Intrinsic value of Dick's Sporting Goods - DKS

Previous Close

$36.39

  Intrinsic Value

$16.54

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-55%

Previous close

$36.39

 
Intrinsic value

$16.54

 
Up/down potential

-55%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of DKS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2018), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047
   2048

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  8.40
  8.06
  7.75
  7.48
  7.23
  7.01
  6.81
  6.63
  6.46
  6.32
  6.19
  6.07
  5.96
  5.86
  5.78
  5.70
  5.63
  5.57
  5.51
  5.46
  5.41
  5.37
  5.33
  5.30
  5.27
  5.24
  5.22
  5.20
  5.18
  5.16
Revenue, $m
  9,312
  10,062
  10,842
  11,653
  12,496
  13,371
  14,282
  15,228
  16,212
  17,236
  18,302
  19,413
  20,570
  21,776
  23,034
  24,347
  25,718
  27,150
  28,646
  30,210
  31,845
  33,556
  35,346
  37,220
  39,182
  41,237
  43,389
  45,644
  48,008
  50,485
Variable operating expenses, $m
  8,778
  9,482
  10,214
  10,975
  11,766
  12,588
  13,442
  14,330
  15,254
  16,215
  17,177
  18,219
  19,305
  20,437
  21,618
  22,850
  24,136
  25,480
  26,884
  28,352
  29,887
  31,492
  33,172
  34,931
  36,772
  38,700
  40,720
  42,837
  45,055
  47,380
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  8,778
  9,482
  10,214
  10,975
  11,766
  12,588
  13,442
  14,330
  15,254
  16,215
  17,177
  18,219
  19,305
  20,437
  21,618
  22,850
  24,136
  25,480
  26,884
  28,352
  29,887
  31,492
  33,172
  34,931
  36,772
  38,700
  40,720
  42,837
  45,055
  47,380
Operating income, $m
  534
  580
  628
  678
  730
  784
  840
  898
  958
  1,021
  1,126
  1,194
  1,265
  1,339
  1,417
  1,497
  1,582
  1,670
  1,762
  1,858
  1,959
  2,064
  2,174
  2,289
  2,410
  2,536
  2,669
  2,807
  2,953
  3,105
EBITDA, $m
  788
  851
  917
  986
  1,057
  1,131
  1,208
  1,288
  1,372
  1,458
  1,548
  1,642
  1,740
  1,842
  1,949
  2,060
  2,176
  2,297
  2,424
  2,556
  2,694
  2,839
  2,990
  3,149
  3,315
  3,489
  3,671
  3,862
  4,062
  4,271
Interest expense (income), $m
  5
  15
  58
  103
  150
  199
  249
  302
  357
  413
  473
  534
  598
  665
  734
  807
  882
  961
  1,043
  1,129
  1,219
  1,313
  1,411
  1,514
  1,621
  1,734
  1,852
  1,975
  2,104
  2,240
  2,382
Earnings before tax, $m
  519
  522
  525
  528
  531
  534
  538
  541
  545
  549
  592
  596
  600
  605
  610
  615
  621
  627
  633
  639
  646
  653
  660
  668
  676
  685
  694
  703
  713
  723
Tax expense, $m
  140
  141
  142
  143
  143
  144
  145
  146
  147
  148
  160
  161
  162
  163
  165
  166
  168
  169
  171
  173
  174
  176
  178
  180
  183
  185
  187
  190
  193
  195
Net income, $m
  379
  381
  383
  385
  388
  390
  393
  395
  398
  401
  432
  435
  438
  442
  445
  449
  453
  457
  462
  466
  471
  476
  482
  488
  493
  500
  506
  513
  521
  528

