Intrinsic value of Diamondrock Hospitality - DRH

Previous Close

$12.23

  Intrinsic Value

$154.13

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+999%

Previous close

$12.23

 
Intrinsic value

$154.13

 
Up/down potential

+999%

 
Rating

str. buy

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as DRH.

We calculate the intrinsic value of DRH stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  887
  908
  931
  957
  986
  1,018
  1,053
  1,090
  1,131
  1,174
  1,221
  1,270
  1,323
  1,379
  1,439
  1,502
  1,568
  1,639
  1,713
  1,792
  1,875
  1,963
  2,055
  2,152
  2,255
  2,363
  2,476
  2,596
  2,722
  2,854
Variable operating expenses, $m
  296
  303
  310
  318
  328
  338
  349
  361
  374
  388
  389
  405
  422
  440
  459
  479
  500
  523
  546
  571
  598
  626
  655
  686
  719
  753
  790
  828
  868
  910
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  459
  469
  479
  490
  501
  512
  523
  534
  546
  558
  570
  583
  596
  609
  622
  636
  650
  664
  679
  694
  709
  725
  741
  757
  774
  791
  808
  826
  844
  863
Total operating expenses, $m
  755
  772
  789
  808
  829
  850
  872
  895
  920
  946
  959
  988
  1,018
  1,049
  1,081
  1,115
  1,150
  1,187
  1,225
  1,265
  1,307
  1,351
  1,396
  1,443
  1,493
  1,544
  1,598
  1,654
  1,712
  1,773
Operating income, $m
  132
  136
  142
  149
  158
  169
  181
  195
  211
  229
  261
  282
  305
  330
  358
  387
  418
  452
  488
  527
  568
  612
  659
  709
  762
  819
  879
  942
  1,010
  1,081
EBITDA, $m
  471
  482
  496
  513
  533
  555
  580
  608
  639
  672
  709
  748
  790
  836
  885
  937
  993
  1,053
  1,116
  1,184
  1,256
  1,332
  1,413
  1,498
  1,589
  1,685
  1,787
  1,894
  2,008
  2,128
Interest expense (income), $m
  40
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Earnings before tax, $m
  132
  136
  142
  149
  158
  169
  181
  195
  211
  229
  261
  282
  305
  330
  358
  387
  418
  452
  488
  527
  568
  612
  659
  709
  762
  819
  879
  942
  1,010
  1,081
Tax expense, $m
  36
  37
  38
  40
  43
  46
  49
  53
  57
  62
  70
  76
  82
  89
  97
  104
  113
  122
  132
  142
  153
  165
  178
  191
  206
  221
  237
  254
  273
  292
Net income, $m
  97
  99
  103
  109
  115
  123
  132
  142
  154
  167
  191
  206
  223
  241
  261
  282
  305
  330
  356
  385
  415
  447
  481
  518
  557
  598
  642
  688
  737
  789

