Intrinsic value of Dine Brands Global - DIN

Previous Close

$80.29

  Intrinsic Value

$19.00

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-76%

Previous close

$80.29

 
Intrinsic value

$19.00

 
Up/down potential

-76%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of DIN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  617
  631
  648
  666
  686
  708
  732
  758
  786
  817
  849
  883
  920
  959
  1,000
  1,044
  1,091
  1,140
  1,192
  1,246
  1,304
  1,365
  1,429
  1,497
  1,568
  1,643
  1,722
  1,805
  1,893
  1,985
Variable operating expenses, $m
  406
  413
  422
  431
  441
  452
  465
  478
  492
  508
  432
  449
  468
  488
  509
  531
  555
  580
  606
  634
  663
  694
  727
  761
  798
  836
  876
  918
  963
  1,009
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  406
  413
  422
  431
  441
  452
  465
  478
  492
  508
  432
  449
  468
  488
  509
  531
  555
  580
  606
  634
  663
  694
  727
  761
  798
  836
  876
  918
  963
  1,009
Operating income, $m
  211
  218
  226
  235
  245
  256
  268
  280
  294
  309
  417
  434
  452
  471
  492
  513
  536
  560
  586
  612
  641
  671
  702
  736
  771
  807
  846
  887
  930
  975
EBITDA, $m
  445
  456
  467
  481
  495
  511
  528
  547
  568
  589
  613
  638
  664
  692
  722
  754
  787
  823
  860
  900
  941
  985
  1,032
  1,080
  1,132
  1,186
  1,243
  1,303
  1,366
  1,432
Interest expense (income), $m
  69
  75
  60
  62
  64
  67
  69
  73
  76
  80
  84
  88
  92
  97
  102
  108
  114
  120
  126
  133
  140
  148
  156
  165
  174
  183
  193
  204
  215
  227
  239
Earnings before tax, $m
  136
  158
  164
  171
  178
  186
  195
  205
  215
  226
  329
  342
  355
  369
  384
  400
  416
  434
  452
  472
  493
  515
  538
  562
  587
  614
  642
  672
  703
  736
Tax expense, $m
  37
  43
  44
  46
  48
  50
  53
  55
  58
  61
  89
  92
  96
  100
  104
  108
  112
  117
  122
  127
  133
  139
  145
  152
  159
  166
  173
  181
  190
  199
Net income, $m
  99
  116
  120
  125
  130
  136
  142
  149
  157
  165
  240
  249
  259
  269
  280
  292
  304
  317
  330
  345
  360
  376
  392
  410
  429
  448
  469
  491
  513
  538

