Intrinsic value of Denny's - DENN

Previous Close

$16.84

  Intrinsic Value

$3.79

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-78%

Previous close

$16.84

 
Intrinsic value

$3.79

 
Up/down potential

-78%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of DENN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  18.00
  16.70
  15.53
  14.48
  13.53
  12.68
  11.91
  11.22
  10.60
  10.04
  9.53
  9.08
  8.67
  8.30
  7.97
  7.68
  7.41
  7.17
  6.95
  6.76
  6.58
  6.42
  6.28
  6.15
  6.04
  5.93
  5.84
  5.76
  5.68
  5.61
Revenue, $m
  624
  729
  842
  964
  1,094
  1,233
  1,380
  1,534
  1,697
  1,867
  2,045
  2,231
  2,424
  2,626
  2,835
  3,053
  3,279
  3,514
  3,758
  4,012
  4,276
  4,551
  4,837
  5,134
  5,444
  5,767
  6,104
  6,455
  6,822
  7,205
Variable operating expenses, $m
  565
  657
  758
  866
  982
  1,105
  1,236
  1,374
  1,518
  1,670
  1,818
  1,983
  2,155
  2,334
  2,520
  2,714
  2,915
  3,124
  3,341
  3,567
  3,802
  4,046
  4,300
  4,564
  4,840
  5,127
  5,426
  5,739
  6,065
  6,405
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  565
  657
  758
  866
  982
  1,105
  1,236
  1,374
  1,518
  1,670
  1,818
  1,983
  2,155
  2,334
  2,520
  2,714
  2,915
  3,124
  3,341
  3,567
  3,802
  4,046
  4,300
  4,564
  4,840
  5,127
  5,426
  5,739
  6,065
  6,405
Operating income, $m
  60
  71
  84
  97
  112
  127
  144
  161
  179
  198
  227
  248
  269
  292
  315
  339
  364
  390
  417
  445
  475
  505
  537
  570
  604
  640
  678
  717
  757
  800
EBITDA, $m
  92
  107
  123
  141
  160
  181
  202
  225
  249
  274
  300
  327
  355
  385
  416
  448
  481
  515
  551
  588
  627
  667
  709
  753
  798
  845
  895
  946
  1,000
  1,056
Interest expense (income), $m
  3
  17
  12
  16
  19
  23
  27
  32
  36
  41
  47
  52
  58
  64
  70
  76
  83
  90
  97
  105
  112
  121
  129
  138
  147
  156
  166
  177
  187
  199
  210
Earnings before tax, $m
  43
  59
  68
  78
  89
  100
  112
  124
  138
  151
  175
  190
  206
  222
  239
  256
  274
  293
  313
  333
  354
  376
  399
  423
  448
  474
  501
  529
  559
  590
Tax expense, $m
  12
  16
  18
  21
  24
  27
  30
  34
  37
  41
  47
  51
  55
  60
  64
  69
  74
  79
  84
  90
  96
  102
  108
  114
  121
  128
  135
  143
  151
  159
Net income, $m
  31
  43
  50
  57
  65
  73
  82
  91
  100
  110
  128
  139
  150
  162
  174
  187
  200
  214
  228
  243
  259
  275
  291
  309
  327
  346
  366
  386
  408
  430

