Intrinsic value of Dick's Sporting Goods - DKS

Previous Close

$33.45

  Intrinsic Value

$40.14

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

+20%

Previous close

$33.45

 
Intrinsic value

$40.14

 
Up/down potential

+20%

 
Rating

hold

We calculate the intrinsic value of DKS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  4.60
  4.64
  4.68
  4.71
  4.74
  4.76
  4.79
  4.81
  4.83
  4.85
  4.86
  4.87
  4.89
  4.90
  4.91
  4.92
  4.93
  4.93
  4.94
  4.95
  4.95
  4.96
  4.96
  4.96
  4.97
  4.97
  4.97
  4.98
  4.98
  4.98
Revenue, $m
  8,986
  9,403
  9,842
  10,306
  10,794
  11,308
  11,849
  12,419
  13,019
  13,650
  14,313
  15,011
  15,744
  16,516
  17,326
  18,178
  19,074
  20,015
  21,003
  22,042
  23,134
  24,280
  25,485
  26,750
  28,079
  29,475
  30,941
  32,480
  34,098
  35,796
Variable operating expenses, $m
  8,472
  8,863
  9,276
  9,710
  10,169
  10,651
  11,159
  11,694
  12,257
  12,849
  13,433
  14,087
  14,776
  15,500
  16,261
  17,060
  17,901
  18,784
  19,711
  20,686
  21,711
  22,787
  23,917
  25,104
  26,352
  27,662
  29,038
  30,483
  32,000
  33,594
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  8,472
  8,863
  9,276
  9,710
  10,169
  10,651
  11,159
  11,694
  12,257
  12,849
  13,433
  14,087
  14,776
  15,500
  16,261
  17,060
  17,901
  18,784
  19,711
  20,686
  21,711
  22,787
  23,917
  25,104
  26,352
  27,662
  29,038
  30,483
  32,000
  33,594
Operating income, $m
  514
  540
  567
  595
  625
  657
  690
  725
  762
  801
  880
  923
  968
  1,016
  1,066
  1,118
  1,173
  1,231
  1,292
  1,356
  1,423
  1,493
  1,567
  1,645
  1,727
  1,813
  1,903
  1,998
  2,097
  2,202
EBITDA, $m
  776
  812
  850
  890
  932
  977
  1,024
  1,073
  1,125
  1,179
  1,236
  1,297
  1,360
  1,427
  1,497
  1,570
  1,648
  1,729
  1,814
  1,904
  1,998
  2,097
  2,202
  2,311
  2,426
  2,546
  2,673
  2,806
  2,946
  3,092
Interest expense (income), $m
  5
  15
  39
  64
  90
  118
  147
  178
  211
  245
  281
  319
  358
  400
  444
  491
  539
  590
  644
  701
  760
  822
  888
  957
  1,029
  1,105
  1,185
  1,269
  1,357
  1,449
  1,546
Earnings before tax, $m
  499
  501
  503
  505
  507
  510
  512
  515
  517
  520
  562
  565
  568
  571
  575
  579
  583
  587
  591
  596
  600
  605
  611
  616
  622
  628
  634
  641
  648
  655
Tax expense, $m
  135
  135
  136
  136
  137
  138
  138
  139
  140
  140
  152
  153
  153
  154
  155
  156
  157
  158
  160
  161
  162
  163
  165
  166
  168
  170
  171
  173
  175
  177
Net income, $m
  364
  366
  367
  369
  370
  372
  374
  376
  378
  380
  410
  412
  415
  417
  420
  422
  425
  428
  431
  435
  438
  442
  446
  450
  454
  458
  463
  468
  473
  478