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  4,558
  4,925
  5,307
  5,704
  6,116
  6,545
  6,990
  7,454
  7,935
  8,437
  8,959
  9,502
  10,069
  10,659
  11,275
  11,917
  12,588
  13,289
  14,022
  14,787
  15,587
  16,425
  17,301
  18,218
  19,179
  20,184
  21,238
  22,342
  23,499
  24,711
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  4,558
  4,925
  5,307
  5,704
  6,116
  6,545
  6,990
  7,454
  7,935
  8,437
  8,959
  9,502
  10,069
  10,659
  11,275
  11,917
  12,588
  13,289
  14,022
  14,787
  15,587
  16,425
  17,301
  18,218
  19,179
  20,184
  21,238
  22,342
  23,499
  24,711
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.043
  2.043
  2.043
  2.043
  2.043
  2.043
  2.043
  2.043
  2.043
  2.043
  2.043
  2.043
  2.043
  2.043
  2.043
  2.043
  2.043
  2.043
  2.043
  2.043
  2.043
  2.043
  2.043
  2.043
  2.043
  2.043
  2.043
  2.043
  2.043
  2.043
Average production assets, $m
  2,151
  2,324
  2,505
  2,692
  2,887
  3,089
  3,299
  3,518
  3,745
  3,982
  4,228
  4,484
  4,752
  5,030
  5,321
  5,624
  5,941
  6,272
  6,617
  6,978
  7,356
  7,751
  8,165
  8,598
  9,051
  9,526
  10,023
  10,544
  11,090
  11,662
Working capital, $m
  940
  1,016
  1,095
  1,177
  1,262
  1,351
  1,442
  1,538
  1,637
  1,741
  1,849
  1,961
  2,078
  2,199
  2,326
  2,459
  2,598
  2,742
  2,893
  3,051
  3,216
  3,389
  3,570
  3,759
  3,957
  4,165
  4,382
  4,610
  4,849
  5,099
Total debt, $m
  255
  453
  659
  872
  1,094
  1,325
  1,564
  1,813
  2,073
  2,342
  2,623
  2,916
  3,220
  3,538
  3,869
  4,215
  4,576
  4,953
  5,347
  5,759
  6,189
  6,640
  7,111
  7,605
  8,121
  8,662
  9,229
  9,823
  10,446
  11,098
Total liabilities, $m
  2,452
  2,650
  2,855
  3,069
  3,291
  3,521
  3,761
  4,010
  4,269
  4,539
  4,820
  5,112
  5,417
  5,735
  6,066
  6,412
  6,773
  7,150
  7,544
  7,955
  8,386
  8,837
  9,308
  9,801
  10,318
  10,859
  11,426
  12,020
  12,642
  13,295
Total equity, $m
  2,106
  2,275
  2,452
  2,635
  2,826
  3,024
  3,230
  3,444
  3,666
  3,898
  4,139
  4,390
  4,652
  4,924
  5,209
  5,506
  5,816
  6,140
  6,478
  6,832
  7,201
  7,588
  7,993
  8,417
  8,860
  9,325
  9,812
  10,322
  10,856
  11,417
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  4,558
  4,925
  5,307
  5,704
  6,117
  6,545
  6,991
  7,454
  7,935
  8,437
  8,959
  9,502
  10,069
  10,659
  11,275
  11,918
  12,589
  13,290
  14,022
  14,787
  15,587
  16,425
  17,301
  18,218
  19,178
  20,184
  21,238
  22,342
  23,498
  24,712
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.120
  0.200
  0.270
  0.330
  0.390
  0.440
  0.480
  0.530
  0.570
  0.600
  0.630
  0.660
  0.690
  0.720
  0.740
  0.770
  0.790
  0.810
  0.830
  0.840
  0.860
  0.880
  0.890
  0.900
  0.920
  0.930
  0.940
  0.950
  0.960
  0.970
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  379
  381
  383
  385
  388
  390
  393
  395
  398
  401
  432
  435
  438
  442
  445
  449
  453
  457
  462
  466
  471
  476
  482
  488
  493
  500
  506
  513
  521
  528
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  254
  271
  289
  308
  327
  348
  369
  390
  413
  437
  423
  448
  475
  503
  532
  562
  594
  627
  662
  698
  736
  775
  816
  860
  905
  953
  1,002
  1,054
  1,109
  1,166
Funds from operations, $m
  633
  652
  672
  693
  715
  738
  761
  786
  811
  838
  855
  883
  913
  945
  977
  1,012
  1,047
  1,085
  1,124
  1,164
  1,207
  1,252
  1,298
  1,347
  1,399
  1,452
  1,509
  1,568
  1,629
  1,694
Change in working capital, $m
  73
  76
  79
  82
  85
  88
  92
  96
  99
  103
  108
  112
  117
  122
  127
  133
  138
  145
  151
  158
  165
  173
  181
  189
  198
  208
  217
  228
  239
  250
Cash from operations, $m
  560
  576
  594
  611
  630
  649
  669
  690
  712
  734
  747
  771
  797
  823
  850
  879
  909
  940
  972
  1,006
  1,042
  1,079
  1,118
  1,158
  1,200
  1,245
  1,291
  1,340
  1,391
  1,444
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -199
  -215
  -232
  -250
  -269
  -289
  -309
  -330
  -352
  -375
  -398
  -423
  -448
  -475
  -503
  -532
  -562
  -594
  -627
  -662
  -698
  -736
  -775
  -816
  -860
  -905
  -953
  -1,002
  -1,054
  -1,109
New CAPEX, $m
  -165
  -173
  -180
  -187
  -195
  -202
  -210
  -219
  -227
  -237
  -246
  -257
  -267
  -279
  -291
  -303
  -317
  -331
  -346
  -361
  -378
  -395
  -414
  -433
  -453
  -475
  -497
  -521
  -546
  -572
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -364
  -388
  -412
  -437
  -464
  -491
  -519
  -549
  -579
  -612
  -644
  -680
  -715
  -754
  -794
  -835
  -879
  -925
  -973
  -1,023
  -1,076
  -1,131
  -1,189
  -1,249
  -1,313
  -1,380
  -1,450
  -1,523
  -1,600
  -1,681
Free cash flow, $m
  197
  188
  181
  174
  166
  158
  150
  141
  132
  123
  103
  92
  81
  69
  57
  44
  30
  15
  0
  -17
  -34
  -52
  -71
  -91
  -113
  -135
  -159
  -183
  -210
  -237
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  190
  198
  205
  214
  222
  231
  240
  249
  259
  270
  281
  292
  305
  318
  331
  346
  361
  377
  394
  412
  431
  451
  471
  493
  517
  541
  567
  594
  622
  652
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  14
  32
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  190
  198
  205
  214
  222
  231
  240
  249
  259
  270
  281
  292
  305
  318
  331
  346
  361
  377
  394
  412
  431
  451
  471
  493
  517
  541
  567
  594
  636
  684
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  387
  386
  386
  387
  388
  389
  390
  391
  392
  393
  383
  384
  386
  387
  388
  389
  391
  392
  394
  395
  397
  399
  400
  402
  404
  406
  408
  410
  427
  447
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -164
  -170
  -176
  -183
  -191
  -198
  -206
  -214
  -223
  -232
  -241
  -251
  -262
  -273
  -285
  -297
  -310
  -324
  -338
  -354
  -370
  -387
  -405
  -424
  -444
  -465
  -487
  -510
  -534
  -560
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  34
  37
  40
  43
  47
  50
  53
  57
  61
  65
  69
  73
  78
  82
  87
  92
  97
  103
  109
  115
  121
  127
  134
  141
  149
  157
  165
  174
  183
  192
Cash available for distribution, $m
  223
  216
  210
  204
  197
  191
  184
  177
  169
  161
  142
  133
  124
  114
  104
  92
  81
  68
  55
  42
  27
  12
  -5
  -22
  -40
  -59
  -78
  -100
  -108
  -113
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  214
  198
  183
  168
  153
  138
  124
  110
  97
  84
  68
  57
  47
  38
  30
  23
  18
  13
  9
  5
  3
  1
  0
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  99.9
  99.8

