Intrinsic value of Dicerna Pharmaceuticals, Inc. - DRNA

Previous Close

$13.29

  Intrinsic Value

$0.73

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-95%

Previous close

$13.29

 
Intrinsic value

$0.73

 
Up/down potential

-95%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of DRNA stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  49.60
  45.14
  41.13
  37.51
  34.26
  31.34
  28.70
  26.33
  24.20
  22.28
  20.55
  19.00
  17.60
  16.34
  15.20
  14.18
  13.26
  12.44
  11.69
  11.02
  10.42
  9.88
  9.39
  8.95
  8.56
  8.20
  7.88
  7.59
  7.33
  7.10
Revenue, $m
  9
  13
  18
  25
  34
  45
  57
  72
  90
  110
  133
  158
  186
  216
  249
  284
  322
  362
  404
  449
  496
  545
  596
  649
  705
  762
  822
  885
  950
  1,017
Variable operating expenses, $m
  108
  156
  220
  302
  406
  533
  686
  867
  1,076
  1,316
  1,586
  1,887
  2,219
  2,582
  2,974
  3,396
  3,847
  4,325
  4,831
  5,363
  5,922
  6,507
  7,119
  7,756
  8,420
  9,110
  9,828
  10,575
  11,350
  12,156
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  52
  53
  54
  56
  57
  58
  59
  61
  62
  63
  65
  66
  68
  69
  71
  72
  74
  75
  77
  79
  81
  82
  84
  86
  88
  90
  92
  94
  96
  98
Total operating expenses, $m
  160
  209
  274
  358
  463
  591
  745
  928
  1,138
  1,379
  1,651
  1,953
  2,287
  2,651
  3,045
  3,468
  3,921
  4,400
  4,908
  5,442
  6,003
  6,589
  7,203
  7,842
  8,508
  9,200
  9,920
  10,669
  11,446
  12,254
Operating income, $m
  -151
  -196
  -256
  -333
  -429
  -547
  -688
  -855
  -1,048
  -1,269
  -1,518
  -1,795
  -2,101
  -2,435
  -2,796
  -3,184
  -3,598
  -4,038
  -4,504
  -4,993
  -5,507
  -6,045
  -6,607
  -7,193
  -7,803
  -8,438
  -9,098
  -9,783
  -10,496
  -11,237
EBITDA, $m
  -150
  -195
  -254
  -331
  -426
  -543
  -684
  -849
  -1,041
  -1,261
  -1,509
  -1,784
  -2,088
  -2,420
  -2,778
  -3,164
  -3,576
  -4,013
  -4,475
  -4,962
  -5,472
  -6,007
  -6,565
  -7,147
  -7,753
  -8,384
  -9,039
  -9,721
  -10,429
  -11,165
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  3
  10
  19
  30
  44
  61
  82
  106
  135
  167
  204
  245
  290
  339
  392
  449
  510
  575
  644
  716
  792
  871
  954
  1,040
  1,130
  1,224
  1,321
  1,422
  1,527
Earnings before tax, $m
  -151
  -200
  -266
  -351
  -459
  -590
  -749
  -936
  -1,154
  -1,404
  -1,685
  -1,999
  -2,346
  -2,724
  -3,135
  -3,576
  -4,048
  -4,549
  -5,079
  -5,637
  -6,223
  -6,837
  -7,478
  -8,147
  -8,843
  -9,568
  -10,321
  -11,105
  -11,918
  -12,764
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -151
  -200
  -266
  -351
  -459
  -590
  -749
  -936
  -1,154
  -1,404
  -1,685
  -1,999
  -2,346
  -2,724
  -3,135
  -3,576
  -4,048
  -4,549
  -5,079
  -5,637
  -6,223
  -6,837
  -7,478
  -8,147
  -8,843
  -9,568
  -10,321
  -11,105
  -11,918
  -12,764

