Intrinsic value of DISH Network Corporation - DISH

Previous Close

$31.96

  Intrinsic Value

$19.75

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-38%

Previous close

$31.96

 
Intrinsic value

$19.75

 
Up/down potential

-38%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of DISH stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 15.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  13,893
  14,213
  14,578
  14,988
  15,443
  15,941
  16,484
  17,072
  17,705
  18,384
  19,111
  19,887
  20,713
  21,591
  22,522
  23,509
  24,554
  25,659
  26,826
  28,059
  29,359
  30,731
  32,176
  33,700
  35,304
  36,993
  38,771
  40,642
  42,610
  44,681
Variable operating expenses, $m
  12,375
  12,655
  12,976
  13,335
  13,734
  14,171
  14,647
  15,162
  15,717
  16,313
  16,758
  17,438
  18,162
  18,932
  19,748
  20,614
  21,530
  22,499
  23,522
  24,603
  25,743
  26,946
  28,214
  29,549
  30,956
  32,437
  33,996
  35,637
  37,363
  39,178
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  12,375
  12,655
  12,976
  13,335
  13,734
  14,171
  14,647
  15,162
  15,717
  16,313
  16,758
  17,438
  18,162
  18,932
  19,748
  20,614
  21,530
  22,499
  23,522
  24,603
  25,743
  26,946
  28,214
  29,549
  30,956
  32,437
  33,996
  35,637
  37,363
  39,178
Operating income, $m
  1,518
  1,558
  1,603
  1,653
  1,709
  1,770
  1,837
  1,910
  1,988
  2,071
  2,354
  2,449
  2,551
  2,659
  2,774
  2,895
  3,024
  3,160
  3,304
  3,456
  3,616
  3,785
  3,963
  4,150
  4,348
  4,556
  4,775
  5,005
  5,248
  5,503
EBITDA, $m
  2,131
  2,180
  2,236
  2,299
  2,368
  2,445
  2,528
  2,618
  2,715
  2,819
  2,931
  3,050
  3,176
  3,311
  3,454
  3,605
  3,765
  3,935
  4,114
  4,303
  4,502
  4,713
  4,934
  5,168
  5,414
  5,673
  5,946
  6,233
  6,534
  6,852
Interest expense (income), $m
  775
  818
  843
  871
  903
  938
  978
  1,022
  1,069
  1,120
  1,175
  1,235
  1,298
  1,366
  1,438
  1,514
  1,596
  1,682
  1,773
  1,869
  1,971
  2,079
  2,192
  2,312
  2,438
  2,571
  2,711
  2,858
  3,013
  3,177
  3,348
Earnings before tax, $m
  700
  715
  732
  750
  771
  792
  816
  841
  867
  896
  1,119
  1,151
  1,185
  1,221
  1,259
  1,299
  1,342
  1,387
  1,434
  1,484
  1,537
  1,592
  1,651
  1,712
  1,777
  1,845
  1,916
  1,992
  2,071
  2,154
Tax expense, $m
  189
  193
  198
  203
  208
  214
  220
  227
  234
  242
  302
  311
  320
  330
  340
  351
  362
  374
  387
  401
  415
  430
  446
  462
  480
  498
  517
  538
  559
  582
Net income, $m
  511
  522
  534
  548
  563
  578
  595
  614
  633
  654
  817
  840
  865
  891
  919
  949
  980
  1,012
  1,047
  1,084
  1,122
  1,162
  1,205
  1,250
  1,297
  1,347
  1,399
  1,454
  1,512
  1,573

