Intrinsic value of DaVita Inc. - DVA

Previous Close

$52.07

  Intrinsic Value

$73.65

stock screener

  Rating & Target

buy

+41%

Previous close

$52.07

 
Intrinsic value

$73.65

 
Up/down potential

+41%

 
Rating

buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of DVA stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 8.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  11,633
  11,901
  12,207
  12,550
  12,930
  13,348
  13,802
  14,294
  14,825
  15,394
  16,002
  16,652
  17,343
  18,078
  18,858
  19,684
  20,559
  21,484
  22,462
  23,494
  24,583
  25,731
  26,942
  28,217
  29,560
  30,975
  32,463
  34,030
  35,678
  37,412
Variable operating expenses, $m
  9,676
  9,883
  10,119
  10,384
  10,678
  11,000
  11,351
  11,731
  12,140
  12,579
  12,353
  12,854
  13,388
  13,956
  14,558
  15,196
  15,871
  16,585
  17,340
  18,136
  18,977
  19,864
  20,798
  21,783
  22,820
  23,911
  25,061
  26,270
  27,542
  28,880
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  9,676
  9,883
  10,119
  10,384
  10,678
  11,000
  11,351
  11,731
  12,140
  12,579
  12,353
  12,854
  13,388
  13,956
  14,558
  15,196
  15,871
  16,585
  17,340
  18,136
  18,977
  19,864
  20,798
  21,783
  22,820
  23,911
  25,061
  26,270
  27,542
  28,880
Operating income, $m
  1,957
  2,018
  2,087
  2,166
  2,252
  2,348
  2,451
  2,564
  2,684
  2,814
  3,649
  3,797
  3,955
  4,122
  4,300
  4,489
  4,688
  4,899
  5,122
  5,357
  5,606
  5,868
  6,144
  6,434
  6,741
  7,063
  7,403
  7,760
  8,136
  8,531
EBITDA, $m
  3,052
  3,122
  3,203
  3,293
  3,392
  3,502
  3,621
  3,750
  3,889
  4,039
  4,198
  4,369
  4,550
  4,743
  4,948
  5,164
  5,394
  5,637
  5,893
  6,164
  6,450
  6,751
  7,068
  7,403
  7,756
  8,127
  8,517
  8,928
  9,361
  9,815
Interest expense (income), $m
  407
  546
  562
  581
  603
  628
  656
  687
  720
  756
  794
  836
  880
  928
  978
  1,032
  1,088
  1,149
  1,212
  1,280
  1,351
  1,426
  1,506
  1,589
  1,678
  1,771
  1,869
  1,972
  2,080
  2,194
  2,315
Earnings before tax, $m
  1,411
  1,456
  1,506
  1,562
  1,624
  1,691
  1,765
  1,844
  1,929
  2,020
  2,813
  2,917
  3,027
  3,144
  3,269
  3,400
  3,540
  3,687
  3,842
  4,006
  4,179
  4,362
  4,554
  4,757
  4,970
  5,195
  5,431
  5,680
  5,941
  6,216
Tax expense, $m
  381
  393
  407
  422
  438
  457
  476
  498
  521
  545
  760
  788
  817
  849
  883
  918
  956
  995
  1,037
  1,082
  1,128
  1,178
  1,230
  1,284
  1,342
  1,403
  1,466
  1,534
  1,604
  1,678
Net income, $m
  1,030
  1,063
  1,100
  1,140
  1,186
  1,235
  1,288
  1,346
  1,408
  1,474
  2,054
  2,129
  2,210
  2,295
  2,386
  2,482
  2,584
  2,691
  2,805
  2,925
  3,051
  3,184
  3,325
  3,472
  3,628
  3,792
  3,965
  4,146
  4,337
  4,538