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  382
  446
  515
  590
  670
  754
  844
  939
  1,039
  1,143
  1,252
  1,365
  1,484
  1,607
  1,735
  1,868
  2,007
  2,151
  2,300
  2,455
  2,617
  2,785
  2,960
  3,142
  3,332
  3,530
  3,736
  3,951
  4,175
  4,409
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  382
  446
  515
  590
  670
  754
  844
  939
  1,039
  1,143
  1,252
  1,365
  1,484
  1,607
  1,735
  1,868
  2,007
  2,151
  2,300
  2,455
  2,617
  2,785
  2,960
  3,142
  3,332
  3,530
  3,736
  3,951
  4,175
  4,409
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.634
  1.635
  1.635
  1.634
  1.633
  1.635
  1.635
  1.634
  1.633
  1.633
  1.633
  1.634
  1.633
  1.634
  1.634
  1.634
  1.634
  1.634
  1.634
  1.634
  1.634
  1.634
  1.634
  1.634
  1.634
  1.634
  1.634
  1.634
  1.634
  1.634
Average production assets, $m
  215
  251
  290
  332
  377
  425
  476
  529
  585
  644
  706
  770
  836
  906
  978
  1,053
  1,131
  1,212
  1,297
  1,384
  1,475
  1,570
  1,669
  1,771
  1,878
  1,990
  2,106
  2,227
  2,354
  2,486
Working capital, $m
  -66
  -77
  -88
  -101
  -115
  -129
  -145
  -161
  -178
  -196
  -215
  -234
  -255
  -276
  -298
  -321
  -344
  -369
  -395
  -421
  -449
  -478
  -508
  -539
  -572
  -606
  -641
  -678
  -716
  -757
Total debt, $m
  212
  269
  332
  399
  471
  547
  628
  713
  803
  897
  995
  1,097
  1,203
  1,314
  1,430
  1,550
  1,674
  1,804
  1,938
  2,078
  2,223
  2,375
  2,532
  2,696
  2,867
  3,045
  3,230
  3,424
  3,626
  3,837
Total liabilities, $m
  344
  401
  464
  531
  603
  679
  760
  845
  935
  1,029
  1,127
  1,229
  1,335
  1,446
  1,562
  1,681
  1,806
  1,936
  2,070
  2,210
  2,355
  2,507
  2,664
  2,828
  2,999
  3,177
  3,362
  3,556
  3,758
  3,968
Total equity, $m
  38
  45
  52
  59
  67
  75
  84
  94
  104
  114
  125
  137
  148
  161
  174
  187
  201
  215
  230
  246
  262
  279
  296
  314
  333
  353
  374
  395
  418
  441
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  382
  446
  516
  590
  670
  754
  844
  939
  1,039
  1,143
  1,252
  1,366
  1,483
  1,607
  1,736
  1,868
  2,007
  2,151
  2,300
  2,456
  2,617
  2,786
  2,960
  3,142
  3,332
  3,530
  3,736
  3,951
  4,176
  4,409
Debt-to-equity ratio
  5.550
  6.040
  6.440
  6.760
  7.030
  7.250
  7.440
  7.600
  7.730
  7.850
  7.950
  8.030
  8.110
  8.180
  8.240
  8.290
  8.340
  8.390
  8.430
  8.460
  8.500
  8.530
  8.550
  8.580
  8.600
  8.630
  8.650
  8.670
  8.680
  8.700
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  31
  43
  50
  57
  65
  73
  82
  91
  100
  110
  128
  139
  150
  162
  174
  187
  200
  214
  228
  243
  259
  275
  291
  309
  327
  346
  366
  386
  408
  430
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  32
  35
  39
  44
  48
  53
  59
  64
  70
  76
  73
  79
  86
  93
  101
  109
  117
  125
  134
  143
  152
  162
  172
  183
  194
  205
  217
  230
  243
  256
Funds from operations, $m
  63
  79
  89
  101
  113
  126
  140
  155
  170
  186
  201
  218
  236
  255
  275
  295
  317
  339
  362
  386
  411
  437
  463
  492
  521
  551
  583
  616
  651
  687
Change in working capital, $m
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -40
Cash from operations, $m
  73
  90
  101
  114
  127
  141
  156
  171
  187
  204
  219
  238
  257
  276
  297
  318
  341
  364
  388
  412
  438
  465
  493
  523
  553
  585
  618
  653
  689
  727
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -19
  -22
  -26
  -30
  -34
  -39
  -44
  -49
  -55
  -60
  -66
  -73
  -79
  -86
  -93
  -101
  -109
  -117
  -125
  -134
  -143
  -152
  -162
  -172
  -183
  -194
  -205
  -217
  -230
  -243
New CAPEX, $m
  -33
  -36
  -39
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -84
  -88
  -91
  -95
  -99
  -103
  -107
  -111
  -116
  -121
  -127
  -132
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -52
  -58
  -65
  -72
  -79
  -87
  -95
  -102
  -111
  -119
  -127
  -137
  -146
  -155
  -165
  -176
  -187
  -198
  -209
  -222
  -234
  -247
  -261
  -275
  -290
  -305
  -321
  -338
  -357
  -375
Free cash flow, $m
  22
  31
  36
  42
  48
  54
  61
  69
  77
  85
  91
  101
  111
  121
  131
  142
  154
  166
  178
  191
  205
  219
  233
  248
  264
  280
  297
  315
  333
  352
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -77
  57
  62
  67
  72
  76
  81
  85
  90
  94
  98
  102
  107
  111
  115
  120
  125
  129
  135
  140
  145
  151
  157
  164
  171
  178
  186
  194
  202
  211
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  104
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  27
  57
  62
  67
  72
  76
  81
  85
  90
  94
  98
  102
  107
  111
  115
  120
  125
  129
  135
  140
  145
  151
  157
  164
  171
  178
  186
  194
  202
  211
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  49
  89
  99
  109
  120
  131
  142
  154
  166
  179
  189
  203
  217
  232
  247
  262
  278
  295
  313
  331
  350
  370
  390
  412
  434
  458
  482
  508
  535
  563
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -136
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -23
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -87
  82
  92
  101
  112
  122
  133
  144
  156
  168
  179
  192
  205
  219
  234
  249
  265
  281
  298
  316
  334
  353
  373
  394
  415
  438
  462
  487
  513
  540
Discount rate, %
  12.00
  12.60
  13.23
  13.89
  14.59
  15.32
  16.08
  16.89
  17.73
  18.62
  19.55
  20.52
  21.55
  22.63
  23.76
  24.95
  26.19
  27.50
  28.88
  30.32
  31.84
  33.43
  35.10
  36.86
  38.70
  40.64
  42.67
  44.80
  47.04
  49.39
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -78
  65
  63
  60
  56
  52
  47
  41
  36
  31
  25
  20
  16
  13
  10
  7
  5
  4
  2
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0