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  31,221
  31,939
  32,760
  33,682
  34,703
  35,823
  37,043
  38,364
  39,787
  41,313
  42,947
  44,690
  46,546
  48,518
  50,611
  52,829
  55,177
  57,660
  60,283
  63,053
  65,976
  69,058
  72,307
  75,730
  79,335
  83,131
  87,126
  91,331
  95,754
  100,406
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  31,221
  31,939
  32,760
  33,682
  34,703
  35,823
  37,043
  38,364
  39,787
  41,313
  42,947
  44,690
  46,546
  48,518
  50,611
  52,829
  55,177
  57,660
  60,283
  63,053
  65,976
  69,058
  72,307
  75,730
  79,335
  83,131
  87,126
  91,331
  95,754
  100,406
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
Average production assets, $m
  2,098
  2,146
  2,201
  2,263
  2,332
  2,407
  2,489
  2,578
  2,673
  2,776
  2,886
  3,003
  3,128
  3,260
  3,401
  3,550
  3,708
  3,874
  4,051
  4,237
  4,433
  4,640
  4,859
  5,089
  5,331
  5,586
  5,854
  6,137
  6,434
  6,747
Working capital, $m
  -2,265
  -2,317
  -2,376
  -2,443
  -2,517
  -2,598
  -2,687
  -2,783
  -2,886
  -2,997
  -3,115
  -3,242
  -3,376
  -3,519
  -3,671
  -3,832
  -4,002
  -4,182
  -4,373
  -4,574
  -4,786
  -5,009
  -5,245
  -5,493
  -5,755
  -6,030
  -6,320
  -6,625
  -6,945
  -7,283
Total debt, $m
  15,609
  16,126
  16,716
  17,379
  18,113
  18,918
  19,795
  20,745
  21,768
  22,866
  24,040
  25,294
  26,628
  28,046
  29,551
  31,146
  32,834
  34,619
  36,505
  38,496
  40,598
  42,814
  45,150
  47,611
  50,203
  52,933
  55,805
  58,828
  62,008
  65,353
Total liabilities, $m
  22,448
  22,964
  23,555
  24,217
  24,951
  25,757
  26,634
  27,584
  28,607
  29,704
  30,879
  32,132
  33,466
  34,885
  36,389
  37,984
  39,672
  41,457
  43,343
  45,335
  47,436
  49,653
  51,988
  54,450
  57,042
  59,771
  62,644
  65,667
  68,847
  72,192
Total equity, $m
  8,773
  8,975
  9,206
  9,465
  9,751
  10,066
  10,409
  10,780
  11,180
  11,609
  12,068
  12,558
  13,079
  13,634
  14,222
  14,845
  15,505
  16,202
  16,940
  17,718
  18,539
  19,405
  20,318
  21,280
  22,293
  23,360
  24,482
  25,664
  26,907
  28,214
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  31,221
  31,939
  32,761
  33,682
  34,702
  35,823
  37,043
  38,364
  39,787
  41,313
  42,947
  44,690
  46,545
  48,519
  50,611
  52,829
  55,177
  57,659
  60,283
  63,053
  65,975
  69,058
  72,306
  75,730
  79,335
  83,131
  87,126
  91,331
  95,754
  100,406
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.780
  1.800
  1.820
  1.840
  1.860
  1.880
  1.900
  1.920
  1.950
  1.970
  1.990
  2.010
  2.040
  2.060
  2.080
  2.100
  2.120
  2.140
  2.160
  2.170
  2.190
  2.210
  2.220
  2.240
  2.250
  2.270
  2.280
  2.290
  2.300
  2.320
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.281
  0.281
  0.281
  0.281
  0.281
  0.281
  0.281
  0.281
  0.281
  0.281
  0.281
  0.281
  0.281
  0.281
  0.281
  0.281
  0.281
  0.281
  0.281
  0.281
  0.281
  0.281
  0.281
  0.281
  0.281
  0.281
  0.281
  0.281
  0.281
  0.281

