Intrinsic value of Diamond Offshore Drilling - DO

Previous Close

$11.15

  Intrinsic Value

$6.87

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-38%

Previous close

$11.15

 
Intrinsic value

$6.87

 
Up/down potential

-38%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of DO stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  1,515
  1,550
  1,590
  1,635
  1,684
  1,739
  1,798
  1,862
  1,931
  2,005
  2,085
  2,169
  2,259
  2,355
  2,457
  2,564
  2,678
  2,799
  2,926
  3,061
  3,202
  3,352
  3,510
  3,676
  3,851
  4,035
  4,229
  4,433
  4,648
  4,874
Variable operating expenses, $m
  242
  248
  254
  262
  270
  278
  288
  298
  309
  321
  334
  347
  361
  377
  393
  410
  429
  448
  468
  490
  512
  536
  562
  588
  616
  646
  677
  709
  744
  780
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  1,069
  1,093
  1,117
  1,141
  1,166
  1,192
  1,218
  1,245
  1,272
  1,300
  1,329
  1,358
  1,388
  1,419
  1,450
  1,482
  1,514
  1,548
  1,582
  1,616
  1,652
  1,688
  1,725
  1,763
  1,802
  1,842
  1,882
  1,924
  1,966
  2,009
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,311
  1,341
  1,371
  1,403
  1,436
  1,470
  1,506
  1,543
  1,581
  1,621
  1,663
  1,705
  1,749
  1,796
  1,843
  1,892
  1,943
  1,996
  2,050
  2,106
  2,164
  2,224
  2,287
  2,351
  2,418
  2,488
  2,559
  2,633
  2,710
  2,789
Operating income, $m
  204
  210
  219
  232
  249
  269
  292
  319
  350
  384
  422
  464
  510
  560
  614
  672
  735
  803
  876
  954
  1,038
  1,127
  1,223
  1,324
  1,433
  1,548
  1,670
  1,800
  1,938
  2,085
EBITDA, $m
  559
  572
  591
  615
  643
  676
  713
  755
  802
  853
  910
  972
  1,038
  1,111
  1,189
  1,272
  1,362
  1,458
  1,561
  1,671
  1,787
  1,912
  2,044
  2,184
  2,334
  2,492
  2,660
  2,837
  3,026
  3,225
Interest expense (income), $m
  106
  110
  113
  116
  120
  124
  129
  134
  139
  145
  152
  159
  166
  174
  182
  191
  201
  211
  221
  233
  244
  257
  270
  284
  299
  314
  331
  348
  366
  385
  405
Earnings before tax, $m
  94
  97
  103
  112
  125
  140
  158
  180
  205
  232
  264
  298
  336
  377
  423
  472
  525
  582
  644
  710
  781
  857
  939
  1,026
  1,118
  1,217
  1,322
  1,434
  1,553
  1,680
Tax expense, $m
  25
  26
  28
  30
  34
  38
  43
  49
  55
  63
  71
  80
  91
  102
  114
  127
  142
  157
  174
  192
  211
  231
  253
  277
  302
  329
  357
  387
  419
  454
Net income, $m
  68
  71
  75
  82
  91
  102
  116
  131
  149
  170
  192
  218
  245
  276
  309
  344
  383
  425
  470
  518
  570
  626
  685
  749
  816
  888
  965
  1,047
  1,134
  1,226