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  299
  434
  613
  843
  1,131
  1,486
  1,913
  2,416
  3,001
  3,669
  4,424
  5,264
  6,190
  7,201
  8,296
  9,473
  10,729
  12,064
  13,475
  14,960
  16,520
  18,152
  19,857
  21,634
  23,486
  25,412
  27,415
  29,497
  31,660
  33,908
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  299
  434
  613
  843
  1,131
  1,486
  1,913
  2,416
  3,001
  3,669
  4,424
  5,264
  6,190
  7,201
  8,296
  9,473
  10,729
  12,064
  13,475
  14,960
  16,520
  18,152
  19,857
  21,634
  23,486
  25,412
  27,415
  29,497
  31,660
  33,908
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.030
  0.030
  0.029
  0.030
  0.030
  0.030
  0.030
  0.030
  0.030
  0.030
  0.030
  0.030
  0.030
  0.030
  0.030
  0.030
  0.030
  0.030
  0.030
  0.030
  0.030
  0.030
  0.030
  0.030
  0.030
  0.030
  0.030
  0.030
  0.030
  0.030
Average production assets, $m
  3
  5
  6
  9
  12
  16
  20
  26
  32
  39
  47
  56
  66
  76
  88
  100
  114
  128
  143
  158
  175
  192
  210
  229
  249
  269
  290
  312
  335
  359
Working capital, $m
  4
  7
  9
  13
  17
  22
  29
  36
  45
  55
  66
  79
  93
  108
  124
  142
  161
  181
  202
  224
  248
  272
  298
  325
  352
  381
  411
  442
  475
  509
Total debt, $m
  61
  182
  343
  550
  810
  1,129
  1,513
  1,966
  2,492
  3,094
  3,773
  4,529
  5,363
  6,273
  7,258
  8,317
  9,448
  10,649
  11,919
  13,256
  14,659
  16,128
  17,663
  19,263
  20,929
  22,662
  24,465
  26,339
  28,286
  30,309
Total liabilities, $m
  269
  391
  552
  758
  1,018
  1,337
  1,721
  2,175
  2,701
  3,303
  3,981
  4,738
  5,571
  6,481
  7,467
  8,526
  9,657
  10,858
  12,127
  13,464
  14,868
  16,337
  17,871
  19,471
  21,137
  22,871
  24,673
  26,547
  28,494
  30,517
Total equity, $m
  30
  43
  61
  84
  113
  149
  191
  242
  300
  367
  442
  526
  619
  720
  830
  947
  1,073
  1,206
  1,347
  1,496
  1,652
  1,815
  1,986
  2,163
  2,349
  2,541
  2,741
  2,950
  3,166
  3,391
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  299
  434
  613
  842
  1,131
  1,486
  1,912
  2,417
  3,001
  3,670
  4,423
  5,264
  6,190
  7,201
  8,297
  9,473
  10,730
  12,064
  13,474
  14,960
  16,520
  18,152
  19,857
  21,634
  23,486
  25,412
  27,414
  29,497
  31,660
  33,908
Debt-to-equity ratio
  2.040
  4.200
  5.600
  6.530
  7.160
  7.600
  7.910
  8.140
  8.310
  8.430
  8.530
  8.600
  8.660
  8.710
  8.750
  8.780
  8.810
  8.830
  8.850
  8.860
  8.870
  8.890
  8.900
  8.900
  8.910
  8.920
  8.920
  8.930
  8.930
  8.940
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -151
  -200
  -266
  -351
  -459
  -590
  -749
  -936
  -1,154
  -1,404
  -1,685
  -1,999
  -2,346
  -2,724
  -3,135
  -3,576
  -4,048
  -4,549
  -5,079
  -5,637
  -6,223
  -6,837
  -7,478
  -8,147
  -8,843
  -9,568
  -10,321
  -11,105
  -11,918
  -12,764
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  5
  7
  8
  9
  11
  13
  15
  18
  20
  23
  26
  29
  32
  35
  38
  42
  46
  50
  54
  58
  62
  67
  72
Funds from operations, $m
  -150
  -198
  -264
  -349
  -456
  -587
  -745
  -931
  -1,148
  -1,396
  -1,676
  -1,988
  -2,333
  -2,709
  -3,117
  -3,556
  -4,025
  -4,523
  -5,050
  -5,605
  -6,188
  -6,798
  -7,436
  -8,101
  -8,793
  -9,514
  -10,263
  -11,042
  -11,851
  -12,692
Change in working capital, $m
  1
  2
  3
  3
  4
  5
  6
  8
  9
  10
  11
  13
  14
  15
  16
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
Cash from operations, $m
  -151
  -200
  -267
  -353
  -460
  -592
  -751
  -939
  -1,156
  -1,406
  -1,687
  -2,001
  -2,347
  -2,724
  -3,134
  -3,574
  -4,044
  -4,543
  -5,071
  -5,628
  -6,211
  -6,823
  -7,461
  -8,127
  -8,821
  -9,543
  -10,293
  -11,073
  -11,884
  -12,726
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -8
  -9
  -11
  -13
  -15
  -18
  -20
  -23
  -26
  -29
  -32
  -35
  -38
  -42
  -46
  -50
  -54
  -58
  -62
  -67
New CAPEX, $m
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -1
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -5
  -6
  -8
  -9
  -11
  -13
  -16
  -18
  -21
  -24
  -27
  -30
  -33
  -37
  -41
  -45
  -49
  -52
  -56
  -61
  -66
  -70
  -75
  -80
  -85
  -91
Free cash flow, $m
  -153
  -202
  -270
  -356
  -465
  -598
  -759
  -948
  -1,168
  -1,419
  -1,703
  -2,019
  -2,367
  -2,748
  -3,160
  -3,604
  -4,077
  -4,580
  -5,112
  -5,672
  -6,260
  -6,875
  -7,518
  -8,188
  -8,887
  -9,613
  -10,368
  -11,153
  -11,969
  -12,817
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  61
  122
  161
  207
  260
  319
  384
  453
  526
  602
  679
  756
  834
  910
  985
  1,059
  1,131
  1,201
  1,270
  1,337
  1,403
  1,469
  1,534
  1,600
  1,666
  1,734
  1,803
  1,874
  1,947
  2,023
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  189
  213
  284
  374
  487
  626
  792
  987
  1,213
  1,471
  1,760
  2,083
  2,438
  2,826
  3,244
  3,694
  4,173
  4,682
  5,220
  5,785
  6,379
  7,000
  7,648
  8,324
  9,028
  9,760
  10,522
  11,313
  12,135
  12,989
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  250
  335
  445
  581
  747
  945
  1,176
  1,440
  1,739
  2,073
  2,439
  2,839
  3,272
  3,736
  4,229
  4,753
  5,304
