Intrinsic value of Denison Mines - DNN

Previous Close

$0.57

  Intrinsic Value

$0.08

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-86%

Previous close

$0.57

 
Intrinsic value

$0.08

 
Up/down potential

-86%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of DNN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  9.20
  8.78
  8.40
  8.06
  7.76
  7.48
  7.23
  7.01
  6.81
  6.63
  6.46
  6.32
  6.19
  6.07
  5.96
  5.86
  5.78
  5.70
  5.63
  5.57
  5.51
  5.46
  5.41
  5.37
  5.34
  5.30
  5.27
  5.24
  5.22
  5.20
Revenue, $m
  15
  16
  18
  19
  21
  22
  24
  26
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  42
  44
  47
  49
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
  68
  71
  75
  79
  83
  87
Variable operating expenses, $m
  41
  45
  48
  52
  56
  61
  65
  69
  74
  79
  84
  89
  95
  101
  107
  113
  120
  126
  134
  141
  149
  157
  165
  174
  184
  193
  203
  214
  225
  237
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  41
  45
  48
  52
  56
  61
  65
  69
  74
  79
  84
  89
  95
  101
  107
  113
  120
  126
  134
  141
  149
  157
  165
  174
  184
  193
  203
  214
  225
  237
Operating income, $m
  -26
  -28
  -31
  -33
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -57
  -60
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -89
  -94
  -99
  -104
  -110
  -116
  -122
  -128
  -135
  -142
  -150
EBITDA, $m
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -86
  -90
  -95
  -100
  -105
  -111
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
Earnings before tax, $m
  -26
  -28
  -31
  -34
  -36
  -39
  -42
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -56
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -85
  -90
  -95
  -101
  -106
  -112
  -118
  -125
  -131
  -138
  -146
  -154
  -162
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -26
  -28
  -31
  -34
  -36
  -39
  -42
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -56
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -85
  -90
  -95
  -101
  -106
  -112
  -118
  -125
  -131
  -138
  -146
  -154
  -162

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  236
  257
  278
  301
  324
  348
  374
  400
  427
  455
  485
  515
  547
  580
  615
  651
  689
  728
  769
  812
  856
  903
  952
  1,003
  1,057
  1,113
  1,171
  1,233
  1,297
  1,365
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  236
  257
  278
  301
  324
  348
  374
  400
  427
  455
  485
  515
  547
  580
  615
  651
  689
  728
  769
  812
  856
  903
  952
  1,003
  1,057
  1,113
  1,171
  1,233
  1,297
  1,365
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.064
  0.062
  0.065
  0.063
  0.065
  0.063
  0.064
  0.065
  0.063
  0.064
  0.064
  0.064
  0.064
  0.064
  0.063
  0.065
  0.064
  0.065
  0.064
  0.064
  0.064
  0.064
  0.064
  0.064
  0.064
  0.064
  0.064
  0.064
  0.064
  0.064
Average production assets, $m
  203
  221
  239
  259
  279
  300
  321
  344
  367
  392
  417
  443
  471
  499
  529
  560
  592
  626
  661
  698
  737
  777
  819
  863
  909
  957
  1,007
  1,060
  1,116
  1,174
Working capital, $m
  -45
  -49
  -53
  -57
  -61
  -66
  -71
  -76
  -81
  -86
  -92
  -98
  -104
  -110
  -117
  -123
  -131
  -138
  -146
  -154
  -162
  -171
  -181
  -190
  -200
  -211
  -222
  -234
  -246
  -259
Total debt, $m
  4
  8
  13
  18
  22
  27
  33
  38
  44
  49
  55
  62
  68
  75
  82
  90
  97
  105
  114
  123
  132
  142
  152
  162
  173
  185
  197
  210
  223
  237
Total liabilities, $m
  49
  53
  57
  62
  67
  72
  77
  82
  88
  94
  100
  106
  113
  120
  127
  134
  142
  150
  158
  167
  176
  186
  196
  207
  218
  229
  241
  254
  267
  281
Total equity, $m
  187
  204
  221
  239
  257
  277
  297
  317
  339
  361
  385
  409
  434
  461
  488
  517
  547
  578
  610
  644
  680
  717
  756
  796
  839
  883
  930
  979
  1,030
  1,083
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  236
  257
  278
  301
  324
  349
  374
  399
  427
  455
  485
  515
  547
  581
  615
  651
  689
  728
  768
  811
  856
  903
  952
  1,003
  1,057
  1,112
  1,171
  1,233
  1,297
  1,364
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.020
  0.040
  0.060
  0.070
  0.090
  0.100
  0.110
  0.120
  0.130
  0.140
  0.140
  0.150
  0.160
  0.160
  0.170
  0.170
  0.180
  0.180
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.210
  0.210
  0.210
  0.210
  0.220
  0.220
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.794
  0.794
  0.794
  0.794
  0.794
  0.794
  0.794
  0.794
  0.794
  0.794
  0.794
  0.794
  0.794
  0.794
  0.794
  0.794
  0.794
  0.794
  0.794
  0.794
  0.794
  0.794
  0.794
  0.794
  0.794
  0.794
  0.794
  0.794
  0.794
  0.794

