Intrinsic value of Diversicare Healthcare Services - DVCR

Previous Close

$10.70

  Intrinsic Value

$69.39

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  Rating & Target

str. buy

+549%

Previous close

$10.70

 
Intrinsic value

$69.39

 
Up/down potential

+549%

 
Rating

str. buy

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of DVCR stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  9.79
  49.00
  44.60
  40.64
  37.08
  33.87
  30.98
  28.38
  26.05
  23.94
  22.05
  20.34
  18.81
  17.43
  16.18
  15.07
  14.06
  13.15
  12.34
  11.60
  10.94
  10.35
  9.81
  9.33
  8.90
  8.51
  8.16
  7.84
  7.56
  7.30
  7.07
Revenue, $m
  426
  635
  918
  1,291
  1,769
  2,369
  3,103
  3,983
  5,021
  6,223
  7,594
  9,139
  10,858
  12,750
  14,814
  17,046
  19,442
  22,000
  24,714
  27,582
  30,600
  33,767
  37,081
  40,542
  44,150
  47,907
  51,816
  55,880
  60,103
  64,493
  69,054
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  621
  899
  1,264
  1,732
  2,319
  3,037
  3,900
  4,915
  6,092
  7,435
  8,947
  10,630
  12,483
  14,503
  16,688
  19,034
  21,538
  24,195
  27,003
  29,958
  33,058
  36,303
  39,691
  43,223
  46,901
  50,728
  54,706
  58,841
  63,138
  67,604
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  426
  621
  899
  1,264
  1,732
  2,319
  3,037
  3,900
  4,915
  6,092
  7,435
  8,947
  10,630
  12,483
  14,503
  16,688
  19,034
  21,538
  24,195
  27,003
  29,958
  33,058
  36,303
  39,691
  43,223
  46,901
  50,728
  54,706
  58,841
  63,138
  67,604
Operating income, $m
  0
  13
  19
  27
  37
  50
  65
  84
  105
  131
  159
  192
  228
  268
  311
  358
  408
  462
  519
  579
  643
  709
  779
  851
  927
  1,006
  1,088
  1,173
  1,262
  1,354
  1,450
EBITDA, $m
  8
  25
  36
  51
  70
  94
  123
  158
  199
  247
  302
  363
  431
  507
  589
  677
  773
  874
  982
  1,096
  1,216
  1,342
  1,473
  1,611
  1,754
  1,904
  2,059
  2,220
  2,388
  2,563
  2,744
Interest expense (income), $m
  4
  4
  8
  13
  21
  30
  41
  55
  72
  92
  115
  141
  171
  204
  240
  280
  322
  368
  417
  469
  524
  582
  643
  706
  772
  841
  913
  988
  1,066
  1,147
  1,231
Earnings before tax, $m
  -3
  9
  11
  14
  17
  20
  24
  28
  33
  39
  44
  51
  57
  64
  71
  78
  86
  94
  102
  110
  119
  127
  136
  145
  155
  165
  175
  185
  196
  208
  219
Tax expense, $m
  -1
  2
  3
  4
  4
  5
  6
  8
  9
  10
  12
  14
  15
  17
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  30
  32
  34
  37
  39
  42
  44
  47
  50
  53
  56
  59
Net income, $m
  -2
  7
  8
  10
  12
  15
  17
  21
  24
  28
  32
  37
  42
  47
  52
  57
  63
  68
  74
  80
  87
  93
  99
  106
  113
  120
  128
  135
  143
  151
  160

