Intrinsic value of Delta Apparel - DLA

Previous Close

$18.50

  Intrinsic Value

$4.23

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-77%

Previous close

$18.50

 
Intrinsic value

$4.23

 
Up/down potential

-77%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of DLA stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  7.60
  7.34
  7.11
  6.90
  6.71
  6.54
  6.38
  6.24
  6.12
  6.01
  5.91
  5.82
  5.73
  5.66
  5.59
  5.54
  5.48
  5.43
  5.39
  5.35
  5.32
  5.28
  5.26
  5.23
  5.21
  5.19
  5.17
  5.15
  5.14
  5.12
Revenue, $m
  414
  445
  476
  509
  543
  579
  616
  654
  694
  736
  779
  825
  872
  921
  973
  1,027
  1,083
  1,142
  1,204
  1,268
  1,335
  1,406
  1,480
  1,557
  1,638
  1,723
  1,812
  1,906
  2,004
  2,106
Variable operating expenses, $m
  394
  422
  452
  483
  515
  549
  583
  620
  657
  697
  734
  777
  821
  868
  916
  967
  1,020
  1,075
  1,133
  1,194
  1,257
  1,324
  1,394
  1,466
  1,543
  1,623
  1,707
  1,795
  1,887
  1,983
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
Total operating expenses, $m
  399
  427
  457
  488
  521
  555
  589
  626
  663
  703
  740
  783
  828
  875
  923
  974
  1,027
  1,082
  1,141
  1,202
  1,265
  1,332
  1,402
  1,474
  1,552
  1,632
  1,716
  1,804
  1,896
  1,993
Operating income, $m
  15
  17
  19
  21
  23
  24
  27
  29
  31
  33
  39
  42
  44
  47
  50
  53
  56
  59
  63
  66
  70
  74
  78
  82
  87
  92
  97
  102
  108
  113
EBITDA, $m
  27
  29
  31
  34
  36
  39
  41
  44
  47
  50
  53
  57
  60
  64
  68
  72
  76
  80
  85
  90
  95
  100
  105
  111
  117
  123
  130
  137
  144
  152
Interest expense (income), $m
  4
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
Earnings before tax, $m
  10
  11
  12
  13
  15
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  26
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  43
  45
  47
  50
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
  68
  71
Tax expense, $m
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
Net income, $m
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  45
  47
  50
  52

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  342
  367
  393
  420
  449
  478
  509
  540
  573
  608
  644
  681
  720
  761
  803
  848
  894
  943
  994
  1,047
  1,103
  1,161
  1,222
  1,286
  1,353
  1,423
  1,497
  1,574
  1,655
  1,739
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  342
  367
  393
  420
  449
  478
  509
  540
  573
  608
  644
  681
  720
  761
  803
  848
  894
  943
  994
  1,047
  1,103
  1,161
  1,222
  1,286
  1,353
  1,423
  1,497
  1,574
  1,655
  1,739
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.211
  1.213
  1.211
  1.212
  1.209
  1.211
  1.210
  1.211
  1.211
  1.211
  1.210
  1.211
  1.211
  1.210
  1.212
  1.211
  1.211
  1.211
  1.211
  1.211
  1.210
  1.211
  1.211
  1.211
  1.211
  1.211
  1.210
  1.211
  1.211
  1.211
Average production assets, $m
  72
  77
  82
  88
  94
  100
  107
  113
  120
  127
  135
  143
  151
  159
  168
  178
  187
  198
  208
  219
  231
  243
  256
  269
  283
  298
  314
  330
  347
  364
Working capital, $m
  173
  186
  199
  213
  227
  242
  257
  273
  290
  308
  326
  345
  365
  385
  407
  429
  453
  477
  503
  530
  558
  588
  619
  651
  685
  720
  758
  797
  838
  880
Total debt, $m
  108
  121
  135
  148
  163
  178
  193
  209
  226
  244
  262
  281
  301
  322
  343
  366
  390
  414
  440
  467
  496
  525
  556
  589
  623
  659
  696
  735
  776
  820
Total liabilities, $m
  174
  187
  200
  214
  228
  243
  259
  275
  292
  309
  328
  347
  367
  387
  409
  432
  455
  480
  506
  533
  561
  591
  622
  655
  689
  724
  762
  801
  842
  885
Total equity, $m
  168
  180
  193
  206
  220
  235
  250
  265
  282
  298
  316
  334
  354
  374
  395
  416
  439
  463
  488
  514
  541
  570
  600
  631
  664
  699
  735
  773
  812
  854
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  342
  367
  393
  420
  448
  478
  509
  540
  574
  607
  644
  681
  721
  761
  804
  848
  894
  943
  994
  1,047
  1,102
  1,161
  1,222
  1,286
  1,353
  1,423
  1,497
  1,574
  1,654
  1,739
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.650
  0.670
  0.700
  0.720
  0.740
  0.760
  0.770
  0.790
  0.800
  0.820
  0.830
  0.840
  0.850
  0.860
  0.870
  0.880
  0.890
  0.890
  0.900
  0.910
  0.920
  0.920
  0.930
  0.930
  0.940
  0.940
  0.950
  0.950
  0.960
  0.960
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  45
  47
  50
  52
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  39
Funds from operations, $m
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  31
  32
  33
  35
  37
  39
  42
  44
  46
  49
  52
  54
  57
  60
  64
  67
  70
  74
  78
  82
  86
  91
Change in working capital, $m
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
Cash from operations, $m
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  48
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
New CAPEX, $m
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -55
Free cash flow, $m
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  5
  4
  4
  4
  3
  3
  3
  2
  2
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  17
  17
  17
  18
  17
  18
  19
  18
  19
  20
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  36
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
Discount rate, %
  7.10
  7.46
  7.83
  8.22
  8.63
  9.06
  9.51
  9.99
  10.49
  11.01
  11.57
  12.14
  12.75
  13.39
  14.06
  14.76
  15.50
  16.27
  17.09
  17.94
  18.84
  19.78
  20.77
  21.81
  22.90
  24.04
  25.25
  26.51
  27.83
  29.22
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  96.6
  93.9
  91.6
  89.6
  88.0
  86.6
  85.4
  84.5
  83.8
  83.2
  83.2
  83.2
  83.2
  83.2
  83.2
  83.2
  83.2
  83.2
  83.2
  83.2
  83.2
  83.2
  83.2
  83.2
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Delta Apparel, Inc. is an apparel design, marketing, manufacturing and sourcing company. The Company operates through two segments: branded and basics. The branded segment consists of its business units, which are focused on specialized apparel garments and headwear. Its products are marketed under its lifestyle brands of Salt Life, Soffe and COAST, as well as other labels. The basics segment consists of its business units focused on garment styles and includes its Delta Activewear (which includes Delta Catalog and FunTees) and Art Gun business units. It markets, distributes and manufactures knit apparel under the main brands of Delta Pro Weight and Delta Magnum Weight. It also manufactures private label products for branded sportswear companies, trendy regional brands, retailers and sports licensed apparel marketers. It specializes in the design, merchandising, sales and marketing of a range of casual and athletic products for men, women, juniors, youth and children.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Delta Apparel (DLA)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 12.3
Price to Sales 0.4
Price to Book 0.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 9.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 19.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -9.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -41.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -4.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 54.5%
Total Debt to Equity 59.6%
Interest Coverage 4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.9%
Return On Total Capital 4.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.6%
Return On Equity 7.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.3%
Asset Turnover 1.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 21%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.9%
EBITDA Margin 6.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.7%
Operating Margin 4.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 2.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.6%
Net Profit Margin 2.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.3%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.7%
Payout Ratio 0%

