Intrinsic value of Dun&Bradstreet - DNB

Previous Close

$142.36

  Intrinsic Value

$50.39

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-65%

Previous close

$142.36

 
Intrinsic value

$50.39

 
Up/down potential

-65%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of DNB stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 5.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  9.60
  9.14
  8.73
  8.35
  8.02
  7.72
  7.44
  7.20
  6.98
  6.78
  6.60
  6.44
  6.30
  6.17
  6.05
  5.95
  5.85
  5.77
  5.69
  5.62
  5.56
  5.50
  5.45
  5.41
  5.37
  5.33
  5.30
  5.27
  5.24
  5.22
Revenue, $m
  1,910
  2,084
  2,266
  2,456
  2,652
  2,857
  3,070
  3,291
  3,520
  3,759
  4,008
  4,266
  4,534
  4,814
  5,106
  5,409
  5,726
  6,056
  6,401
  6,760
  7,136
  7,529
  7,940
  8,369
  8,818
  9,288
  9,780
  10,295
  10,835
  11,400
Variable operating expenses, $m
  722
  776
  833
  893
  954
  1,019
  1,085
  1,154
  1,227
  1,301
  1,256
  1,337
  1,422
  1,509
  1,601
  1,696
  1,795
  1,899
  2,007
  2,119
  2,237
  2,360
  2,489
  2,624
  2,764
  2,912
  3,066
  3,227
  3,397
  3,574
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  721
  736
  753
  769
  786
  803
  821
  839
  858
  876
  896
  915
  936
  956
  977
  999
  1,021
  1,043
  1,066
  1,089
  1,113
  1,138
  1,163
  1,189
  1,215
  1,241
  1,269
  1,297
  1,325
  1,354
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,443
  1,512
  1,586
  1,662
  1,740
  1,822
  1,906
  1,993
  2,085
  2,177
  2,152
  2,252
  2,358
  2,465
  2,578
  2,695
  2,816
  2,942
  3,073
  3,208
  3,350
  3,498
  3,652
  3,813
  3,979
  4,153
  4,335
  4,524
  4,722
  4,928
Operating income, $m
  468
  572
  680
  794
  912
  1,035
  1,164
  1,297
  1,436
  1,582
  1,856
  2,013
  2,177
  2,349
  2,528
  2,715
  2,910
  3,114
  3,328
  3,552
  3,786
  4,031
  4,288
  4,557
  4,839
  5,135
  5,445
  5,771
  6,113
  6,472
EBITDA, $m
  636
  744
  857
  975
  1,098
  1,226
  1,359
  1,498
  1,643
  1,793
  1,950
  2,114
  2,285
  2,463
  2,649
  2,843
  3,046
  3,258
  3,479
  3,711
  3,954
  4,209
  4,475
  4,755
  5,047
  5,355
  5,677
  6,015
  6,369
  6,741
Interest expense (income), $m
  52
  91
  44
  56
  69
  82
  95
  109
  124
  139
  155
  172
  189
  207
  225
  245
  265
  286
  308
  331
  354
  379
  405
  432
  461
  491
  522
  554
  588
  624
  661
Earnings before tax, $m
  377
  528
  624
  725
  830
  940
  1,054
  1,173
  1,297
  1,426
  1,684
  1,824
  1,971
  2,123
  2,283
  2,450
  2,624
  2,807
  2,997
  3,197
  3,406
  3,625
  3,855
  4,096
  4,348
  4,613
  4,891
  5,183
  5,489
  5,811
Tax expense, $m
  102
  142
  169
  196
  224
  254
  285
  317
  350
  385
  455
  492
  532
  573
  616
  661
  709
  758
  809
  863
  920
  979
  1,041
  1,106
  1,174
  1,246
  1,321
  1,399
  1,482
  1,569
Net income, $m
  275
  385
  456
  529
  606
  686
  769
  856
  947
  1,041
  1,229
  1,332
  1,439
  1,550
  1,667
  1,788
  1,916
  2,049
  2,188
  2,334
  2,487
  2,647
  2,814
  2,990
  3,174
  3,368
  3,571
  3,784
  4,007
  4,242

