Intrinsic value of DLH Holdings - DLHC

Previous Close

$5.17

  Intrinsic Value

$21.80

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+322%

Previous close

$5.17

 
Intrinsic value

$21.80

 
Up/down potential

+322%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of DLHC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  23.50
  21.65
  19.99
  18.49
  17.14
  15.92
  14.83
  13.85
  12.96
  12.17
  11.45
  10.81
  10.22
  9.70
  9.23
  8.81
  8.43
  8.09
  7.78
  7.50
  7.25
  7.02
  6.82
  6.64
  6.48
  6.33
  6.20
  6.08
  5.97
  5.87
Revenue, $m
  143
  174
  208
  247
  289
  335
  385
  439
  495
  556
  619
  686
  756
  830
  906
  986
  1,069
  1,156
  1,246
  1,339
  1,436
  1,537
  1,642
  1,751
  1,864
  1,982
  2,105
  2,233
  2,366
  2,505
Variable operating expenses, $m
  125
  151
  180
  212
  248
  287
  329
  374
  422
  473
  522
  579
  638
  700
  765
  832
  902
  975
  1,051
  1,129
  1,211
  1,296
  1,385
  1,477
  1,572
  1,672
  1,776
  1,883
  1,996
  2,113
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  13
  13
Total operating expenses, $m
  132
  158
  187
  220
  256
  295
  337
  382
  431
  482
  531
  588
  647
  709
  775
  842
  912
  985
  1,062
  1,140
  1,222
  1,307
  1,397
  1,489
  1,584
  1,684
  1,789
  1,896
  2,009
  2,126
Operating income, $m
  11
  16
  21
  27
  33
  40
  48
  56
  65
  74
  88
  98
  109
  120
  132
  144
  157
  171
  184
  199
  214
  229
  245
  262
  280
  298
  317
  337
  357
  379
EBITDA, $m
  16
  21
  27
  33
  40
  47
  55
  64
  73
  83
  93
  104
  115
  127
  139
  152
  165
  179
  194
  209
  225
  241
  258
  276
  294
  313
  333
  354
  375
  398
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  2
  4
  6
  8
  11
  14
  17
  21
  25
  29
  33
  37
  42
  47
  52
  58
  64
  70
  76
  82
  89
  96
  103
  110
  118
  126
  135
  143
  152
  162
Earnings before tax, $m
  10
  12
  15
  19
  22
  26
  31
  35
  40
  46
  55
  61
  67
  73
  80
  87
  94
  101
  109
  117
  125
  134
  143
  152
  162
  172
  182
  193
  205
  217
Tax expense, $m
  3
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  10
  11
  12
  15
  16
  18
  20
  22
  23
  25
  27
  29
  32
  34
  36
  39
  41
  44
  46
  49
  52
  55
  59
Net income, $m
  7
  9
  11
  14
  16
  19
  22
  26
  29
  33
  40
  44
  49
  53
  58
  63
  68
  74
  79
  85
  91
  98
  104
  111
  118
  125
  133
  141
  150
  158

