Intrinsic value of Datawatch - DWCH

Previous Close

$13.07

  Intrinsic Value

$0.47

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-96%

Previous close

$13.07

 
Intrinsic value

$0.47

 
Up/down potential

-96%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of DWCH stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  22.50
  20.75
  19.18
  17.76
  16.48
  15.33
  14.30
  13.37
  12.53
  11.78
  11.10
  10.49
  9.94
  9.45
  9.00
  8.60
  8.24
  7.92
  7.63
  7.36
  7.13
  6.91
  6.72
  6.55
  6.40
  6.26
  6.13
  6.02
  5.92
  5.82
Revenue, $m
  44
  54
  64
  75
  88
  101
  116
  131
  147
  165
  183
  202
  222
  243
  265
  288
  312
  337
  362
  389
  417
  446
  476
  507
  539
  573
  608
  645
  683
  723
Variable operating expenses, $m
  64
  77
  92
  108
  125
  145
  165
  187
  210
  235
  260
  287
  316
  346
  377
  409
  443
  478
  515
  553
  592
  633
  676
  720
  766
  814
  864
  916
  970
  1,026
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  64
  77
  92
  108
  125
  145
  165
  187
  210
  235
  260
  287
  316
  346
  377
  409
  443
  478
  515
  553
  592
  633
  676
  720
  766
  814
  864
  916
  970
  1,026
Operating income, $m
  -20
  -23
  -28
  -33
  -38
  -43
  -49
  -56
  -63
  -70
  -77
  -85
  -94
  -102
  -112
  -121
  -131
  -142
  -152
  -164
  -175
  -187
  -200
  -213
  -227
  -241
  -256
  -271
  -287
  -304
EBITDA, $m
  -18
  -21
  -25
  -30
  -35
  -40
  -46
  -52
  -58
  -65
  -72
  -80
  -88
  -96
  -105
  -114
  -123
  -133
  -143
  -154
  -165
  -176
  -188
  -200
  -213
  -226
  -240
  -255
  -270
  -286
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
Earnings before tax, $m
  -20
  -24
  -28
  -33
  -39
  -45
  -51
  -58
  -65
  -73
  -80
  -89
  -98
  -107
  -117
  -127
  -138
  -149
  -160
  -172
  -185
  -198
  -211
  -225
  -239
  -254
  -270
  -286
  -303
  -321
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -20
  -24
  -28
  -33
  -39
  -45
  -51
  -58
  -65
  -73
  -80
  -89
  -98
  -107
  -117
  -127
  -138
  -149
  -160
  -172
  -185
  -198
  -211
  -225
  -239
  -254
  -270
  -286
  -303
  -321