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  -234
  -240
  -246
  -253
  -261
  -269
  -278
  -288
  -299
  -310
  -322
  -336
  -349
  -364
  -380
  -397
  -414
  -433
  -453
  -473
  -495
  -518
  -543
  -569
  -596
  -624
  -654
  -686
  -719
  -754
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  -234
  -240
  -246
  -253
  -261
  -269
  -278
  -288
  -299
  -310
  -322
  -336
  -349
  -364
  -380
  -397
  -414
  -433
  -453
  -473
  -495
  -518
  -543
  -569
  -596
  -624
  -654
  -686
  -719
  -754
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  -3.791
  -3.783
  -3.785
  -3.783
  -3.778
  -3.784
  -3.788
  -3.785
  -3.783
  -3.787
  -3.792
  -3.780
  -3.791
  -3.788
  -3.787
  -3.783
  -3.787
  -3.785
  -3.781
  -3.789
  -3.788
  -3.790
  -3.785
  -3.782
  -3.784
  -3.787
  -3.786
  -3.784
  -3.786
  -3.785
Average production assets, $m
  3,253
  3,328
  3,414
  3,510
  3,616
  3,733
  3,860
  3,997
  4,146
  4,305
  4,475
  4,657
  4,850
  5,056
  5,274
  5,505
  5,749
  6,008
  6,281
  6,570
  6,875
  7,196
  7,534
  7,891
  8,267
  8,662
  9,078
  9,517
  9,977
  10,462
Working capital, $m
  -1,293
  -1,323
  -1,357
  -1,395
  -1,437
  -1,484
  -1,534
  -1,589
  -1,648
  -1,711
  -1,779
  -1,851
  -1,928
  -2,009
  -2,096
  -2,188
  -2,285
  -2,388
  -2,496
  -2,611
  -2,732
  -2,860
  -2,994
  -3,136
  -3,285
  -3,443
  -3,608
  -3,782
  -3,965
  -4,158
Total debt, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total liabilities, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total equity, $m
  -234
  -240
  -246
  -253
  -261
  -269
  -278
  -288
  -299
  -310
  -322
  -336
  -349
  -364
  -380
  -397
  -414
  -433
  -453
  -473
  -495
  -518
  -543
  -569
  -596
  -624
  -654
  -686
  -719
  -754
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  -234
  -240
  -246
  -253
  -261
  -269
  -278
  -288
  -299
  -310
  -322
  -336
  -349
  -364
  -380
  -397
  -414
  -433
  -453
  -473
  -495
  -518
  -543
  -569
  -596
  -624
  -654
  -686
  -719
  -754
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
Adjusted equity ratio
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  97
  99
  103
  109
  115
  123
  132
  142
  154
  167
  191
  206
  223
  241
  261
  282
  305
  330
  356
  385
  415
  447
  481
  518
  557
  598
  642
  688
  737
  789
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  339
  346
  355
  364
  375
  386
  399
  413
  428
  444
  448
  466
  485
  506
  527
  550
  575
  601
  628
  657
  687
  720
  753
  789
  827
  866
  908
  952
  998
  1,046
Funds from operations, $m
  435
  445
  458
  473
  490
  510
  531
  555
  582
  610
  638
  672
  708
  747
  788
  833
  880
  931
  985
  1,042
  1,102
  1,167
  1,235
  1,307
  1,383
  1,464
  1,549
  1,640
  1,735
  1,836
Change in working capital, $m
  -25
  -30
  -34
  -38
  -42
  -46
  -51
  -55
  -59
  -63
  -68
  -72
  -77
  -82
  -87
  -92
  -97
  -103
  -109
  -115
  -121
  -128
  -135
  -142
  -149
  -157
  -165
  -174
  -183
  -193
Cash from operations, $m
  461
  475
  492
  511
  532
  556
  582
  610
  641
  674
  706
  744
  785
  828
  875
  925
  978
  1,034
  1,093
  1,156
  1,223
  1,294
  1,369
  1,449
  1,533
  1,621
  1,715
  1,814
  1,918
  2,028
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -319
  -325
  -333
  -341
  -351
  -362
  -373
  -386
  -400
  -415
  -430
  -448
  -466
  -485
  -506
  -527
  -550
  -575
  -601
  -628
  -657
  -687
  -720
  -753
  -789
  -827
  -866
  -908
  -952
  -998
New CAPEX, $m
  -64
  -75
  -86
  -96
  -106
  -117
  -127
  -138
  -148
  -159
  -170
  -182
  -193
  -206
  -218
  -231
  -245
  -259
  -273
  -289
  -305
  -321
  -339
  -357
  -376
  -396
  -416
  -438
  -461
  -485
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -383
  -400
  -419
  -437
  -457
  -479
  -500
  -524
  -548
  -574
  -600
  -630
  -659
  -691
  -724
  -758
  -795
  -834
  -874
  -917
  -962
  -1,008
  -1,059
  -1,110
  -1,165
  -1,223
  -1,282
  -1,346
  -1,413
  -1,483
Free cash flow, $m
  78
  75
  74
  74
  75
  78
  82
  87
  93
  100
  105
  115
  126
  138
  151
  166
  182
  200
  219
  240
  262
  286
  311
  338
  368
  399
  432
  468
  506
  546
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  73
  70
  68
  67
  67
  69
  72
  77
  82
  89
  93
  102
  112
  123
  136
  150
  165
  181
  199
  219
  240
  262
  287
  313
  341
  371
  402
  436
  472
  511
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  5
  5
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
  30
  32
  33
  35
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  230
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
Cash available for distribution, $m
  307
  75
  74
  74
  75
  78
  82
  87
  93
  100
  105
  115
  126
  138
  151
  166
  182
  200
  219
  240
  262
  286
  311
  338
  368
  399
  432
  468
  506
  546
Discount rate, %
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  307
  75
  74
  74
  75
  78
  82
  87
  93
  100
  105
  115
  126
  138
  151
  166
  182
  200
  219
  240
  262
  286
  311
  338
  368
  399
  432
  468
  506
  546
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