DLA stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the DLA stock intrinsic value calculation we used $385.082 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Delta Apparel. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Delta Apparel. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our DLA stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 7.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.1%, whose default value for DLA is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Delta Apparel, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Delta Apparel.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of DLA stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 95.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $5 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for DLA stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Delta Apparel.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Delta Apparel. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the DLA stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for DLA are equal to 17.3%.

Life of production assets of 9.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Delta Apparel operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for DLA is equal to 41.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $155.887 million for Delta Apparel - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 7.08 million for Delta Apparel is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Delta Apparel at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ DTG2Go Acquires SSI Digital Print Services   [Oct-08-18 03:58PM  GlobeNewswire]
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▶ Delta Apparel Appoints New Member to Board of Directors   [Aug-07-18 04:00PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Delta Apparel: Fiscal 3Q Earnings Snapshot   [04:08PM  Associated Press]
▶ Top Ranked Value Stocks to Buy for July 2nd   [Jul-02-18 10:27AM  Zacks]
▶ Salt Life Lager Hits Shelves in Florida   [Jun-29-18 09:23AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ DTG2Go Subsidiary Adds New Digital Print Location   [Jun-22-18 12:52PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ 5 Top-Ranked Small-Cap Stocks on Sale   [11:25AM  InvestorPlace]
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▶ Top Ranked Momentum Stocks to Buy for May 14th   [May-14-18 09:22AM  Zacks]
▶ Top Ranked Momentum Stocks to Buy for May 9th   [May-09-18 10:31AM  Zacks]
▶ Delta Apparel: Fiscal 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-07-18 05:46PM  Associated Press]
▶ Delta Apparel Q2 Earnings Preview   [07:44AM  Benzinga]
▶ Salt Life Launches Branded Craft Beer Line   [Mar-13-18 07:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Art Gun Acquires DTG2Go Business   [Mar-12-18 07:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Delta Apparel reports 1Q loss   [Feb-05-18 04:20PM  Associated Press]
▶ Delta Apparel Announces Preliminary First Quarter Results   [Jan-08-18 07:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Delta Apparel, Inc. to Present at ICR Conference 2018   [Jan-03-18 04:35PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Delta Apparel posts 4Q profit   [Nov-28-17 04:15PM  Associated Press]
▶ Delta Apparel Share Repurchase Authorization Increased   [Sep-18-17 09:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Delta Apparel posts 3Q profit   [Aug-01-17 11:18PM  Associated Press]
▶ Delta Apparel posts 3Q profit   [06:18PM  Associated Press]
▶ MOVES-DLA Piper hires ex-Fed attorney Silva   [Jun-01-17 07:51PM  Reuters]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Delta Apparel, Inc. : May 11, 2017   [May-11-17 04:30PM  Capital Cube]

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