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  163
  237
  343
  482
  660
  884
  1,158
  1,487
  1,874
  2,323
  2,835
  3,411
  4,053
  4,759
  5,530
  6,363
  7,257
  8,212
  9,225
  10,296
  11,422
  12,604
  13,841
  15,133
  16,480
  17,883
  19,342
  20,858
  22,435
  24,073
  25,776
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  159
  237
  343
  482
  660
  884
  1,158
  1,487
  1,874
  2,323
  2,835
  3,411
  4,053
  4,759
  5,530
  6,363
  7,257
  8,212
  9,225
  10,296
  11,422
  12,604
  13,841
  15,133
  16,480
  17,883
  19,342
  20,858
  22,435
  24,073
  25,776
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.679
  2.679
  2.676
  2.678
  2.680
  2.680
  2.680
  2.679
  2.679
  2.679
  2.679
  2.679
  2.679
  2.679
  2.679
  2.679
  2.679
  2.679
  2.679
  2.679
  2.679
  2.679
  2.679
  2.679
  2.679
  2.679
  2.679
  2.679
  2.679
  2.679
  2.679
Average production assets, $m
  63
  94
  136
  191
  262
  351
  459
  590
  743
  921
  1,124
  1,353
  1,607
  1,887
  2,192
  2,523
  2,877
  3,256
  3,658
  4,082
  4,529
  4,998
  5,488
  6,000
  6,534
  7,090
  7,669
  8,270
  8,895
  9,545
  10,220
Working capital, $m
  21
  37
  54
  76
  104
  140
  183
  235
  296
  367
  448
  539
  641
  752
  874
  1,006
  1,147
  1,298
  1,458
  1,627
  1,805
  1,992
  2,188
  2,392
  2,605
  2,827
  3,057
  3,297
  3,546
  3,805
  4,074
Total debt, $m
  80
  141
  236
  362
  522
  724
  970
  1,266
  1,615
  2,018
  2,479
  2,998
  3,576
  4,211
  4,905
  5,654
  6,460
  7,319
  8,231
  9,194
  10,208
  11,272
  12,385
  13,548
  14,760
  16,022
  17,335
  18,701
  20,120
  21,594
  23,126
Total liabilities, $m
  152
  213
  308
  434
  594
  796
  1,042
  1,338
  1,687
  2,090
  2,551
  3,070
  3,648
  4,283
  4,977
  5,726
  6,532
  7,391
  8,303
  9,266
  10,280
  11,344
  12,457
  13,620
  14,832
  16,094
  17,407
  18,773
  20,192
  21,666
  23,198
Total equity, $m
  11
  24
  34
  48
  66
  88
  116
  149
  187
  232
  283
  341
  405
  476
  553
  636
  726
  821
  923
  1,030
  1,142
  1,260
  1,384
  1,513
  1,648
  1,788
  1,934
  2,086
  2,244
  2,407
  2,578
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  163
  237
  342
  482
  660
  884
  1,158
  1,487
  1,874
  2,322
  2,834
  3,411
  4,053
  4,759
  5,530
  6,362
  7,258
  8,212
  9,226
  10,296
  11,422
  12,604
  13,841
  15,133
  16,480
  17,882
  19,341
  20,859
  22,436
  24,073
  25,776
Debt-to-equity ratio
  7.273
  5.960
  6.900
  7.510
  7.910
  8.190
  8.380
  8.520
  8.620
  8.690
  8.750
  8.790
  8.820
  8.850
  8.870
  8.890
  8.900
  8.910
  8.920
  8.930
  8.940
  8.940
  8.950
  8.950
  8.960
  8.960
  8.960
  8.970
  8.970
  8.970
  8.970
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.044
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -2
  7
  8
  10
  12
  15
  17
  21
  24
  28
  32
  37
  42
  47
  52
  57
  63
  68
  74
  80
  87
  93
  99
  106
  113
  120
  128
  135
  143
  151
  160
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  8
  12
  17
  24
  33
  44
  58
  75
  94
  117
  142
  171
  203
  239
  278
  319
  364
  412
  463
  517
  573
  633
  695
  760
  827
  898
  971
  1,047
  1,126
  1,208
  1,294
Funds from operations, $m
  -23
  18
  25
  34
  45
  59
  76
  95
  118
  145
  175
  208
  245
  286
  329
  377
  427
  481
  537
  597
  660
  725
  794
  866
  940
  1,018
  1,098
  1,182
  1,269
  1,360
  1,454
Change in working capital, $m
  -17
  12
  17
  22
  28
  35
  43
  52
  61
  71
  81
  91
  101
  112
  122
  132
  141
  151
  160
  169
  178
  187
  196
  204
  213
  222
  231
  240
  249
  259
  269
Cash from operations, $m
  -6
  6
  9
  12
  17
  24
  32
  43
  57
  74
  94
  117
  144
  174
  208
  245
  286
  330
  377
  428
  482
  539
  599
  661
  727
  796
  868
  942
  1,020
  1,101
  1,185
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -8
  -12
  -17
  -24
  -33
  -44
  -58
  -75
  -94
  -117
  -142
  -171
  -203
  -239
  -278
  -319
  -364
  -412
  -463
  -517
  -573
  -633
  -695
  -760
  -827
  -898
  -971
  -1,047
  -1,126
  -1,208
New CAPEX, $m
  -14
  -31
  -42
  -55
  -71
  -89
  -109
  -130
  -154
  -178
  -203
  -229
  -254
  -280
  -305
  -330
  -355
  -378
  -402
  -424
  -447
  -469
  -490
  -512
  -534
  -556
  -578
  -601
  -625
  -650
  -675
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -10
  -39
  -54
  -72
  -95
  -122
  -153
  -188
  -229
  -272
  -320
  -371
  -425
  -483
  -544
  -608
  -674
  -742
  -814
  -887
  -964
  -1,042
  -1,123
  -1,207
  -1,294
  -1,383
  -1,476
  -1,572
  -1,672
  -1,776
  -1,883
Free cash flow, $m
  -16
  -33
  -45
  -60
  -78
  -98
  -121
  -145
  -171
  -198
  -226
  -254
  -282
  -310
  -337
  -363
  -388
  -413
  -437
  -460
  -482
  -503
  -524
  -545
  -566
  -587
  -608
  -630
  -652
  -675
  -699
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  19
  65
  95
  125
  161
  201
  247
  296
  349
  404
  461
  519
  577
  636
  693
  750
  805
  859
  912
  963
  1,014
  1,064
  1,113
  1,163
  1,212
  1,262
  1,313
  1,365
  1,419
  1,475
  1,532
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  6
  2
  4
  6
  8
  10
  12
  14
  17
  19
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  27
  27
  27
  27
  26
  25
  24
  23
  22
  20
  18
  16
  14
  12
  10
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  16
  71
  97
  129
  167
  209
  257
  308
  363
  421
  480
  540
  599
  660
  718
  776
  832
  886
  939
  990
  1,040
  1,089
  1,137
  1,186
  1,234
  1,282
  1,331
  1,381
  1,433
  1,487
  1,542
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  1
  39
  52
  69
  89
  111
  136
  163
  192
  222
  254
  286
  318
  350
  382
  413
  443
  473
  502
  531
  558
  586
  613
  640
  668
  695
  723
  752
  781
  812
  844
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  2
  -13
  -11
  -14
  -18
  -22
  -27
  -33
  -39
  -45
  -51
  -58
  -64
  -71
  -77
  -83
  -89
  -95
  -101
  -107
  -113
  -118
  -124
  -129
  -135
  -140
  -146
  -152
  -158
  -164
  -170
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  26
  42
  55
  71
  89
  108
  130
  153
  178
  203
  228
  254
  279
  305
  330
  354
  378
  401
  424
  446
  468
  489
  511
  533
  555
  577
  600
  624
  648
  674
Discount rate, %
 
