113
  118
  123
  129
Net income, $m
  113
  116
  119
  122
  125
  129
  133
  137
  142
  147
  158
  164
  170
  177
  184
  191
  199
  207
  216
  225
  235
  245
  256
  267
  279
  292
  305
  319
  333
  349

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,080
  1,105
  1,134
  1,165
  1,201
  1,240
  1,282
  1,328
  1,377
  1,430
  1,486
  1,546
  1,611
  1,679
  1,751
  1,828
  1,909
  1,995
  2,086
  2,182
  2,283
  2,390
  2,502
  2,620
  2,745
  2,877
  3,015
  3,160
  3,313
  3,474
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,080
  1,105
  1,134
  1,165
  1,201
  1,240
  1,282
  1,328
  1,377
  1,430
  1,486
  1,546
  1,611
  1,679
  1,751
  1,828
  1,909
  1,995
  2,086
  2,182
  2,283
  2,390
  2,502
  2,620
  2,745
  2,877
  3,015
  3,160
  3,313
  3,474
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.691
  1.690
  1.690
  1.691
  1.689
  1.690
  1.690
  1.689
  1.690
  1.690
  1.690
  1.690
  1.690
  1.690
  1.690
  1.690
  1.690
  1.690
  1.690
  1.690
  1.690
  1.690
  1.690
  1.690
  1.690
  1.690
  1.690
  1.690
  1.690
  1.690
Average production assets, $m
  383
  392
  402
  414
  426
  440
  455
  471
  489
  507
  527
  549
  572
  596
  622
  649
  678
  708
  740
  774
  810
  848
  888
  930
  974
  1,021
  1,070
  1,122
  1,176
  1,233
Working capital, $m
  206
  211
  216
  223
  229
  237
  245
  254
  263
  273
  284
  295
  308
  321
  334
  349
  365
  381
  398
  417
  436
  456
  478
  500
  524
  549
  576
  604
  633
  664
Total debt, $m
  37
  42
  49
  56
  64
  73
  82
  92
  103
  115
  128
  141
  156
  171
  187
  204
  223
  242
  262
  284
  306
  330
  355
  382
  410
  439
  470
  503
  537
  573
Total liabilities, $m
  242
  248
  254
  261
  269
  278
  287
  297
  308
  320
  333
  346
  361
  376
  392
  409
  428
  447
  467
  489
  511
  535
  560
  587
  615
  644
  675
  708
  742
  778
Total equity, $m
  838
  858
  880
  904
  932
  962
  995
  1,030
  1,068
  1,109
  1,153
  1,200
  1,250
  1,303
  1,359
  1,419
  1,482
  1,548
  1,619
  1,693
  1,772
  1,854
  1,942
  2,034
  2,130
  2,232
  2,340
  2,452
  2,571
  2,696
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,080
  1,106
  1,134
  1,165
  1,201
  1,240
  1,282
  1,327
  1,376
  1,429
  1,486
  1,546
  1,611
  1,679
  1,751
  1,828
  1,910
  1,995
  2,086
  2,182
  2,283
  2,389
  2,502
  2,621
  2,745
  2,876
  3,015
  3,160
  3,313
  3,474
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.040
  0.050
  0.060
  0.060
  0.070
  0.080
  0.080
  0.090
  0.100
  0.100
  0.110
  0.120
  0.120
  0.130
  0.140
  0.140
  0.150
  0.160
  0.160
  0.170
  0.170
  0.180
  0.180
  0.190
  0.190
  0.200
  0.200
  0.210
  0.210
  0.210
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.776
  0.776
  0.776
  0.776
  0.776
  0.776
  0.776
  0.776
  0.776
  0.776
  0.776
  0.776
  0.776
  0.776
  0.776
  0.776
  0.776
  0.776
  0.776
  0.776
  0.776
  0.776
  0.776
  0.776
  0.776
  0.776
  0.776
  0.776
  0.776
  0.776