Denny's Corporation (Denny's) operates a franchised full-service restaurant chain. The Company, through its subsidiary, Denny's, Inc., owns and operates the Denny's brand. As of December 28, 2016, the Denny's brand consisted of 1,733 franchised, licensed and Company-operated restaurants around the world, including 1,610 restaurants in the United States and 123 international locations. As of December 28, 2016, 1,564 of its restaurants were franchised or licensed and 169 were Company-operated. In addition to its breakfast-all-day items, Denny's offers a selection of lunch and dinner items, including burgers, sandwiches, salads and skillet entrees, along with an assortment of beverages, appetizers and desserts. The Company's Fit Fare menu helps its guests identify items suited to their dietary needs. Most Denny's restaurants offer special items for children and seniors. The Company has restaurant locations within travel centers, primarily with Pilot and Pilot Flying J Travel Centers.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Denny's (DENN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 63.2
Price to Sales 2.4
Price to Book -16.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 16.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 23.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 3.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -25.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 3.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity -342.3%
Total Debt to Equity -346.5%
Interest Coverage 13
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 6.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.8%
Return On Total Capital 11.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.9%
Return On Equity -28.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 169.7%
Asset Turnover 1.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 48.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 48%
EBITDA Margin 12%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.7%
Operating Margin 9.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 7.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.5%
Net Profit Margin 3.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6%
Effective Tax Rate 47.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.7%
Payout Ratio 0%

DENN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the DENN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $529.169 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Denny's. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Denny's. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our DENN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 18% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 12%, whose default value for DENN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Denny's, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Denny's.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of DENN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 90.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for DENN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.8% for Denny's.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Denny's. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the DENN stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for DENN are equal to 34.5%.

Life of production assets of 9.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Denny's operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for DENN is equal to -10.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-97.36 million for Denny's - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 63.386 million for Denny's is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Denny's at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Why Denny's Corp Stock Soared Today   [Oct-31-18 07:17PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Denny's: 3Q Earnings Snapshot   [06:36PM  Associated Press]
▶ Denny's Q3 Earnings Preview   [07:36AM  Benzinga]
▶ Whats Ahead For Dennys Corporation (NASDAQ:DENN)?   [Sep-12-18 10:06AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ National Waffle Day 2018: Where Are the Deals?   [Aug-24-18 11:23AM  InvestorPlace]
▶ Denny's shares slide after revenue miss   [Jul-31-18 12:38PM  MarketWatch]
▶ Denny's (DENN) Q2 Earnings Beat Estimates   [Jul-30-18 06:50PM  Zacks]
▶ Denny's: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [05:44PM  Associated Press]
▶ Top 10 Stocks Under $20   [Jul-25-18 03:43PM  Zacks]
▶ Should You Buy Dennys Corporation (NASDAQ:DENN)?   [Jun-12-18 12:44PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Restaurant Stocks Delivering the Gains   [02:25PM  Investopedia]
▶ Denny's: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-01-18 05:50PM  Associated Press]
▶ Alexa, Order Me Pancakes at Denny's   [Mar-14-18 09:35PM  Bloomberg]
▶ Denny's posts 4Q profit   [06:17PM  Associated Press]
▶ Denny's Earnings Preview   [11:25AM  Benzinga]
▶ Denny's: Cramer's Top Takeaways   [Jan-12-18 06:43AM  TheStreet.com]
▶ Cramer Remix: Why Boeing is a better bet than bitcoin   [Jan-11-18 07:04PM  CNBC Videos]
▶ When Should You Buy Dennys Corporation (NASDAQ:DENN)?   [Dec-19-17 09:55AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Dennys Corp. : December 15, 2017   [Dec-15-17 01:11PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Dennys Corp. : November 27, 2017   [Nov-27-17 01:06PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Dennys Opens First Restaurant in Guatemala   [Nov-20-17 08:30AM  Business Wire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Dennys Corp. : November 7, 2017   [Nov-07-17 10:07AM  Capital Cube]
▶ Denny's posts 3Q profit   [Nov-01-17 06:40PM  Associated Press]

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