Intrinsic value of DryShips - DRYS

Previous Close

$3.90

  Intrinsic Value

$0.12

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-97%

Previous close

$3.90

 
Intrinsic value

$0.12

 
Up/down potential

-97%

 
Rating

str. sell

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of DRYS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -94.64
  23.10
  21.29
  19.66
  18.19
  16.88
  15.69
  14.62
  13.66
  12.79
  12.01
  11.31
  10.68
  10.11
  9.60
  9.14
  8.73
  8.35
  8.02
  7.72
  7.45
  7.20
  6.98
  6.78
  6.60
  6.44
  6.30
  6.17
  6.05
  5.95
  5.85
Revenue, $m
  52
  64
  78
  93
  110
  128
  148
  170
  193
  218
  244
  272
  301
  332
  363
  397
  431
  467
  505
  544
  584
  626
  670
  715
  762
  812
  863
  916
  971
  1,029
  1,089
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  114
  139
  166
  196
  229
  265
  304
  346
  390
  437
  486
  538
  593
  650
  709
  771
  835
  902
  972
  1,044
  1,119
  1,198
  1,279
  1,363
  1,451
  1,543
  1,638
  1,737
  1,840
  1,948
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  114
  117
  120
  123
  126
  129
  132
  135
  139
  142
  146
  149
  153
  157
  161
  165
  169
  173
  177
  182
  186
  191
  196
  201
  206
  211
  216
  222
  227
  233
Total operating expenses, $m
  201
  228
  256
  286
  319
  355
  394
  436
  481
  529
  579
  632
  687
  746
  807
  870
  936
  1,004
  1,075
  1,149
  1,226
  1,305
  1,389
  1,475
  1,564
  1,657
  1,754
  1,854
  1,959
  2,067
  2,181
Operating income, $m
  -149
  -164
  -178
  -193
  -209
  -227
  -246
  -266
  -288
  -311
  -335
  -360
  -387
  -414
  -443
  -473
  -505
  -537
  -571
  -606
  -642
  -680
  -719
  -759
  -802
  -845
  -891
  -938
  -987
  -1,038
  -1,091
EBITDA, $m
  -146
  -160
  -173
  -187
  -202
  -219
  -237
  -256
  -276
  -297
  -320
  -343
  -368
  -394
  -421
  -449
  -478
  -508
  -540
  -572
  -606
  -641
  -678
  -715
  -755
  -795
  -838
  -882
  -927
  -975
  -1,024
Interest expense (income), $m
  6
  0
  0
  2
  3
  5
  7
  9
  11
  14
  16
  19
  22
  25
  28
  31
  35
  38
  42
  46
  50
  54
  59
  63
  68
  73
  78
  83
  89
  95
  101
Earnings before tax, $m
  -157
  -164
  -178
  -194
  -212
  -232
  -253
  -275
  -299
  -324
  -351
  -379
  -408
  -439
  -471
  -505
  -539
  -575
  -613
  -652
  -692
  -734
  -778
  -823
  -870
  -918
  -969
  -1,021
  -1,076
  -1,133
  -1,192
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -199
  -164
  -178
  -194
  -212
  -232
  -253
  -275
  -299
  -324
  -351
  -379
  -408
  -439
  -471
  -505
  -539
  -575
  -613
  -652
  -692
  -734
  -778
  -823
  -870
  -918
  -969
  -1,021
  -1,076
  -1,133
  -1,192