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,717
  2,965
  3,224
  3,493
  3,773
  4,064
  4,367
  4,681
  5,008
  5,347
  5,701
  6,068
  6,450
  6,848
  7,263
  7,694
  8,145
  8,614
  9,105
  9,616
  10,151
  10,710
  11,294
  11,904
  12,543
  13,212
  13,912
  14,645
  15,412
  16,216
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,717
  2,965
  3,224
  3,493
  3,773
  4,064
  4,367
  4,681
  5,008
  5,347
  5,701
  6,068
  6,450
  6,848
  7,263
  7,694
  8,145
  8,614
  9,105
  9,616
  10,151
  10,710
  11,294
  11,904
  12,543
  13,212
  13,912
  14,645
  15,412
  16,216
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.703
  0.703
  0.703
  0.703
  0.703
  0.703
  0.703
  0.703
  0.703
  0.703
  0.703
  0.703
  0.703
  0.703
  0.703
  0.703
  0.703
  0.703
  0.703
  0.703
  0.703
  0.703
  0.703
  0.703
  0.703
  0.703
  0.703
  0.703
  0.703
  0.703
Average production assets, $m
  668
  730
  793
  859
  928
  1,000
  1,074
  1,152
  1,232
  1,316
  1,403
  1,493
  1,587
  1,685
  1,787
  1,893
  2,004
  2,120
  2,240
  2,366
  2,498
  2,635
  2,779
  2,929
  3,086
  3,251
  3,423
  3,603
  3,792
  3,990
Working capital, $m
  -403
  -440
  -478
  -518
  -560
  -603
  -648
  -694
  -743
  -793
  -846
  -900
  -957
  -1,016
  -1,077
  -1,141
  -1,208
  -1,278
  -1,351
  -1,426
  -1,506
  -1,589
  -1,675
  -1,766
  -1,861
  -1,960
  -2,064
  -2,172
  -2,286
  -2,405
Total debt, $m
  815
  1,038
  1,271
  1,514
  1,766
  2,028
  2,300
  2,583
  2,877
  3,183
  3,500
  3,831
  4,175
  4,533
  4,906
  5,295
  5,700
  6,123
  6,564
  7,025
  7,506
  8,009
  8,534
  9,084
  9,659
  10,261
  10,891
  11,550
  12,241
  12,964
Total liabilities, $m
  2,445
  2,668
  2,901
  3,144
  3,396
  3,658
  3,930
  4,213
  4,507
  4,813
  5,131
  5,461
  5,805
  6,163
  6,536
  6,925
  7,330
  7,753
  8,194
  8,655
  9,136
  9,639
  10,164
  10,714
  11,289
  11,891
  12,521
  13,180
  13,871
  14,595
Total equity, $m
  272
  296
  322
  349
  377
  406
  437
  468
  501
  535
  570
  607
  645
  685
  726
  769
  814
  861
  910
  962
  1,015
  1,071
  1,129
  1,190
  1,254
  1,321
  1,391
  1,464
  1,541
  1,622
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,717
  2,964
  3,223
  3,493
  3,773
  4,064
  4,367
  4,681
  5,008
  5,348
  5,701
  6,068
  6,450
  6,848
  7,262
  7,694
  8,144
  8,614
  9,104
  9,617
  10,151
  10,710
  11,293
  11,904
  12,543
  13,212
  13,912
  14,644
  15,412
  16,217
Debt-to-equity ratio
  3.000
  3.500
  3.940
  4.330
  4.680
  4.990
  5.270
  5.520
  5.740
  5.950
  6.140
  6.310
  6.470
  6.620
  6.760
  6.880
  7.000
  7.110
  7.210
  7.300
  7.390
  7.480
  7.560
  7.630
  7.700
  7.770
  7.830
  7.890
  7.940
  7.990
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  275
  385
  456
  529
  606
  686
  769
  856
  947
  1,041
  1,229
  1,332
  1,439
  1,550
  1,667
  1,788
  1,916
  2,049
  2,188
  2,334
  2,487
  2,647
  2,814
  2,990
  3,174
  3,368
  3,571
  3,784
  4,007
  4,242
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  168
  172
  176
  181
  186
  190
  195
  201
  206
  212
  95
  101
  107
  114
  121
  128
  135
  143
  151
  160
  169
  178
  188
  198
  209
  220
  231
  243
  256
  270
Funds from operations, $m
  443
  557
  632
  710
  792
  877
  965
  1,057
  1,153
  1,253
  1,324
  1,432
  1,546
  1,664
  1,787
  1,916
  2,051
  2,192
  2,339
  2,494
  2,655
  2,825
  3,002
  3,188
  3,383
  3,587
  3,802
  4,027
  4,263
  4,512
Change in working capital, $m
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -99
  -104
  -109
  -114
  -119
Cash from operations, $m
  479
  594
  671
  750
  833
  920
  1,010
  1,104
  1,201
  1,303
  1,376
  1,487
  1,602
  1,723
  1,849
  1,980
  2,118
  2,262
  2,412
  2,570
  2,735
  2,907
  3,089
  3,279
  3,478
  3,687
  3,906
  4,136
  4,377
  4,631
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -41
  -45
  -49
  -54
  -58
  -63
  -68
  -73
  -78
  -83
  -89
  -95
  -101
  -107
  -114
  -121
  -128
  -135
  -143
  -151
  -160
  -169
  -178
  -188
  -198
  -209
  -220
  -231
  -243
  -256
New CAPEX, $m
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -84
  -87
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -102
  -106
  -111
  -116
  -121
  -126
  -132
  -137
  -144
  -150
  -157
  -165
  -172
  -180
  -189
  -198
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -99
  -106
  -113
  -120
  -127
  -135
  -142
  -150
  -158
  -167
  -176
  -185
  -195
  -205
  -216
  -227
  -239
  -251
  -264
  -277
  -292
  -306
  -322
  -338
  -355
  -374
  -392
  -411
  -432
  -454
Free cash flow, $m
  379
  488
  558
  630
  706
  785
  868
  954
  1,043
  1,136
  1,200
  1,302
  1,408
  1,518
  1,633
  1,753
  1,879
  2,011
  2,148
  2,292
  2,443
  2,601
  2,767
  2,940
  3,123
  3,314
  3,514
  3,724
  3,945
  4,177
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -863
  223
  233
  242
  252
  262
  272
  283
  294
  306
  318
  331
  344
  358
  373
  389
  405
  423
  441
  461
  481
  503
  526
  550
  575
  602
  630
  660
  691
  724
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  824
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -39
  223
  233
  242
  252
  262
  272
  283
  294
  306
  318
  331
  344
  358
  373
  389
  405
  423
  441
  461
  481
  503
  526
  550
  575
  602
  630
  660
  691
  724
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  340
  711
  790
  873
  958
  1,047
  1,140
  1,237
  1,337
  1,442
  1,518
  1,632
  1,752
  1,876
  2,006
  2,142
  2,284
  2,433
  2,590
  2,753
  2,924
  3,104
  3,292
  3,490
  3,698
  3,915
  4,144
  4,384
  4,636
  4,900
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -1,099
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -80
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -759
  687
  765
  846
  930
  1,018
  1,110
  1,205
  1,305
  1,408
  1,483
  1,596
  1,713
  1,836
  1,965
  2,099
  2,239
  2,387
  2,541
  2,702
  2,871
  3,048
  3,234
  3,429
  3,634
  3,848
  4,074
  4,310
  4,559
  4,820
Discount rate, %
  12.60
  13.23
  13.89
  14.59
  15.32
  16.08
  16.89
  17.73
  18.62
  19.55
  20.52
  21.55
  22.63
  23.76
  24.95
  26.19
  27.50
  28.88
  30.32
  31.84
  33.43
  35.10
  36.86
  38.70
  40.64
  42.67
  44.80
  47.04
  49.39
  51.86
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -674
  536
  518
  491
  456
  416
  372
  327
  281
  236
  190
  153
  121
  93
  70
  51
  36
  25
  17
  11
  7
  4
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0