Dick's Sporting Goods, Inc. is an omni-channel sporting goods retailer offering an assortment of sports equipment, apparel, footwear and accessories in its specialty retail stores primarily in the eastern United States. The Company also owns and operates Golf Galaxy, Field & Stream and other specialty concept stores, and Dick's Team Sports HQ, an all-in-one youth sports digital platform offering free league management services, mobile applications for scheduling, communications and live scorekeeping, custom uniforms and FanWear and access to donations and sponsorships. The Company offers its products through a content-rich e-commerce platform that is integrated with its store network and provides customers with the convenience and expertise of a 24-hour storefront. It offers products to its customers through its retail stores and online. The Company offers hardlines, which include items, such as sporting goods equipment, fitness equipment, golf equipment, and hunting and fishing gear.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 14
Price to Sales 0.5
Price to Book 2.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 5.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 12.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 16.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 4.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 165
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0.2%
Total Debt to Equity 0.3%
Interest Coverage 93
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 7.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.3%
Return On Total Capital 15.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.7%
Return On Equity 15.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.7%
Asset Turnover 2.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 29.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.2%
EBITDA Margin 8.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.9%
Operating Margin 5.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.1%
Pre-Tax Margin 5.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.1%
Net Profit Margin 3.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.4%
Effective Tax Rate 37.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.8%
Payout Ratio 23.7%

DKS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the DKS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $8590 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Dick's Sporting Goods. The default revenue input number comes from 2018 income statement of Dick's Sporting Goods. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our DKS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 8.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for DKS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Dick's Sporting Goods, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Dick's Sporting Goods.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of DKS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 94.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for DKS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 22.8% for Dick's Sporting Goods.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Dick's Sporting Goods. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the DKS stock is equal to 0.4%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for DKS are equal to 23.1%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Dick's Sporting Goods operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for DKS is equal to 10.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1942 million for Dick's Sporting Goods - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 107 million for Dick's Sporting Goods is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Dick's Sporting Goods at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.9 billion.

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