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  4,398
  4,602
  4,818
  5,044
  5,283
  5,535
  5,800
  6,079
  6,372
  6,681
  7,006
  7,347
  7,706
  8,084
  8,481
  8,898
  9,336
  9,797
  10,281
  10,789
  11,323
  11,885
  12,474
  13,093
  13,744
  14,427
  15,145
  15,898
  16,690
  17,521
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  4,398
  4,602
  4,818
  5,044
  5,283
  5,535
  5,800
  6,079
  6,372
  6,681
  7,006
  7,347
  7,706
  8,084
  8,481
  8,898
  9,336
  9,797
  10,281
  10,789
  11,323
  11,885
  12,474
  13,093
  13,744
  14,427
  15,145
  15,898
  16,690
  17,521
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.043
  2.043
  2.043
  2.043
  2.043
  2.043
  2.043
  2.043
  2.043
  2.043
  2.043
  2.043
  2.043
  2.043
  2.043
  2.043
  2.043
  2.043
  2.043
  2.043
  2.043
  2.043
  2.043
  2.043
  2.043
  2.043
  2.043
  2.043
  2.043
  2.043
Average production assets, $m
  1,878
  1,965
  2,057
  2,154
  2,256
  2,363
  2,477
  2,596
  2,721
  2,853
  2,991
  3,137
  3,291
  3,452
  3,621
  3,799
  3,986
  4,183
  4,390
  4,607
  4,835
  5,075
  5,326
  5,591
  5,868
  6,160
  6,467
  6,788
  7,126
  7,481
Working capital, $m
  503
  527
  551
  577
  604
  633
  664
  695
  729
  764
  802
  841
  882
  925
  970
  1,018
  1,068
  1,121
  1,176
  1,234
  1,295
  1,360
  1,427
  1,498
  1,572
  1,651
  1,733
  1,819
  1,909
  2,005
Total debt, $m
  169
  279
  395
  517
  645
  781
  923
  1,073
  1,231
  1,397
  1,572
  1,756
  1,949
  2,152
  2,365
  2,590
  2,826
  3,073
  3,334
  3,607
  3,895
  4,197
  4,514
  4,847
  5,197
  5,565
  5,951
  6,356
  6,782
  7,229
Total liabilities, $m
  2,366
  2,476
  2,592
  2,714
  2,842
  2,978
  3,120
  3,270
  3,428
  3,594
  3,769
  3,953
  4,146
  4,349
  4,563
  4,787
  5,023
  5,271
  5,531
  5,805
  6,092
  6,394
  6,711
  7,044
  7,394
  7,762
  8,148
  8,553
  8,979
  9,426
Total equity, $m
  2,032
  2,126
  2,226
  2,330
  2,441
  2,557
  2,680
  2,808
  2,944
  3,087
  3,237
  3,394
  3,560
  3,735
  3,918
  4,111
  4,313
  4,526
  4,750
  4,985
  5,231
  5,491
  5,763
  6,049
  6,350
  6,665
  6,997
  7,345
  7,711
  8,095
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  4,398
  4,602
  4,818
  5,044
  5,283
  5,535
  5,800
  6,078
  6,372
  6,681
  7,006
  7,347
  7,706
  8,084
  8,481
  8,898
  9,336
  9,797
  10,281
  10,790
  11,323
  11,885
  12,474
  13,093
  13,744
  14,427
  15,145
  15,898
  16,690
  17,521
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.080
  0.130
  0.180
  0.220
  0.260
  0.310
  0.340
  0.380
  0.420
  0.450
  0.490
  0.520
  0.550
  0.580
  0.600
  0.630
  0.660
  0.680
  0.700
  0.720
  0.740
  0.760
  0.780
  0.800
  0.820
  0.830
  0.850
  0.870
  0.880
  0.890
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  364
  366
  367
  369
  370
  372
  374
  376
  378
  380
  410
  412
  415
  417
  420
  422
  425
  428
  431
  435
  438
  442
  446
  450
  454
  458
  463
  468
  473
  478
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  262
  273
  284
  295
  307
  320
  334
  348
  363
  378
  356
  373
  392
  411
  431
  452
  475
  498
  523
  548
  576
  604
  634
  666
  699
  733
  770
  808
  848
  891
Funds from operations, $m
  627
  638
  651
  664
  678
  692
  707
  723
  740
  758
  766
  786
  806
  828
  851
  875
  900
  926
  954
  983
  1,014
  1,046
  1,080
  1,115
  1,153
  1,192
  1,233
  1,276
  1,321
  1,369
Change in working capital, $m
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  48
  50
  53
  55
  58
  61
  64
  67
  71
  74
  78
  82
  86
  91
  95
Cash from operations, $m
  604
  615
  626
  638
  650
  663
  677
  691
  707
  723
  729
  747
  765
  785
  805
  827
  850
  874
  899
  925
  953
  982
  1,012
  1,044
  1,078
  1,114
  1,151
  1,190
  1,231
  1,274
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -213
  -224
  -234
  -245
  -256
  -269
  -281
  -295
  -309
  -324
  -340
  -356
  -373
  -392
  -411
  -431
  -452
  -475
  -498
  -523
  -548
  -576
  -604
  -634
  -666
  -699
  -733
  -770
  -808
  -848
New CAPEX, $m
  -85
  -87
  -92
  -97
  -102
  -107
  -113
  -119
  -125
  -132
  -139
  -146
  -153
  -161
  -169
  -178
  -187
  -197
  -207
  -217
  -228
  -240
  -252
  -264
  -278
  -292
  -306
  -322
  -338
  -355
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -298
  -311
  -326
  -342
  -358
  -376
  -394
  -414
  -434
  -456
  -479
  -502
  -526
  -553
  -580
  -609
  -639
  -672
  -705
  -740
  -776
  -816
  -856
  -898
  -944
  -991
  -1,039
  -1,092
  -1,146
  -1,203
Free cash flow, $m
  306
  304
  300
  296
  292
  287
  283
  278
  272
  267
  251
  245
  239
  232
  225
  218
  210
  202
  194
  185
  176
  167
  157
  146
  135
  123
  111
  98
  85
  71
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  104
  110
  116
  122
  129
  135
  143
  150
  158
  166
  175
  184
  193
  203
  213
  224
  236
  248
  260
  274
  287
  302
  317
  333
  350
  368
  386
  405
  426
  447
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  104
  110
  116
  122
  129
  135
  143
  150
  158
  166
  175
  184
  193
  203
  213
  224
  236
  248
  260
  274
  287
  302
  317
  333
  350
  368
  386
  405
  426
  447
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  410
  414
  416
  418
  420
  423
  425
  428
  430
  433
  425
  429
  432
  435
  439
  442
  446
  450
  454
  459
  464
  469
  474
  479
  485
  491
  497
  504
  511
  518
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -90
  -94
  -99
  -105
  -110
  -116
  -122
  -129
  -136
  -143
  -150
  -158
  -166
  -174
  -183
  -193
  -202
  -213
  -224
  -235
  -247
  -259
  -272
  -286
  -301
  -316
  -332
  -348
  -366
  -384
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  320
  320
  317
  313
  310
  306
  303
  299
  295
  290
  275
  271
  266
  261
  255
  250
  244
  237
  231
  224
  217
  209
  201
  193
  184
  175
  166
  155
  145
  134
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  306
  293
  276
  258
  240
  222
  204
  187
  169
  152
  131
  116
  101
  88
  75
  63
  53
  44
  36
  28
  22
  17
  13
  10
  7
  5
  4
  2
  2
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Dick's Sporting Goods, Inc. is an omni-channel sporting goods retailer offering an assortment of sports equipment, apparel, footwear and accessories in its specialty retail stores primarily in the eastern United States. The Company also owns and operates Golf Galaxy, Field & Stream and other specialty concept stores, and Dick's Team Sports HQ, an all-in-one youth sports digital platform offering free league management services, mobile applications for scheduling, communications and live scorekeeping, custom uniforms and FanWear and access to donations and sponsorships. The Company offers its products through a content-rich e-commerce platform that is integrated with its store network and provides customers with the convenience and expertise of a 24-hour storefront. It offers products to its customers through its retail stores and online. The Company offers hardlines, which include items, such as sporting goods equipment, fitness equipment, golf equipment, and hunting and fishing gear.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 12.9
Price to Sales 0.5
Price to Book 1.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 4.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 11.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 16.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 4.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 165
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0.2%
Total Debt to Equity 0.3%
Interest Coverage 93
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 7.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.3%
Return On Total Capital 15.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.7%
Return On Equity 15.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.7%
Asset Turnover 2.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 29.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.2%
EBITDA Margin 8.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.9%
Operating Margin 5.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.1%
Pre-Tax Margin 5.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.1%
Net Profit Margin 3.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.4%
Effective Tax Rate 37.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.8%
Payout Ratio 23.7%