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  113
  116
  119
  122
  125
  129
  133
  137
  142
  147
  158
  164
  170
  177
  184
  191
  199
  207
  216
  225
  235
  245
  256
  267
  279
  292
  305
  319
  333
  349
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  46
  47
  48
  49
  51
  52
  53
  55
  57
  59
  53
  55
  57
  60
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  77
  81
  85
  89
  93
  97
  102
  107
  112
  118
  123
Funds from operations, $m
  160
  163
  167
  171
  176
  181
  186
  192
  199
  206
  211
  219
  227
  236
  246
  256
  267
  278
  290
  302
  316
  330
  344
  360
  376
  394
  412
  431
  451
  472
Change in working capital, $m
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
Cash from operations, $m
  156
  158
  161
  165
  169
  173
  178
  184
  189
  196
  200
  208
  215
  223
  232
  241
  251
  262
  273
  284
  296
  309
  323
  337
  353
  369
  385
  403
  422
  441
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -38
  -38
  -39
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -44
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -102
  -107
  -112
  -118
New CAPEX, $m
  -7
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -81
  -86
  -89
  -94
  -98
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -119
  -125
  -131
  -137
  -144
  -151
  -159
  -166
  -175
Free cash flow, $m
  111
  111
  112
  113
  115
  117
  119
  122
  125
  128
  130
  133
  138
  142
  147
  152
  157
  163
  170
  176
  183
  190
  198
  207
  215
  224
  234
  244
  255
  267
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  31
  33
  34
  36
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  31
  33
  34
  36
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  116
  117
  118
  121
  123
  126
  129
  132
  136
  140
  142
  147
  152
  157
  163
  169
  176
  183
  190
  198
  206
  214
  223
  233
  243
  254
  265
  277
  289
  303
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -17
  -19
  -22
  -25
  -27
  -30
  -33
  -35
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -83
  -87
  -92
  -97
  -102
  -107
  -113
  -119
  -125
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  132
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
Cash available for distribution, $m
  231
  97
  96
  96
  96
  96
  96
  97
  98
  99
  98
  100
  102
  104
  107
  110
  113
  116
  119
  123
  127
  132
  136
  141
  146
  152
  158
  164
  171
  178
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  222
  89
  84
  79
  74
  69
  65
  60
  56
  52
  47
  43
  39
  35
  31
  28
  25
  21
  18
  16
  13
  11
  9
  7
  6
  4
  3
  3
  2
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Deckers Outdoor Corporation is engaged in designing, marketing and distributing footwear, apparel and accessories for both everyday casual lifestyle use and high performance activities. The Company's segments include operations of its brands, such as UGG, Teva, Sanuk and other brands; wholesale divisions, and Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) business, which includes E-Commerce business and retail store business. The Company sells accessories, such as handbags and loungewear, through domestic and international retailers, international distributors and directly to end user consumers both domestically and internationally, through its Websites, call centers and retail stores. The Company markets its products primarily under three brands: UGG, Teva and Sanuk. The Company's other brands include Hoka One One (Hoka), Ahnu and Koolaburra by UGG (Koolaburra). It has a total of over 150 retail stores across the world.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Deckers Outdoor (DECK)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 633.8
Price to Sales 2.1
Price to Book 4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 19.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 24.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -4.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -35.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -15.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 292
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 3.4%
Total Debt to Equity 3.5%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.4%
Return On Total Capital 0.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.9%
Return On Equity 0.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.4%
Asset Turnover 1.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 46.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 46.7%
EBITDA Margin 2.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.7%
Operating Margin -0.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7%
Pre-Tax Margin -0.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.7%
Net Profit Margin 0.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.3%
Effective Tax Rate 185.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 78.2%
Payout Ratio 0%

DECK stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the DECK stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1790 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Deckers Outdoor. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Deckers Outdoor. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our DECK stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for DECK is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Deckers Outdoor, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Deckers Outdoor.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of DECK stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 91.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for DECK stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 11% for Deckers Outdoor.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Deckers Outdoor. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the DECK stock is equal to 0.3%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for DECK are equal to 21%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Deckers Outdoor operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for DECK is equal to 11.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $954 million for Deckers Outdoor - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 32 million for Deckers Outdoor is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Deckers Outdoor at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.8 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ UGG Collective Launches For Autumn/Winter 2018   [Jul-18-18 09:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ When To Sell Stocks: Big Break Below 50-Day Line Can Mark End Of A Huge Run   [Jun-11-18 06:30PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Company News For May 29, 2018   [May-29-18 10:21AM  Zacks]
▶ Deckers posts big earnings beat   [04:28PM  CNBC Videos]
▶ Deckers: Fiscal 4Q Earnings Snapshot   [04:23PM  Associated Press]
▶ Deckers Outdoor Earnings Preview   [07:51AM  Benzinga]
▶ Deckers Earnings: Down-at-the-Heels Stock?   [May-23-18 10:51AM  Barrons.com]
▶ Stocks Avoid Trouble, Rise A Bit; Ugg Maker Near Entry; Is $90 Oil Likely?   [May-16-18 12:05PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Uggs Maker Deckers May Have Run Its Course   [Apr-18-18 04:09PM  Barrons.com]
▶ UGG Hosts Kick-Off Brunch for Festival Season   [Apr-14-18 12:20AM  Business Wire]
▶ Nike Scores On China's Basketball Boom, But Competition Rises At Home   [Apr-05-18 11:56AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ What Happened in the Stock Market Today   [Mar-12-18 05:18PM  Motley Fool]
▶ The Afternoon Rundown: March 22, 2018   [02:22PM  CNBC Videos]
▶ UGG Celebrates International Womens Day with HERproject   [Mar-08-18 01:10PM  Business Wire]
▶ Birkenstock Seller Files for Bankruptcy, Blames UGGs   [Mar-06-18 08:21AM  Bloomberg]
▶ Bull of the Day: Deckers (DECK)   [06:31AM  Zacks]
▶ Deckers Surprises With a Big Profit Bump   [07:29AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Deckers beats Street 3Q forecasts   [04:23PM  Associated Press]
▶ UGG Collective Launches for Spring/Summer 2018   [Jan-23-18 09:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ GARP Strategy Update 16.5% Total Return In 4 Months   [Jan-08-18 02:59PM  Harvest Exchange]
▶ HOKA ONE ONE Elite Team Adds Seven Athletes   [09:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Market Open: January 02, 2018   [10:21AM  CNBC Videos]
▶ This Hedge-Fund Activist Might Be Better Off Passive   [Dec-19-17 05:00AM  Bloomberg]
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