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  6,211
  6,354
  6,517
  6,700
  6,904
  7,126
  7,369
  7,632
  7,915
  8,219
  8,544
  8,890
  9,259
  9,652
  10,068
  10,509
  10,976
  11,470
  11,992
  12,543
  13,125
  13,738
  14,384
  15,065
  15,782
  16,537
  17,332
  18,169
  19,049
  19,974
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  6,211
  6,354
  6,517
  6,700
  6,904
  7,126
  7,369
  7,632
  7,915
  8,219
  8,544
  8,890
  9,259
  9,652
  10,068
  10,509
  10,976
  11,470
  11,992
  12,543
  13,125
  13,738
  14,384
  15,065
  15,782
  16,537
  17,332
  18,169
  19,049
  19,974
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.244
  0.244
  0.244
  0.244
  0.244
  0.244
  0.244
  0.244
  0.244
  0.244
  0.244
  0.244
  0.244
  0.244
  0.244
  0.244
  0.244
  0.244
  0.244
  0.244
  0.244
  0.244
  0.244
  0.244
  0.244
  0.244
  0.244
  0.244
  0.244
  0.244
Average production assets, $m
  5,603
  5,732
  5,879
  6,044
  6,227
  6,428
  6,647
  6,884
  7,140
  7,414
  7,707
  8,020
  8,353
  8,707
  9,082
  9,480
  9,902
  10,347
  10,818
  11,315
  11,839
  12,392
  12,975
  13,590
  14,237
  14,918
  15,635
  16,389
  17,183
  18,018
Working capital, $m
  292
  299
  307
  316
  325
  336
  347
  359
  373
  387
  402
  419
  436
  455
  474
  495
  517
  540
  565
  591
  618
  647
  677
  709
  743
  779
  816
  856
  897
  941
Total debt, $m
  2,018
  2,076
  2,142
  2,216
  2,299
  2,389
  2,488
  2,594
  2,709
  2,833
  2,965
  3,105
  3,255
  3,415
  3,584
  3,763
  3,952
  4,153
  4,365
  4,588
  4,825
  5,073
  5,336
  5,612
  5,904
  6,210
  6,533
  6,872
  7,230
  7,605
Total liabilities, $m
  2,522
  2,580
  2,646
  2,720
  2,803
  2,893
  2,992
  3,099
  3,213
  3,337
  3,469
  3,609
  3,759
  3,919
  4,088
  4,267
  4,456
  4,657
  4,869
  5,093
  5,329
  5,578
  5,840
  6,116
  6,408
  6,714
  7,037
  7,376
  7,734
  8,109
Total equity, $m
  3,689
  3,774
  3,871
  3,980
  4,101
  4,233
  4,377
  4,533
  4,701
  4,882
  5,075
  5,281
  5,500
  5,733
  5,981
  6,243
  6,520
  6,813
  7,123
  7,451
  7,796
  8,160
  8,544
  8,949
  9,375
  9,823
  10,295
  10,792
  11,315
  11,865
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  6,211
  6,354
  6,517
  6,700
  6,904
  7,126
  7,369
  7,632
  7,914
  8,219
  8,544
  8,890
  9,259
  9,652
  10,069
  10,510
  10,976
  11,470
  11,992
  12,544
  13,125
  13,738
  14,384
  15,065
  15,783
  16,537
  17,332
  18,168
  19,049
  19,974
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.550
  0.550
  0.550
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.570
  0.570
  0.580
  0.580
  0.580
  0.590
  0.590
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.620
  0.620
  0.620
  0.620
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.594
  0.594
  0.594
  0.594
  0.594
  0.594
  0.594
  0.594
  0.594
  0.594
  0.594
  0.594
  0.594
  0.594
  0.594
  0.594
  0.594
  0.594
  0.594
  0.594
  0.594
  0.594
  0.594
  0.594
  0.594
  0.594
  0.594
  0.594
  0.594
  0.594