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  46
  55
  66
  78
  90
  104
  119
  135
  152
  170
  189
  209
  230
  251
  274
  297
  322
  347
  374
  402
  430
  460
  491
  523
  556
  591
  627
  665
  705
  746
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  46
  55
  66
  78
  90
  104
  119
  135
  152
  170
  189
  209
  230
  251
  274
  297
  322
  347
  374
  402
  430
  460
  491
  523
  556
  591
  627
  665
  705
  746
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.957
  0.982
  0.970
  0.962
  0.978
  0.971
  0.975
  0.970
  0.967
  0.971
  0.968
  0.967
  0.965
  0.968
  0.967
  0.970
  0.969
  0.971
  0.968
  0.968
  0.970
  0.970
  0.969
  0.969
  0.969
  0.970
  0.970
  0.970
  0.969
  0.969
Average production assets, $m
  7
  9
  10
  12
  14
  16
  18
  21
  23
  26
  29
  32
  35
  39
  42
  46
  50
  54
  58
  62
  66
  71
  76
  81
  86
  91
  97
  102
  109
  115
Working capital, $m
  -9
  -11
  -13
  -15
  -17
  -20
  -23
  -26
  -29
  -32
  -36
  -40
  -44
  -48
  -52
  -57
  -61
  -66
  -71
  -77
  -82
  -88
  -94
  -100
  -106
  -113
  -120
  -127
  -135
  -142
Total debt, $m
  4
  9
  14
  19
  26
  32
  40
  47
  55
  64
  73
  83
  93
  103
  114
  125
  137
  149
  162
  175
  189
  203
  218
  234
  250
  267
  284
  302
  321
  341
Total liabilities, $m
  22
  27
  32
  37
  44
  50
  57
  65
  73
  82
  91
  100
  110
  121
  132
  143
  155
  167
  180
  193
  207
  221
  236
  252
  268
  284
  302
  320
  339
  359
Total equity, $m
  24
  29
  34
  40
  47
  54
  62
  70
  79
  88
  98
  108
  119
  130
  142
  154
  167
  180
  194
  208
  223
  239
  255
  271
  289
  307
  326
  345
  366
  387
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  46
  56
  66
  77
  91
  104
  119
  135
  152
  170
  189
  208
  229
  251
  274
  297
  322
  347
  374
  401
  430
  460
  491
  523
  557
  591
  628
  665
  705
  746
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.180
  0.300
  0.400
  0.480
  0.550
  0.600
  0.640
  0.670
  0.700
  0.720
  0.740
  0.760
  0.780
  0.790
  0.800
  0.810
  0.820
  0.830
  0.830
  0.840
  0.850
  0.850
  0.860
  0.860
  0.860
  0.870
  0.870
  0.880
  0.880
  0.880
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -20
  -24
  -28
  -33
  -39
  -45
  -51
  -58
  -65
  -73
  -80
  -89
  -98
  -107
  -117
  -127
  -138
  -149
  -160
  -172
  -185
  -198
  -211
  -225
  -239
  -254
  -270
  -286
  -303
  -321
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
Funds from operations, $m
  -18
  -21
  -26
  -30
  -36
  -41
  -47
  -54
  -61
  -68
  -76
  -84
  -92
  -101
  -110
  -120
  -130
  -140
  -151
  -163
  -174
  -186
  -199
  -212
  -226
  -240
  -255
  -270
  -286
  -303
Change in working capital, $m
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
Cash from operations, $m
  -16
  -20
  -24
  -28
  -33
  -39
  -45
  -51
  -58
  -65
  -72
  -80
  -88
  -97
  -106
  -116
  -125
  -136
  -146
  -157
  -169
  -181
  -193
  -206
  -219
  -233
  -248
  -263
  -279
  -295
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
New CAPEX, $m
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
Free cash flow, $m
  -18
  -22
  -27
  -32
  -37
  -43
  -49
  -56
  -64
  -71
  -79
  -88
  -97
  -106
  -116
  -126
  -136
  -147
  -159
  -171
  -183
  -196
  -209
  -223
  -237
  -252
  -268
  -284
  -301
  -319
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  24
  29
  34
  39
  45
  52
  59
  66
  74
  82
  90
  99
  109
  119
  129
  140
  151
  162
  174
  187
  200
  213
  227
  242
  257
  272
  289
  306
  324
  342
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  28
  34
  39
  45
  51
  59
  66
  74
  82
  91
  99
  109
  119
  129
  140
  151
  163
  174
  187
  200
  214
  227
  242
  257
  273
  289
  306
  324
  343
  362
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -24
  -29
  -34
  -39
  -45
  -52
  -59
  -66
  -74
  -82
  -90
  -99
  -109
  -119
  -129
  -140
  -151
  -162
  -174
  -187
  -200
  -213
  -227
  -242
  -257
  -272
  -289
  -306
  -324
  -342
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  13
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -1
  -18
  -22
  -26
  -31
  -36
  -42
  -49
  -55
  -63
  -70
  -78
  -87
  -96
  -105
  -115
  -125
  -135
  -146
  -157
  -169
  -181
  -194
  -207
  -221
  -235
  -250
  -266
  -282
  -299
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -1
  -16
  -19
  -21
  -24
  -26
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -33
  -33
  -33
  -32
  -31
  -29
  -27
  -25
  -22
  -20
  -18
  -15
  -13
  -11
  -9
  -7
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  80.4
  65.1
  53.0
  43.2
  35.4
  29.1
  24.0
  19.9
  16.5
  13.7
  11.4
  9.5
  8.0
  6.7
  5.6
  4.7
  3.9
  3.3
  2.8
  2.3
  2.0
  1.7
  1.4
  1.2
  1.0
  0.8
  0.7
  0.6
  0.5
  0.4

