Intrinsic value of Digimarc - DMRC

Previous Close

$20.47

  Intrinsic Value

$1.58

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-92%

Previous close

$20.47

 
Intrinsic value

$1.58

 
Up/down potential

-92%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of DMRC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  26
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
  45
  47
  50
  52
  54
  57
  60
  62
  65
  68
  72
  75
  79
  83
Variable operating expenses, $m
  51
  53
  54
  55
  57
  59
  61
  63
  65
  68
  70
  73
  76
  79
  82
  86
  90
  94
  98
  102
  107
  112
  117
  123
  129
  135
  141
  148
  155
  163
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  51
  53
  54
  55
  57
  59
  61
  63
  65
  68
  70
  73
  76
  79
  82
  86
  90
  94
  98
  102
  107
  112
  117
  123
  129
  135
  141
  148
  155
  163
Operating income, $m
  -26
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -80
EBITDA, $m
  -24
  -25
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -77
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
Earnings before tax, $m
  -26
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -77
  -81
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -26
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -77
  -81

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  26
  27
  28
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  74
  77
  81
  85
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  26
  27
  28
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  74
  77
  81
  85
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.000
  0.963
  0.964
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  0.971
  0.971
  0.972
  0.974
  0.974
  0.976
  0.977
  0.978
  0.957
  0.959
  0.980
  0.981
  0.964
  0.983
  0.984
  0.969
  0.970
  0.971
  0.973
  0.974
  0.975
  0.976
Average production assets, $m
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
Working capital, $m
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
Total debt, $m
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
Total liabilities, $m
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
Total equity, $m
  20
  21
  21
  22
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
  62
  65
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  26
  27
  28
  29
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  35
  37
  38
  39
  41
  43
  44
  47
  48
  51
  54
  56
  59
  61
  64
  67
  71
  73
  77
  81
  85
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.010
  0.020
  0.020
  0.030
  0.040
  0.050
  0.060
  0.060
  0.070
  0.080
  0.090
  0.100
  0.110
  0.120
  0.120
  0.130
  0.140
  0.150
  0.150
  0.160
  0.170
  0.170
  0.180
  0.180
  0.190
  0.200
  0.200
  0.210
  0.210
  0.210
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.765
  0.765
  0.765
  0.765
  0.765
  0.765
  0.765
  0.765
  0.765
  0.765
  0.765
  0.765
  0.765
  0.765
  0.765
  0.765
  0.765
  0.765
  0.765
  0.765
  0.765
  0.765
  0.765
  0.765
  0.765
  0.765
  0.765
  0.765
  0.765
  0.765

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -26
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -77
  -81
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
Funds from operations, $m
  -24
  -25
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -74
  -78
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
Cash from operations, $m
  -24
  -25
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -78
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
New CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
Free cash flow, $m
  -25
  -26
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -83
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  26
  27
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  35
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  53
  55
  58
  60
  63
  66
  69
  73
  76
  80
  84
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  26
  27
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  35
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  51
  54
  56
  59
  61
  64
  67
  70
  74
  77
  81
  85
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -26
  -27
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -84
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  63
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  38
  -26
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -82
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  36
  -23
  -23
  -22
  -22
  -21
  -20
  -19
  -18
  -17
  -16
  -15
  -14
  -13
  -12
  -11
  -10
  -9
  -8
  -6
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  68.8
  47.5
  32.8
  22.6
  15.5
  10.7
  7.3
  5.0
  3.5
  2.4
  1.6
  1.1
  0.8
  0.5
  0.4
  0.3
  0.2
  0.1
  0.1
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  0.0
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Digimarc Corporation (Digimarc) enables governments and enterprises to give digital identities to media and objects that computers can sense and recognize. The Company's Digimarc Discover, Digimarc Barcode and Intuitive Computing Platform are designed to optimize the identification of consumer brand impressions, facilitating mobile-centric shopping. The Company operates through media management solutions segment. The Company's platform includes means to embed Digimarc Barcodes, invisible and inaudible barcode-like information that is recognizable by smartphones, industrial scanners, and other computer interfaces into various forms of media content, including consumer product packaging. Its Digimarc Barcodes has a range of applications, including facilitating scanning of products at retail checkout, as well as engagement with smartphone-equipped consumers. The Digimarc Barcode allows automatic identification of media without visible computer codes, such as traditional barcodes.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Digimarc (DMRC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -9.8
Price to Sales 9.8
Price to Book 2.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -15.4
Price to Free Cash Flow -12.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 0%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 50%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.5
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -32.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -30.8%
Return On Total Capital -35.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -33.8%
Return On Equity -35.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -33.8%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 59.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 61.2%
EBITDA Margin -90.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -71.2%
Operating Margin -100%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -79.8%
Pre-Tax Margin -100%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -79.8%
Net Profit Margin -100%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -81.1%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.2%
Payout Ratio 0%

DMRC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the DMRC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $25.213 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Digimarc. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Digimarc. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our DMRC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for DMRC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Digimarc, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Digimarc.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of DMRC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 200%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for DMRC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Digimarc.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Digimarc. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the DMRC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for DMRC are equal to 30.6%.

Life of production assets of 8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Digimarc operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for DMRC is equal to 14.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $82.347 million for Digimarc - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 11.88 million for Digimarc is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Digimarc at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.2 billion.

RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating
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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Digimarc: 3Q Earnings Snapshot   [05:05AM  Associated Press]
▶ Digimarc Reports Third Quarter 2018 Financial Results   [Oct-30-18 08:22PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Digimarc: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [05:39PM  Associated Press]
▶ Digimarc Announces Support for SmartLabel®   [May-14-18 01:00PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Digimarc Sets May 2018 Financial Conference Schedule   [May-11-18 08:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Digimarc Reports First Quarter 2018 Financial Results   [Apr-25-18 04:05PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Digimarc reports 4Q loss   [Feb-21-18 05:17PM  Associated Press]
▶ H-E-B piloting self-checkout mobile app in two San Antonio stores   [Feb-20-18 07:28AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Digimarc Recognized as Technology Leader   [Dec-20-17 03:30PM  PR Newswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Digimarc Corp. : December 14, 2017   [Dec-14-17 01:13PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Digimarc Corp. : November 21, 2017   [Nov-21-17 11:37AM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Digimarc Corp. : November 9, 2017   [Nov-09-17 12:34PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Digimarc reports 3Q loss   [Oct-26-17 06:21PM  Associated Press]
▶ Digimarc CORP to Host Earnings Call   [12:35PM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Digimarc reports 2Q loss   [Jul-26-17 11:12PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Digimarc Corp. : July 24, 2017   [Jul-24-17 03:24PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Digimarc Corp. : July 14, 2017   [Jul-14-17 01:58PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Digimarc Corp. : June 20, 2017   [Jun-20-17 02:53PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Maker Of Invisible Bar Codes Surges On Amazon-Whole Foods Deal   [Jun-19-17 04:47PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Digimarc Corp. : May 25, 2017   [May-25-17 12:38PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Digimarc Sets Upcoming Financial Conference Schedule   [May-09-17 08:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Digimarc Corp. : May 1, 2017   [May-01-17 03:51PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Digimarc reports 1Q loss   [Apr-26-17 05:42PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Digimarc Corp. : April 21, 2017   [Apr-21-17 02:52PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Digimarc Corp. : April 5, 2017   [Apr-05-17 04:38PM  Capital Cube]

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