  5,883
  6,490
  7,122
  7,782
  8,469
  9,182
  9,924
  10,694
  11,494
  12,325
  13,187
  14,082
  15,012
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  96
  132
  175
  225
  282
  347
  417
  492
  571
  653
  736
  821
  905
  988
  1,069
  1,149
  1,227
  1,303
  1,378
  1,451
  1,523
  1,594
  1,665
  1,736
  1,808
  1,881
  1,956
  2,033
  2,113
  2,195
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -189
  -213
  -284
  -374
  -487
  -626
  -792
  -987
  -1,213
  -1,471
  -1,760
  -2,083
  -2,438
  -2,826
  -3,244
  -3,694
  -4,173
  -4,682
  -5,220
  -5,785
  -6,379
  -7,000
  -7,648
  -8,324
  -9,028
  -9,760
  -10,522
  -11,313
  -12,135
  -12,989
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  209
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  117
  -81
  -109
  -150
  -205
  -279
  -375
  -495
  -642
  -817
  -1,024
  -1,263
  -1,534
  -1,838
  -2,175
  -2,545
  -2,946
  -3,379
  -3,842
  -4,335
  -4,856
  -5,406
  -5,984
  -6,588
  -7,220
  -7,879
  -8,566
  -9,280
  -10,022
  -10,794
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  112
  -74
  -95
  -123
  -159
  -203
  -253
  -309
  -369
  -429
  -486
  -539
  -583
  -617
  -639
  -647
  -641
  -622
  -592
  -551
  -502
  -449
  -392
  -336
  -281
  -230
  -184
  -144
  -109
  -81
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  50.0
  19.4
  7.9
  3.4
  1.5
  0.7
  0.3
  0.1
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Dicerna Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is a ribonucleic acid (RNA) interference-based biopharmaceutical company. The Company operates in the segment of discovery, research and development of treatments based on its RNA interference (RNAi) technology platform. The Company is focused on the discovery and development of treatments for rare inherited diseases involving the liver and for cancers that are genetically defined. The Company uses its RNAi technology platform to build a pipeline in these therapeutic areas. The Company develops dacryocystorhinostomy (DCR)-Primary Hyperoxaluria Type 1 (PH1) for the treatment of PH1 by targeting the gene encoding the liver enzyme glycolate oxidase. The Company uses its dicer substrate RNA (DsiRNA)-EX Conjugate technology to develop a subcutaneously injected treatment for PH1. The Company develops DCR-MYC for the treatment of MYC-related cancers, including hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (PNET).

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Dicerna Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (DRNA)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -4.6
Price to Sales 0
Price to Book 6.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -5.6
Price to Free Cash Flow -5.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -100%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -100%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -79.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -67.9%
Return On Total Capital -90.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -74.7%
Return On Equity -90.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -75.5%
Asset Turnover 0
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 0%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Operating Margin 0%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Pre-Tax Margin 0%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Net Profit Margin 0%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

DRNA stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the DRNA stock intrinsic value calculation we used $6 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Dicerna Pharmaceuticals, Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Dicerna Pharmaceuticals, Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our DRNA stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 49.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for DRNA is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Dicerna Pharmaceuticals, Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Dicerna Pharmaceuticals, Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of DRNA stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 1200%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $51 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for DRNA stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Dicerna Pharmaceuticals, Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Dicerna Pharmaceuticals, Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the DRNA stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for DRNA are equal to 35.3%.

Life of production assets of 2.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Dicerna Pharmaceuticals, Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for DRNA is equal to 50%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $200.693 million for Dicerna Pharmaceuticals, Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 68.211 million for Dicerna Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Dicerna Pharmaceuticals, Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.9 billion.

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