Datawatch Corporation is engaged in the design, development, marketing, distribution and support of business computer software primarily for the self-service data preparation and visual data discovery markets. The Company also provides services, including implementation and support of its software products, as well as training on their use and administration. The Company's product family includes Datawatch Monarch, Datawatch Panopticon and Datawatch Report Mining Server (RMS). The Company offers its enterprise products through perpetual licenses and subscription pricing models. The Company also offers educational services for customers and partners implementing and learning about the platform, maintenance and support, and professional services to provide in-depth technical assistance for software implementations. The Company offers an array of live and virtual classroom instruction, including private onsite classes.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Datawatch (DWCH)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -40.1
Price to Sales 4.5
Price to Book 4.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 80.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 80.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 20%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -100%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -100%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -8.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -32.5%
Return On Total Capital -11.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -40.8%
Return On Equity -11.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -40.8%
Asset Turnover 0.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 88.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 84.1%
EBITDA Margin -5.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -68.5%
Operating Margin -13.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -79.1%
Pre-Tax Margin -11.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -77%
Net Profit Margin -11.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -75.9%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -3.2%
Payout Ratio 0%

DWCH stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the DWCH stock intrinsic value calculation we used $36.263 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Datawatch. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Datawatch. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our DWCH stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 22.5% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for DWCH is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Datawatch, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Datawatch.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of DWCH stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 144.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for DWCH stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Datawatch.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Datawatch. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the DWCH stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for DWCH are equal to 15.9%.

Life of production assets of 6.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Datawatch operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for DWCH is equal to -19.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $32.529 million for Datawatch - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 12.733 million for Datawatch is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Datawatch at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ [$$] FirstFT: Todays top stories   [07:53AM  Financial Times]
▶ [$$] FirstFT: Todays top stories   [Oct-31-18 08:34AM  Financial Times]
▶ Datawatch's Future Value   [Sep-27-18 12:55PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ Datawatch Panopticon Joins Confluent Partner Program   [Sep-05-18 10:09AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Datawatch: Fiscal 3Q Earnings Snapshot   [Jul-18-18 04:26PM  Associated Press]
▶ Bedford campus home to iRobot headquarters sells for $108M   [Jul-10-18 12:46PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Datawatch To Participate in Upcoming Investor Conferences   [May-10-18 04:05PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ [$$] Correction: UK housing market graphic   [May-06-18 07:14AM  Financial Times]
▶ Datawatch: Fiscal 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [Apr-25-18 05:33PM  Associated Press]
▶ [$$] Datawatch Buys Angoss Software for $24.5 Million   [Jan-30-18 05:30PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Datawatch reports 1Q loss   [Jan-25-18 04:11PM  Associated Press]
▶ Deals of the day-Mergers and acquisitions   [Jan-04-18 04:42PM  Reuters]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Datawatch Corp. : January 1, 2018   [Jan-01-18 11:33AM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Datawatch Corp. : December 19, 2017   [Dec-19-17 12:48PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Datawatch Corp. : December 7, 2017   [Dec-07-17 01:33PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Datawatch Corp. : November 27, 2017   [Nov-27-17 01:13PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Datawatch reports 4Q loss   [Nov-01-17 06:55PM  Associated Press]
▶ 5 Breakout Stocks Offering Astounding Returns   [Sep-08-17 09:20AM  Zacks]
▶ Datawatch To Participate in Upcoming Investor Conferences   [Jul-24-17 09:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Datawatch reports 3Q loss   [Jul-19-17 09:27PM  Associated Press]
▶ [$$] Redeploy Germany's surplus to boost the bloc   [May-22-17 05:59PM  Financial Times]
▶ Datawatch To Participate in Upcoming Investor Conferences   [May-10-17 08:56AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Datawatch Corp. : May 2, 2017   [May-02-17 03:57PM  Capital Cube]

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