DiamondRock Hospitality Company is a real estate investment trust (REIT). As of December 31, 2016, the Company owned a portfolio of 26 hotels and resorts that contains 9,472 guest rooms located in 17 different markets in North America and the United States Virgin Islands. Its business is to acquire, own, asset manage and renovate hotel properties in the United States. Its portfolio is concentrated in gateway cities and destination resort locations. It conducts its business through an umbrella partnership REIT (UPREIT) in, which its hotels are owned by subsidiaries of its operating partnership, DiamondRock Hospitality Limited Partnership. The Company is the general partner of its operating partnership and owns, either directly or indirectly, all of the limited partnership units of its operating partnership. The Company leases all of its domestic hotels to taxable REIT subsidiary, Bloodstone TRS, Inc. (TRS) lessees.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Diamondrock Hospitality (DRH)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 21.3
Price to Sales 2.7
Price to Book 1.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 11.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 21.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -3.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 63.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -0.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 50.1%
Total Debt to Equity 50.1%
Interest Coverage 4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.3%
Return On Total Capital 4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.2%
Return On Equity 6.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.8%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 31.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 30%
EBITDA Margin 29.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.1%
Operating Margin 17.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 14.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.6%
Net Profit Margin 12.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.6%
Effective Tax Rate 9.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.1%
Payout Ratio 87.8%

DRH stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the DRH stock intrinsic value calculation we used $870 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Diamondrock Hospitality. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Diamondrock Hospitality. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our DRH stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 0%, whose default value for DRH is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Diamondrock Hospitality, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Diamondrock Hospitality.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of DRH stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 33.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $449 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for DRH stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Diamondrock Hospitality.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Diamondrock Hospitality. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the DRH stock is equal to 0.7%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for DRH are equal to 366.6%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Diamondrock Hospitality operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for DRH is equal to -145.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $0 million for Diamondrock Hospitality - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 201 million for Diamondrock Hospitality is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Diamondrock Hospitality at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.5 billion.

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SOHO Sotherly Hotel 6.93 98.92  str.buy
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COMPANY NEWS

▶ RLJ Lodging wanted to hire its rivals former CFO. Not so fast, the rival said.   [Jul-17-18 12:57PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Benzinga Pro's 5 Stocks To Watch Today   [May-18-18 08:40AM  Benzinga]
▶ DiamondRock Hospitality Company to Host Earnings Call   [May-07-18 07:00AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ DiamondRock Hospitality: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-03-18 07:08PM  Associated Press]
▶ New owner considering additions to Tahoe resort   [Apr-04-18 10:37AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ DiamondRock Hospitality Company to Host Earnings Call   [Feb-27-18 07:15AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ DiamondRock Hospitality reports 4Q results   [Feb-26-18 04:22PM  Associated Press]
▶ DiamondRock Hospitality reports 3Q results   [Nov-06-17 04:42PM  Associated Press]
▶ Five Hotels To Buy Despite Industry Oversupply Woes   [Oct-02-17 09:54AM  Barrons.com]
▶ DiamondRock Hospitality reports 2Q results   [Aug-07-17 11:56PM  Associated Press]
▶ Adventures in Venezuela With Goldman Sachs   [Jun-01-17 01:05PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ DiamondRock Hospitality reports 1Q results   [May-05-17 07:40AM  Associated Press]
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