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  68
  71
  75
  82
  91
  102
  116
  131
  149
  170
  192
  218
  245
  276
  309
  344
  383
  425
  470
  518
  570
  626
  685
  749
  816
  888
  965
  1,047
  1,134
  1,226
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  355
  363
  372
  383
  394
  407
  421
  436
  452
  469
  488
  508
  529
  551
  575
  600
  627
  655
  685
  716
  749
  784
  821
  860
  901
  944
  990
  1,037
  1,088
  1,140
Funds from operations, $m
  423
  433
  447
  464
  485
  509
  536
  567
  601
  639
  680
  725
  774
  827
  883
  944
  1,010
  1,080
  1,155
  1,234
  1,320
  1,410
  1,506
  1,609
  1,717
  1,833
  1,955
  2,084
  2,221
  2,367
Change in working capital, $m
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  44
Cash from operations, $m
  417
  427
  440
  456
  476
  499
  525
  555
  588
  625
  665
  709
  756
  808
  864
  924
  988
  1,057
  1,130
  1,209
  1,292
  1,381
  1,476
  1,577
  1,684
  1,797
  1,917
  2,045
  2,180
  2,323
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -348
  -355
  -363
  -372
  -383
  -394
  -407
  -421
  -436
  -452
  -469
  -488
  -508
  -529
  -551
  -575
  -600
  -627
  -655
  -685
  -716
  -749
  -784
  -821
  -860
  -901
  -944
  -990
  -1,037
  -1,088
New CAPEX, $m
  -108
  -129
  -147
  -165
  -183
  -201
  -219
  -237
  -255
  -274
  -293
  -313
  -333
  -354
  -376
  -398
  -421
  -446
  -471
  -497
  -524
  -553
  -583
  -614
  -647
  -681
  -717
  -754
  -794
  -835
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -456
  -484
  -510
  -537
  -566
  -595
  -626
  -658
  -691
  -726
  -762
  -801
  -841
  -883
  -927
  -973
  -1,021
  -1,073
  -1,126
  -1,182
  -1,240
  -1,302
  -1,367
  -1,435
  -1,507
  -1,582
  -1,661
  -1,744
  -1,831
  -1,923
Free cash flow, $m
  -39
  -57
  -71
  -82
  -90
  -97
  -101
  -103
  -103
  -101
  -97
  -92
  -84
  -75
  -63
  -49
  -34
  -16
  4
  27
  52
  79
  109
  141
  177
  215
  256
  301
  349
  401
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  45
  58
  66
  74
  82
  90
  99
  107
  115
  123
  132
  141
  150
  159
  169
  179
  190
  201
  212
  224
  236
  249
  262
  276
  291
  307
  323
  340
  357
  376
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  14
  22
  27
  30
  30
  28
  25
  19
  11
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  45
  72
  88
  101
  112
  120
  127
  132
  134
  134
  133
  141
  150
  159
  169
  179
  190
  201
  212
  224
  236
  249
  262
  276
  291
  307
  323
  340
  357
  376
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  6
  15
  18
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  31
  33
  35
  49
  66
  85
  106
  130
  156
  185
  216
  250
  288
  328
  371
  418
  468
  521
  579
  640
  706
  776
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -68
  -85
  -97
  -109
  -121
  -132
  -144
  -156
  -168
  -180
  -193
  -206
  -219
  -233
  -247
  -262
  -277
  -293
  -310
  -327
  -345
  -364
  -384
  -404
  -426
  -449
  -472
  -497
  -523
  -550
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  153
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  91
  -69
  -79
  -89
  -99
  -108
  -118
  -128
  -138
  -148
  -158
  -157
  -154
  -148
  -141
  -132
  -121
  -109
  -94
  -77
  -58
  -36
  -13
  13
  42
  73
  107
  144
  183
  227
Discount rate, %
  5.40
  5.67
  5.95
  6.25
  6.56
  6.89
  7.24
  7.60
  7.98
  8.38
  8.80
  9.24
  9.70
  10.18
  10.69
  11.23
  11.79
  12.38
  13.00
  13.65
  14.33
  15.04
  15.80
  16.59
  17.42
  18.29
  19.20
  20.16
  21.17
  22.23
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  87
  -62
  -67
  -70
  -72
  -73
  -72
  -71
  -69
  -66
  -62
  -54
  -46
  -38
  -31
  -24
  -18
  -13
  -9
  -6
  -3
  -2
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  99.5
  98.6
  97.7
  96.6
  95.6
  94.7
  94.0
  93.4
  93.1
  93.1
  93.1
  93.1
  93.1
  93.1
  93.1
  93.1
  93.1
  93.1
  93.1
  93.1
  93.1
  93.1
  93.1
  93.1
  93.1
  93.1
  93.1
  93.1
  93.1

Diamond Offshore Drilling, Inc. provides contract drilling services to the energy industry. As of December 31, 2016, the Company had a fleet of 24 offshore drilling rigs. As of December 31, 2016, its fleet consisted of four drillships, 19 semisubmersible rigs and one jack-up rig. Its fleet enables it to offer a range of services, primarily in the floater market, including ultra-deepwater, deepwater and mid-water. The principal markets for its offshore contract drilling services are the Gulf of Mexico, including the United States and Mexico; South America, principally offshore Brazil, and Trinidad and Tobago; Australia and Southeast Asia, including Malaysia, Indonesia and Vietnam; Europe, principally offshore the United Kingdom and Norway; East and West Africa; the Mediterranean, and the Middle East. The Company provides offshore drilling services to a customer base that includes independent oil and gas companies, and government-owned oil companies.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Diamond Offshore Drilling (DO)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -4.1
Price to Sales 1
Price to Book 0.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 2.4
Price to Free Cash Flow -254.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -33.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -21.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -7.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 2
Current Ratio 0.3
LT Debt to Equity 52.8%
Total Debt to Equity 55.6%
Interest Coverage -3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -4.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.3%
Return On Total Capital -6.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.6%
Return On Equity -9.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.5%
Asset Turnover 0.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 48.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 46.2%
EBITDA Margin 1.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.6%
Operating Margin -22.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -4.7%
Pre-Tax Margin -29.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -8.9%
Net Profit Margin -23.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -7%
Effective Tax Rate 20.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.4%
Payout Ratio 0%

DO stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the DO stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1485.746 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Diamond Offshore Drilling. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Diamond Offshore Drilling. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our DO stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.4%, whose default value for DO is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Diamond Offshore Drilling, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Diamond Offshore Drilling.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of DO stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 16%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $1046 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for DO stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.6% for Diamond Offshore Drilling.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Diamond Offshore Drilling. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the DO stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for DO are equal to 369.7%.

Life of production assets of 15.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Diamond Offshore Drilling operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for DO is equal to 19.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $3774.261 million for Diamond Offshore Drilling - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 137.434 million for Diamond Offshore Drilling is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Diamond Offshore Drilling at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.5 billion.

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