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  86
  104
  125
  148
  174
  202
  231
  264
  298
  334
  372
  412
  455
  499
  545
  593
  643
  695
  749
  805
  863
  924
  987
  1,052
  1,120
  1,191
  1,265
  1,342
  1,422
  1,506
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  86
  104
  125
  148
  174
  202
  231
  264
  298
  334
  372
  412
  455
  499
  545
  593
  643
  695
  749
  805
  863
  924
  987
  1,052
  1,120
  1,191
  1,265
  1,342
  1,422
  1,506
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.663
  1.673
  1.664
  1.669
  1.661
  1.658
  1.667
  1.663
  1.661
  1.665
  1.664
  1.665
  1.662
  1.663
  1.662
  1.663
  1.663
  1.663
  1.664
  1.663
  1.664
  1.663
  1.664
  1.664
  1.664
  1.664
  1.664
  1.664
  1.664
  1.663
Average production assets, $m
  27
  33
  39
  47
  55
  63
  73
  83
  94
  105
  117
  130
  143
  157
  171
  186
  202
  218
  235
  253
  271
  291
  310
  331
  352
  375
  398
  422
  447
  473
Working capital, $m
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -53
Total debt, $m
  14
  23
  34
  45
  57
  71
  85
  101
  117
  135
  154
  173
  194
  215
  237
  261
  285
  310
  336
  364
  392
  422
  452
  484
  517
  552
  587
  625
  664
  704
Total liabilities, $m
  42
  51
  61
  72
  85
  98
  113
  128
  145
  162
  181
  200
  221
  242
  265
  288
  312
  338
  364
  391
  419
  449
  480
  511
  545
  579
  615
  652
  691
  732
Total equity, $m
  44
  54
  64
  76
  89
  104
  119
  135
  153
  172
  191
  212
  234
  256
  280
  305
  330
  357
  385
  414
  444
  475
  507
  541
  576
  612
  650
  690
  731
  774
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  86
  105
  125
  148
  174
  202
  232
  263
  298
  334
  372
  412
  455
  498
  545
  593
  642
  695
  749
  805
  863
  924
  987
  1,052
  1,121
  1,191
  1,265
  1,342
  1,422
  1,506
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.330
  0.440
  0.520
  0.590
  0.640
  0.680
  0.720
  0.740
  0.770
  0.790
  0.800
  0.820
  0.830
  0.840
  0.850
  0.860
  0.860
  0.870
  0.870
  0.880
  0.880
  0.890
  0.890
  0.890
  0.900
  0.900
  0.900
  0.910
  0.910
  0.910
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.514
  0.514
  0.514
  0.514
  0.514
  0.514
  0.514
  0.514
  0.514
  0.514
  0.514
  0.514
  0.514
  0.514
  0.514
  0.514
  0.514
  0.514
  0.514
  0.514
  0.514
  0.514
  0.514
  0.514
  0.514
  0.514
  0.514
  0.514
  0.514
  0.514

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  7
  9
  11
  14
  16
  19
  22
  26
  29
  33
  40
  44
  49
  53
  58
  63
  68
  74
  79
  85
  91
  98
  104
  111
  118
  125
  133
  141
  150
  158
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
Funds from operations, $m
  12
  14
  17
  20
  23
  26
  30
  33
  37
  42
  45
  50
  55
  60
  65
  71
  77
  83
  89
  95
  102
  109
  117
  124
  132
  141
  149
  158
  168
  177
Change in working capital, $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
Cash from operations, $m
  13
  15
  18
  20
  24
  27
  31
  34
  39
  43
  46
  51
  56
  61
  67
  72
  78
  84
  91
  97
  104
  111
  119
  127
  135
  143
  152
  161
  170
  180
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
New CAPEX, $m
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -18
  -20
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
Free cash flow, $m
  7
  8
  10
  12
  14
  16
  19
  21
  24
  28
  30
  34
  38
  42
  46
  50
  55
  60
  65
  70
  76
  81
  87
  93
  100
  107
  113
  121
  128
  136
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  13
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  16
  18
  20
  23
  26
  30
  33
  37
  41
  45
  49
  53
  58
  63
  68
  74
  79
  85
  91
  98
  104
  111
  118
  125
  133
  141
  149
  158
  167
  177
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -8
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  8
  8
  9
  11
  13
  15
  18
  21
  23
  27
  29
  33
  36
  40
  45
  49
  54
  58
  63
  69
  74
  80
  86
  92
  98
  105
  111
  118
  126
  134
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  7
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  14
  14
  14
  13
  12
  12
  11
  10
  9
  8
  7
  6
  5
  4
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  97.9
  97.1
  97.1
  97.1
  97.1
  97.1
  97.1
  97.1
  97.1
  97.1
  97.1
  97.1
  97.1
  97.1
  97.1
  97.1
  97.1
  97.1
  97.1
  97.1
  97.1
  97.1
  97.1
  97.1
  97.1
  97.1
  97.1
  97.1
  97.1
  97.1

