Intrinsic value of Diamondrock Hospitality - DRH

Previous Close

$11.33

  Intrinsic Value

$2.29

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-80%

Previous close

$11.33

 
Intrinsic value

$2.29

 
Up/down potential

-80%

 
Rating

str. sell

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as DRH.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of DRH stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -3.65
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  897
  915
  936
  960
  987
  1,017
  1,050
  1,086
  1,124
  1,166
  1,211
  1,259
  1,310
  1,364
  1,422
  1,483
  1,548
  1,617
  1,690
  1,767
  1,848
  1,933
  2,024
  2,119
  2,219
  2,325
  2,436
  2,553
  2,676
  2,806
  2,942
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  768
  785
  805
  828
  853
  881
  911
  943
  978
  1,016
  1,056
  1,099
  1,144
  1,193
  1,244
  1,299
  1,357
  1,418
  1,482
  1,550
  1,622
  1,698
  1,778
  1,862
  1,951
  2,044
  2,142
  2,246
  2,354
  2,469
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  739
  768
  785
  805
  828
  853
  881
  911
  943
  978
  1,016
  1,056
  1,099
  1,144
  1,193
  1,244
  1,299
  1,357
  1,418
  1,482
  1,550
  1,622
  1,698
  1,778
  1,862
  1,951
  2,044
  2,142
  2,246
  2,354
  2,469
Operating income, $m
  157
  147
  151
  155
  159
  164
  169
  175
  181
  188
  195
  203
  211
  220
  229
  239
  249
  260
  272
  284
  297
  311
  326
  341
  357
  374
  392
  411
  431
  452
  474
EBITDA, $m
  254
  246
  252
  258
  266
  274
  283
  292
  303
  314
  326
  339
  353
  367
  383
  399
  417
  435
  455
  476
  497
  521
  545
  570
  597
  626
  656
  687
  721
  755
  792
Interest expense (income), $m
  40
  35
  36
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
  57
  59
  62
  66
  69
  73
  76
  81
  85
  89
  94
  99
  104
  110
  116
  122
  128
  135
Earnings before tax, $m
  127
  112
  115
  117
  121
  124
  128
  132
  136
  141
  146
  151
  157
  163
  169
  176
  184
  191
  199
  208
  217
  227
  237
  247
  258
  270
  283
  296
  309
  324
  339
Tax expense, $m
  12
  30
  31
  32
  33
  33
  34
  36
  37
  38
  39
  41
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  59
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  80
  84
  87
  91
Net income, $m
  115
  82
  84
  86
  88
  90
  93
  96
  99
  103
  106
  110
  115
  119
  124
  129
  134
  140
  146
  152
  158
  165
  173
  180
  189
  197
  206
  216
  226
  236
  247

