Intrinsic value of Dean Foods - DF

Previous Close

$6.01

  Intrinsic Value

$14.84

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+147%

Previous close

$6.01

 
Intrinsic value

$14.84

 
Up/down potential

+147%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of DF stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  7,951
  8,134
  8,343
  8,578
  8,838
  9,123
  9,434
  9,770
  10,132
  10,521
  10,937
  11,381
  11,854
  12,356
  12,889
  13,454
  14,052
  14,684
  15,352
  16,057
  16,802
  17,587
  18,414
  19,286
  20,204
  21,170
  22,188
  23,259
  24,385
  25,570
Variable operating expenses, $m
  7,680
  7,856
  8,057
  8,282
  8,532
  8,806
  9,105
  9,428
  9,776
  10,150
  10,512
  10,939
  11,393
  11,876
  12,388
  12,931
  13,505
  14,113
  14,755
  15,433
  16,149
  16,903
  17,698
  18,536
  19,419
  20,348
  21,326
  22,355
  23,437
  24,576
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  7,680
  7,856
  8,057
  8,282
  8,532
  8,806
  9,105
  9,428
  9,776
  10,150
  10,512
  10,939
  11,393
  11,876
  12,388
  12,931
  13,505
  14,113
  14,755
  15,433
  16,149
  16,903
  17,698
  18,536
  19,419
  20,348
  21,326
  22,355
  23,437
  24,576
Operating income, $m
  271
  278
  286
  295
  306
  317
  329
  342
  356
  371
  425
  442
  461
  480
  501
  523
  546
  571
  597
  624
  653
  683
  716
  750
  785
  823
  862
  904
  948
  994
EBITDA, $m
  462
  472
  484
  498
  513
  530
  548
  567
  588
  611
  635
  661
  688
  717
  748
  781
  816
  853
  891
  932
  976
  1,021
  1,069
  1,120
  1,173
  1,229
  1,288
  1,351
  1,416
  1,485
Interest expense (income), $m
  61
  66
  68
  72
  75
  79
  84
  88
  94
  99
  106
  112
  119
  127
  135
  144
  153
  162
  173
  183
  195
  207
  219
  233
  247
  262
  278
  294
  311
  330
  349
Earnings before tax, $m
  205
  210
  215
  220
  226
  233
  240
  248
  256
  265
  313
  323
  334
  345
  357
  370
  384
  398
  413
  429
  446
  464
  483
  503
  523
  545
  568
  592
  618
  645
Tax expense, $m
  55
  57
  58
  59
  61
  63
  65
  67
  69
  72
  84
  87
  90
  93
  96
  100
  104
  107
  112
  116
  120
  125
  130
  136
  141
  147
  153
  160
  167
  174
Net income, $m
  150
  153
  157
  161
  165
  170
  175
  181
  187
  194
  228
  236
  244
  252
  261
  270
  280
  291
  302
  313
  326
  339
  352
  367
  382
  398
  415
  433
  451
  471