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  19,486
  19,934
  20,446
  21,022
  21,659
  22,358
  23,120
  23,944
  24,832
  25,785
  26,804
  27,892
  29,050
  30,281
  31,588
  32,972
  34,437
  35,987
  37,624
  39,353
  41,177
  43,101
  45,128
  47,265
  49,515
  51,884
  54,378
  57,002
  59,762
  62,666
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  19,486
  19,934
  20,446
  21,022
  21,659
  22,358
  23,120
  23,944
  24,832
  25,785
  26,804
  27,892
  29,050
  30,281
  31,588
  32,972
  34,437
  35,987
  37,624
  39,353
  41,177
  43,101
  45,128
  47,265
  49,515
  51,884
  54,378
  57,002
  59,762
  62,666
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
Average production assets, $m
  6,829
  6,986
  7,165
  7,367
  7,590
  7,835
  8,102
  8,391
  8,702
  9,036
  9,393
  9,775
  10,180
  10,612
  11,070
  11,555
  12,068
  12,611
  13,185
  13,791
  14,430
  15,104
  15,815
  16,563
  17,352
  18,182
  19,056
  19,976
  20,943
  21,961
Working capital, $m
  5,142
  5,260
  5,395
  5,547
  5,715
  5,900
  6,101
  6,318
  6,552
  6,804
  7,073
  7,360
  7,666
  7,990
  8,335
  8,700
  9,087
  9,496
  9,928
  10,384
  10,866
  11,373
  11,908
  12,472
  13,066
  13,691
  14,349
  15,041
  15,770
  16,536
Total debt, $m
  10,401
  10,762
  11,175
  11,639
  12,152
  12,716
  13,330
  13,994
  14,710
  15,478
  16,300
  17,177
  18,110
  19,102
  20,155
  21,271
  22,452
  23,701
  25,020
  26,414
  27,884
  29,435
  31,069
  32,791
  34,604
  36,514
  38,524
  40,639
  42,864
  45,204
Total liabilities, $m
  15,706
  16,067
  16,480
  16,943
  17,457
  18,021
  18,634
  19,299
  20,014
  20,783
  21,604
  22,481
  23,415
  24,407
  25,460
  26,575
  27,756
  29,005
  30,325
  31,718
  33,189
  34,739
  36,373
  38,095
  39,909
  41,819
  43,828
  45,943
  48,168
  50,509
Total equity, $m
  3,780
  3,867
  3,967
  4,078
  4,202
  4,337
  4,485
  4,645
  4,817
  5,002
  5,200
  5,411
  5,636
  5,875
  6,128
  6,397
  6,681
  6,981
  7,299
  7,634
  7,988
  8,362
  8,755
  9,169
  9,606
  10,066
  10,549
  11,058
  11,594
  12,157
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  19,486
  19,934
  20,447
  21,021
  21,659
  22,358
  23,119
  23,944
  24,831
  25,785
  26,804
  27,892
  29,051
  30,282
  31,588
  32,972
  34,437
  35,986
  37,624
  39,352
  41,177
  43,101
  45,128
  47,264
  49,515
  51,885
  54,377
  57,001
  59,762
  62,666
Debt-to-equity ratio
  2.750
  2.780
  2.820
  2.850
  2.890
  2.930
  2.970
  3.010
  3.050
  3.090
  3.130
  3.170
  3.210
  3.250
  3.290
  3.330
  3.360
  3.390
  3.430
  3.460
  3.490
  3.520
  3.550
  3.580
  3.600
  3.630
  3.650
  3.670
  3.700
  3.720
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.194
  0.194
  0.194
  0.194
  0.194
  0.194
  0.194
  0.194
  0.194
  0.194
  0.194
  0.194
  0.194
  0.194
  0.194
  0.194
  0.194
  0.194
  0.194
  0.194
  0.194
  0.194
  0.194
  0.194
  0.194
  0.194
  0.194
  0.194
  0.194
  0.194