DKS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the DKS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $8590.472 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Dick's Sporting Goods. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Dick's Sporting Goods. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our DKS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 4.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for DKS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Dick's Sporting Goods, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Dick's Sporting Goods.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of DKS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 94.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for DKS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 22.8% for Dick's Sporting Goods.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Dick's Sporting Goods. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the DKS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for DKS are equal to 20.9%.

Life of production assets of 8.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Dick's Sporting Goods operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for DKS is equal to 5.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1941.501 million for Dick's Sporting Goods - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 77.923 million for Dick's Sporting Goods is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Dick's Sporting Goods at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.6 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

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▶ Company News For Aug 30, 2018   [09:38AM  Zacks]
▶ [$$] Dicks Says Under Armour, New Gun-Sales Policy Dragged on Results   [Aug-29-18 08:03PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Closing Bell: LIVE MARKETS BLOG   [04:03PM  TheStreet.com]
▶ Under Armour 'has been difficult' for Dick's, CEO says   [02:57PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Big names in the Wednesday blitz   [01:26PM  CNBC Videos]
▶ Dick's: Fiscal 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [07:37AM  Associated Press]
▶ [$$] Dicks Sporting Goods drops 9% on weak sales numbers   [Aug-28-18 09:23PM  Financial Times]
▶ Yahoo Finance Live: Market Movers - Aug 27th, 2018   [07:10AM  Yahoo Finance Video]
▶ Top Ranked Value Stocks to Buy for August 23rd   [Aug-23-18 10:08AM  Zacks]
▶ Kohl's CEO: Under Armour 'has delivered very strong performance'   [Aug-21-18 01:19PM  American City Business Journals]
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