Intrinsic value of DSW Cl A - DSW

Previous Close

$25.80

  Intrinsic Value

$19.05

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-26%

Previous close

$25.80

 
Intrinsic value

$19.05

 
Up/down potential

-26%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of DSW stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.90
  3.11
  3.30
  3.47
  3.62
  3.76
  3.88
  4.00
  4.10
  4.19
  4.27
  4.34
  4.41
  4.47
  4.52
  4.57
  4.61
  4.65
  4.68
  4.72
  4.74
  4.77
  4.79
  4.81
  4.83
  4.85
  4.86
  4.88
  4.89
  4.90
Revenue, $m
  2,881
  2,971
  3,069
  3,175
  3,290
  3,414
  3,546
  3,688
  3,839
  4,000
  4,171
  4,352
  4,543
  4,746
  4,961
  5,187
  5,427
  5,679
  5,945
  6,225
  6,521
  6,832
  7,159
  7,504
  7,866
  8,248
  8,649
  9,071
  9,515
  9,981
Variable operating expenses, $m
  2,691
  2,774
  2,866
  2,965
  3,072
  3,188
  3,312
  3,444
  3,585
  3,735
  3,891
  4,060
  4,239
  4,429
  4,629
  4,840
  5,063
  5,299
  5,547
  5,809
  6,084
  6,374
  6,680
  7,002
  7,340
  7,696
  8,070
  8,464
  8,878
  9,313
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,691
  2,774
  2,866
  2,965
  3,072
  3,188
  3,312
  3,444
  3,585
  3,735
  3,891
  4,060
  4,239
  4,429
  4,629
  4,840
  5,063
  5,299
  5,547
  5,809
  6,084
  6,374
  6,680
  7,002
  7,340
  7,696
  8,070
  8,464
  8,878
  9,313
Operating income, $m
  190
  196
  203
  210
  218
  226
  235
  244
  254
  265
  279
  291
  304
  318
  332
  347
  363
  380
  398
  417
  436
  457
  479
  502
  526
  552
  579
  607
  637
  668
EBITDA, $m
  269
  277
  287
  297
  307
  319
  331
  345
  359
  374
  390
  406
  424
  443
  463
  485
  507
  530
  555
  582
  609
  638
  669
  701
  735
  770
  808
  847
  889
  932
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  1
  2
  2
  3
  4
  6
  7
  8
  9
  11
  12
  14
  16
  17
  19
  21
  24
  26
  28
  31
  33
  36
  39
  42
  46
  49
  53
  56
  60
Earnings before tax, $m
  190
  195
  201
  207
  214
  221
  229
  238
  246
  256
  268
  279
  290
  302
  315
  328
  342
  356
  372
  388
  406
  424
  443
  463
  484
  506
  530
  555
  580
  608
Tax expense, $m
  51
  53
  54
  56
  58
  60
  62
  64
  67
  69
  72
  75
  78
  82
  85
  88
  92
  96
  100
  105
  110
  114
  120
  125
  131
  137
  143
  150
  157
  164
Net income, $m
  139
  143
  147
  151
  156
  162
  167
  173
  180
  187
  196
  204
  212
  220
  230
  239
  249
  260
  272
  284
  296
  309
  323
  338
  353
  370
  387
  405
  424
  444