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  243
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  3,069
  2,886
  2,953
  3,029
  3,114
  3,208
  3,312
  3,424
  3,547
  3,678
  3,819
  3,970
  4,131
  4,303
  4,485
  4,679
  4,884
  5,101
  5,330
  5,573
  5,829
  6,099
  6,384
  6,684
  7,001
  7,334
  7,685
  8,054
  8,443
  8,852
  9,282
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,826
  2,886
  2,953
  3,029
  3,114
  3,208
  3,312
  3,424
  3,547
  3,678
  3,819
  3,970
  4,131
  4,303
  4,485
  4,679
  4,884
  5,101
  5,330
  5,573
  5,829
  6,099
  6,384
  6,684
  7,001
  7,334
  7,685
  8,054
  8,443
  8,852
  9,282
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
Average production assets, $m
  2,786
  2,842
  2,907
  2,982
  3,066
  3,159
  3,261
  3,372
  3,492
  3,621
  3,760
  3,909
  4,068
  4,237
  4,416
  4,607
  4,809
  5,022
  5,248
  5,487
  5,739
  6,005
  6,286
  6,581
  6,893
  7,221
  7,567
  7,930
  8,313
  8,716
  9,139
Working capital, $m
  0
  -248
  -254
  -260
  -267
  -276
  -284
  -294
  -305
  -316
  -328
  -341
  -355
  -370
  -385
  -402
  -420
  -438
  -458
  -479
  -501
  -524
  -548
  -574
  -601
  -630
  -660
  -692
  -725
  -760
  -797
Total debt, $m
  921
  947
  976
  1,009
  1,047
  1,088
  1,133
  1,182
  1,235
  1,293
  1,354
  1,420
  1,490
  1,565
  1,645
  1,729
  1,818
  1,913
  2,013
  2,119
  2,230
  2,348
  2,472
  2,603
  2,741
  2,887
  3,040
  3,201
  3,370
  3,548
  3,736
Total liabilities, $m
  1,233
  1,258
  1,287
  1,320
  1,358
  1,399
  1,444
  1,493
  1,546
  1,604
  1,665
  1,731
  1,801
  1,876
  1,956
  2,040
  2,129
  2,224
  2,324
  2,430
  2,541
  2,659
  2,783
  2,914
  3,052
  3,198
  3,351
  3,512
  3,681
  3,859
  4,047
Total equity, $m
  1,837
  1,628
  1,665
  1,708
  1,756
  1,809
  1,868
  1,931
  2,000
  2,074
  2,154
  2,239
  2,330
  2,427
  2,530
  2,639
  2,754
  2,877
  3,006
  3,143
  3,288
  3,440
  3,601
  3,770
  3,948
  4,136
  4,334
  4,543
  4,762
  4,993
  5,235
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  3,070
  2,886
  2,952
  3,028
  3,114
  3,208
  3,312
  3,424
  3,546
  3,678
  3,819
  3,970
  4,131
  4,303
  4,486
  4,679
  4,883
  5,101
  5,330
  5,573
  5,829
  6,099
  6,384
  6,684
  7,000
  7,334
  7,685
  8,055
  8,443
  8,852
  9,282
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.501
  0.580
  0.590
  0.590
  0.600
  0.600
  0.610
  0.610
  0.620
  0.620
  0.630
  0.630
  0.640
  0.640
  0.650
  0.660
  0.660
  0.660
  0.670
  0.670
  0.680
  0.680
  0.690
  0.690
  0.690
  0.700
  0.700
  0.700
  0.710
  0.710
  0.710
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  115
  82
  84
  86
  88
  90
  93
  96
  99
  103
  106
  110
  115
  119
  124
  129
  134
  140
  146
  152
  158
  165
  173
  180
  189
  197
  206
  216
  226
  236
  247
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  97
  99
  101
  104
  107
  110
  114
  117
  122
  126
  131
  136
  142
  148
  154
  161
  168
  175
  183
  191
  200
  209
  219
  229
  240
  252
  264
  276
  290
  304
  318
Funds from operations, $m
  211
  181
  185
  190
  195
  201
  207
  214
  221
  229
  237
  247
  256
  267
  278
  289
  302
  315
  328
  343
  358
  375
  392
  410
  429
  449
  470
  492
  515
  540
  566
Change in working capital, $m
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
Cash from operations, $m
  216
  186
  191
  196
  202
  209
  216
  223
  232
  240
  250
  260
  270
  281
  293
  306
  319
  333
  348
  364
  380
  398
  416
  436
  456
  477
  500
  524
  549
  575
  603
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -97
  -99
  -101
  -104
  -107
  -110
  -114
  -117
  -122
  -126
  -131
  -136
  -142
  -148
  -154
  -161
  -168
  -175
  -183
  -191
  -200
  -209
  -219
  -229
  -240
  -252
  -264
  -276
  -290
  -304
New CAPEX, $m
  -103
  -56
  -65
  -75
  -84
  -93
  -102
  -111
  -120
  -130
  -139
  -149
  -159
  -169
  -180
  -191
  -202
  -214
  -226
  -239
  -252
  -266
  -281
  -296
  -312
  -328
  -346
  -364
  -383
  -403
  -423
Cash from investing activities, $m
  86
  -153
  -164
  -176
  -188
  -200
  -212
  -225
  -237
  -252
  -265
  -280
  -295
  -311
  -328
  -345
  -363
  -382
  -401
  -422
  -443
  -466
  -490
  -515
  -541
  -568
  -598
  -628
  -659
  -693
  -727
Free cash flow, $m
  302
  33
  26
  20
  14
  9
  4
  -1
  -6
  -11
  -16
  -20
  -25
  -29
  -34
  -39
  -43
  -48
  -53
  -58
  -63
  -68
  -74
  -79
  -85
  -91
  -97
  -104
  -110
  -117
  -124
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -161
  26
  29
  33
  37
  41
  45
  49
  53
  57
  62
  66
  70
  75
  79
  84
  89
  95
  100
  106
  112
  118
  124
  131
  138
  145
  153
  161
  169
  178
  188
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -7
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -171
  26
  29
  33
  37
  41
  45
  49
  53
  57
  62
  66
  70
  75
  79
  84
  89
  95
  100
  106
  112
  118
  124
  131
  138
  145
  153
  161
  169
  178
  188
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  131
  59
  55
  53
  52
  50
  49
  48
  47
  46
  46
  46
  46
  45
  46
  46
  46
  47
  47
  48
  49
  50
  51
  52
  53
  54
  56
  58
  59
  61
  63
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -12
  -34
  -37
  -43
  -48
  -53
  -58
  -64
  -69
  -74
  -80
  -85
  -91
  -97
  -103
  -109
  -116
  -122
  -129
  -137
  -144
  -152
  -161
  -169
  -178
  -188
  -198
  -208
  -219
  -231
  -243
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  243
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  269
  18
  10
  3
  -3
  -10
  -16
  -22
  -28
  -34
  -40
  -45
  -51
  -57
  -63
  -69
  -76
  -82
  -89
  -96
  -103
  -110
  -118
  -125
  -134
  -142
  -151
  -160
  -169
  -179
Discount rate, %
 