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -26
  -28
  -31
  -34
  -36
  -39
  -42
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -56
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -85
  -90
  -95
  -101
  -106
  -112
  -118
  -125
  -131
  -138
  -146
  -154
  -162
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  7
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
Funds from operations, $m
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -32
  -34
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -61
  -64
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -85
  -89
  -94
  -100
  -105
  -111
  -116
  -123
Change in working capital, $m
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
Cash from operations, $m
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -34
  -36
  -39
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -64
  -68
  -71
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -89
  -94
  -99
  -104
  -110
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
New CAPEX, $m
  -15
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -58
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -21
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -61
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -78
  -82
  -87
  -90
  -95
Free cash flow, $m
  -37
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -55
  -59
  -62
  -66
  -70
  -75
  -79
  -84
  -89
  -94
  -99
  -105
  -110
  -116
  -123
  -129
  -136
  -143
  -151
  -159
  -167
  -176
  -185
  -195
  -205
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  41
  45
  48
  52
  55
  59
  62
  66
  70
  75
  79
  84
  89
  94
  99
  104
  110
  116
  123
  129
  136
  143
  151
  159
  167
  176
  185
  195
  205
  215
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  45
  49
  52
  57
  60
  64
  67
  71
  76
  81
  85
  90
  96
  101
  106
  111
  118
  124
  131
  138
  145
  153
  161
  170
  178
  188
  197
  208
  218
  229
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  8
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -41
  -45
  -48
  -52
  -55
  -59
  -62
  -66
  -70
  -75
  -79
  -84
  -89
  -94
  -99
  -104
  -110
  -116
  -123
  -129
  -136
  -143
  -151
  -159
  -167
  -176
  -185
  -195
  -205
  -215
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -33
  -37
  -40
  -43
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -57
  -61
  -65
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -82
  -87
  -92
  -97
  -102
  -108
  -114
  -120
  -127
  -133
  -141
  -148
  -156
  -164
  -173
  -182
  -191
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -31
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -36
  -36
  -36
  -36
  -35
  -34
  -33
  -31
  -29
  -27
  -25
  -23
  -21
  -19
  -17
  -14
  -12
  -11
  -9
  -7
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  88.7
  78.5
  69.6
  61.8
  55.0
  48.9
  43.6
  38.9
  34.7
  31.0
  27.7
  24.8
  22.2
  19.9
  17.8
  15.9
  14.3
  12.8
  11.5
  10.3
  9.2
  8.3
  7.4
  6.7
  6.0
  5.4
  4.8
  4.3
  3.9
  3.5