DLH Holdings Corp. provides healthcare and social services in the United States. It offers defense and veteransÂ’ health solutions, including case management, physical and behavioral health examinations, and medical administration and logistics services. The company also provides a range of human services and solutions, which consists of educational and environmental support services for the underserved children and youth comprising health, nutritional, parental, and behavioral services; and IT system architecture design, migration plan, and ongoing maintenance services. In addition, it offers public health and life sciences services, such as disease prevention; and health promotion to underserved and hard to reach at-risk communities through development of strategic communication campaigns, research on emerging trends, health informatics analyses, and application of best practices. The company offers its services to government agencies, including the Department of Veteran Affairs, the Department of Health and Human Services, the Department of Defense, and other government clients. The company was formerly known as TeamStaff, Inc. and changed its name to DLH Holdings Corp. in June 2012. DLH Holdings Corp. was founded in 1969 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  DLH Holdings (DLHC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 0
Price to Sales 0
Price to Book 0
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 0
Price to Free Cash Flow 0
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -100%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Return On Total Capital 0%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Return On Equity 0%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Asset Turnover 0
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 0%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Operating Margin 0%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Pre-Tax Margin 0%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Net Profit Margin 0%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

DLHC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the DLHC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $115.662 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by DLH Holdings. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of DLH Holdings. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our DLHC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 23.5% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for DLHC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of DLH Holdings, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of DLH Holdings.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of DLHC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 87.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $7 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for DLHC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 24.4% for DLH Holdings.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for DLH Holdings. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the DLHC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for DLHC are equal to 18.9%.

Life of production assets of 24.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in DLH Holdings operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for DLHC is equal to -2.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $35.855 million for DLH Holdings - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 11.899 million for DLH Holdings is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of DLH Holdings at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

COMPANY NEWS

▶ DLH Awarded Navy Healthcare Services Contract   [Aug-14-18 08:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ DLH Holdings Corp. to Host Earnings Call   [Aug-06-18 09:00AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ DLH to Announce Third Quarter FY18 Financial Results   [Jul-25-18 08:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Best Cheap Stocks To Buy   [Jun-08-18 10:02AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ DLH Reports Second Quarter Fiscal Year 2018 Results   [May-15-18 04:15PM  PR Newswire]
▶ DLH to Announce Second Quarter FY18 Financial Results   [May-01-18 08:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Why DLH Holdings Corp (NASDAQ:DLHC) Could Be A Buy   [Mar-01-18 06:03PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ DLH Holdings Corp. to Host Earnings Call   [Feb-06-18 08:45AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ DLH to Announce First Quarter FY18 Financial Results   [Jan-22-18 08:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Top Cheap Stocks This Week   [Dec-26-17 08:02AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Should You Buy DLH Holdings Corp (DLHC) Now?   [Nov-13-17 05:05PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ DLH to Exhibit at the 2017 APHA Annual Meeting and Expo   [Oct-31-17 08:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ DLH to Announce Third Quarter FY17 Financial Results   [Jul-25-17 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ DLH Awarded 2017 FedHealthIT Innovation Award   [Jun-13-17 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to DLH Holdings Corp. : May 23, 2017   [May-23-17 12:37PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to DLH Holdings Corp. : May 9, 2017   [May-09-17 04:32PM  Capital Cube]
▶ DLH to Announce Second Quarter FY17 Financial Results   [Apr-26-17 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ DLH Awarded U.S. Navys Clinical Preceptorship Program   [Mar-28-17 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ DLH to Present at the Roth Conference   [Mar-01-17 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ DLH to Announce First Quarter FY17 Financial Results   [Jan-25-17 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ DLH to Present at the Noble Growth Conference on January 30   [Jan-17-17 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ DLH Appoints Helene Fisher as President of DLH Danya   [Dec-14-16 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ DLH to Announce Fourth Quarter FY16 Financial Results   [Nov-21-16 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ DLH Announces Results of Rights Offering   [Sep-30-16 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ DLH Announces Commencement of Rights Offering   [Aug-19-16 08:01AM  GlobeNewswire]

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