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  1,030
  1,063
  1,100
  1,140
  1,186
  1,235
  1,288
  1,346
  1,408
  1,474
  2,054
  2,129
  2,210
  2,295
  2,386
  2,482
  2,584
  2,691
  2,805
  2,925
  3,051
  3,184
  3,325
  3,472
  3,628
  3,792
  3,965
  4,146
  4,337
  4,538
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  1,095
  1,105
  1,115
  1,127
  1,140
  1,154
  1,170
  1,187
  1,205
  1,225
  549
  572
  595
  621
  647
  676
  706
  737
  771
  806
  844
  883
  925
  969
  1,015
  1,063
  1,114
  1,168
  1,225
  1,284
Funds from operations, $m
  2,126
  2,168
  2,215
  2,267
  2,325
  2,389
  2,458
  2,533
  2,613
  2,699
  2,603
  2,701
  2,805
  2,916
  3,034
  3,158
  3,290
  3,429
  3,576
  3,731
  3,895
  4,067
  4,249
  4,441
  4,643
  4,855
  5,079
  5,314
  5,562
  5,822
Change in working capital, $m
  101
  118
  135
  152
  168
  185
  201
  217
  234
  251
  269
  287
  306
  325
  345
  365
  387
  409
  432
  456
  481
  508
  535
  564
  594
  625
  658
  692
  728
  766
Cash from operations, $m
  2,025
  2,049
  2,079
  2,116
  2,157
  2,205
  2,257
  2,315
  2,379
  2,448
  2,334
  2,414
  2,500
  2,591
  2,689
  2,793
  2,903
  3,020
  3,144
  3,275
  3,413
  3,560
  3,714
  3,877
  4,049
  4,230
  4,421
  4,622
  4,833
  5,056
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -391
  -399
  -409
  -419
  -431
  -444
  -458
  -474
  -491
  -509
  -528
  -549
  -572
  -595
  -621
  -647
  -676
  -706
  -737
  -771
  -806
  -844
  -883
  -925
  -969
  -1,015
  -1,063
  -1,114
  -1,168
  -1,225
New CAPEX, $m
  -136
  -157
  -180
  -202
  -223
  -245
  -267
  -289
  -311
  -334
  -357
  -381
  -406
  -431
  -458
  -485
  -514
  -543
  -574
  -606
  -639
  -674
  -711
  -749
  -789
  -830
  -874
  -920
  -967
  -1,018
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -527
  -556
  -589
  -621
  -654
  -689
  -725
  -763
  -802
  -843
  -885
  -930
  -978
  -1,026
  -1,079
  -1,132
  -1,190
  -1,249
  -1,311
  -1,377
  -1,445
  -1,518
  -1,594
  -1,674
  -1,758
  -1,845
  -1,937
  -2,034
  -2,135
  -2,243
Free cash flow, $m
  1,497
  1,493
  1,491
  1,495
  1,503
  1,516
  1,532
  1,553
  1,577
  1,605
  1,448
  1,483
  1,522
  1,564
  1,610
  1,660
  1,714
  1,771
  1,833
  1,898
  1,968
  2,042
  2,120
  2,204
  2,292
  2,385
  2,484
  2,588
  2,698
  2,814
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  299
  361
  413
  464
  514
  564
  614
  664
  716
  768
  822
  877
  934
  992
  1,053
  1,116
  1,181
  1,249
  1,320
  1,393
  1,470
  1,550
  1,634
  1,722
  1,814
  1,910
  2,010
  2,115
  2,225
  2,340
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  299
  361
  413
  464
  514
  564
  614
  664
  716
  768
  822
  877
  934
  992
  1,053
  1,116
  1,181
  1,249
  1,320
  1,393
  1,470
  1,550
  1,634
  1,722
  1,814
  1,910
  2,010
  2,115
  2,225
  2,340
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  1,796
  1,854
  1,904
  1,959
  2,017
  2,079
  2,146
  2,217
  2,292
  2,373
  2,270
  2,360
  2,456
  2,557
  2,663
  2,776
  2,895
  3,020
  3,152
  3,291
  3,438
  3,592
  3,755
  3,926
  4,106
  4,295
  4,494
  4,703
  4,923
  5,154
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -77
  -87
  -99
  -112
  -124
  -136
  -148
  -160
  -172
  -185
  -198
  -211
  -225
  -239
  -253
  -269
  -284
  -301
  -318
  -335
  -354
  -373
  -393
  -414
  -437
  -460
  -484
  -509
  -536
  -563
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  1,719
  1,767
  1,805
  1,847
  1,893
  1,944
  1,998
  2,057
  2,120
  2,188
  2,072
  2,149
  2,231
  2,318
  2,410
  2,507
  2,611
  2,719
  2,835
  2,956
  3,084
  3,219
  3,361
  3,511
  3,669
  3,835
  4,010
  4,194
  4,387
  4,591
Discount rate, %
  9.70
  10.19
  10.69
  11.23
  11.79
  12.38
  13.00
  13.65
  14.33
  15.05
  15.80
  16.59
  17.42
  18.29
  19.21
  20.17
  21.17
  22.23
  23.34
  24.51
  25.74
  27.02
  28.38
  29.79
  31.28
  32.85
  34.49
  36.21
  38.03
  39.93
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  1,567
  1,456
  1,331
  1,207
  1,084
  965
  849
  739
  635
  539
  413
  341
  277
  221
  173
  133
  100
  73
  53
  37
  25
  17
  11
  7
  4
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

DaVita Inc., formerly DaVita HealthCare Partners Inc., operates two divisions: DaVita Kidney Care (Kidney Care) and DaVita Medical Group (DMG). The Kidney Care division consists of its the United States dialysis and related lab services, its ancillary services and strategic initiatives, including its international operations, and its corporate administrative support. Its DMG division is a patient- and physician-focused integrated healthcare delivery and management company that provides medical services to members through capitation contracts. Its segments include U.S. dialysis and related lab services, DMG, and Other-Ancillary services and strategic initiatives. Its U.S. dialysis and related lab services line of business provide kidney dialysis services in the United States for patients suffering from chronic kidney failure, also known as end stage renal disease (ESRD). As of December 31, 2016, it had operated or provided administrative services to 154 outpatient dialysis centers.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  DaVita Inc. (DVA)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 11.5
Price to Sales 0.7
Price to Book 2.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 5.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 8.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 17.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 6.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 7
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 192.5%
Total Debt to Equity 196%
Interest Coverage 5
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 6.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.9%
Return On Total Capital 6.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.6%
Return On Equity 18.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 13%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 27.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 28.4%
EBITDA Margin 17.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.1%
Operating Margin 12.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 10.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.5%
Net Profit Margin 6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.5%
Effective Tax Rate 30.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 35.2%
Payout Ratio 0%

DVA stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the DVA stock intrinsic value calculation we used $11405 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by DaVita Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of DaVita Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our DVA stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 9.7%, whose default value for DVA is calculated based on our internal credit rating of DaVita Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of DaVita Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of DVA stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 83.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for DVA stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for DaVita Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for DaVita Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the DVA stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for DVA are equal to 58.7%.

Life of production assets of 17.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in DaVita Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for DVA is equal to 44.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $3703.442 million for DaVita Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 166.449 million for DaVita Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of DaVita Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $8.7 billion.

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