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,784
  1,825
  1,871
  1,924
  1,982
  2,046
  2,116
  2,192
  2,273
  2,360
  2,453
  2,553
  2,659
  2,772
  2,891
  3,018
  3,152
  3,294
  3,444
  3,602
  3,769
  3,945
  4,131
  4,326
  4,532
  4,749
  4,977
  5,217
  5,470
  5,736
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,784
  1,825
  1,871
  1,924
  1,982
  2,046
  2,116
  2,192
  2,273
  2,360
  2,453
  2,553
  2,659
  2,772
  2,891
  3,018
  3,152
  3,294
  3,444
  3,602
  3,769
  3,945
  4,131
  4,326
  4,532
  4,749
  4,977
  5,217
  5,470
  5,736
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.346
  0.346
  0.346
  0.346
  0.346
  0.346
  0.346
  0.346
  0.346
  0.346
  0.346
  0.346
  0.346
  0.346
  0.346
  0.346
  0.346
  0.346
  0.346
  0.346
  0.346
  0.346
  0.346
  0.346
  0.346
  0.346
  0.346
  0.346
  0.346
  0.346
Average production assets, $m
  1,422
  1,454
  1,492
  1,534
  1,580
  1,631
  1,687
  1,747
  1,812
  1,881
  1,956
  2,035
  2,120
  2,209
  2,305
  2,406
  2,513
  2,626
  2,745
  2,871
  3,004
  3,145
  3,293
  3,449
  3,613
  3,786
  3,968
  4,159
  4,361
  4,572
Working capital, $m
  -127
  -129
  -133
  -136
  -141
  -145
  -150
  -155
  -161
  -167
  -174
  -181
  -189
  -197
  -205
  -214
  -224
  -234
  -244
  -255
  -267
  -280
  -293
  -307
  -321
  -337
  -353
  -370
  -388
  -407
Total debt, $m
  1,106
  1,143
  1,185
  1,233
  1,285
  1,343
  1,405
  1,473
  1,546
  1,625
  1,709
  1,799
  1,894
  1,995
  2,103
  2,217
  2,338
  2,465
  2,600
  2,743
  2,893
  3,051
  3,218
  3,394
  3,580
  3,775
  3,980
  4,196
  4,424
  4,663
Total liabilities, $m
  1,605
  1,642
  1,684
  1,732
  1,784
  1,842
  1,904
  1,972
  2,046
  2,124
  2,208
  2,298
  2,393
  2,494
  2,602
  2,716
  2,837
  2,964
  3,099
  3,242
  3,392
  3,550
  3,717
  3,893
  4,079
  4,274
  4,479
  4,696
  4,923
  5,162
Total equity, $m
  178
  182
  187
  192
  198
  205
  212
  219
  227
  236
  245
  255
  266
  277
  289
  302
  315
  329
  344
  360
  377
  394
  413
  433
  453
  475
  498
  522
  547
  574
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,783
  1,824
  1,871
  1,924
  1,982
  2,047
  2,116
  2,191
  2,273
  2,360
  2,453
  2,553
  2,659
  2,771
  2,891
  3,018
  3,152
  3,293
  3,443
  3,602
  3,769
  3,944
  4,130
  4,326
  4,532
  4,749
  4,977
  5,218
  5,470
  5,736
Debt-to-equity ratio
  6.200
  6.260
  6.330
  6.410
  6.480
  6.560
  6.640
  6.720
  6.800
  6.890
  6.970
  7.040
  7.120
  7.200
  7.270
  7.350
  7.420
  7.480
  7.550
  7.610
  7.680
  7.730
  7.790
  7.850
  7.900
  7.950
  8.000
  8.040
  8.090
  8.130
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  99
  116
  120
  125
  130
  136
  142
  149
  157
  165
  240
  249
  259
  269
  280
  292
  304
  317
  330
  345
  360
  376
  392
  410
  429
  448
  469
  491
  513
  538
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  234
  238
  241
  246
  250
  255
  261
  267
  273
  280
  196
  204
  212
  221
  230
  241
  251
  263
  275
  287
  300
  314
  329
  345
  361
  379
  397
  416
  436
  457
Funds from operations, $m
  333
  353
  361
  370
  380
  391
  403
  416
  430
  445
  436
  453
  471
  490
  511
  532
  555
  579
  605
  632
  660
  690
  722
  755
  790
  827
  866
  907
  950
  995
Change in working capital, $m
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
Cash from operations, $m
  336
  356
  365
  374
  385
  396
  408
  422
  436
  451
  443
  460
  479
  498
  519
  541
  565
  589
  615
  643
  672
  703
  735
  769
  805
  842
  882
  924
  967
  1,014
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -139
  -142
  -145
  -149
  -153
  -158
  -163
  -169
  -175
  -181
  -188
  -196
  -204
  -212
  -221
  -230
  -241
  -251
  -263
  -275
  -287
  -300
  -314
  -329
  -345
  -361
  -379
  -397
  -416
  -436
New CAPEX, $m
  -28
  -33
  -37
  -42
  -47
  -51
  -56
  -60
  -65
  -70
  -74
  -79
  -85
  -90
  -95
  -101
  -107
  -113
  -119
  -126
  -133
  -140
  -148
  -156
  -164
  -173
  -182
  -191
  -201
  -212
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -167
  -175
  -182
  -191
  -200
  -209
  -219
  -229
  -240
  -251
  -262
  -275
  -289
  -302
  -316
  -331
  -348
  -364
  -382
  -401
  -420
  -440
  -462
  -485
  -509
  -534
  -561
  -588
  -617
  -648
Free cash flow, $m
  168
  181
  182
  183
  185
  187
  190
  193
  196
  200
  180
  185
  191
  197
  203
  210
  217
  225
  233
  242
  252
  262
  272
  284
  296
  308
  321
  335
  350
  366
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -292
  37
  42
  47
  52
  58
  63
  68
  73
  79
  84
  90
  95
  101
  108
  114
  121
  128
  135
  142
  150
  158
  167
  176
  185
  195
  205
  216
  227
  239
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  226
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -66
  37
  42
  47
  52
  58
  63
  68
  73
  79
  84
  90
  95
  101
  108
  114
  121
  128
  135
  142
  150
  158
  167
  176
  185
  195
  205
  216
  227
  239
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  103
  218
  224
  230
  237
  244
  252
  261
  270
  279
  264
  275
  286
  298
  310
  324
  338
  353
  368
  385
  402
  420
  439
  460
  481
  503
  527
  552
  578
  605
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -325
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  34
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -223
  214
  219
  225
  231
  238
  245
  253
  261
  270
  255
  265
  275
  287
  299
  311
  324
  338
  353
  369
  385
  403
  421
  440
  460
  482
  504
  528
  552
  578
Discount rate, %
  15.00
  15.75
  16.54
  17.36
  18.23
  19.14
  20.10
  21.11
  22.16
  23.27
  24.43
  25.66
  26.94
  28.28
  29.70
  31.18
  32.74
  34.38
  36.10
  37.90
  39.80
  41.79
  43.88
  46.07
  48.38
  50.80
  53.34
  56.00
  58.80
  61.74
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -194
  160
  139
  119
  100
  83
  68
  55
  43
  33
  23
  17
  12
  9
  6
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0

