Intrinsic value of Durect - DRRX

Previous Close

$1.04

  Intrinsic Value

$0.02

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-98%

Previous close

$1.04

 
Intrinsic value

$0.02

 
Up/down potential

-98%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of DRRX stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  50
  51
  53
  54
  56
  58
  60
  62
  64
  66
  69
  72
  75
  78
  81
  85
  89
  93
  97
  101
  106
  111
  116
  122
  127
  134
  140
  147
  154
  161
Variable operating expenses, $m
  33
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  43
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  78
  82
  85
  90
  94
  98
  103
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  39
  40
  41
  41
  42
  43
  44
  45
  46
  47
  48
  49
  50
  52
  53
  54
  55
  56
  57
  59
  60
  61
  63
  64
  65
  67
  68
  70
  71
  73
Total operating expenses, $m
  72
  73
  75
  76
  78
  80
  83
  85
  88
  90
  92
  95
  98
  102
  105
  108
  112
  115
  119
  124
  128
  132
  137
  142
  147
  152
  158
  164
  169
  176
Operating income, $m
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -23
  -23
  -23
  -24
  -24
  -24
  -23
  -23
  -24
  -23
  -23
  -23
  -23
  -23
  -23
  -22
  -22
  -21
  -21
  -20
  -20
  -19
  -18
  -17
  -16
  -15
EBITDA, $m
  -21
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -23
  -23
  -23
  -23
  -23
  -23
  -23
  -23
  -23
  -23
  -22
  -22
  -22
  -21
  -21
  -20
  -20
  -19
  -18
  -17
  -16
  -15
  -14
Interest expense (income), $m
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
Earnings before tax, $m
  -24
  -24
  -25
  -25
  -25
  -26
  -26
  -26
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -26
  -26
  -25
  -25
  -24
  -24
  -23
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -24
  -24
  -25
  -25
  -25
  -26
  -26
  -26
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -26
  -26
  -25
  -25
  -24
  -24
  -23

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  25
  26
  27
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  36
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  75
  78
  82
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  25
  26
  27
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  36
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  75
  78
  82
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.000
  1.962
  1.963
  2.000
  2.000
  2.000
  2.000
  2.000
  2.000
  1.941
  1.971
  2.000
  1.974
  1.950
  1.976
  1.977
  1.978
  1.979
  1.980
  1.980
  1.963
  1.982
  1.966
  1.968
  1.954
  1.971
  1.972
  1.960
  1.974
  1.963
Average production assets, $m
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
Working capital, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total debt, $m
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
Total liabilities, $m
  23
  23
  24
  25
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  42
  44
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  74
Total equity, $m
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  26
  26
  27
  28
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  36
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  46
  47
  49
  51
  53
  57
  59
  62
  64
  68
  71
  74
  78
  82
Debt-to-equity ratio
  7.260
  7.300
  7.340
  7.390
  7.440
  7.490
  7.540
  7.590
  7.640
  7.690
  7.740
  7.790
  7.830
  7.880
  7.930
  7.970
  8.020
  8.060
  8.100
  8.140
  8.180
  8.210
  8.250
  8.280
  8.320
  8.350
  8.380
  8.410
  8.430
  8.460
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -24
  -24
  -25
  -25
  -25
  -26
  -26
  -26
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -26
  -26
  -25
  -25
  -24
  -24
  -23
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
Funds from operations, $m
  -23
  -23
  -24
  -24
  -24
  -25
  -25
  -26
  -26
  -26
  -26
  -26
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -26
  -26
  -26
  -26
  -25
  -25
  -24
  -24
  -23
  -22
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from operations, $m
  -23
  -23
  -24
  -24
  -24
  -25
  -25
  -26
  -26
  -26
  -26
  -26
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -26
  -26
  -26
  -26
  -25
  -25
  -24
  -24
  -23
  -22
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
New CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
Cash from investing activities, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
Free cash flow, $m
  -23
  -24
  -24
  -24
  -25
  -25
  -26
  -26
  -26
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -28
  -28
  -28
  -28
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -26
  -26
  -25
  -25
  -24
  -24
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  26
  24
  25
  25
  26
  26
  26
  27
  27
  27
  27
  27
  27
  27
  27
  27
  27
  27
  27
  27
  27
  27
  27
  26
  26
  26
  25
  25
  24
  23
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  25
  25
  26
  26
  27
  27
  27
  28
  28
  28
  28
  28
  28
  28
  29
  29
  29
  29
  29
  29
  29
  29
  29
  29
  29
  29
  28
  28
  27
  26
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -26
  -24
  -25
  -25
  -26
  -26
  -26
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -26
  -26
  -26
  -25
  -25
  -24
  -23
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  21
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -4
  -23
  -23
  -24
  -24
  -24
  -25
  -25
  -25
  -25
  -26
  -26
  -26
  -26
  -26
  -26
  -26
  -26
  -26
  -25
  -25
  -25
  -25
  -24
  -24
  -23
  -23
  -22
  -21
  -20
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -4
  -21
  -20
  -20
  -19
  -18
  -17
  -16
  -15
  -13
  -12
  -11
  -10
  -9
  -8
  -7
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  14.5
  6.5
  3.0
  1.4
  0.6
  0.3
  0.1
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
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Durect Corporation is a biopharmaceutical company with research and development programs. The Company's products candidates include DUR-928, oral for metabolic/lipid disorders, and DUR-928, injectable for acute organ injuries. Its other product candidates include POSIMIR (controlled release injection of bupivacaine), REMOXY (oral controlled release oxycodone), ORADUR-ADHD, ELADUR (controlled release injection of bupivicane), Relday (risperidone), ORADUR-based opioid (hydromorphone) and SABER-based ophthalmic. The Company's ALZET product line consists of miniature, implantable osmotic pumps and accessories used for experimental research in mice, rats and other laboratory animals. The Company also manufactures and sells osmotic pumps used in laboratory research and design; and develops and manufactures a range of standard and custom biodegradable polymers and excipients for pharmaceutical and medical device clients for use as raw materials in their products.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Durect (DRRX)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -4.2
Price to Sales 10.5
Price to Book 18.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -5.4
Price to Free Cash Flow -5.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -26.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 250%
Interest Coverage -17
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -75%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -54.8%
Return On Total Capital -111.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -78.7%
Return On Equity -304.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -175.9%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 64.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 72.3%
EBITDA Margin -235.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -150.5%
Operating Margin -228.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -149.9%
Pre-Tax Margin -250%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -162.3%
Net Profit Margin -250%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -162.3%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