The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation is the source of commercial data, analytics and insight on businesses. The Company operates through two segments: Americas, which consists of its operations in the United States and Canada, and Non-Americas, which consists of its operations in the United Kingdom, Greater China, India, and its European and Asia Pacific Worldwide Networks. The Company provides Risk Management Solutions and Sales and Marketing Solutions. The Company provides DNBi and D&B Credit that are subscription-based online applications, which offers customers real time access to its complete and up-to-date global information, monitoring and portfolio analysis. The Company provides D&B Optimizer solution, which transforms its customers' prospects and data into up-to-date, actionable commercial insight, facilitating a single customer view across multiple systems and touch points, such as marketing and billing databases, and enables a customer to make sales and marketing decisions.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Dun&Bradstreet (DNB)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 54
Price to Sales 3.1
Price to Book -5.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 16.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 19.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 4.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -7.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 4.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 15
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity -159.1%
Total Debt to Equity -161.4%
Interest Coverage 5
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.7%
Return On Total Capital 14.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.1%
Return On Equity -9.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -16.6%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 68.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 67.1%
EBITDA Margin 19.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.4%
Operating Margin 15.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 12%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.8%
Net Profit Margin 5.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.5%
Effective Tax Rate 49%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.4%
Payout Ratio 73.2%

DNB stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the DNB stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1742.5 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Dun&Bradstreet. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Dun&Bradstreet. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our DNB stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 9.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 12.6%, whose default value for DNB is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Dun&Bradstreet, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Dun&Bradstreet.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of DNB stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 38.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $705 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for DNB stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Dun&Bradstreet.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Dun&Bradstreet. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the DNB stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for DNB are equal to 35%.

Life of production assets of 14.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Dun&Bradstreet operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for DNB is equal to -21.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-827.3 million for Dun&Bradstreet - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 37.1 million for Dun&Bradstreet is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Dun&Bradstreet at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $5.3 billion.

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▶ Dun & Bradstreet tops 4Q profit forecasts   [Feb-12-18 04:33PM  Associated Press]

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