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,462
  1,508
  1,558
  1,612
  1,670
  1,733
  1,800
  1,872
  1,949
  2,030
  2,117
  2,209
  2,306
  2,409
  2,518
  2,633
  2,755
  2,883
  3,018
  3,160
  3,310
  3,468
  3,634
  3,809
  3,993
  4,187
  4,390
  4,605
  4,830
  5,066
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,462
  1,508
  1,558
  1,612
  1,670
  1,733
  1,800
  1,872
  1,949
  2,030
  2,117
  2,209
  2,306
  2,409
  2,518
  2,633
  2,755
  2,883
  3,018
  3,160
  3,310
  3,468
  3,634
  3,809
  3,993
  4,187
  4,390
  4,605
  4,830
  5,066
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.971
  1.970
  1.970
  1.970
  1.970
  1.970
  1.970
  1.970
  1.970
  1.970
  1.970
  1.970
  1.970
  1.970
  1.970
  1.970
  1.970
  1.970
  1.970
  1.970
  1.970
  1.970
  1.970
  1.970
  1.970
  1.970
  1.970
  1.970
  1.970
  1.970
Average production assets, $m
  412
  425
  439
  454
  470
  488
  507
  527
  549
  572
  596
  622
  650
  679
  709
  742
  776
  812
  850
  890
  932
  977
  1,024
  1,073
  1,125
  1,179
  1,237
  1,297
  1,361
  1,427
Working capital, $m
  251
  258
  267
  276
  286
  297
  309
  321
  334
  348
  363
  379
  395
  413
  432
  451
  472
  494
  517
  542
  567
  594
  623
  653
  684
  718
  752
  789
  828
  868
Total debt, $m
  13
  28
  45
  62
  82
  102
  124
  148
  173
  200
  228
  258
  290
  324
  360
  397
  437
  479
  524
  570
  619
  671
  726
  783
  843
  907
  974
  1,044
  1,118
  1,196
Total liabilities, $m
  480
  495
  511
  529
  548
  568
  590
  614
  639
  666
  694
  725
  756
  790
  826
  864
  904
  946
  990
  1,036
  1,086
  1,137
  1,192
  1,249
  1,310
  1,373
  1,440
  1,510
  1,584
  1,662
Total equity, $m
  983
  1,013
  1,047
  1,083
  1,122
  1,164
  1,210
  1,258
  1,310
  1,364
  1,423
  1,484
  1,550
  1,619
  1,692
  1,769
  1,851
  1,937
  2,028
  2,124
  2,224
  2,330
  2,442
  2,560
  2,683
  2,813
  2,950
  3,094
  3,246
  3,405
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,463
  1,508
  1,558
  1,612
  1,670
  1,732
  1,800
  1,872
  1,949
  2,030
  2,117
  2,209
  2,306
  2,409
  2,518
  2,633
  2,755
  2,883
  3,018
  3,160
  3,310
  3,467
  3,634
  3,809
  3,993
  4,186
  4,390
  4,604
  4,830
  5,067
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.010
  0.030
  0.040
  0.060
  0.070
  0.090
  0.100
  0.120
  0.130
  0.150
  0.160
  0.170
  0.190
  0.200
  0.210
  0.220
  0.240
  0.250
  0.260
  0.270
  0.280
  0.290
  0.300
  0.310
  0.310
  0.320
  0.330
  0.340
  0.340
  0.350
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.672
  0.672
  0.672
  0.672
  0.672
  0.672
  0.672
  0.672
  0.672
  0.672
  0.672
  0.672
  0.672
  0.672
  0.672
  0.672
  0.672
  0.672
  0.672
  0.672
  0.672
  0.672
  0.672
  0.672
  0.672
  0.672
  0.672
  0.672
  0.672
  0.672

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  139
  143
  147
  151
  156
  162
  167
  173
  180
  187
  196
  204
  212
  220
  230
  239
  249
  260
  272
  284
  296
  309
  323
  338
  353
  370
  387
  405
  424
  444
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  79
  81
  84
  87
  90
  93
  97
  100
  104
  109
  110
  115
  120
  126
  131
  137
  144
  150
  157
  165
  173
  181
  190
  199
  208
  218
  229
  240
  252
  264
Funds from operations, $m
  218
  224
  231
  238
  246
  255
  264
  274
  284
  295
  306
  319
  332
  346
  361
  377
  393
  411
  429
  448
  469
  490
  513
  537
  562
  588
  616
  645
  676
  708
Change in working capital, $m
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
Cash from operations, $m
  211
  216
  222
  229
  236
  244
  252
  261
  271
  281
  291
  303
  315
  328
  342
  357
  372
  389
  406
  424
  443
  463
  484
  507
  530
  555
  581
  608
  637
  667
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -74
  -76
  -79
  -81
  -84
  -87
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -102
  -106
  -110
  -115
  -120
  -126
  -131
  -137
  -144
  -150
  -157
  -165
  -173
  -181
  -190
  -199
  -208
  -218
  -229
  -240
  -252
New CAPEX, $m
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -67
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -86
  -89
  -93
  -96
  -100
  -105
  -109
  -114
  -120
  -125
  -130
  -136
  -142
  -149
  -157
  -163
  -171
  -180
  -188
  -197
  -207
  -217
  -228
  -239
  -251
  -263
  -275
  -289
  -303
  -319
Free cash flow, $m
  125
  127
  130
  132
  136
  139
  143
  147
  152
  157
  161
  167
  173
  179
  186
  193
  201
  209
  217
  226
  236
  246
  257
  268
  280
  292
  305
  319
  333
  349
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  13
  15
  16
  18
  19
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  47
  49
  52
  55
  57
  60
  64
  67
  70
  74
  78
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  13
  15
  16
  18
  19
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  47
  49
  52
  55
  57
  60
  64
  67
  70
  74
  78
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  138
  142
  146
  150
  155
  160
  165
  171
  177
  183
  190
  197
  205
  213
  222
  231
  241
  251
  262
  273
  285
  298
  311
  325
  340
  356
  372
  389
  407
  426
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -28
  -31
  -33
  -36
  -39
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -62
  -65
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -82
  -86
  -91
  -96
  -101
  -106
  -112
  -118
  -124
  -130
  -137
  -144
  -151
  -159
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  111
  111
  112
  114
  116
  118
  120
  122
  125
  129
  131
  135
  139
  144
  148
  154
  159
  165
  171
  177
  184
  192
  200
  208
  216
  225
  235
  245
  256
  267
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  106
  102
  98
  94
  90
  85
  81
  77
  72
  67
  62
  58
  53
  48
  44
  39
  35
  30
  26
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  8
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Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
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DSW Inc. is a footwear retailer. The Company offers an assortment of brand name dress, casual and athletic footwear and accessories for women, men and kids. The Company operates through two segments: the DSW segment (DSW), which includes DSW stores and dsw.com, and the Affiliated Business Group (ABG) segment. As of January 28, 2017, the Company operated 501 DSW stores, dsw.com and shoe departments in 288 Stein Mart stores and Steinmart.com, 106 Gordmans stores and Gordmans.com, and one Frugal Fannie's store. DSW separates its merchandise into three primary categories: women's footwear; men's footwear, and accessories and other (which includes kids' footwear). Other primarily includes Ebuys and its investment in Town Shoes. The ABG segment partners with three other retailers to help build and optimize their in-store and online footwear businesses.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  DSW Cl A (DSW)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 16.5
Price to Sales 0.8
Price to Book 2.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 9.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 16.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 3.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -15.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 8.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.8%
Return On Total Capital 13.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.3%
Return On Equity 13.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.3%
Asset Turnover 1.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 28.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.3%
EBITDA Margin 10.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.4%
Operating Margin 7.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 7.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.6%
Net Profit Margin 4.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.3%
Effective Tax Rate 38.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 38.8%
Payout Ratio 52%