DRRX stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the DRRX stock intrinsic value calculation we used $49.17 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Durect. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Durect. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our DRRX stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for DRRX is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Durect, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Durect.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of DRRX stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 65.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $38 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for DRRX stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 12.2% for Durect.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Durect. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the DRRX stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for DRRX are equal to 8.8%.

Life of production assets of 17.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Durect operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for DRRX is equal to 0.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $21.488 million for Durect - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 162.002 million for Durect is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Durect at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ FDA Decision Sends Pain Therapeutics Reeling   [Aug-06-18 03:32PM  Benzinga]
▶ Durect: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [05:42PM  Associated Press]
▶ Why Durect Corporation Stock Is Spiking Today   [Jul-30-18 11:42AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Durect: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-02-18 06:23PM  Associated Press]
▶ Is DURECT Corporation (NASDAQ:DRRX) Undervalued?   [Mar-12-18 07:58AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Durect tops 4Q revenue forecasts   [Mar-01-18 06:31PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to DURECT Corp. : December 11, 2017   [Dec-11-17 01:47PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to DURECT Corp. : December 1, 2017   [Dec-01-17 10:36AM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to DURECT Corp. : November 20, 2017   [Nov-20-17 12:15PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to DURECT Corp. : November 8, 2017   [Nov-08-17 05:58PM  Capital Cube]
▶ DRRX: Focus will be Shifted to DUR-928 Programs   [Nov-02-17 05:00PM  Zacks Small Cap Research]
▶ Durect tops Street 3Q forecasts   [Nov-01-17 05:47PM  Associated Press]
▶ DURECT Corporation (DRRX) Shares Collapse Heres Why   [Oct-20-17 09:54AM  SmarterAnalyst]
▶ ETFs with exposure to DURECT Corp. : October 16, 2017   [Oct-16-17 09:51AM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to DURECT Corp. : October 5, 2017   [Oct-05-17 10:58AM  Capital Cube]
▶ DURECT (DRRX): A $17.5 Million Patent Purchase Agreement with Indivior PLC   [Oct-03-17 08:00AM  Zacks Small Cap Research]
▶ DURECT to Participate in Upcoming Healthcare Conferences   [Sep-05-17 04:15PM  PR Newswire]
▶ DRRX: A $293 Million Deal with Sandoz for POSIMIR® in the United States   [Aug-10-17 02:00PM  Zacks Small Cap Research]
▶ Durect reports 2Q loss   [Aug-08-17 11:56PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to DURECT Corp. : July 10, 2017   [Jul-10-17 02:20PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to DURECT Corp. : May 26, 2017   [May-26-17 01:05PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to DURECT Corp. : May 15, 2017   [May-15-17 03:35PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Durect reports 1Q loss   [May-10-17 05:34PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to DURECT Corp. : April 27, 2017   [Apr-27-17 03:56PM  Capital Cube]

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