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,554
  2,613
  2,680
  2,755
  2,839
  2,931
  3,030
  3,138
  3,255
  3,380
  3,513
  3,656
  3,808
  3,969
  4,140
  4,322
  4,514
  4,717
  4,932
  5,158
  5,397
  5,649
  5,915
  6,195
  6,490
  6,801
  7,128
  7,471
  7,833
  8,214
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,554
  2,613
  2,680
  2,755
  2,839
  2,931
  3,030
  3,138
  3,255
  3,380
  3,513
  3,656
  3,808
  3,969
  4,140
  4,322
  4,514
  4,717
  4,932
  5,158
  5,397
  5,649
  5,915
  6,195
  6,490
  6,801
  7,128
  7,471
  7,833
  8,214
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  3.113
  3.113
  3.113
  3.114
  3.113
  3.113
  3.114
  3.113
  3.113
  3.113
  3.113
  3.113
  3.113
  3.113
  3.113
  3.113
  3.113
  3.113
  3.113
  3.113
  3.113
  3.113
  3.113
  3.113
  3.113
  3.113
  3.113
  3.113
  3.113
  3.113
Average production assets, $m
  1,344
  1,375
  1,410
  1,450
  1,494
  1,542
  1,594
  1,651
  1,712
  1,778
  1,848
  1,923
  2,003
  2,088
  2,178
  2,274
  2,375
  2,482
  2,594
  2,714
  2,839
  2,972
  3,112
  3,259
  3,414
  3,578
  3,750
  3,931
  4,121
  4,321
Working capital, $m
  342
  350
  359
  369
  380
  392
  406
  420
  436
  452
  470
  489
  510
  531
  554
  579
  604
  631
  660
  690
  722
  756
  792
  829
  869
  910
  954
  1,000
  1,049
  1,100
Total debt, $m
  950
  994
  1,043
  1,099
  1,160
  1,228
  1,302
  1,381
  1,467
  1,560
  1,658
  1,763
  1,875
  1,995
  2,121
  2,255
  2,397
  2,546
  2,705
  2,872
  3,048
  3,235
  3,431
  3,637
  3,855
  4,084
  4,325
  4,579
  4,846
  5,127
Total liabilities, $m
  1,885
  1,928
  1,978
  2,033
  2,095
  2,163
  2,236
  2,316
  2,402
  2,494
  2,593
  2,698
  2,810
  2,929
  3,056
  3,189
  3,331
  3,481
  3,639
  3,807
  3,983
  4,169
  4,365
  4,572
  4,790
  5,019
  5,260
  5,514
  5,781
  6,062
Total equity, $m
  669
  685
  702
  722
  744
  768
  794
  822
  853
  885
  920
  958
  998
  1,040
  1,085
  1,132
  1,183
  1,236
  1,292
  1,351
  1,414
  1,480
  1,550
  1,623
  1,700
  1,782
  1,867
  1,958
  2,052
  2,152
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,554
  2,613
  2,680
  2,755
  2,839
  2,931
  3,030
  3,138
  3,255
  3,379
  3,513
  3,656
  3,808
  3,969
  4,141
  4,321
  4,514
  4,717
  4,931
  5,158
  5,397
  5,649
  5,915
  6,195
  6,490
  6,801
  7,127
  7,472
  7,833
  8,214
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.420
  1.450
  1.490
  1.520
  1.560
  1.600
  1.640
  1.680
  1.720
  1.760
  1.800
  1.840
  1.880
  1.920
  1.960
  1.990
  2.030
  2.060
  2.090
  2.130
  2.160
  2.190
  2.210
  2.240
  2.270
  2.290
  2.320
  2.340
  2.360
  2.380
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  150
  153
  157
  161
  165
  170
  175
  181
  187
  194
  228
  236
  244
  252
  261
  270
  280
  291
  302
  313
  326
  339
  352
  367
  382
  398
  415
  433
  451
  471
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  191
  194
  198
  203
  208
  213
  219
  226
  233
  240
  210
  219
  228
  237
  248
  258
  270
  282
  295
  308
  323
  338
  354
  370
  388
  407
  426
  447
  468
  491
Funds from operations, $m
  341
  347
  355
  363
  373
  383
  394
  407
  420
  434
  438
  454
  471
  489
  508
  529
  550
  573
  597
  622
  648
  676
  706
  737
  770
  805
  841
  879
  919
  962
Change in working capital, $m
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  36
  37
  39
  42
  44
  46
  48
  51
Cash from operations, $m
  334
  339
  346
  353
  362
  371
  381
  392
  404
  417
  420
  435
  451
  468
  485
  504
  524
  545
  568
  591
  616
  643
  670
  700
  731
  763
  797
  833
  871
  911
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -149
  -153
  -156
  -160
  -165
  -170
  -175
  -181
  -188
  -195
  -202
  -210
  -219
  -228
  -237
  -248
  -258
  -270
  -282
  -295
  -308
  -323
  -338
  -354
  -370
  -388
  -407
  -426
  -447
  -468
New CAPEX, $m
  -29
  -31
  -35
  -40
  -44
  -48
  -53
  -57
  -61
  -66
  -70
  -75
  -80
  -85
  -90
  -95
  -101
  -107
  -113
  -119
  -126
  -133
  -140
  -147
  -155
  -163
  -172
  -181
  -190
  -200
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -178
  -184
  -191
  -200
  -209
  -218
  -228
  -238
  -249
  -261
  -272
  -285
  -299
  -313
  -327
  -343
  -359
  -377
  -395
  -414
  -434
  -456
  -478
  -501
  -525
  -551
  -579
  -607
  -637
  -668
Free cash flow, $m
  155
  156
  154
  154
  153
  153
  153
  154
  155
  157
  148
  150
  152
  155
  158
  161
  165
  169
  173
  177
  182
  187
  193
  199
  205
  212
  219
  226
  234
  242
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  37
  43
  50
  56
  62
  68
  74
  80
  86
  92
  99
  105
  112
  119
  126
  134
  142
  150
  158
  167
  176
  186
  196
  207
  218
  229
  241
  254
  267
  281
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  37
  43
  50
  56
  62
  68
  74
  80
  86
  92
  99
  105
  112
  119
  126
  134
  142
  150
  158
  167
  176
  186
  196
  207
  218
  229
  241
  254
  267
  281