DSW stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the DSW stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2799.794 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by DSW Cl A. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of DSW Cl A. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our DSW stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for DSW is calculated based on our internal credit rating of DSW Cl A, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of DSW Cl A.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of DSW stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 93.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for DSW stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for DSW Cl A.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for DSW Cl A. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the DSW stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for DSW are equal to 14.3%.

Life of production assets of 5.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in DSW Cl A operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for DSW is equal to 8.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $955.251 million for DSW Cl A - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 72.471 million for DSW Cl A is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of DSW Cl A at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.9 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ DSW Stumbles With Its Camuto Group Acquisition   [Oct-27-18 07:30AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Sears Holdings, DSW fall; Esterline, Imperva rise   [Oct-10-18 04:52PM  Associated Press]
▶ Why Shares of DSW Inc. Slumped Today   [04:30PM  Motley Fool]
▶ DSW acquires footwear designer in $375 million deal   [11:53AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ [$$] Retailer DSW, Authentic Brands Buy Camuto Group   [07:59AM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Bull of the Day: DSW (DSW)   [06:34AM  Zacks]
▶ 3 Dividend Stocks Ideal for Retirees   [Sep-15-18 08:47AM  Motley Fool]
▶ David Einhorn's Winning Stocks in a Down Year   [Sep-12-18 05:38PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ Here's Why DSW (DSW) is a Great Momentum Stock   [Aug-31-18 02:12PM  Zacks]
▶ Should Investors Be Jumping Into a Rising DSW?   [Aug-30-18 11:29AM  Motley Fool]
▶ The Sad Truth About BJ's Wholesale   [Aug-29-18 11:55PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Company News For Aug 29, 2018   [10:25AM  Zacks]
▶ What Happened in the Stock Market Today   [04:50PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Wall Street With Modest Gains Tuesday   [01:41PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ Why Shares of DSW Inc. Popped Today   [12:38PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Why DSW Stock Is Skyrocketing Today   [11:14AM  InvestorPlace]
▶ Data Deluge   [10:37AM  Zacks]
▶ DSW reports strongest quarter in years, 16 percent revenue boost   [10:03AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ [$$] Strong results lift shoe retailer DSW   [08:50AM  Financial Times]
▶ DSW: Fiscal 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [07:13AM  Associated Press]
▶ Shoe 'vending machine' among DSW's Vegas store innovations (slideshow)   [Aug-08-18 01:08PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Is DSW (DSW) a Great Stock for Value Investors?   [Jun-19-18 09:40AM  Zacks]
▶ [$$] Nine West Assets to Be Sold to Authentic Brands for $340 Million   [Jun-11-18 05:04PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ [$$] Schottenstein Lender Offers $12 Million in Exit Financing to A'Gaci   [Jun-06-18 04:05PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Analysts View of Limited Upside for DSW Inc. Looks Right   [Jun-05-18 10:46AM  InvestorPlace]
▶ Why Shares of DSW Inc. Are Slumping Today   [12:56PM  Motley Fool]
▶ DSW CEO: "This is the disruption we need"   [12:30PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Could the Worst Finally Be Over for DSW?   [10:33AM  Motley Fool]

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