  11.90
  12.50
  13.12
  13.78
  14.46
  15.19
  15.95
  16.74
  17.58
  18.46
  19.38
  20.35
  21.37
  22.44
  23.56
  24.74
  25.98
  27.28
  28.64
  30.07
  31.57
  33.15
  34.81
  36.55
  38.38
  40.30
  42.31
  44.43
  46.65
  48.98
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  23
  33
  38
  42
  45
  46
  46
  44
  41
  37
  32
  27
  23
  18
  14
  10
  7
  5
  4
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  91.9
  90.4
  88.8
  87.1
  85.5
  84.0
  82.6
  81.4
  80.2
  79.2
  78.3
  77.5
  76.8
  76.1
  75.6
  75.1
  74.6
  74.2
  73.9
  73.6
  73.3
  73.1
  72.9
  72.7
  72.6
  72.5
  72.4
  72.3
  72.2
  72.2

Diversicare Healthcare Services, Inc. provides post-acute care services to nursing center patients and residents in approximately nine states, primarily in the Southeast and the Southwest United States. The Company's post-acute care services to patients and residents include skilled nursing, ancillary healthcare services and assisted living. In addition to the nursing, personal care and social services that are provided in long-term care centers, the Company offers a range of rehabilitative, respiratory and other ancillary services. The Company operates 77 skilled nursing and long-term care facilities containing 8,556 skilled nursing beds. The Company's nursing centers range in size from 48 to 320 licensed nursing beds. The nursing centers provide nursing healthcare services, including nutrition services, recreational therapy, social services and laundry services. The Company operates in Alabama, Florida, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Missouri, Ohio, Tennessee and Texas.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Diversicare Healthcare Services (DVCR)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -34
Price to Sales 0.2
Price to Book 6.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -11.3
Price to Free Cash Flow -3.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 9.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -12.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -6.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 654.5%
Total Debt to Equity 727.3%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3%
Return On Total Capital -2.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.9%
Return On Equity -16.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.1%
Asset Turnover 2.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 19.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.8%
EBITDA Margin 2.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.2%
Operating Margin 0%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.3%
Pre-Tax Margin -0.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.3%
Net Profit Margin -0.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.5%
Effective Tax Rate 33.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.1%
Payout Ratio -50%

DVCR stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the DVCR stock intrinsic value calculation we used $426 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Diversicare Healthcare Services. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Diversicare Healthcare Services. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our DVCR stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 49% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 11.9%, whose default value for DVCR is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Diversicare Healthcare Services, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Diversicare Healthcare Services.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of DVCR stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 97.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for DVCR stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.7% for Diversicare Healthcare Services.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Diversicare Healthcare Services. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the DVCR stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for DVCR are equal to 14.8%.

Life of production assets of 7.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Diversicare Healthcare Services operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for DVCR is equal to 5.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $11 million for Diversicare Healthcare Services - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 6.459 million for Diversicare Healthcare Services is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Diversicare Healthcare Services at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ 6 High-Yield Stocks With Declining Prices   [Dec-11-17 02:39PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ Diversicare Healthcare reports 3Q loss   [Nov-06-17 05:37AM  Associated Press]
▶ Diversicare Announces 2017 Third Quarter Results   [Nov-02-17 04:05PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Diversicare Healthcare posts 2Q profit   [Aug-05-17 01:10AM  Associated Press]
▶ Diversicare Announces 2017 Second Quarter Results   [Aug-03-17 04:05PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Diversicare Healthcare posts 1Q profit   [May-04-17 07:57PM  Associated Press]
▶ Diversicare Healthcare posts 4Q profit   [Mar-02-17 04:40PM  Associated Press]
▶ Diversicare Acquires 12 Facilities in Alabama   [Nov-01-16 04:05PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Diversicare Acquires 10 Facilities in Mississippi   [Oct-03-16 09:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Diversicare Announces 2015 Third Quarter Results   [Nov-05  04:42PM  GlobeNewswire]
Financial statements of DVCR
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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