Denison Mines Corp. is a uranium exploration and development company. The Company is engaged in the acquisition, exploration and development of uranium properties, extraction, processing and selling of uranium. The Company operates in three segments: the Mining segment, the Environmental Services segment, and the Corporate and Other segment. The Mining segment includes activities related to exploration, evaluation and development, mining, milling and the sale of mineral concentrates. The Environmental Services segment includes the operations of the Company's environmental services business, Denison Environmental Services (DES). The Corporate and Other segment includes its provision of general administrative and management services to Uranium Participation Corporation (UPC). The Company holds interests in exploration and evaluation projects located in Canada. Its mineral property interests in Canada include Wheeler River; Bachman Lake; Bell Lake; Crawford Lake; Torwalt Lake and Wolly.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Denison Mines (DNN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -18.1
Price to Sales 22
Price to Book 1.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -38.5
Price to Free Cash Flow -34.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 7.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -50%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -12.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -7.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -12.6%
Return On Total Capital -10%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -15.5%
Return On Equity -10%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -15.5%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 21.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3%
EBITDA Margin -85.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -166.3%
Operating Margin -107.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -184.4%
Pre-Tax Margin -114.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -192.7%
Net Profit Margin -121.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -280.5%
Effective Tax Rate 25%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.6%
Payout Ratio 0%

DNN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the DNN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $13.833 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Denison Mines. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Denison Mines. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our DNN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 9.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for DNN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Denison Mines, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Denison Mines.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of DNN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 271.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for DNN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Denison Mines.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Denison Mines. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the DNN stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for DNN are equal to 1343.9%.

Life of production assets of 46.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Denison Mines operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for DNN is equal to -296.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $172.711 million for Denison Mines - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 559.183 million for Denison Mines is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Denison Mines at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.3 billion.

RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating
CCJ Cameco 11.35 2.38  str.sell
URG Ur-Energy 0.700 0.07  str.sell

COMPANY NEWS

▶ Denison Reports Results from Q3 2018   [Nov-12-18 05:30AM  CNW Group]
▶ 3 Growth Stocks That Could Put Amazon's Returns to Shame   [Aug-29-18 09:17PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Denison Announces Board Appointments   [Aug-09-18 06:00PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Denison Reports Results from Q2 2018   [05:30PM  CNW Group]
▶ Denison Announces Results of Shareholder Meeting   [May-03-18 05:44PM  CNW Group]
▶ Denison Reports Results from Q1 2018   [May-02-18 05:30PM  CNW Group]
▶ Denison Announces Filing of Annual Report on Form 40-F   [Mar-28-18 01:30PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Denison Reports Results From 2017 and Outlook for 2018   [Mar-08-18 05:30PM  Marketwired]
▶ The Top Stock to Consider in Uranium Now   [Nov-28-17 08:40AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Is It Too Late To Buy Denison Mines Corp (TSX:DML)?   [Nov-14-17 03:23PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Denison Reports Q3 2017 Results   [Oct-31-17 06:00PM  Marketwired]
▶ Better Buy: Cameco Corporation vs. Denison Mines   [Sep-22-17 11:20AM  Motley Fool]
▶ 2 Top Uranium Stocks to Buy and Hold in 2017   [Jul-12-17 07:33PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Why Denison Mines Corp. Stock Fell Nearly 13% in May   [Jun-07-17 12:31PM  Motley Fool]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Denison Mines Corp. : May 19, 2017   [May-19-17 01:49PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Better Buy: Cameco Corporation vs. Denison Mines   [May-15-17 05:34PM  Motley Fool]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Denison Mines Corp. : May 8, 2017   [May-08-17 04:25PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Denison Announces Election of Directors   [May-04-17 05:30PM  Marketwired]
▶ Denison Announces Filing of Annual Report on Form 40-F   [Mar-30-17 04:30PM  Marketwired]
▶ Better Buy: Cameco Corporation vs. Denison Mines Corp   [Mar-09-17 01:07PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Denison Reports Results from 2016 and Outlook for 2017   [Mar-08-17 06:00PM  Marketwired]
▶ Here's Why Denison Mines Corp's Stock is Slumping Today   [Jan-18-17 03:59PM  at Motley Fool]

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