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  76
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  194
  145
  176
  211
  249
  291
  337
  386
  439
  495
  554
  617
  683
  752
  824
  899
  978
  1,059
  1,144
  1,233
  1,324
  1,420
  1,519
  1,622
  1,729
  1,840
  1,956
  2,077
  2,203
  2,334
  2,470
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  118
  145
  176
  211
  249
  291
  337
  386
  439
  495
  554
  617
  683
  752
  824
  899
  978
  1,059
  1,144
  1,233
  1,324
  1,420
  1,519
  1,622
  1,729
  1,840
  1,956
  2,077
  2,203
  2,334
  2,470
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.441
  0.441
  0.443
  0.441
  0.442
  0.440
  0.439
  0.440
  0.440
  0.440
  0.440
  0.441
  0.441
  0.441
  0.441
  0.442
  0.441
  0.441
  0.441
  0.441
  0.441
  0.441
  0.441
  0.441
  0.441
  0.441
  0.441
  0.441
  0.441
  0.441
  0.441
Average production assets, $m
  96
  118
  143
  172
  203
  237
  274
  314
  357
  403
  451
  502
  556
  612
  671
  732
  796
  862
  932
  1,003
  1,078
  1,156
  1,236
  1,320
  1,407
  1,498
  1,593
  1,691
  1,793
  1,900
  2,011
Working capital, $m
  71
  15
  18
  21
  25
  30
  34
  39
  45
  50
  56
  63
  70
  77
  84
  92
  100
  108
  117
  126
  135
  145
  155
  165
  176
  187
  199
  212
  224
  238
  252
Total debt, $m
  17
  4
  31
  63
  97
  135
  176
  220
  268
  318
  372
  428
  487
  550
  614
  682
  753
  826
  903
  982
  1,065
  1,151
  1,240
  1,333
  1,429
  1,529
  1,634
  1,742
  1,855
  1,973
  2,096
Total liabilities, $m
  144
  131
  158
  190
  224
  262
  303
  347
  395
  445
  499
  555
  614
  677
  741
  809
  880
  953
  1,030
  1,109
  1,192
  1,278
  1,367
  1,460
  1,556
  1,656
  1,761
  1,869
  1,982
  2,100
  2,223
Total equity, $m
  50
  15
  18
  21
  25
  29
  34
  39
  44
  49
  55
  62
  68
  75
  82
  90
  98
  106
  114
  123
  132
  142
  152
  162
  173
  184
  196
  208
  220
  233
  247
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  194
  146
  176
  211
  249
  291
  337
  386
  439
  494
  554
  617
  682
  752
  823
  899
  978
  1,059
  1,144
  1,232
  1,324
  1,420
  1,519
  1,622
  1,729
  1,840
  1,957
  2,077
  2,202
  2,333
  2,470
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.340
  0.250
  1.790
  2.970
  3.900
  4.640
  5.230
  5.710
  6.100
  6.430
  6.710
  6.940
  7.140
  7.310
  7.460
  7.590
  7.700
  7.800
  7.890
  7.970
  8.040
  8.110
  8.160
  8.220
  8.270
  8.310
  8.350
  8.390
  8.420
  8.460
  8.490
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.220
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -199
  -164
  -178
  -194
  -212
  -232
  -253
  -275
  -299
  -324
  -351
  -379
  -408
  -439
  -471
  -505
  -539
  -575
  -613
  -652
  -692
  -734
  -778
  -823
  -870
  -918
  -969
  -1,021
  -1,076
  -1,133
  -1,192
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  12
  13
  15
  17
  19
  20
  22
  24
  27
  29
  31
  33
  36
  39
  41
  44
  47
  50
  53
  56
  60
  63
  67
Funds from operations, $m
  -8
  -160
  -173
  -189
  -205
  -224
  -243
  -265
  -287
  -311
  -336
  -362
  -390
  -419
  -449
  -480
  -513
  -547
  -582
  -618
  -656
  -696
  -736
  -779
  -823
  -868
  -916
  -965
  -1,016
  -1,069
  -1,125
Change in working capital, $m
  17
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
Cash from operations, $m
  -25
  -163
  -176
  -192
  -209
  -228
  -248
  -270
  -292
  -316
  -342
  -369
  -397
  -426
  -456
  -488
  -521
  -555
  -591
  -627
  -666
  -705
  -746
  -789
  -834
  -880
  -927
  -977
  -1,029
  -1,083
  -1,139
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -12
  -13
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -36
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -60
  -63
New CAPEX, $m
  0
  -22
  -25
  -28
  -31
  -34
  -37
  -40
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -84
  -87
  -91
  -94
  -98
  -102
  -107
  -111
Cash from investing activities, $m
  70
  -25
  -29
  -33
  -37
  -41
  -45
  -49
  -53
  -58
  -61
  -66
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -88
  -93
  -98
  -103
  -108
  -114
  -120
  -125
  -131
  -138
  -144
  -151
  -158
  -167
  -174
Free cash flow, $m
  45
  -188
  -205
  -225
  -246
  -269
  -293
  -319
  -346
  -374
  -404
  -435
  -467
  -500
  -535
  -572
  -609
  -648
  -688
  -730
  -774
  -819
  -866
  -914
  -965
  -1,017
  -1,072
  -1,129
  -1,188
  -1,249
  -1,313
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -92
  4
  28
  31
  34
  38
  41
  44
  47
  50
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  76
  79
  83
  86
  89
  93
  96
  100
  104
  109
  113
  118
  123
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  124
  188
  181
  198
  216
  236
  257
  280
  304
  330
  357
  385
  415
  446
  478
  512
  547
  584
  621
  661
  701
  744
  787
  833
  880
  929
  980
  1,033
  1,088
  1,146
  1,206
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  32
  192
  209
  229
  250
  274
  298
  324
  351
  380
  410
  441
  474
  508
  543
  580
  618
  658
  697
  740
  784
  830
  876
  926
  976
  1,029
  1,084
  1,142
  1,201
  1,264
  1,329
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  76
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  71
  -188
  -181
  -198
  -216
  -236
  -257
  -280
  -304
  -330
  -357
  -385
  -415
  -446
  -478
  -512
  -547
  -584
  -621
  -661
  -701
  -744
  -787
  -833
  -880
  -929
  -980
  -1,033
  -1,088
  -1,146
  -1,206
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  59
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -126
  -178
  -194
  -212
  -231
  -252
  -274
  -298
  -324
  -350
  -378
  -408
  -438
  -470
  -504
  -538
  -575
  -612
  -651
  -691
  -733
  -776
  -822
  -868
  -917
  -967
  -1,020
  -1,074
  -1,131
  -1,190
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -121
  -163
  -169
  -174
  -179
  -183
  -185
  -186
  -186
  -184
  -180
  -174
  -167
  -158
  -148
  -137
  -125
  -113
  -100
  -88
  -76
  -64
  -54
  -44
  -36
  -28
  -22
  -17
  -12
  -9
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  19.7
  8.3
  3.7
  1.7
  0.8
  0.4
  0.2
  0.1
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