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  192
  199
  204
  209
  215
  221
  227
  234
  241
  249
  247
  255
  265
  274
  284
  295
  307
  319
  331
  345
  359
  373
  389
  405
  423
  441
  460
  480
  501
  523
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -13
  -15
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -86
  -90
  -95
  -100
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  179
  184
  186
  189
  193
  197
  201
  206
  211
  216
  212
  218
  225
  232
  240
  248
  256
  265
  275
  285
  296
  307
  319
  332
  345
  359
  374
  390
  406
  423
Discount rate, %
  8.70
  9.14
  9.59
  10.07
  10.57
  11.10
  11.66
  12.24
  12.85
  13.50
  14.17
  14.88
  15.62
  16.41
  17.23
  18.09
  18.99
  19.94
  20.94
  21.98
  23.08
  24.24
  25.45
  26.72
  28.06
  29.46
  30.93
  32.48
  34.11
  35.81
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  165
  154
  142
  129
  117
  105
  93
  82
  71
  61
  49
  41
  34
  28
  22
  17
  13
  10
  7
  5
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Dean Foods Company is a food and beverage company. The Company processes and distributes fluid milk, and other dairy and dairy case products in the United States. It is engaged in manufacturing, marketing, selling and distributing a range of branded and private label dairy and dairy case products. It offers branded and private label dairy case products, including fluid milk, ice cream, cultured dairy products, creamers, ice cream mix and other dairy products to retailers, distributors, foodservice outlets, educational institutions and governmental entities across the United States. It also offers juices, teas and bottled water. As of December 31, 2016, the Company had over 50 national, regional and local dairy brands, as well as private labels. As of December 31, 2016, the Company's national, local and regional licensed brands included Alta Dena, Hygeia, PET, Arctic Splash, Jilbert, Pog, Barbers Dairy, Purity, Berkeley Farms, Land-O-Sun & design and ReadyLeaf, Broughton.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Dean Foods (DF)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 4.5
Price to Sales 0.1
Price to Book 0.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 2.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 4.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -5.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -11%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -3.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 121.9%
Total Debt to Equity 145%
Interest Coverage 4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 6.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.3%
Return On Total Capital 8.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.2%
Return On Equity 20.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.4%
Asset Turnover 3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 25.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.6%
EBITDA Margin 5.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.4%
Operating Margin 3.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 2.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.6%
Net Profit Margin 1.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.4%
Effective Tax Rate 40.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 46.8%
Payout Ratio 27.5%

DF stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the DF stock intrinsic value calculation we used $7795.025 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Dean Foods. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Dean Foods. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our DF stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.7%, whose default value for DF is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Dean Foods, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Dean Foods.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of DF stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 96.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for DF stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 7.2% for Dean Foods.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Dean Foods. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the DF stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for DF are equal to 16.9%.

Life of production assets of 8.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Dean Foods operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for DF is equal to 4.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $655.947 million for Dean Foods - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 91.374 million for Dean Foods is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Dean Foods at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.5 billion.

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▶ Dean Foods: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [06:13AM  Associated Press]

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