  5.50
  5.78
  6.06
  6.37
  6.69
  7.02
  7.37
  7.74
  8.13
  8.53
  8.96
  9.41
  9.88
  10.37
  10.89
  11.43
  12.01
  12.61
  13.24
  13.90
  14.59
  15.32
  16.09
  16.89
  17.74
  18.62
  19.56
  20.53
  21.56
  22.64
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  255
  16
  9
  3
  -2
  -6
  -10
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -15
  -15
  -14
  -13
  -12
  -11
  -10
  -8
  -7
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

DiamondRock Hospitality Company is a real estate investment trust (REIT). As of December 31, 2016, the Company owned a portfolio of 26 hotels and resorts that contains 9,472 guest rooms located in 17 different markets in North America and the United States Virgin Islands. Its business is to acquire, own, asset manage and renovate hotel properties in the United States. Its portfolio is concentrated in gateway cities and destination resort locations. It conducts its business through an umbrella partnership REIT (UPREIT) in, which its hotels are owned by subsidiaries of its operating partnership, DiamondRock Hospitality Limited Partnership. The Company is the general partner of its operating partnership and owns, either directly or indirectly, all of the limited partnership units of its operating partnership. The Company leases all of its domestic hotels to taxable REIT subsidiary, Bloodstone TRS, Inc. (TRS) lessees.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Diamondrock Hospitality (DRH)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 19.7
Price to Sales 2.5
Price to Book 1.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 10.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 20.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -3.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 63.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -0.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 50.1%
Total Debt to Equity 50.1%
Interest Coverage 4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.3%
Return On Total Capital 4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.2%
Return On Equity 6.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.8%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 31.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 30%
EBITDA Margin 29.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.1%
Operating Margin 17.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 14.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.6%
Net Profit Margin 12.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.6%
Effective Tax Rate 9.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.1%
Payout Ratio 87.8%

DRH stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the DRH stock intrinsic value calculation we used $897 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Diamondrock Hospitality. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Diamondrock Hospitality. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our DRH stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.5%, whose default value for DRH is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Diamondrock Hospitality, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Diamondrock Hospitality.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of DRH stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 83.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for DRH stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.8% for Diamondrock Hospitality.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Diamondrock Hospitality. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the DRH stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for DRH are equal to 310.6%.

Life of production assets of 28.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Diamondrock Hospitality operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for DRH is equal to -27.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1837 million for Diamondrock Hospitality - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 200.373 million for Diamondrock Hospitality is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Diamondrock Hospitality at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.3 billion.

RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating
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CHSP Chesapeake Lod 27.87 4.95  str.sell
HPT Hospitality Pr 30.14 4.76  str.sell
SOHO Sotherly Hotel 6.52 4.87  hold
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COMPANY NEWS

▶ DiamondRock Hospitality reports 3Q results   [Nov-06-17 04:42PM  Associated Press]
▶ Five Hotels To Buy Despite Industry Oversupply Woes   [Oct-02-17 09:54AM  Barrons.com]
▶ DiamondRock Hospitality reports 2Q results   [Aug-07-17 11:56PM  Associated Press]
▶ Adventures in Venezuela With Goldman Sachs   [Jun-01-17 01:05PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ DiamondRock Hospitality reports 1Q results   [May-05-17 07:40AM  Associated Press]
▶ DiamondRock Hospitality reports 4Q results   [07:43AM  Associated Press]
▶ How Greater Washington stocks are faring post-election   [Nov-09-16 01:59PM  at bizjournals.com]
Financial statements of DRH
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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