DineEquity, Inc., through its subsidiaries, owns and franchises the Applebee's Neighborhood Grill & Bar (Applebee's) concept in the bar and grill segment within the casual dining category of the restaurant industry, and owns, franchises and operates the International House of Pancakes (IHOP) concept in the family dining category of the restaurant industry. It operates through four segments: Franchise operations, Rental operations, Company restaurant operations and Financing operations. As of December 31, 2016, it had 3,749 restaurants. Applebee's menu features a selection of grill and bar fare, such as appetizers, bar snacks, burgers, classic entrees and lighter fare, as well as cocktails, beers and desserts. As of December 31, 2016, IHOP franchise and area license restaurants were located in all 50 states within the United States, in the District of Columbia, in three United States territories and in 10 countries outside of the United States.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Dine Brands Global (DIN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 14.7
Price to Sales 2.3
Price to Book 5.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 12.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 12.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -6.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -14.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 11
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 552.2%
Total Debt to Equity 557.3%
Interest Coverage 3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 6.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.8%
Return On Total Capital 5.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.7%
Return On Equity 37.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.4%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 59.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 58.5%
EBITDA Margin 39.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.9%
Operating Margin 24.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19%
Pre-Tax Margin 24.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19%
Net Profit Margin 15.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.1%
Effective Tax Rate 35.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.9%
Payout Ratio 68.4%

DIN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the DIN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $605 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Dine Brands Global. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Dine Brands Global. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our DIN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 15%, whose default value for DIN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Dine Brands Global, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Dine Brands Global.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of DIN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 66.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for DIN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Dine Brands Global.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Dine Brands Global. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the DIN stock is equal to 1.8%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for DIN are equal to 230.4%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Dine Brands Global operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for DIN is equal to -20.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-147 million for Dine Brands Global - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 18 million for Dine Brands Global is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Dine Brands Global at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.4 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Dine Brands Seeing Robust Growth After Tax Cuts, CEO Says   [Aug-01-18 02:29PM  Bloomberg Video]
▶ Let's Chew Over Dine Brands' Results   [12:00PM  TheStreet.com]
▶ Dine Brands: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [06:35AM  Associated Press]
▶ IHOP President: Millennials are 'our sweet spot'   [Jul-18-18 01:10PM  Yahoo Finance]
▶ IHOP Delivery Goes National With DoorDash Deal   [Jul-17-18 01:26PM  InvestorPlace]
▶ IHOP pancakes delivered to your home   [01:08PM  Yahoo Finance Video]
▶ IHOP 60-Cent Pancakes: How to Get Yours   [11:44AM  InvestorPlace]
▶ IHOP partners with DoorDash for delivery   [07:42AM  MarketWatch]
▶ IHOP admits IHOB was a publicity stunt   [Jul-10-18 12:58PM  Yahoo Finance Video]
▶ IHOP admits IHOb name change was a publicity stunt   [07:18AM  Fox Business Videos]
▶ [$$] Applebee's Franchise Owner Looks to Pay Bonuses, Severance   [Jun-28-18 02:47PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Fathers Day Deals 2018: The Best Discounts and Freebies   [Jun-15-18 03:00PM  InvestorPlace]
▶ IHOb (Née IHOP) Temporary Name Change Sends Parent's Stock Higher   [Jun-11-18 05:03PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Why IHOB Makes Perfect Sense   [01:17PM  TheStreet.com]
▶ IHOP is changing its name to IHOb on Monday, June 11   [Jun-06-18 04:40PM  Yahoo Finance Video]
▶ [$$] Applebee's Moves to Possibly Seize Bankrupt Franchisee's Restaurants   [May-17-18 04:27PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Hawaii franchisee looks to grow IHOP, Applebee's brands with more restaurants   [May-09-18 08:29PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Dine Brands CEO on rebranding and rebounding   [May-08-18 06:31AM  CNBC Videos]
▶ Dine Brands: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [08:39AM  Associated Press]
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