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  511
  522
  534
  548
  563
  578
  595
  614
  633
  654
  817
  840
  865
  891
  919
  949
  980
  1,012
  1,047
  1,084
  1,122
  1,162
  1,205
  1,250
  1,297
  1,347
  1,399
  1,454
  1,512
  1,573
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  612
  622
  633
  645
  659
  674
  691
  708
  727
  748
  577
  601
  626
  652
  680
  710
  742
  775
  810
  847
  887
  928
  972
  1,018
  1,066
  1,117
  1,171
  1,227
  1,287
  1,349
Funds from operations, $m
  1,123
  1,144
  1,167
  1,193
  1,222
  1,253
  1,286
  1,322
  1,361
  1,402
  1,394
  1,441
  1,491
  1,543
  1,599
  1,659
  1,721
  1,787
  1,857
  1,931
  2,009
  2,090
  2,177
  2,268
  2,363
  2,464
  2,570
  2,681
  2,799
  2,922
Change in working capital, $m
  -44
  -52
  -60
  -67
  -74
  -81
  -88
  -96
  -103
  -111
  -118
  -126
  -135
  -143
  -152
  -161
  -170
  -180
  -190
  -201
  -212
  -224
  -236
  -248
  -262
  -275
  -290
  -305
  -321
  -337
Cash from operations, $m
  1,168
  1,196
  1,227
  1,260
  1,296
  1,334
  1,375
  1,418
  1,464
  1,513
  1,512
  1,567
  1,625
  1,686
  1,751
  1,819
  1,892
  1,967
  2,047
  2,132
  2,221
  2,314
  2,412
  2,516
  2,625
  2,739
  2,860
  2,986
  3,119
  3,259
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -411
  -420
  -429
  -440
  -453
  -466
  -481
  -498
  -516
  -535
  -555
  -577
  -601
  -626
  -652
  -680
  -710
  -742
  -775
  -810
  -847
  -887
  -928
  -972
  -1,018
  -1,066
  -1,117
  -1,171
  -1,227
  -1,287
New CAPEX, $m
  -42
  -48
  -55
  -62
  -69
  -75
  -82
  -89
  -96
  -103
  -110
  -117
  -125
  -133
  -141
  -149
  -158
  -167
  -176
  -186
  -196
  -207
  -218
  -230
  -242
  -255
  -268
  -283
  -297
  -313
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -453
  -468
  -484
  -502
  -522
  -541
  -563
  -587
  -612
  -638
  -665
  -694
  -726
  -759
  -793
  -829
  -868
  -909
  -951
  -996
  -1,043
  -1,094
  -1,146
  -1,202
  -1,260
  -1,321
  -1,385
  -1,454
  -1,524
  -1,600
Free cash flow, $m
  715
  728
  742
  758
  775
  792
  811
  831
  853
  875
  847
  873
  900
  928
  959
  990
  1,024
  1,059
  1,096
  1,136
  1,177
  1,220
  1,266
  1,314
  1,365
  1,418
  1,474
  1,533
  1,595
  1,660
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  457
  516
  590
  663
  734
  806
  877
  950
  1,023
  1,098
  1,175
  1,253
  1,334
  1,418
  1,505
  1,595
  1,688
  1,785
  1,886
  1,992
  2,101
  2,216
  2,336
  2,461
  2,592
  2,729
  2,873
  3,023
  3,180
  3,345
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  457
  516
  590
  663
  734
  806
  877
  950
  1,023
  1,098
  1,175
  1,253
  1,334
  1,418
  1,505
  1,595
  1,688
  1,785
  1,886
  1,992
  2,101
  2,216
  2,336
  2,461
  2,592
  2,729
  2,873
  3,023
  3,180
  3,345
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  1,171
  1,244
  1,333
  1,421
  1,509
  1,598
  1,688
  1,781
  1,876
  1,973
  2,022
  2,126
  2,234
  2,347
  2,463
  2,585
  2,712
  2,844
  2,983
  3,127
  3,278
  3,436
  3,602
  3,775
  3,957
  4,147
  4,347
  4,556
  4,775
  5,005
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -177
  -202
  -231
  -259
  -287
  -315
  -343
  -371
  -400
  -429
  -459
  -490
  -521
  -554
  -588
  -623
  -660
  -698
  -737
  -778
  -821
  -866
  -913
  -962
  -1,013
  -1,067
  -1,123
  -1,181
  -1,243
  -1,307
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  994
  1,043
  1,102
  1,162
  1,222
  1,283
  1,346
  1,410
  1,476
  1,544
  1,563
  1,636
  1,713
  1,792
  1,875
  1,962
  2,052
  2,147
  2,245
  2,349
  2,457
  2,570
  2,689
  2,813
  2,944
  3,081
  3,224
  3,374
  3,532
  3,698
Discount rate, %
  8.20
  8.61
  9.04
  9.49
  9.97
  10.47
  10.99
  11.54
  12.12
  12.72
  13.36
  14.02
  14.73
  15.46
  16.24
  17.05
  17.90
  18.79
  19.73
  20.72
  21.76
  22.84
  23.99
  25.19
  26.45
  27.77
  29.16
  30.61
  32.15
  33.75
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  919
  884
  850
  808
  760
  706
  649
  589
  527
  466
  394
  339
  287
  239
  196
  158
  125
  97
  73
  54
  39
  28
  19
  13
  8
  5
  3
  2
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

DISH Network Corporation is a holding company. The Company operates through two segments: Pay-TV and Broadband, and Wireless. It offers pay-TV services under the DISH brand and the Sling brand (collectively Pay-TV services). The DISH branded pay-TV service consists of Federal Communications Commission (FCC) licenses authorizing it to use direct broadcast satellite and Fixed Satellite Service spectrum, its owned and leased satellites, receiver systems, third-party broadcast operations, customer service facilities, a leased fiber optic network, in-home service and call center operations, and certain other assets utilized in its operations. The Sling branded pay-TV services consist of live, linear streaming over-the-top Internet-based domestic, international and Latino video programing services. The Company markets broadband services under the dishNET brand. The Company makes investments in the research and development, wireless testing and wireless network infrastructure.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  DISH Network Corporation (DISH)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 10.3
Price to Sales 1
Price to Book 3.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 5.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 6.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 0.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -93.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -13.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 6
Current Ratio 0.4
LT Debt to Equity 336.8%
Total Debt to Equity 357.3%
Interest Coverage 4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 7.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7%
Return On Total Capital 7.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.1%
Return On Equity 39.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 44.7%
Asset Turnover 0.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 30.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 28.2%
EBITDA Margin 26.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.6%
Operating Margin 14.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12%
Pre-Tax Margin 15.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.4%
Net Profit Margin 9.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7%
Effective Tax Rate 36.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.5%
Payout Ratio 0%

DISH stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the DISH stock intrinsic value calculation we used $13621 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by DISH Network Corporation. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of DISH Network Corporation. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our DISH stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.2%, whose default value for DISH is calculated based on our internal credit rating of DISH Network Corporation, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of DISH Network Corporation.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of DISH stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 89.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for DISH stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for DISH Network Corporation.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for DISH Network Corporation. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the DISH stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for DISH are equal to 15.1%.

Life of production assets of 2.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in DISH Network Corporation operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for DISH is equal to -16.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $8595.688 million for DISH Network Corporation - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 467.915 million for DISH Network Corporation is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of DISH Network Corporation at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $15.0 billion.

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