DryShips, Inc. is a holding company. The Company owns drybulk carriers and offshore support vessels. The Company operates through two segments: the drybulk carrier and the offshore support. Under its drybulk segment, the Company operates as a provider of drybulk commodities transportation services for the steel, electric utility, construction and agri-food industries. Under its offshore support segment, the Company operates as a provider of offshore support services to the global offshore energy industry. The Offshore support segment operates a diversified fleet of offshore support vessels. It owns a fleet of approximately 20 Panamax drybulk carriers, which have a combined deadweight tonnage (dwt) of approximately 1.5 million dwt and an average age of approximately 10 years, and six offshore supply vessels, comprising over two platform supply and four oil spill recovery vessels, and have an average age of approximately 3.1 years.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  DryShips (DRYS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 0
Price to Sales 0
Price to Book 0
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 0
Price to Free Cash Flow 0
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -94.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -100%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -100%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 4
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 34%
Interest Coverage -25
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -57.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -35.6%
Return On Total Capital -98%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -54.3%
Return On Equity -232.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -139.1%
Asset Turnover 0.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin -5.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 35.1%
EBITDA Margin -284.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -106.2%
Operating Margin -286.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -117.5%
Pre-Tax Margin -301.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -135.5%
Net Profit Margin -382.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -226.1%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 18%
Payout Ratio 0%

DRYS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the DRYS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $52 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by DryShips. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of DryShips. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our DRYS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 23.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for DRYS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of DryShips, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of DryShips.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of DRYS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 178.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $111 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for DRYS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.1% for DryShips.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for DryShips. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the DRYS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for DRYS are equal to 184.6%.

Life of production assets of 33.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in DryShips operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for DRYS is equal to 23.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $50 million for DryShips - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 104.274 million for DryShips is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of DryShips at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.4 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ DryShips Inc. Announces the Launch of Its New Website   [Nov-27-17 08:45AM  Marketwired]
▶ DryShips Inc. (DRYS) Shares Tumble on Back of 3Q:17 Results   [Nov-21-17 05:24PM  SmarterAnalyst]
▶ DryShips reports 3Q loss   [04:17PM  Associated Press]
▶ 2 Best Performing Stocks in October   [Nov-03-17 03:34PM  Motley Fool]
▶ [$$] Martin Shkrelis Legacy Upends a Creative Financier   [12:09AM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ [$$] Martin Shkreli's Legacy Upends a Creative Financier   [Oct-24-17 06:02AM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Why DryShips, PetMed Express, and VF Corp. Jumped Today   [Oct-23-17 04:30PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Trade of the Week: DryShips   [09:00AM  TheStreet.com]
▶ Here's Why DryShips Inc.'s Stock Is Soaring Today   [Oct-06-17 03:42PM  Motley Fool]
▶ DryShips Inc. Announces Results Of Rights Offering   [Oct-04-17 08:45AM  Marketwired]
▶ DryShips reports 2Q loss   [Aug-31-17 08:03PM  Associated Press]
▶ [$$] SEC Issues Subpoena to DryShips   [Aug-30-17 09:16PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ [$$] SEC Issues Subpoena to DryShips   [05:28PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ DryShips Inc. Announces Rights Offering   [04:10PM  Marketwired]
Financial statements of DRYS
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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